Lion of the Blogosphere

Is Trump really ahead in the swing states?

The recent Quinnipiac University swing states poll showing Trump ahead 4 points in Ohio and Clinton ahead one point in Florida and Pennsylvania, was conducted with live telephone interviews.

At this blog, we have previously discussed the phenomenon in which Trump does better on internet and automated polls than he does on live interview polls. This is because voters, primarily more educated white voters, are reluctant to tell live humans they are voting for Trump.

The fact that Trump is tied with Clinton in a live-interview poll really means that he’s ahead of Clinton by several points.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

May 11, 2016 at 9:38 am

Posted in Politics

66 Responses

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  1. As the campaign goes on, he is going to have to pivot to explaining how he effectively pulls the levers of power as an outsider who will find that many of his fixers and new “allies” have ulterior motives.


    May 11, 2016 at 9:42 am

    • Agreed. I’ve been impressed by how serious he’s been in recent interviews. His people have got to be preparing him for this.

      Economic Sophisms

      May 11, 2016 at 10:38 am

    • He is going to have to explain how he is going to get anyone to staff his administration.
      Politico had a story about how no one with any competency wants to be anywhere near a Trump gig.

      Kind of hard to claim you are going to hire the best people when the first 100 names on that list wont return your call.

      Lion of the Turambar

      May 11, 2016 at 1:15 pm

      • Screw Politico. He should appoint David Stockman as Secretary of Treasury.


        May 11, 2016 at 2:53 pm

      • He already has Giuliani for Department of Homeland Security, more or less.


        May 11, 2016 at 3:15 pm

      • “Kind of hard to claim you are going to hire the best people when the first 100 names on that list wont return your call.”

        Except that those first 100 names are all terrible, incompetent, globalist traitors anyway, so why would you want to hire them? This idea that these D.C. leeches are somehow the smart set is laughable. Trump probably has 100 people working for him right now that are vastly more competent than the 100 best lickspittles in Washington.

        But maybe you want “experienced” people like John Kerry or John McCain. You know, an idiot and a psychopath.


        May 11, 2016 at 3:50 pm

      • There are loads of people who will debase themselves for a high-quality job. Don’t worry about Trump not being able to find people to work for him.

      • He may have trouble staffing his campaign but if he wins I don’t imagine he would have much trouble finding people.


        May 11, 2016 at 5:02 pm

      • Many people will not work for Trump because they fear they’ll be blackballed by the establishment.

        Lewis Medlock

        May 11, 2016 at 5:46 pm

      • “There are loads of people who will debase themselves for a high-quality job. Don’t worry about Trump not being able to find people to work for him.

        Ok so he will literally be able to hire *someone* but he is going to be into second term mode from the start. The theory about why Presidents’ second terms are so bumpy is that the good people from the first term are gone and you are left with 3rd raters to keep the spot warm.

        Trump is going to start the JV squad.

        Lion of the Turambar

        May 11, 2016 at 6:02 pm

  2. Why do I always see Trump among less educated proles, meanwhile Hillary and Sanders are in front of young college types?

    If Trump wins, it really proves my point: Meriprolestan


    May 11, 2016 at 10:23 am

    • Young college types of this generation: tend to be naive, lacking in life experiences, idealistic/unrealistic, sheltered and pampered, entitled

      Older proles: tend to be realistic, graduates of hard knocks

      Hillary & Sanders: been in government for decades — what have they achieved? (Every major thing she was responsible for had turned into a failure or disaster.) But they’re experts in exploiting the idealism and naivete of the young college types.

      Trump: success in real estate, success in show biz, success in the primaries. Tried and tested, he shows tremendous strength, resourcefulness and quickness of learning.

      By electing the realistic and visionary problem-solver, the proles have shown that they’re smarter than the college kids this time.


      May 11, 2016 at 1:36 pm

    • Because non-proles are doing well in the current system and want business as usual. Proles are suffering and want change.

      Jay Fink

      May 11, 2016 at 2:46 pm

      • If you read carefully, my comment was a rebuff to Lion – hinting educated white folks are voting for Trump. Not!!!


        May 11, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    • If Trump wins, it really proves my point: Meriprolestan

      Lots of black and hispanic proles out there.

      Who are THEY going to vote for?

      Also, I suspect Trump’s upscale voters are not the type of people who attend rallies, march, protest, etc.

