Lion of the Blogosphere

Re-evaluating Northeast Super Tuesday

Next Tuesday, April 26th, is the Northeast Super Tuesday.

Back on March 16th, I made predictions for the Northeast Super Tuesday. The question is whether anything has changed since then. The answer is I think that Trump may do even better than I previously predicted.


I previously predicted that Trump wins all of Connecticut’s delegates by winning more than 50% of the vote. I still predict that based on his strong showing in southern New York State. Look at how well Trump did in New York counties bordering Connecticut:

Westchester 56%
Putnam 70%
Dutchess 64%
Columbia 57%

Connecticut should fall in line with those counties.


Winner-take-all state where Trump wins all 16 delegates, no change.


I previously predicted that Kasich could win the two CDs bordering DC, but maybe that’s not really the case.

If you look at the Maryland CD map, we see that the CD’s are heavily gerrymandered and that the two CDs adjacent to DC contain many other areas as well.

The southern part of CD8 will be Kasich’s strongest area in Maryland. Bethsda, Silver Spring, Chevy Chase, these are suburbs of DC where the upper middle class live and they will support Kasich. But the same CD also includes prole areas to the north where Trump will be strong.

CD4 includes Prince Georges County which is adjacent to DC, but Prince Georges County is not where DC’s rich and powerful live. It’s more like a Brooklyn or Staten Island where the proles really liked Trump. Many black people live in Prince Georges County, and Trump is strongest where white proles live next to blacks. CD4 also includes Anne Arundel county where a lot of prole military types live, they are definitely not big Kasich supporters.

So I think that Trump actually does win CD4, and CD8 is too close to call. So my new prediction is that Trump either wins 35 of 38, or all 38 delegates.


Trump wins all 17 at-large bound delegates because of winner-take-all rules as previously predicted. The good news for Trump is that I have since learned that many of the 54 unbound delegates are going to support him, so that means Trump really doesn’t need to win 1237 bound delegates to win the nomination. If he comes in 10 or 20 short, he can count on unbound Pennsylvania delegates to make up that gap. Even if Trump wins only 1200 bound delegates, he still has a good chance of winning the nomination on the first ballot.

Rhode Island

This state has complete proportional allocation of delegates so it’s not very important. I predicted Trump would win 9 of 19, but I think 10 of 19 is more likely because Trump will top 50% in Rhode Island like he will in Connecticut and came very close in Massachusetts way back on March 1st before Rubio dropped out.


It looks good for Trump. He should do better than my previous optimistic projection.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 20, 2016 at 10:55 am

Posted in Politics

6 Responses

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  1. If someone is against open borders, does that necessarily make them a nationalist? I don’t think it does because that would make guys like Harry Truman, Churchill and FDR, nationalists. None of their contemporaries would have described them as such.

    Otis the Sweaty

    April 20, 2016 at 11:49 am

  2. I lived in MD-6 and I’m familiar with MD-8. MD-6 is going to be a landslide for Trump. Half the people (those in Montgomery country) are suburban DC democrats and they will vote in the Democratic primary. The other half are rust belt Scotch-Irish.

    MD-8 is a bit iffy, but only partly because of the DC suburbs in Rockville (because they are Democrats). The problem is that the areas north of Frederick were settled by Germans rather than Scotch-Irish. However I still think that Trump will win that area and thus the whole district.

    MD-1 is like Delaware and seems like Virginia with a bit of New Jersey. The Virginia part of Delmarva went strongly for Trump so MD-1 will as well. MD-1 is also the only district that is based on geography rather than pure gerrymandering.

    The rest I can’t really comment on, but the fact that they are all so heavily gerrymandered works in the leading candidate’s favor. They are all going to have results similar to the statewide average.


    April 20, 2016 at 1:22 pm

  3. so how many bound delegates are we picking Trump to win? Does it all depend on IN?

    Otis the Sweaty

    April 20, 2016 at 3:15 pm

  4. Lion’s analysis is like fivethirtyeight, without the anti-trump bias making the analyst stupider than he has to be.


    April 20, 2016 at 4:14 pm

  5. Re: Southern Maryland, note that very few Republicans tend to live there. Republicans who move to the DC area are much likely to live in Northern Virginia. So it won’t take too many proles to outnumber the few David Brooks who live Bethesda.


    April 20, 2016 at 7:18 pm

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