Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump pulls ahead in the polls!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

Latest swing states polls show Trump leading Clinton in Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Theses are all states which Romney lost in 2012.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 13, 2016 at 8:19 am

Posted in Politics

28 Responses

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  1. Is this the Dallas/BLM effect?

    Glossy

    July 13, 2016 at 8:22 am

    • Might be more likely to be the Hillary non-indictment effect.

      IHTG

      July 13, 2016 at 10:17 am

  2. If he can’t keep and hold a lead until after the D convention, it’s over. It is very rare that the lead changes hands after both parties have had their conventions.

    Fiddlesticks

    July 13, 2016 at 8:35 am

    • Did Reagan have a lead leading up to the convention?

      DdR

      July 13, 2016 at 11:05 am

      • Yes, among likely voters. Much of “Carter leads” propaganda that people remember was based on “all respondents over 18” results.

        Fiddlesticks

        July 13, 2016 at 12:41 pm

  3. He’s been fairly quiet recently. In all seriousness, maybe that has something to do with it.

    Raoul Duke

    July 13, 2016 at 9:25 am

    • Scott Adams posted the exact same thing less than an hour after you did.

      ScarletNumber

      July 13, 2016 at 1:25 pm

      • I was reading Scott Adams for a while, but then I saw that his comments section had been turned off due to “racism” and that there had begun to be a note at the bottom of every post condemning “racism” and explaining that, because of “racists,” no comments could be allowed. So I stopped going, because I don’t think a blogger who would turn off his comments section due to “racism” is on my side.

        Perturabo

        July 13, 2016 at 4:25 pm

      • I understand completely why he had to turn off the comments. I delete the comments that Scott Adams does not have time to delete because he gets a hundred times as many comments as I do.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        July 13, 2016 at 4:48 pm

      • If you were to attach to every post a note broadly condemning “racism,” I wouldn’t come here either. Jew-haters are scum, but if that’s the problem then he should say that’s the problem. No comments allowed because of “racists” is what the liberal media do.

        Perturabo

        July 13, 2016 at 5:07 pm

      • If you were to attach to every post a note broadly condemning “racism,” I wouldn’t come here either.

        He has many more comments to monitor. Not practical for him to screen them out.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        July 13, 2016 at 6:00 pm

      • @Perturabo

        I saw he turned off his comments on a “temporary” basis but I missed the post explaining why. Do you have a link?

        ScarletNumber

        July 13, 2016 at 6:34 pm

      • @ScarletNumber – I don’t see it now. I remember a post about it, but maybe it has been deleted, or maybe he posted it in the comments section of one of the posts. Maybe someone else can direct us to it.

        Now that I look at the blog, I don’t see a “note condemning racism at the bottom of every post,” so I retract that claim. Sorry. I do remember seeing an initial, contemptuous post directed at “racists” though, and for some reason I thought he was putting a footnote on his posts explaining the reason for the ongoing lack of a comments section. But now I don’t see that at all.

        @The Undiscovered Jew – yeah, but we don’t know what Scott Adams considers to be vile racism that must be condemned. It may be a much broader category for him than it is for Lion.

        Perturabo

        July 14, 2016 at 1:21 am

  4. Good news. The 2016 election, like the last one, will be won or lost in the Great Lakes states plus Iowa. Romney lost all of them except Indiana. As of today, I’m not sure that the Dems have a lock on any of them. Trump is a native New Yorker, and I wonder if he could even carry that state. What think you, Lion?

    Black Death

    July 13, 2016 at 9:40 am

    • People place a lot of stock in whether a candidate can win their home state. I don’t think that applies in this election because Trump has never held office in New York whereas Hillary has. Not to mention, she’s lived there for 20 years. So Trump doesn’t really have a home state advantage there.

