Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump has 7-point lead in Rasumussen poll!

Link to poll

This is actually the same result as the CBS News/NY Times poll which showed a tie. Trump has a 6-point advantage in automated polls like the Rasmussen poll over live-interview polls like the CBS News/NY Times poll.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 14, 2016 at 11:52 am

Posted in Politics

10 Responses

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  1. “This is actually the same result as the CBS News/NY Times poll which showed a tie. Trump has a 6-point advantage in automated polls like the Rasmussen poll over live-interview polls like the CBS News/NY Times poll.”

    538 grades the polls. Rasmussen only gets a C+, with CBS/NY Times getting an A-.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

    Looking at this election cycle with Trump involved, no evidence that automated polls do better

    “The best-performing polls recently have been those from Monmouth University and those from Marist College. Both apply “gold standard” methodologies, using live telephone interviews and placing calls to cellphones as well as landlines, and both participate in the AAPOR Transparency Initiative. Quinnipiac University, another “gold standard” pollster, has also performed fairly well of late. So has Fox News, which switched to new polling partners in 2011 and has gotten good results since then.

    Automated polling firms have gotten mediocre results in recent years, especially SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports, although note that SurveyUSA has a long history of accurate polling and so retains a high grade overall. ”

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2016/

    Hepp

    July 14, 2016 at 12:01 pm

    • Nate Silver was the guy who predicted for months and months that Trump wouldn’t win the Republican nomination. Now he’s using the same failed methodologies to predict that Trump will lose again.

      • I agree he sucks in some ways, but it seems pretty straightforward to judge the accuracy of pollsters by how they perform. He actually got Trump wrong because he ignored the polls and his own methodology and just relied on historical analogy.

        Hepp

        July 14, 2016 at 12:15 pm

      • He’s ignoring the bias of live-interview polls with respect to Trump and other politically incorrect issues like Brexit.

      • 538 gets an F. No need to figure out if their ratings make sense or how skewed they are. Just move on to an outfit with a bit of credibility.

        Glengarry

        July 14, 2016 at 1:26 pm

      • Keep the focus on state by state polling.

        Especially Ohio, Penn, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida.

        Rifleman

        July 14, 2016 at 4:17 pm

  2. The longer Trump keeps his mouth shut, the better he looks.

    Raoul Duke

    July 14, 2016 at 1:01 pm

  3. I live in LDS country and must appease my social circle. I tell my spiritual acquaintances that I endorse Hillary, but in fact hide that I will vote for Donald when my secret ballot arrives in the mail.

    cesqy

    July 14, 2016 at 2:34 pm

    • You don’t need to appease anybody socially. Professionally? Sure, protect your livelihood. Quit being a little bitch

      G VIC

      July 14, 2016 at 5:00 pm

    • Your LDS “spiritual” circle requires that you support the baby killer who can’t say she’s against abortion even up to the moment of birth?

      Get a new spiritual circle. Sad!

      Andrew E.

      July 14, 2016 at 5:15 pm


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