Is Trump really ahead in the swing states?
The recent Quinnipiac University swing states poll showing Trump ahead 4 points in Ohio and Clinton ahead one point in Florida and Pennsylvania, was conducted with live telephone interviews.
At this blog, we have previously discussed the phenomenon in which Trump does better on internet and automated polls than he does on live interview polls. This is because voters, primarily more educated white voters, are reluctant to tell live humans they are voting for Trump.
The fact that Trump is tied with Clinton in a live-interview poll really means that he’s ahead of Clinton by several points.