Lion of the Blogosphere

Can Trump win New Jersey?

Hillary only leading Trump by 4 points, but this Monmouth University poll was conducted by live telephone interviews, and it’s well known that Trump underperforms in live-interview polling because respondents who will actually vote for Trump don’t want to admit it to a live interviewer because Trump is low class and politically incorrect.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

May 31, 2016 at 2:11 pm

Posted in Politics

14 Responses

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  1. Probably not. But if it’s that close in New Jersey, he should be able to win Pennsylvania easily.


    May 31, 2016 at 2:52 pm

  2. At some point DJT becomes mainstream and this effect is less true.. Has it happened yet?


    May 31, 2016 at 3:32 pm

  3. Thinking aloud here, I wonder if a phone survey doesn’t have its own pro-Trump biases. Are these landlines with phonebook numbers? Who has a landline these days? Old (i.e white) people. Presumably Monmonth knows what they’re doing though. Encouraging news. If he wins NJ, he easily wins PA and possibly even NY.

    People still have another 5 months to get comfortable with Trump as president and 5 months of hearing Crooked Hillary Clinton’s horrible voice. Looking good.

    Economic Sophisms

    May 31, 2016 at 3:54 pm

  4. The burden of being a low class billionaire must be significant.

    K.l. Asher

    May 31, 2016 at 4:38 pm

  5. The poll includes 15% undecided. It’s fair to say much of that 15% are Bernie supporters, disenchanted voters, etc. Most of those will probably end up voting for Hillary, but all Trump has to do is dissuade them by highlighting Hillary’s negatives.


    May 31, 2016 at 4:52 pm

  6. Trump’s big problem is figuring out a way to allow people to vote for him without endorsing him. Because frankly he is revolting and people dont want to be associated with his low information braggadocio.

    Maybe encourage people to write in Robert Conquest for his VP so they can have a way of having their preference of not approving of Trump reflected in the vote totals.

    Lion of the Turambar

    May 31, 2016 at 5:46 pm

    • “Trump’s big problem is figuring out a way to allow people to vote for him without endorsing him. Because frankly he is revolting and people dont want to be associated with his low information braggadocio.”

      He should keep harping on immigration and trade.

      The Democrats are tearing themselves apart. I think the people here underestimate that.


      May 31, 2016 at 6:13 pm

      • I think he should do that and come out against affirmative action. That’s another position that is popular among the people (even black people) and unpopular among the elites.

        Republicans need to stop bashing the government and instead propose ways to make it work as well as possible and this is probably the single best way to start doing that. Even better than going after public employee unions which should really wait until after non government wages start going up.


        June 1, 2016 at 5:05 pm

    • Fortunately, most Americans aren’t intellectual or moral snobs. Their barriers to voting for Trump are not that high. Immigration and trade. Immigration and trade to victory.

      Andrew E.

      May 31, 2016 at 6:52 pm

      • Forget trade. Trump should say, “Haven’t you proved you’re non-racist already? Haven’t you been doing that your whole life? You have, right? Sure you have. Me too. So why shouldn’t you be able to keep bombers out of your country? You don’t have anything left to prove, so let’s move on and secure everybody’s safety. That’s only common sense, but Hillary can’t handle it – she’s worried about people’s feelings.”

        West Coast IA

        May 31, 2016 at 10:03 pm

    • Explain the Conquest reference? You mean like, Jerseyites are used to voting for dead guys?


      May 31, 2016 at 9:55 pm

      • I think it is a reference to his proposed second edition rename of his book “The Great Terror” about the Great Purge, he reportedly wanted to call it “I Told You So, You Fucking Fools”.

        With the thoughts you'd be thinkin

        June 1, 2016 at 4:02 am

  7. The thing with this state by state stuff is that the winner of the national popular vote almost always wins most of the states as well. The historical counter-examples of the national popular vote loser winning the Electoral College all turn out to involve close elections and involve massive and obvious amounts of fraud. The “red state/ blue state” type maps all involve close elections in the national popular vote. If someone gets a national popular vote margin of over 8%, which we haven’t seen since 1984, they win most of the states. Even a national popular vote margin of 6%, which we got (barely) in only three elections since 1984, takes most of the states.

    So a Trump national popular vote win almost certainly includes New Jersey. New Jersey, since it includes so many upscale suburbs compared to most states (and there is also a grifter culture that adds to this), has a pretty strung pro -White House Party and pro-establishment bias.

    I agree that Trump’s northeastern strategy should focus heavily on Pennsylvania, with some effort in New York mainly for the publicity, and he should let New Jersey fall into his lap if he wins nationally. TV ads run in Philadelphia, which he is going to do anyway,will be seen by many New Jersey voters.


    June 1, 2016 at 11:13 am

  8. I’d want to see the ethnic and income cross tabs on that poll. Trump wins (if at all) with the overwhelming support of white voters making under six figures, and I’d hazard a guess that New Jersey will be 51st out of 50 states and DC in the percentage of its voters which fall into that demographic.

    Suburban Dad

    June 1, 2016 at 3:39 pm

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