Lion of the Blogosphere

Three most recent polls look good for Trump

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Rasmussen: Trump +4
PPP: Clinton +4
Gravis: Clinton +2

This averages out to a very slight lead for Clinton, but we know that polls underpredict how well Trump will do in real-world voting because poll respondents are unwilling to admit to a pollster (even an automated pollster) that they intend to vote for a “racist” candidate. In the Brexit vote in the UK, Leave outperformed the polls by six points: the polls showed Remain +2 but the real-world results were Leave +4. Will a +2 lead for Clinton translate to a +4 lead for Trump in real-world voting?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 3, 2016 at 11:32 pm

Posted in Politics

47 Responses

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  1. I find the time lag effect from the night of the Orlando shooting to these recent polls interesting. It took a few weeks for the event to be reflected in the polling, but it is now registering. The shooting has also shaved a couple of points off of Obama’s recent approval ratings.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    July 4, 2016 at 12:09 am

    • I have a bad feeling something awful might happen to make a bang of the 4th of July.
      Unlike the Lion, I’d rather be wrong the prescient.

      On a slightly different topic, the Brexit vote and our Independence Day have gotten me thinking. As awful and hated as King George was, was he as unpopular and dysfunctional as our present Congress?

      Perhaps it’s time to vote to rescind the Declaration of Independence and re-elect that cute baby future King George?

      In 1776 our forefathers seceded from that Union and Kingdom. Maybe it’s time to put it back together again. We wouldn’t be alone in nostalgia for colonialism. Look at all those Merkel minions yearning to once again live under European rule…

      Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

      July 4, 2016 at 12:55 am

      • No way! Constitution is good, but a revolution may be in order. Have been reading George Washington letters for the 4th if July. That was a great man. What’s King George’s legacy? He was a bloody tyrant and nothing more. Patriots should have hung him up.

        Yakov

        July 4, 2016 at 3:02 pm

      • Declaration of Independence clearly spells out all the evil deeds of King George.

        Yakov

        July 4, 2016 at 8:02 pm

      • You’re truly an inspiration brother Yakov,

        Never stop learning. Curiosity to reflect on bigger questions even if it’s not on the syllabus or won’t be tested. Liberal arts and humanities are too important to confine to 4 expensive indebting years. They’re also too important and interesting to be ignored by people who actually work for a living.

        I’ve had some great philosophical chats with roofers and painters and hvac guys. There’s no need to drop names, invoke the great ones while quoting the classics. The concepts and ideas from the classics can be made accessible to anybody with the right wit and interest. Many guys with dirt under their fingernails have genuine curiosity and depth. People who pose the big questions can be found in all walks of life. In academia I’ve experienced too often those who attempt to intimidate their lesser credentialed “inferiors” rather than trying to make their big ideas accessible. Sad.

        Regarding the question of “loyalist” or “patriot” I’m not sure I’d have been a patriot. I’m sympathetic that taxes are the price of civilization and that the Crown was justified to raise taxes to pay for their defense of the colonies in the French and Indian War. Something about the American reflexive opposition to taxes strikes me as adolescent rebellion. It’s not that we Yanks are opposed to the services that taxes pay for. We only rise up when the bill comes.

        Reminds me of a story I once heard.

        My parents told me how they used to enjoy going to this fine restaurant. Whenever the bill came, they looked at the total… all that champagne and caviar… “Just send the bill to the grandchildren…”

        So I found that to be a great idea. So I went to the restaurant and the waiter of course recognized me right away. After dining I asked for the bill expecting to charge it to the grandchildren. When the bill came there must have been some mistake. The tab was for hundreds of meals… The waiter explained, “I’m afraid YOU are the grandchildren.”

        Whatever the ol’ Hannoverian King George’s sins were, the current baby King George would probably crush Trump or Hillary if he were eligible. We Yanks are suckers for a cutie.

        Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

        July 5, 2016 at 12:56 am

    • I have a bad feeling something awful might happen to make a bang of the 4th of July.

      If not today then ISIS may strike at any time they please since Obama has made it clear to them he’s delighted to see ISIS set off as many Muslim terrorist attacks as they want so long as he remains in power.

      As awful and hated as King George was, was he as unpopular and dysfunctional as our present Congress?

