Huge win for Trump in Staten Island!
I previously predicted that Staten Island would be Trump’s biggest county and win 80% of the vote.
So how did that pan out? Staten Island was indeed Trump’s biggest county and he won 82% of the vote, surpassing even my projection (which some people thought was far out in left field). I know Staten Island.
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Trump also has done pretty well in the rest of New York State, winning more than 50% in the vast majority of counties. It’s not clear if Trump won every single delegate, but it looks like I was short on my prediction of Trump winning only 82 of 95 delegates. It looks more likely that Trump wins 92 or 93 delegates.
The only county that Trump actually lost is New York County (also known as Manhattan), but because Manhattan is not its own CD but is gerrymandered into four parts, each sharing territory with the outer boroughs,
I think that Trump wins more than 50% in every New York City CD and wins every delegate [sorry was wrong about that].
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Kasich will win TWO delegates from the following CD:
12 (includes the east side of Manhattan)
Kasich will win one delegate from the following CDs:
10 (my district which includes the west side of Manhattan)
24 (areas around Syracuse)
Too close to call:
13 (includes northern Manhattan and the west side of the Bronx which includes the exclusive Riverdale area of the Bronx)
20 (the Albany/Troy/Schenectady tri-city area also known locally as the Capital District)
So Trump wins at least 89 delegates and may win as many as 91 delegates.
Kasich wins between 4 and 6 delegates