Re-evaluating Northeast Super Tuesday
Next Tuesday, April 26th, is the Northeast Super Tuesday.
Back on March 16th, I made predictions for the Northeast Super Tuesday. The question is whether anything has changed since then. The answer is I think that Trump may do even better than I previously predicted.
I previously predicted that Trump wins all of Connecticut’s delegates by winning more than 50% of the vote. I still predict that based on his strong showing in southern New York State. Look at how well Trump did in New York counties bordering Connecticut:
Connecticut should fall in line with those counties.
Winner-take-all state where Trump wins all 16 delegates, no change.
I previously predicted that Kasich could win the two CDs bordering DC, but maybe that’s not really the case.
If you look at the Maryland CD map, we see that the CD’s are heavily gerrymandered and that the two CDs adjacent to DC contain many other areas as well.
The southern part of CD8 will be Kasich’s strongest area in Maryland. Bethsda, Silver Spring, Chevy Chase, these are suburbs of DC where the upper middle class live and they will support Kasich. But the same CD also includes prole areas to the north where Trump will be strong.
CD4 includes Prince Georges County which is adjacent to DC, but Prince Georges County is not where DC’s rich and powerful live. It’s more like a Brooklyn or Staten Island where the proles really liked Trump. Many black people live in Prince Georges County, and Trump is strongest where white proles live next to blacks. CD4 also includes Anne Arundel county where a lot of prole military types live, they are definitely not big Kasich supporters.
So I think that Trump actually does win CD4, and CD8 is too close to call. So my new prediction is that Trump either wins 35 of 38, or all 38 delegates.
Trump wins all 17 at-large bound delegates because of winner-take-all rules as previously predicted. The good news for Trump is that I have since learned that many of the 54 unbound delegates are going to support him, so that means Trump really doesn’t need to win 1237 bound delegates to win the nomination. If he comes in 10 or 20 short, he can count on unbound Pennsylvania delegates to make up that gap. Even if Trump wins only 1200 bound delegates, he still has a good chance of winning the nomination on the first ballot.
This state has complete proportional allocation of delegates so it’s not very important. I predicted Trump would win 9 of 19, but I think 10 of 19 is more likely because Trump will top 50% in Rhode Island like he will in Connecticut and came very close in Massachusetts way back on March 1st before Rubio dropped out.
It looks good for Trump. He should do better than my previous optimistic projection.