      Not sure it would be an improvement.

      Britain is not out of the globalist woods yet.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      July 4, 2016 at 12:34 pm

  2. Yes. Tons of secret Trump-supporters out there.

    JonN

    July 4, 2016 at 12:11 am

  3. Let’s talk about class!

    Our favorite AEI thinker in a tank has a survey going on
    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/do-you-live-in-a-bubble-a-quiz-2/

    Check it out.

    I can’t help feeling like I’m caught between two world. On the one hand I find many BoBo pleasures pretentious “emperor’s new clothes” On the other hand I’ve had a pretty cosmopolitan upbringing that makes it impossible to fit in with the salt of the earth proles. As much as I’m sure I’d enjoy the company of the pipefitters and HVAC guys like our beloved Yakov, I can’t imagine folks like that taking a guy like me seriously who doesn’t know how to make stuff and doesn’t enjoy to get dirty.

    If I had to choose between genuine content Proles or striving BoBo class x types, I’d be hard pressed to decide, but I probably choose 1st generation former prole.

    Regarding the mass market beer in the survey, give me a cold Coors light or Rolling Rock or Rainier over that awful microbrew sludge. Also give me some reliable TGIFridays or Chilis over some annoying overrated Hipsteria staffed by entitled tattooed jerks full of more attitude than they deserve.

    Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

    July 4, 2016 at 12:38 am

    • The best prole beer is Schlitz which is currently brewed according to its original recipe. In cans only. Unfortunately hard to find. It is not bitter, not thin, no aftertaste, not flavored like some craft beers. All you taste are the basic ingredients of beer: malted barley and hops.

      Mike Eisenstadt

      July 4, 2016 at 1:33 pm

    • You sound like me, i grew up in a working class/middle class family but i have a PhD and live in a college town surrounded by SWPLs galore. I can’t really relate to most proles nowadays but i can’t stand the pretentious SWPL/BoBo types. We need to form a club!

      i agree with this sentiment, 1st generation former proles are the best compromise:

      “If I had to choose between genuine content Proles or striving BoBo class x types, I’d be hard pressed to decide, but I probably choose 1st generation former prole.”

      JimBonobo

      July 4, 2016 at 1:33 pm

      • I’ll be the third member in your club. I imagine a lot of people in the Sailer-sphere fall into this 1st generation former prole category. It’s a tough road. Today, I’ll have to pretend to fit in with family members who are police, military, nurses aides, warehouse workers, welders . . . then next week, it’ll be back to SWPL land. I feel like Leo DiCaprio in The Departed.

        Seth Long

        July 4, 2016 at 2:28 pm

      • SWProle defines many of Lion’s readers. Growing up prole and wanted to become the arch-nemesis.

        The interesting feature of this blog, is that most comments aren’t aimed at high proles (vocational white collar types, with a soul crushing job at the office cubicle).

        JS

        July 4, 2016 at 6:36 pm

      • You can believe the proles have the moral edge for their honesty and hard physical work without actually wanting to spend time with them. Most upper- and middle-class jobs involve deception as a part of the job, which means it’s a lot harder to get people to tell you what they actually think. It’s a little hypocritical but it’s the way life works sometimes.

        SFG the second

        July 4, 2016 at 6:37 pm

      • I’ll join this club, too. I’m a carpenter’s son who went to medical school and became a psychiatrist, and don’t fully fit in with either proles or my SWPL colleagues.

        Hermes

        July 4, 2016 at 10:48 pm

      • Class X aren’t strivers. They are too busy traveling in Mexico looking for shady doctors to write them morphine prescriptions for kicks (that’s a Burroughs reference just FYI).

        SWPL’s merely appropriate the external trappings of counterculture to appear cool, while in their hearts remaining truly bourgeois, status-seeking, and materialistic. That’s why they are so loathsome. That’s what happened to the true counterculture. They became today’s superficial odious coolier-than-thou hipsters.

