Lion of the Blogosphere

Huge win for Trump in Staten Island!

I previously predicted that Staten Island would be Trump’s biggest county and win 80% of the vote.

So how did that pan out? Staten Island was indeed Trump’s biggest county and he won 82% of the vote, surpassing even my projection (which some people thought was far out in left field). I know Staten Island.

* * *

Trump also has done pretty well in the rest of New York State, winning more than 50% in the vast majority of counties. It’s not clear if Trump won every single delegate, but it looks like I was short on my prediction of Trump winning only 82 of 95 delegates. It looks more likely that Trump wins 92 or 93 delegates.

The only county that Trump actually lost is New York County (also known as Manhattan), but because Manhattan is not its own CD but is gerrymandered into four parts, each sharing territory with the outer boroughs, I think that Trump wins more than 50% in every New York City CD and wins every delegate [sorry was wrong about that].

* * *


I found the official New York State election site.

Kasich will win TWO delegates from the following CD:

12 (includes the east side of Manhattan)

Kasich will win one delegate from the following CDs:

10 (my district which includes the west side of Manhattan)
24 (areas around Syracuse)

Too close to call:

13 (includes northern Manhattan and the west side of the Bronx which includes the exclusive Riverdale area of the Bronx)
20 (the Albany/Troy/Schenectady tri-city area also known locally as the Capital District)

So Trump wins at least 89 delegates and may win as many as 91 delegates.
Kasich wins between 4 and 6 delegates

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 19, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

8 Responses

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  1. States Island seems like a really cool place. It would probably be a good place to meet a nice Italian woman.


    April 20, 2016 at EDT am

  2. i’ve never been to staten island. i’ve visited new york 4 times in my life and i have not been to staten island once.

    james n.s.w

    April 20, 2016 at EDT am

    • Some tourists take the ferry there. Its free and you get a good view of the Statue of Liberty from the ferry. Since you don’t see that much of the statue now by actually going to the island, its probably a better option than waiting on line and paying to go tot he island. Once tourists take the ferry to Staten Island, they don’t leave the terminal but take the next vote back to Manhattan.

      The on Staten Island is next to a big parking lot and big bus transfer thing, so its not like you can just walk outside the terminal and be on city streets. And the neighborhood by the terminal, where I once considered renting an apartment, is nothing to write home about either.

      There are interesting places to visit in Staten Island, but there is a problem getting there from the other boroughs. Geographically, Staten island being part of New York City really is an anomaly. It would make more sense for it to be part of New Jersey and for Hudson County to be a New York City borough. Its a piece of New Jersey suburbia, sort of the nothernmost portion of the Jersey shore, stuck into New York City. And you really need a car to get around there. Someone visiting Manhattan probably has a car, and even with a car it takes awhile, on traffic clogged roads or via the ferry, which is slow, to get to the place.


      April 20, 2016 at EDT pm

      • “Staten island being part of New York City really is an anomaly. It would make more sense for it to be part of New Jersey”

        New York won it form New Jersey in a boat race.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        April 21, 2016 at EDT am

  3. It’s astounding that Kasich got even one delegate.

    Mike Street Station

    April 20, 2016 at EDT am

  4. Staten Island is largely working class/middle class suburban and white ethnic, for those who want to know. Unlike Manhattan, Brooklyn or Queens a car is necessary to get around Staten Island should you venture a visit.


    April 20, 2016 at EDT am

  5. Trump won Staten Island, Cruz won the Orthodox Jewish parts of Brooklyn, and Kasich won the gay parts of Manhattan.


    April 20, 2016 at EDT am

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