Lion of the Blogosphere

Betting on Connecticut

predict_6

This bet at PredictIt.org is for Trump to have a margin if victory in Connecticut of more than 20 percentage points.

There are only two polls. One poll has Trump beating Kasich by exactly 20 and the other has Trump beating Kasich by 24.

I believe that Connecticut is a state like New York and Arizona where Trump will outperform the polls, and therefore betting that Trump exceeds a 20-point margin is a winning bet!

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 21, 2016 at 12:34 pm

Posted in Politics

6 Responses

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  1. Not to insult you, but these commentarized bet screencaps really are some of your best posts, Lion. Surpassed only by the posts where you revisit past and concluded bets, to see how things went.

    AnonymousCoward

    April 21, 2016 at 12:39 pm

  2. Betting is a vice, don’t do it.

    Yakov

    April 21, 2016 at 12:58 pm

    • Not if you do it with small amounts of money.

      Contrary-wise, it’s the only serious and humble way to keep track of your own prediction ability, free of hindsight-bias. People who don’t bet delude themselves about their own accuracy.

      AnonymousCoward

      April 21, 2016 at 2:23 pm

      • Well, in that sense it makes sense, but next you gonna start playing roulette or poker or bet on dog fights. It’s a slippery slope. I wouldn’t risk it.

        Yakov

        April 21, 2016 at 8:04 pm

  3. Prince just died. First!!

    Also, I don’t care.

    peterike

    April 21, 2016 at 1:33 pm

  4. I agree that Trump will outperform his poll numbers but I don’t want us to get ahead of ourselves.

    I like what the Trump campaign is doing. In interviews and rallies he is being his normal scatterbrained self but he is acting Presidential when he needs to.

    Otis the Sweaty

    April 21, 2016 at 1:55 pm


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