        Also, liberals don’t give a shit about learning about other cultures. If they did, they’d eventually become traditionalist conservatives. That’s what happened to me. When it comes to multiculturalism, SWPL’s only care about ethnic restaurants and of course, virtue signaling. They lack the intellectual rigor to understand anything more significant than that.

        shiva1008

        July 5, 2016 at 3:57 am

  4. Guy got his foot blown off stepping on a claymore in Central Park

    map

    July 4, 2016 at 12:41 am

  5. There was also a Quinnipiac Poll from last Wednesday with Trump down by 2 that first caught my notice. Once this Clinton/AG meeting gets baked in her numbers are going to tank, at least for a while. For some reason the MSM have been unable to suppress this story – so far at least.

    One feels that the country is waiting with bated breath for the end of Ramadan. More lies and obfuscation will not be easily digested, if at all.

    We live in interesting times.

    gda

    July 4, 2016 at 12:58 am

  6. The reason Trump’s share is underestimated is because of Gary Johnson.

    Orlando probably had no short-term effect on Trump.

    pithom

    July 4, 2016 at 2:00 am

  7. TUJ: I knew there would be a delayed reaction to those things. I didn’t expect a quick poll bounce for Trump or damage to big O. But as time goes on Obama’s approval has declined by 3 points and Trump has managed to keep from being a jackass for the past 2 weeks, the polls FINALLY started to trend in Trump’s direction again. I think we can confidently predict that the worst is over now on the polling front.

    Lion: The polling average for Brexit really wasn’t wrong, per se. They had it 47-47 with 6 undecided. It just so happened that the undecideds ended up breaking overwhelmingly for Leave, which makes sense given that is where the momentum was. As for Rasmussen, I think 2012 proved that they are utter garbage. Although reading Scott Rasmussen’s explanation for why they were so off is feasible. Then again, he’s no longer with the company that bears his name.

    I think if the election were held today Trump would lose by 3. What we need is another 3 no drama weeks so we can go to Cleveland with some momentum. There we will crush #NeverTrump for good and have a lot of great speakers: Milo, Sessions, Miller, Ivanka, Diamond and Silk, Christie, Giuliani, Huckabee, Carson, Palin, Melania, probable VP pick Mike Pence and of course, the man himself.

    Hopefully Trump can make it 3 weeks without saying that Japan should build nuclear weapons, women should go to jail for having abortions, the US debt should be repudiated or retweeting anti semitic 4chan memes.

    Otis the Sweaty

    July 4, 2016 at 3:10 am

    • I knew there would be a delayed reaction to those things. I didn’t expect a quick poll bounce for Trump or damage to big O. But as time goes on Obama’s approval has declined by 3 points and Trump has managed to keep from being a jackass for the past 2 weeks, the polls FINALLY started to trend in Trump’s direction again. I think we can confidently predict that the worst is over now on the polling front.

      I know, but it was interesting to time how long it took the event to ripple through polls.

      Based on two-way polls, Trump is in the low 40s and Hillary in the mid-40s. This means Trump could tie or pass her by simply winning over more Republicans or Republican leaning independents who say they will be voting third party or are ‘don’t know’s.

      In a three or four way race where independent candidates take more than 5%, Trump can win a plurality if he just holds onto Romney’s 47%.

      The polling average for Brexit really wasn’t wrong, per se. They had it 47-47 with 6 undecided.

      A quarter of British voted early by mail/ Those who did voted for leave. It seems that both sides were tied on election day but early voters, which many polls didn’t factor in, had built up too much of a lead for Remain to overcome.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      July 4, 2016 at 12:54 pm

    • ” think if the election were held today Trump would lose by 3. What we need is another 3 no drama weeks so we can go to Cleveland with some momentum. There we will crush #NeverTrump for good and have a lot of great speakers: Milo, Sessions, Miller, Ivanka, Diamond and Silk, Christie, Giuliani, Huckabee, Carson, Palin, Melania, probable VP pick Mike Pence and of course, the man himself.”

      I don’t see #nevertrump rolling over. I’m on a Wall Street Journal Facebook group and these guys would much rather torch the Republican Party then allow Trump to get near the White House. They will be trying to sabotage Trump during the convention and all the way to November. They are full on George Wills who would prefer a thousand Hillaries to one Trump.

      Mike Street Station

      July 5, 2016 at 10:37 am

      • I don’t see #nevertrump rolling over.

        Nevertrump consists of only a few hundred columnists. They are irrelevant now with Trump as the nominee.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        July 5, 2016 at 6:08 pm

  8. I am suspicious that polls are being used as propaganda.

    Clay Carlin

    July 4, 2016 at 7:45 am

    • The sky is blue.

