Lion of the Blogosphere

Latest poll, Trump has huge lead in California

KABC/Survey USA California poll:

Trump 54
Cruz 20
Kasich 16

Yet another recent poll showing a huge lead for Trump, further evidence that Trump is running away with the nomination. It took a lot longer than I expected, but finally the psychological principles of social proof and people wanting to associate with a winner are working on Donald Trump. Trump’s big win in New York State seems like it was the turning point.

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Meanwhile, a Public Policy Polling poll shows Hillary has only a 3 point lead over Trump in the critical swing state of Ohio. I think that Trump can catch up those three points by November. Remember that Mitt Romney lost Ohio by 3 points to Obama, so despite all of the “Trump is the worst candidate ever and will lose massively” whining by the GOPe and National Review types, Trump is where Romney was in November of 2012.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

May 3, 2016 at 9:07 am

Posted in Politics

25 Responses

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  1. What are the states that Romney lost, but which Trump might win?

    There was an intensely depressing article in WaPo about the Republican disadvantage in the electoral map. I hated it but it was true. The author honestly ascribed the whole thing to non-white voters. Sometimes I cannot believe my eyes: Republicans allowed and in some cases even celebrated a demographic shift that promises to destroy them – and the country.

    Meanwhile, Andrew Sullivan is back, with a schizophrenic long-winded article in NY mag. He begins by ascribing our descent into fascism to democracy itself (pace Plato) and then says Trump will benefit from this inevitability. So what does any of this have to do with Trump?


    May 3, 2016 at 9:28 am

    • “What are the states that Romney lost, but which Trump might win?”

      Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvannia, and New Hampshire. That gives him 290 electoral votes to Clinton’s 248. It looks like Nevada and Colorado have been lost to the Democrats permanently, though Operation Wetback II could fix that.

      Here’s the electoral map right here:


      May 3, 2016 at 11:57 am

      • Virginia’s gone. Better include Iowa instead.Also, New Jersey is going to surprise a lot of people.


        May 4, 2016 at 12:41 am

      • What does “Virginia’s gone” mean? To the Democrats?


        May 4, 2016 at 9:39 am

  2. I wonder if the massive amount of PR’s in FLA makes it unwinnable for Republicans now.

    Trump only being down 3 in OH is def a bell weather. Trump is not only becoming more acceptable to Republicans, he’s becoming more acceptable to the general electorate.

    Otis the Sweaty

    May 3, 2016 at 10:13 am

    • Which of these states do you think Trump could win?


      May 3, 2016 at 11:21 am

    • “he’s becoming more acceptable to the general electorate.”

      I was genuinely impressed with his foreign policy speech. From what I’d read before watching it, I was expecting a speech full of contradictions and a “secret plan to defeat ISIS.” The speech wasn’t without its problems, but Trump seemed presidential, he was much more specific than he normally is, which demonstrates his ability to memorize simple facts, and he’s positioning himself to the left of Hillary on war.

      If Trump keeps this up and shifts his focus on immigration to the billionaire libertarian oligarchs who keep our borders open rather than the immigrants themselves, he’ll pull in a significant number of disgruntled Bernie supporters.

      Horace Pinker

      May 3, 2016 at 12:13 pm

    • I was reading the Bernie Sanders reddit and several Bernie supporter were considering voting for Trump over Hillary (who they despise). They were impressed that Trump bashed George W Bush and that he was against the Iraq War.

      Jay Fink

      May 3, 2016 at 1:26 pm

      • Most of my friends are Bernie supporters and I don’t know a single one who is planning to vote for Hillary, although I expect that to change as we get closer to November. Still, I can think of several off hand who I’m certain will be voting for Jill Stein. One Bernie supporter that I know is slowly becoming sympathetic to the alt-right. He was very receptive to this article that was written by a PhD student who’s voting for Trump:

        The guy’s story pretty much mirrors my own. I’d imagine that’s true for a lot of other commenters. It was nice to see that in Vox.

        Horace Pinker

        May 3, 2016 at 2:35 pm

      • A PhD in Cinema Studies? He doesn’t seem to know that “reform” is leftist jargon in the immigration context.


        May 3, 2016 at 4:30 pm

  3. “muh small government” post from RedState:

    Thank you Donald Trump for destroying the conservative movement.