      That’s not what they do.


      May 11, 2016 at 4:06 pm

      • Then what do these upscale ding a lings do?

        Cowards who hid in anonymity like us, and rally their support for the Trumpster behind closed quarters?


        May 11, 2016 at 4:38 pm

    • Maybe because that is what you are looking for. Trump voters median household income is higher than the median income in every state. 44% of Trump voters have college degrees compared to 29% of general population. Hillary on the other hand, seems to be the candidate of Meriprolestan. She has the poor folk vote locked up.


      May 11, 2016 at 10:02 pm

    • Peeing on the proles is exactly why Trump is doing so well.


      May 11, 2016 at 10:40 pm

    • JS — Out of curiosity, what was your degree in?


      May 12, 2016 at 12:48 am

      • Why does it matter?

        The entire isle of Manhattan was for Hillary. Trump was essentially “kicked off” from his home-base.

        And Manhattan is now a White majority island, with above average incomes. Everyone here knows working class proles like Yakov do not live there.

        The few remaining NAM sections, also went for Ms. Slick Willie (which is a no-brainer).


        May 12, 2016 at 10:38 am

      • I don’t guess it does matter. But I’d be surprised if you had a degree in anything harder than P.E.


        May 14, 2016 at 5:48 am

  3. Pennsylvania and Ohio are exactly the type of states that a candidate like Trump could legitimately put into play. I know for years Pennsylvania has been the football that Lucy constantly pulls away from hapless Republicans each election year, but call me a dreamer, but I think Trump makes it doable.

    Mike Street Station

    May 11, 2016 at 10:25 am

    • Unless Bernie manages to upset the apple cart. Trump called him “Crazy Bernie” – bad move! He should let Bernie cause havoc. Unless I am misreading this and it’s a dog whistle to his supporters to stop voting for Bernie. Exit polls in WVA indicate that a lot of his supporters voted for Sanders.


      May 11, 2016 at 1:55 pm

      • Yeah I agree he should leave Bernie alone. Bernie is making exactly the kind of mess on the Democratic side that would benefit Trump.

        Mike Street Station

        May 11, 2016 at 3:12 pm

      • Perhaps doomsbury tweedledoms might get it right this time.

        Trump’s ascension, and his demise for the presidential nomination, might serve a catalyst for an ugly gorey fest.

        It might be the straw that broke the camel’s back, when it comes to angry proles, who’ve had it with the status quo.


        May 11, 2016 at 3:39 pm

      • Trump’s ascension, and his demise for the presidential nomination…

        Still not emotionally prepared for that Trump presidency are you?.


        May 11, 2016 at 4:08 pm

      • I don’t think I’ve read a single comment from this JS guy that was actually worth reading. Too bad they’re making it out of the moderation queue.

        Panther of the Blogocube

        May 12, 2016 at 8:41 am

  4. The Quinnipac poll is too much of an outlier for me to take seriously. Look at the national popular vote and that will tell you how the swing states break.

    Right now, Trump is down by 5. He needs to win over 2.5 percent of Hillary’s current supporters to win this thing.

    He can do it because of how toxic Hillary is, but it will be tough unless the economy declines or there are more major terrorist attacks.

    Otis the Sweaty

    May 11, 2016 at 11:11 am

    • The rolling Reuters poll was particularly accurate during the Republican primaries and it has both now practically tied.


      May 11, 2016 at 1:00 pm

    • but it will be tough unless the economy declines or there are more major terrorist attacks.

      The economy is declining with every traditional indicator of recession, and worse, flashing warning signs. As for terrorism, Obama’s deep affection for Islamic terrorism leaves ISIS free to do whatever it pleases in America and Western Europe.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      May 11, 2016 at 11:07 pm

  5. He’s still gotta win by more than the usual margin of Democrat vote fraud.


    May 11, 2016 at 11:14 am

  6. No, he isn’t ahead.

    Trump is the presumptive nominee, but Hillary is still campaigning against Bernie. Once Hillary wins, you will see an “upward bump,” which really is her true level of polling support.

    I’m optimism stick about Trump. Whatever flaws he has as a candidate, he can fix and still has time to fix. Hillary can’t fix the problems she has.


    May 11, 2016 at 12:25 pm

    • I think that the race is Trump’s to lose. If he appeals to enough people, he will win. If he turns people off, he will lose. In contrast, Hillary won’t be able to change anyone’s mind. People already think of her as they will on election day, unless the email scandal really sinks her this summer, whereas Trump still has the power to win people over or turn them away.