      Plus, New York is one of the most liberal Democrat states in the country. A Republican hasn’t won New York in a presidential election in almost 30 years. A better indicator would be whether Trump over-performs Republican candidates in New York from previous elections. That would suggest a strong candidacy that could win nationwide even if it’s not enough to actually win New York.

      destructure

      July 13, 2016 at 2:20 pm

    • The 2016 election, like the last one, will be won or lost in the Great Lakes states plus Iowa. Romney lost all of them except Indiana. As of today, I’m not sure that the Dems have a lock on any of them.

      The Rust Belt looks promising. I was more worried Trump would try to win the general election cheap: If Hillary is expected to spend $1 billion on the general election then I’d estimate Trump needs to spend $400 to $500 million.

      But with his campaign pulling in $50 million in June he looks on track to have enough money, both donated and from his own pocket, for the general election ad wars.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      July 13, 2016 at 6:06 pm

  5. Heh, I was chatting with a generic Republican on a political forum and he was saying the numbers don’t lie, Trump can’t win. Who did he think could win? Rubio or Kasich.

    Hilarious!

    Mike Street Station

    July 13, 2016 at 9:52 am

  6. Were these polls taken after Comey’s press conference? I’m guessing that played into them in a big way.

    rdorsey

    July 13, 2016 at 10:11 am

  7. But Lion, Trump is not doing as well in Mormon Utah as Romney did. Don’t you see that Trump is therefore doomed. Bozo Trump.

    Andrew E.

    July 13, 2016 at 10:29 am

  8. If Quinnipiac’s numbers are right then having Johnson and Stein in the race helps Trump, contrary to what some were saying, about Johnson especially. In Pennsylvania he goes from +2 in a pure head to head with Clinton, to +6 with the 3rd partiers included as options.

    However, I think we’re better off to focus on the head to head numbers. My experience is that 3rd party candidates tend to falter badly from their polling numbers on election day.

    Richard

    July 13, 2016 at 10:46 am

  9. Lion what’s your explanation?

    1. Comey/email corruption? (America will have moved on by November)
    2. Black lives matter backfiring?
    3. Misleading polls/poll skewing (Trump needs to be ahead at some point so that Hillary can scare her base and the media can drive home her comeback narrative)

    Rotten

    July 13, 2016 at 11:09 am

    • Explanation? Not difficult. Trump actually is a pretty good winning candidate who is right on the issues and has great rhetoric. And Hillary is a terrible candidate who is wrong on most everything and has terrible rhetoric.

      Andrew E.

      July 13, 2016 at 12:20 pm

      • Plus, Hillary is a sociopath. Really. An honest to goodness sociopath. A lot of Americans grasp that.

        Curle

        July 13, 2016 at 1:52 pm

    • 1 and 2 certainly had an impact. Gallup has Obama’s approval down to 49, whereas it had been as high as 54 a few weeks ago. Since Orlando it has been drip drip drip for Obama and that effects Hillary.

      Also the Trump campaign has tightened up. Trump is using a teleprompter and has cut down on his use of Twitter. Trump is finally running a general election campaign.

      Otis the Sweaty

      July 13, 2016 at 12:40 pm

      • Obama is a lot like Hillary to a lesser extent: the more he goes out in public and opens his mouth, the less people like him. They like the idea that he’s President more so than the reality… and that reality is now old news.

        Bilbo Baggins

        July 13, 2016 at 9:55 pm

    • Plus, Trump has a secret weapon that Hillary can only dream of. He’s fun:

      Andrew E.

      July 13, 2016 at 2:23 pm

    • Also the Trump campaign has tightened up. Trump is using a teleprompter and has cut down on his use of Twitter. Trump is finally running a general election campaign.

      Ivanka has grounded him. He has to use a teleprompter, he can no longer comment on twitter without her approval, and Ivanka has limited with whom he gives interviews to.

      If this latest round of polling is indicative Ivanka’s tactics are working.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      July 13, 2016 at 5:59 pm

  10. Manafort is doing his job.

    B.T.D.T.

    July 13, 2016 at 9:00 pm


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