      Panther of the Blogocube

      July 4, 2016 at 1:25 pm

    • This is actually done; it’s called a ‘push poll’. ‘Does knowing Donald Trump keeps a copy of Mein Kampf by his bed make you more or less likely to vote for him?’ ‘Less…wait, Trump reads Mein Kampf’?

      SFG the second

      July 4, 2016 at 6:35 pm

  9. Happy Fourth Lion!

    Black Death

    July 4, 2016 at 9:27 am

  10. I have 274 D 264 R. I think trump will flip ohio, pa, and michigan but the d’s will take fl IMO.

    uatu

    July 4, 2016 at 10:43 am

    • Sincerely doubt that D will take FL. If they do, the entire state can be written off forever. Immigration is the biggest reason you’d vote for Trump, and it’s the biggest issue facing FL.

      Panther of the Blogocube

      July 4, 2016 at 2:33 pm

      • Yes I’m really unclear if Republicans have much of chance in Florida again. Puerto Rico’s financial crisis has done it’s work, driving Puerto Ricans off the island the past couple of years right to Florida. You know where their vote goes. There better be a no Florida strategy for Trump.

        Mike Street Station

        July 5, 2016 at 10:40 am

  11. The best strategy is to endorse lyin’, corrupt Hillary and vote for neo-racist nationalist Trump to appease the globalist brainwashers.

    cesqy

    July 4, 2016 at 11:55 am

  12. Curle

    July 4, 2016 at 2:33 pm

  13. The tendency of the polled individual to report Clinton when he intended to vote Trump is one of the minor issues with these polls. A far bigger bias is the inability of the pollsters to anticipate how many ‘unlikely’ voters will vote. Trump is going to get middle aged and old prole whites who haven’t voted in 20 years to vote. The polling methodology is to use recent voting behavior as a indicator of ‘voter likelihood’. Another major source of error is the absurd way the populations are weighted in these polls. Typically self professed democrats are weighted at around 40% of the population, which is way too high.

    Economic Sophisms

    July 4, 2016 at 5:10 pm

  14. Here’s something you’ll appreciate since it’s on your beat: Jews are disproportionately going to be in the ‘say Clinton, vote Trump’ camp relative to other Trump supporters for sociological reasons. This means when Trump loses Jews will be blamed as he is likely to do worse than Romney at least in the polls if not in the actual election.

    SFG the second

    July 4, 2016 at 6:39 pm

  15. I think there is strong reason to think that the models on which polling are based will breakdown spectacularly this election season because of Trump’s candidacy. We have already seen that to some extent in the Republican primaries. But perhaps this is wishful thinking on my part.

    Right before the 2012 election, when most reliable polls showed Obama with a strong lead, Romney’s people convinced themselves that the polls were in error and that he would win. He seemed genuinely surprised when he didn’t, even though it seemed a foregone conclusion to most observers. I hope I am not falling into the same trap.

    verylongaccountname

    July 4, 2016 at 7:04 pm

  16. We, the Jews, study the laws of holidays before and on holidays and the weekly portion of the Torah during the week and on Shabbat of that week. In this spirit I usually read something from the revolutionary period around 4th of July. I think it enables you to connect with the event that we are celebrating. I think it’s a good idea for everybody. This year I read some of George Washington’s letters. It’s interesting that America had so many great secular leaders, much more then us, the Jews. Obviously, we are a religio-nation, but we haven’t really adapted to the modern world yet. There is a lot to be learned from the Founding Fathers. Call me naive, but I love American Revolution. At the family barbecue we had a discussion on which side each one of us would have been had we lived in those times. I know, I would have been with the Patriots, no question about it. When I read the Declaration of Independence, I get really mad at the British even today. Like I’ve said, call me naive but I’m crazy about that period. That was a time when America was great. So 4th of July should be the time for renewing our commitment to the ideas of the Revolution and Constitution. I beleive in this. Have a meaningful Independence Day mates!

    Yakov

    July 4, 2016 at 8:21 pm

    • Jews taking part in the American Revolutionary War was mostly a Sephardic affair. Names like Aaron Lopez and Jacob Rivera. Again, this demonstrates the superiority of the Hispanicism, even in the Anglo-Prole world!