      May 11, 2016 at 8:14 pm

      • That’s quite correct, and Trump’s win is now determined by his swing of the pendulum near the post season. He really needs to garner votes from the SWPL base, who otherwise will vote for Sanders, if Hillary is set to beat him. Yet, such a move can be disingenuous, and Trump becomes a random rabble rouser with jibberish talk, where his prole constituents might even have second thoughts of voting for him in November.

        Remember, Trump was a former liberal. He has vacillated with his stance with Hispanics and Muslims, calling some of them “wonderful people”, despite his tough talk on closing the borders and banning immigrants who are against our values.

        The American White demographic neither embraces nor destroys those who harm them — A failure, as stated by Machiavelli.


        May 11, 2016 at 10:48 pm

      • “He has vacillated with his stance with Hispanics and Muslims, calling some of them “wonderful people”, despite his tough talk on closing the borders and banning immigrants who are against our values.”

        Calling all Hispanics and Muslims rapists and horrible people, rapists, terrorists, etc.. is a non-starter. He never meant that in the first place..

        You can not hate Hispanics/Muslims and still want stricter immigration standards, enforce the borders, etc..


        May 12, 2016 at 2:34 am

  7. Since the 22nd Amendment was passed, Americans have been pretty reliable (only one exception in the 1980s) in giving one party the White House for two presidential terms, then switching to the other party. And the popular vote margin for the presidential party almost always shrinks the second presidential election after they take over the White House, the only exceptions being 1904 and the Cleveland-Harrison elections. The Republicans have also been doing extremely well in elections not involving the presidency.

    So regardless of what the polls say, this is the Republicans’ year. Generic Republican beats generic Democrat this year.

    For various reasons I probably don’t have to list on this blog, Hilary Clinton is a worse presidential candidate for the Democrats than some generic Democratic politician. One piece of evidence is her loss in the primaries in 2008 despite a huge money advantage, and her struggles this year despite an even bigger advantage (less in money but more in media).

    Really all the concern about Trump, other than stylistic stuff that can and will get fixed, is that he departs from the establishment consensus so much that the elections will be fixed against him. So we are really in Latin American presidential election territory in this situation.


    May 11, 2016 at 12:33 pm

    • “Americans have been pretty reliable (only one exception in the 1980s) in giving one party the White House for two presidential terms, then switching to the other party.”

      Yes but this effect is less and less important as the country gets less white. This election could be the last time whites can actually vote for their own candidate. If Hillary wins, then it’s lights out for whitey.


      May 11, 2016 at 3:52 pm

    • Umm, they gave the Democrats one term in 1980 and the Republicans three terms in 1988.


      May 11, 2016 at 6:42 pm

  8. It is said that black women vote Trump. Is Azaelia Banks endorsement of Trump a revealing any U-turn ?

    Bruno from Paris

    May 11, 2016 at 12:59 pm

    • I think she is an outlier. Blacks will overwhelmingly vote for Hillary, although Trump will get a slightly higher % of the black vote than recent GOP candidates. Plus black voter turnout should be down significantly from the Obama electrons.

      Jay Fink

      May 11, 2016 at 2:51 pm

      • I was shocked to learn today that one of the black female support staff at work is supporting Trump. The message was delivered through one of her very liberal exasperated colleagues who was mad that she used her son’s extended unemployment as an excuse to vote for the common enemy; the white male.


        May 11, 2016 at 10:25 pm

    • Blacks hate Trump, black women moreso than black men. They hate all Republicans though so I think Trump will get at least 10 percent, and probably 15% of the black vote.

      TruCon tears: so delicious.

      They are angry Rubio is endorsing Trump. Betraying their pathetic #NeverTrump struggle. I’m willing to let bygones be bygones with Rubio, Perry and anybody else who is willing to support Trump. But we must wage holy Jihad against the TruCons until every last one of them has been destroyed.

      Otis the Sweaty

      May 11, 2016 at 3:06 pm

    • Black women have been single parents for too long, and they’re tired. Trump would be the best jobs President this country has ever produced. As black men gain more useful and stable employment, they will become better fathers. This will increase their self-esteem and that of their children, not chanting “black lives matter” or rioting without consequences or being supported by welfare handouts. A Clinton administration, which would be a more incompetent version of the current one, could never help the black community in any meaningful way.


