Lion of the Blogosphere

Archive for April 2016

Prince

Prince is dead at the rather young age of 57. Cause of death: the flu. Perhaps, because he was a vegan, he didn’t have enough protein to fight it off.

I never cared for his music. In fact, I dislike his music so much, I’m not even going to post a favorite music video because I don’t have one.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 21, 2016 at EST pm

Posted in News

Betting on Connecticut

predict_6

This bet at PredictIt.org is for Trump to have a margin if victory in Connecticut of more than 20 percentage points.

There are only two polls. One poll has Trump beating Kasich by exactly 20 and the other has Trump beating Kasich by 24.

I believe that Connecticut is a state like New York and Arizona where Trump will outperform the polls, and therefore betting that Trump exceeds a 20-point margin is a winning bet!

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 21, 2016 at EST pm

Posted in Politics

15-year-old girl dies in fight at high school

A 15-year-old girl died today in a fight in a girls’ bathroom at Howard High School of Technology in Delaware.

Or course, as normal for news reporting, the race of the victim and the perpetrators is a huge mystery. Doing some research, I learn that this high school is 69% black, 16% white, 14% Hispanic.

UPDATE

Looks like the victim was black and the fight was over a boy.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 21, 2016 at EST pm

Posted in Biology

Put Teddy Roosevelt on the $20, not Harriet Tubman

No more politically correct currency. We’ve already had Susan B Anthony and Sacagawea dollars. Maybe the reason why dollar coins refuse to catch on is because no one likes looking at them?

Teddy Roosevelt was a great president and never honored with his portrait on any paper currency.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 21, 2016 at EST am

Posted in News

Game 6

In a few months, the 30th anniversary of the most exciting moment in sports of my lifetime.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 20, 2016 at EST pm

Posted in Uncategorized

The Juicery

There’s a new store in the new shopping mall underground at the Columbus Circle subway station called The Juicery where you can buy a 16 oz bottle of special juice blends for $6.50.

In other news, an article at the Atlantic says that almost half of Americans would not be able to come up with $400 for an emergency except by borrowing money or selling something. This is not just a poor-people problem. “Nearly one-quarter of households making $100,000 to $150,000 a year claim not to be able to raise $2,000 in a month.”

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 20, 2016 at EST pm

Posted in Uncategorized

5 NY Delegates for Kasich, 90 for Trump

Looking at the New York State election site this afternoon, I count 5 delegates for Kasich.

There’s a small possibility that Kasich could pick up a sixth delegate from CD13 (northern Manhattan and western Bronx) where Trump has 50.49% of the vote and one of 496 EDs has not yet been counted. But that’s unlikely.

Trump has exceeded my original prediction of 82 by 8 delegates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 20, 2016 at EST pm

Posted in Politics

New York Times interactive election map!

This is so cool.

Trump won my ED by two votes. My vote counted! Democrats outnumbered Republican voters in my ED by a factor of 9-1.

There are some EDs where there were actually zero Republican voters. Like AD44 ED41 in Flatbush, Brooklyn where 217 voted in the Democratic primary and not a single person voted in the Republican primary.

Trump won a whopping 87% of the vote in my parents’ prole ED in Staten Island. However there were some EDs in State Island where Trump hit 90%. Like AD62 ED1 at the very bottom tip of Staten Island where Trump had 186 votes, Kasich 11, and Cruz 5. Bernie Sanders won the same ED 39 to 32.

Cruz appears to be very strong in Hasidic and ultra-orthodox Jewish areas, but that’s illusory because very few people voted. There are about two hundred thousand ultra-orthodox and Hasidic Jews old enough to vote, and a scant few hundred voted for Cruz. For example, AD40 ED58 in the Hasidic part of Williamsburg is colored yellow for Cruz, but that’s based on only a single Republican voter!

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 20, 2016 at EST pm

Posted in Politics

Re-evaluating Northeast Super Tuesday

Next Tuesday, April 26th, is the Northeast Super Tuesday.

Back on March 16th, I made predictions for the Northeast Super Tuesday. The question is whether anything has changed since then. The answer is I think that Trump may do even better than I previously predicted.

Connecticut

I previously predicted that Trump wins all of Connecticut’s delegates by winning more than 50% of the vote. I still predict that based on his strong showing in southern New York State. Look at how well Trump did in New York counties bordering Connecticut:

Westchester 56%
Putnam 70%
Dutchess 64%
Columbia 57%

Connecticut should fall in line with those counties.

Delaware.

Winner-take-all state where Trump wins all 16 delegates, no change.

Maryland

I previously predicted that Kasich could win the two CDs bordering DC, but maybe that’s not really the case.

If you look at the Maryland CD map, we see that the CD’s are heavily gerrymandered and that the two CDs adjacent to DC contain many other areas as well.

The southern part of CD8 will be Kasich’s strongest area in Maryland. Bethsda, Silver Spring, Chevy Chase, these are suburbs of DC where the upper middle class live and they will support Kasich. But the same CD also includes prole areas to the north where Trump will be strong.

CD4 includes Prince Georges County which is adjacent to DC, but Prince Georges County is not where DC’s rich and powerful live. It’s more like a Brooklyn or Staten Island where the proles really liked Trump. Many black people live in Prince Georges County, and Trump is strongest where white proles live next to blacks. CD4 also includes Anne Arundel county where a lot of prole military types live, they are definitely not big Kasich supporters.

So I think that Trump actually does win CD4, and CD8 is too close to call. So my new prediction is that Trump either wins 35 of 38, or all 38 delegates.

Pennsylvania

Trump wins all 17 at-large bound delegates because of winner-take-all rules as previously predicted. The good news for Trump is that I have since learned that many of the 54 unbound delegates are going to support him, so that means Trump really doesn’t need to win 1237 bound delegates to win the nomination. If he comes in 10 or 20 short, he can count on unbound Pennsylvania delegates to make up that gap. Even if Trump wins only 1200 bound delegates, he still has a good chance of winning the nomination on the first ballot.

Rhode Island

This state has complete proportional allocation of delegates so it’s not very important. I predicted Trump would win 9 of 19, but I think 10 of 19 is more likely because Trump will top 50% in Rhode Island like he will in Connecticut and came very close in Massachusetts way back on March 1st before Rubio dropped out.

Conclusion

It looks good for Trump. He should do better than my previous optimistic projection.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 20, 2016 at EST am

Posted in Politics

Who’s standing behind Trump?

The New York victory speech. Standing behind Trump on the left (his right) is Carl Paladino, and on the right is his hot babe of a daughter Tiffany.

I always think that it works for Trump when he features his family at his victory speeches, especially his beautiful daughters. I’m not sure what Carl Paladino brings to the table.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 20, 2016 at EST am

Posted in Politics

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