      There were a few Askhenazis in the colonies, but they had a reputation as being loyalists, who sided with Britain.

      Sephardic Jews from Spain, were more honorable as a people.

      JS

      July 4, 2016 at 10:18 pm

      • Lion, JS shouldn’t be allowed to post on the 4th of July.

        Among investors, Polish-born Jewish immigrant Haym Solomon, played a significant role in financing the revolution. After being arrested as a spy by the British in 1776, Solomon was pardoned and served as an interpreter for the Hessians (German troops hired to fight for the British). In this role, Solomon helped prisoners escape and encouraged the Hessian mercenaries to desert, resulting in another arrest and a death sentence. Fortunately, Solomon managed to escape to the patriot capital, Philadelphia, where he used his financial acumen to support the rebels, lending thousands of dollars to the Continental Congress and advancing the American government $200,000 during the war effort. Solomon also supported his fellow Jews, becoming an influential member of Philadelphia’s Mikveh Israel Congregation and advocating to repeal the restrictive laws that barred non-Christians from serving in public office. In 1975, the United States Postal Service issued a stamp honoring Solomon as a “Financial Hero…responsible for raising most of the money needed to finance the American Revolution and later to save the new nation from collapse.”

        Yakov

        July 4, 2016 at 11:31 pm

      • Haym Solomon was one of those rare individuals of Spanish ancestry, who came from Poland. He was not really an Eastern European Jew.

        JS

        July 5, 2016 at 7:57 am

      • Since when do you care about America weasel?

        shiva1008

        July 4, 2016 at 11:57 pm

      • I don’t. Just making a comparison between Spanish Jews who took part in the American Revolutionary War, and the Ashkenazis, who were loyal to Britain.

        JS

        July 5, 2016 at 7:54 am

      • Clarification: my comment was of course directed to JS, the Muslim apologist and constant whiner about all things American.

        shiva1008

        July 5, 2016 at 3:49 am

      • Speaking of Muslims:

        http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3671500/Islamic-group-Muslim-man-beaten-outside-Mateens-mosque.html

        A guido in Florida was arrested for assaulting a Muslim.

        JS

        July 5, 2016 at 10:03 am

      • If you were paying attention you would know what I’m saying. Also, you would know that I don’t stoop to this level of discussion. Try to process this.

        Yakov

        July 5, 2016 at 8:36 am

      • Again, the Spanish Sephardim were the core group of Jews involved in the American Revolution, and not the Ashkenazim. And because they were more agreeable than their Ashkenazi counterparts, with their education and refined manners, they assimilated into America with ease — namely intermarriage with Gentiles that made their communities disappear. Furthermore, these traditionalist Spanish Jews viewed the Ashkenazim as beneath them, and were much more likely to intermarry with non-Jews.

        The analogy is this: SWPLs marry other SWPLs of other persuasions, more so than their own from the lower classes, and vice versa.

        Of course, Yakov, would think the Sephardics are a lost cause at the end, because they got absorbed, where as the Ashkenazim still has a very large community. Lower prolier groups always outnumber higher aristocratic groups.

        JS

        July 5, 2016 at 1:53 pm

      • “Furthermore, these traditionalist Spanish Jews viewed the Ashkenazim as beneath them”

        This part is true. My mother tells the story of a relative who was Sephardic and whose parents were very annoyed because she married an Ashkenazim. Or vice versa. I forget the exact details.

      • There were 2,000 Jews in the Colonial America out of the population of 2,500,000. The only generalization that can be made given such a small number is that Jews were disproportionately prominent as usual and raised hell.

        Yakov

        July 5, 2016 at 5:56 pm

  17. JS wrote: “Again, the Spanish Sephardim were the core group of Jews involved in the American Revolution,’ Total nonsense, as usual from this guy, the decree of expulsion for jews from Spain was proclaimed in 1492, with practically all spanish sephardic jews fleeing to the Netherlands,the levant and Morocco. It would have been almost impossible for them to embark to the americas, passport issuance was very restricted, how exactly would those spanish sephardic jews become involved in the american revolution 300 years after their expulsion from Spain?

    D.Gonzalez

    July 11, 2016 at 3:50 pm


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