      May 11, 2016 at 4:14 pm

      • Beyond wrong. Black people think they have their lives together when they’ve got their EBT, Section 8, Obamaphone, TANF, and every other goodie provided by White people through Uncle Samantha all lined up. They will speak with pride, eyes moist at this “achievement.” A worthless race.


        May 11, 2016 at 6:14 pm

      • Some black people have wised up, and they will vote for Trump. He does not need a majority of the African American vote to win, only a small fraction. I predict it will be a record turnout by this group for any Republican candidate, albeit still a minority of its voters.


        May 11, 2016 at 7:57 pm

      • LOL, Maga. You really don’t know black people very well.


        May 11, 2016 at 8:39 pm

      • Hmmm…which plan do they really prefer? The logical reasoning put forth in your post, or “muh gubbmint handoutz”? I’ll let you figure that one out.


        May 11, 2016 at 9:54 pm

  9. A friend of mine is doing the Trump commercials planned for PA and Ohio. They’re going to be Roissyesque, aimed at young white men along the lines of, “you’ll get more and better quiff than you’ve ever seen …”

    West Coast IA

    May 11, 2016 at 3:16 pm

    • Fools!

      Our current political figures are all enemies of young White men. You have Republicans who come across as creepy and off putting, beta schlubs (including our Paul Ryan) to attractive women, or a successful, non-charismatic, misogynist like Trump.

      Bernie Sanders, who has a large female fan base, is just a sterile, platonic, grandpa figure, with his days numbered.


      May 12, 2016 at 12:02 am

  10. Can Trump do this? Hold the Romney states and pick off Florida, Ohio and Penn.

    I think he can!


    May 11, 2016 at 4:11 pm

    • It’s an uphill battle in 2016, but if he stays serious about halting illegal immigration and increasing deportation, he will have an easier time with Colorado and Nevada in 2020.


      May 11, 2016 at 8:21 pm

    • My gut tells me the map will look a lot redder than that, especially the Northeast and Upper Midwest.

      Bilbo Baggins

      May 11, 2016 at 10:01 pm

    • Trump won’t get NC and he’s barely hanging on in GA.


      May 11, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    • As Latinos pour into and conquer or reconquer Texas, Arizona, Florida, and even North Carolina, I don’t see how Republicans can hold onto those states. Trump is twenty years too late.

      Mark Caplan

      May 12, 2016 at 9:49 am

    • Trump ain’t winning Florida.


      May 12, 2016 at 11:30 am

  11. O/t – Lion’s blog buddy, Pumpkin, has brought in a guido for an IQ analysis.

    Low IQ + Low Impulse Control = Epic Fail

    Procopio is an unfitting name, perhaps unfitting for most guidos.


    May 11, 2016 at 5:01 pm

    • They’re animals anyway, let them lose their souls…


      May 11, 2016 at 7:49 pm

    • Named after the great proto-Byzantine historian? Eh, well, a millennium and a half can do that to any bloodline…


      May 11, 2016 at 10:42 pm


    I know the “Bradley Effect” is the conceptual last resort of likely losers — i.e., those behind in polls. But here are the last six primary states, with the percentage Trump got in excess of his final RCP poll average:


    May 11, 2016 at 9:03 pm

  13. Hey Lion, am I banned for some reason? None of my stuff is showing up…


    May 11, 2016 at 10:43 pm

  14. Curle

    May 12, 2016 at 1:17 am

  15. This is amazing. With Sessions behind the scenes as the brains of the movement and Trump out front as the charismatic leader this could be perfect.

    “For the first time in a long time, this November will give Americans a clear choice on perhaps the most important issue facing our country and our civilization: whether we remain a nation-state that serves its own people, or whether we slide irrevocably toward a soulless globalism that treats humans as interchangeable widgets in the world market.

    In Donald Trump, we have a forceful advocate for America. Trump has said that our trade, immigration and foreign policies must be changed to protect the interest of American workers and our nation.

    In Hillary Clinton, we have a committed globalist. Clinton was an ardent supporter of the Trans-Pacific Partnership — which surrenders American sovereignty to an international union of 12 countries — and has clearly left the door wide open to enacting the pact if elected.”


    May 12, 2016 at 9:20 pm

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