    Otis the Sweaty

    May 3, 2016 at 10:25 am

  4. I noticed Rush is using the Lose with Cruz phrase. Does Rush read your blog?


    May 3, 2016 at 11:09 am

  5. You can’t make this stuff up. A group of protestors of diverse skin colors, nationalities, accents, and ages (looks like the United Nations) all happen to decide to congregate in one place, declaring and embracing love by shouting profanities at Trump voters. Where would you find these people in INDIANA, of all places, if they were not paid and bussed in? Some of them look like they are on a field trip — smiling, waving, and having a good time. No drumming or dancing like the group in Burlingame, though.


    May 3, 2016 at 12:08 pm

  6. So Trump is supposed to win NY and California in the general?

    If not, the opinion of NY and California Values is irrelevant in choosing a nominee.

    Lion of the Turambar

    May 3, 2016 at 12:50 pm

  7. I just wandered over RedState. Dear God, those folks are insane. I would not be surprised if in an assassination attempt came from the NeverTrump crowd of RedState folks.


    May 3, 2016 at 1:14 pm

    • The thing about Trump is that his negatives are maxed out. But for each successive “not Trump”, he faces off against, his opponents *positives* are maxed out.

      The more people see Trump vs the not-Trump flavor of the week, the more they start to like Trump and dislike Trump’s opponent.

      I’m not calling a Trump victory in November because the economy is too good and Obama’s favorables are too high, but I do think that after the party unites around Trump and he is competing directly with Clinton that you will see Trump’s approval go up and Clinton’s already horrible approval go down.

      Right now I’ll predict a razor thin Clinton victory comparable to Gore Bush, except with FLA going to Hil.

      Otis the Sweaty

      May 3, 2016 at 2:24 pm

      • I believe the Republicans combined got something like 500,000 more primary votes in FL than the Democrats combined. And Trump won in a landslide winning every county except Cuban Miami Dade County won by Rubio.

        Trump is winning FL in the general guaranteed.

        Andrew E.

        May 3, 2016 at 3:23 pm

      • “Trump is winning FL in the general guaranteed.”

        I’m not so sure about that. Puerto Ricans have been pouring into the state for the past couple of years. Obama barely won Florida the past two Presidential elections, but with all the new voters, who are going to vote 80/20 for the Democrats, I think Florida is already a blue state but it just hasn’t shown up yet in votes.

        Mike Street Station

        May 3, 2016 at 5:22 pm

      • But for each successive “not Trump”, he faces off against, his opponents *positives* are maxed out.

        Hillary’s negatives have nowhere to go but up because Bernie barely went after her, the media has thrown her nothing but softballs, and Trump has yet to go on the attack.

        I’m not calling a Trump victory in November because the economy is too good

        Hillary can’t take the economy for granted. Every economic indicator is signalling a near term recession, Europe’s currency crisis and China’s cooling off may well spark Lehman 2.0, and Q1 growth was a pitiful 0.5.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        May 3, 2016 at 6:13 pm

      • The US might go into a mild recession in the fall but there will be no 2008 style crisis, and Trump needs that to win.

        Add in the PR bloc votes for Hil in FLA and Trump has a very tall mountain to climb.

        Basically the election comes down to Obama’s approval. 40% approval: Trump. 45% approval: 50-50. 50% approval: Hillary.

        Otis the Sweaty

        May 3, 2016 at 6:40 pm

      • The US might go into a mild recession in the fall but there will be no 2008 style crisis, and Trump needs that to win.

        I see no reason why a recession this year would be mild. The last two mild recessions were those of 2000 and 1992 when the underlying fundamentals of the domestic and world economy were generally healthy. This time the fundamentals are feeble everywhere across the industrial world, except in a few limited cases like Switzerland.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        May 3, 2016 at 7:55 pm

      • I predict the Fed will do whatever possible to keep the economy pumped up until the election. AFTER that I expect bad times. Possibly.

      • I predict the Fed will do whatever possible to keep the economy pumped up until the election.

        They’ll certainly try but, with rates at almost zero and 7 years of QE, they’re out of ammunition if any economic shock appears.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        May 3, 2016 at 8:02 pm

  8. It’s not just social proof. Cruz is a terribly unappealing candidate; weird face and terrible nasally voice. Also, the country is in no mood for sermonizing (ie BS).

    People appreciate that Trump isn’t a phony. Just like everybody yesterday laughed about Fiorina falling through the stage, Trump himself wasn’t “above” mentioning it in good fun.


    May 3, 2016 at 2:00 pm

  9. If the Bernie supporters are in solid Democrat states they don’t matter. If Trump won big in a state that will surely go Dem it doesn’t matter.

    I have to go through the likely swing states and count up how many voters actually came out to vote for Trump as opposed to which ever Dem won. That will indicate something.


    May 3, 2016 at 5:26 pm

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