Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump soaring in the polls

Trump is tied with Clinton in a new CBS News/NY Times poll.

This actually means Trump is well ahead because of the effect that Trump underperforms in live-interview polls because the respondent does not want to tell a live person that they intend to vote for the guy who’s condemned by liberals as racist. A tie in the poll means a strong lead for Trump in real-world voting.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 14, 2016 at 8:35 am

Posted in Politics

9 Responses

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  1. IHTG

    July 14, 2016 at 9:03 am

  2. Good trend. The previous CBS polls have been:

    March: +10 Clinton
    April: +10 Clinton
    May: +6 Clinton
    June: +6 Clinton
    July: tie

    The thing to be concerned about is that Trump hasn’t actually moved. He was getting 40% back in their March poll and he’s getting 40% now. What’s changed is that people who were supporting Clinton in the past have over time waffled off into the undecided or 3rd party category. They’ll eventually choose, but objectively their past behavior suggests they lean Clinton. Trump has got to get these people comfortable with the idea of voting for him.


    July 14, 2016 at 10:04 am

  3. His reaching out to Condi Rice for VP shows he doesn’t get it – when he’s right, he’s right by accident.

    Anyone halfway engaged knows that Rice is a dutiful teacher’s-pet type who got promoted way past her ability.
    1. lacking in frame control, gets explainey and defensive when questioned
    2. tactical not strategic thinker

    But all Trump saw, like McCain with Palin, was the gimmick. At least Rice was self-aware enough to say no.


    July 14, 2016 at 11:11 am

    • Media reports of Trump reaching out to Condi for VP could mean a thousand different things with equal probability, only one of which is that Trump was in fact really interested in her for VP and wanted to seriously talk with her about it.

      Andrew E.

      July 14, 2016 at 1:04 pm

      • Bingo.


        July 14, 2016 at 2:05 pm

  4. This is about 2 things: 1. Trump going (relatively) radio silent and 2. The collapse in Obama’s approval ratings. Obama has gone from 54% approval to 48% in Gallup.

    Otis the Sweaty

    July 14, 2016 at 12:42 pm

    • Blue lives matter in the polls.


      July 14, 2016 at 2:25 pm

  5. Especially interesting since Clinton has been outspending Trump by a massive amount. Something like a 30:1 ratio,

    Graf von Jung

    July 15, 2016 at 7:23 am

  6. Interesting – how much of this is in response to BLM in the headlines again?


    July 15, 2016 at 8:34 am

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