Lion of the Blogosphere

My track record with vice presidential prognostication

August 12, 2012, I wrote the following:

Romney has ignored my repeated advice to pick a boring Vice President.

The primary purpose of the VP pick is to demonstrate that the Presidential candidate has made a wise choice in choosing someone who is able to take over the government if the President dies and there’s a national emergency. The Presidential candidate should not choose a VP to generate excitement or to rally the base.

Ryan looks like a little kid and not like someone who’s ready to take over the government during a national emergency. That’s what I meant when I wrote in my previous post that he lacks gravitas. Romney apparently chose Ryan to generate excitement and rally the base, which is exactly what I previously said that he shouldn’t do.

I don’t think that Ryan is going to be as bad as Dan Quayle, Geraldine Ferraro, or Sarah Palin, but he’s not as good as Rob Portman. I think that Romney probably wanted to pick Portman, but he second-guessed himself and listened to bad advice. Just as McCain would have been better off with the guy he really wanted to pick, Lieberman, Romney would have been better off with Portman.

Romney went on to lose that election.

August 29, 2008, I wrote the following:

Sarah Palin looks to me like a Harriet Miers pick. As far as I can tell, her only qualification for the job is that she’s Christian. Besides two years as governor of Alaska, her only other experience is as the Mayor of Wasilla, a town I’ve never heard of before. She’s married to a blue collar guy who hasn’t graduated from college. She has a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Idaho, which sounds like a pretty bogus school. She’s a beauty contest winner who likes to hunt, fish, eat mooseburgers, and who won’t abort a child with Down’s Syndrome. This all sounds depressingly borderline high prole/lower middle class.

The state of Alaska has a population of only 670,000, so being the governor isn’t as impressive as it sounds. There’s more competition to become the mayor of Columbus Ohio, a city with a bigger population than the entire state of Alaska.

McCain’s an old guy who could die while he’s in office. Is Sarah Palin really ready to take over?

After the excitement over picking a woman dies down, this is going to seriously backfire. I’m very depressed.

Of course we know what happened. Sarah Palin was the most mocked and ridiculed vice-presidential pick in history. The very same day that McCain made that pick, I wrote that, before I knew all of the bad stuff that came out during the two weeks after that.

Pence is a way better pick than Palin or Ryan. I’m always right about vice-presidential picks.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 16, 2016 at 9:45 pm

Posted in Politics

37 Responses

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  1. This blog only goes back to December 2012 #confused


    July 16, 2016 at 10:00 pm

    • There was an earlier version of this blog that preceded this version.

      Mike Street Station

      July 17, 2016 at 8:43 am

      • Yes, I used to comment there. I am sad to report that it has been taken over by something unrelated.


        July 18, 2016 at 1:27 am

  2. Lol. Come on man, your recommendations for Trump were terrible. Trump made a better choice then you. I know you are trolling us, you can’t be serious.


    July 16, 2016 at 10:01 pm

  3. While I am happy to see you, Lion, remember fondly your earlier blogging days, which I remember fondly too, God is not going to let you get even half of what you want in this world as long as you think it is depressing to kindly and with a good heart Refuse to abort a poor little child who Might have Down’s syndrome (Down’s syndrome only means that the person with those genes will be slightly more unattractive than normal -although almost never morbidly obese – and will be slightly closer, from a brainpower point of view, to the dumber commenters on this blog than to the smarter commenters on this blog). If reading the Tanakh does not do it for you, buy some commentaries on the Prophets or read up on what happened to the 20th century PUA dude avant la lettre King David when he decided he was better than everyone else. He would have been better off to never have been a king.

    howitzer daniel

    July 16, 2016 at 10:02 pm

    • The average IQ of people with Down syndrome is around 50, though with a lot of variation. Also, around 40% of Down syndrome children are born with heart defects, and they have a significantly increased risk of developing leukemia. I’m not saying it’s right to abort a Down syndrome fetus, but your characterization of life with the syndrome is too optimistic.


      July 17, 2016 at 1:00 am

    • and will be slightly closer, from a brainpower point of view, to the dumber commenters on this blog than to the smarter commenters on this blog

      What do you mean by that? The only way to be slightly closer to the dumber commentors than the smarter commentors is to be in between those two groups in intelligence or for there to be no very little difference between the smarter and dumber commentors. Map it out on the number line and see for yourself!


      July 17, 2016 at 3:53 am

      • I should have worded my observation on IQ and trisomy 21 this way – There are some comments on every highly commented blog that are so unreasonable that a high-performing person with Down Syndrome could easily have produced a better comment on the same subject. I agree the original wording is probably over-optimistic and is incorrect with respect to a theoretical number line ranking commenters by estimated IQ.

        howitzer daniel

        July 17, 2016 at 9:07 am

  4. Palin was a wildcard pick that was neither good nor bad. It did help McCain in Alaska, but that’s about it. Every sensible person knew that victory in the 2008 Democratic Primary was Tantamount To Election -what kind of sane person would vote for the Party of Bush II (apparently, a lot of Greater Appalachians)?

    BTW, Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly won the White vote in 2008. Only the Black vote saved her from the Vermonter Candidate this time around.

    Ryan was a terrible pick -made Romney look elitist, not caring about the elderly or poor, a fan of tax cuts for the rich. And he didn’t even perform that well among the rich -they were mostly into social liberalism, especially in the rich states.

    Economic coincidences keep grinding the Republican presidential candidate’s vote share. Sad! But, as a consolation, one as verbally unskilled as Bush II could swing 11 states against a boring establishment southern Beltway politician when the economy was good.


    July 16, 2016 at 10:46 pm

    • Palin was a wildcard pick that was neither good nor bad.

      Come on, she was one of the worst picks ever. McCain was bad enough on his own and then he picked her after listening to Bill Kristol (yes that idiot).



      July 17, 2016 at 12:53 am

      • McCain got more votes because of Palin, not less. He would have lost worse without her.

        For a long time after the election I kept seeing “McCain-Palin” stickers with “McCain” scraped off, leaving just “Palin”.


        July 17, 2016 at 8:16 am

      • “McCain got more votes because of Palin, not less.”

        Actual analysis of things like exit polls show that the mainstream media narrative, that Palin cost McCain votes, is correct.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        July 17, 2016 at 9:07 am

      • Nah. Palin was a net plus for McCain including with independents and moderates.


        July 17, 2016 at 10:07 am

      • McCain picked Palin because he was a RINO and everyone knew it. He was desperate for someone who could energize the base. Palin was a good cheerleader if a bad pick. Still, as Leon points out, picking an exciting VP is a bad strategy. If you need a VP to energize supporters then you’re already in trouble. Regardless of Palin’s affect, 2008 was going to be a loss no matter who ran. At that point, it was obvious Bush’s wars were a mistake. Plus, the real estate bubble popped creating a banking crisis.


        July 17, 2016 at 1:51 pm

      • If she was one of the worst picks ever, then how did McCain win such a large portion of the White vote? He would have lost it had his pick been genuinely bad.


        July 17, 2016 at 2:45 pm

      • There was zero interest in John McCain.

        Where is the rabid McCain wing today? Can McCain come into town and draw a huge crowd or sway an election? Because Palin can. Palin still drive a lot of energy and attention in the party.

        “My track record with vice presidential prognostication”

        Well there is the humiliating part to where you claimed that Sarah Palin faked the birth of her special needs child and you demanded to see a birth certificate. That absurd trail of posts continued over a year and wiped out any cred you have about VP analysis.

        Lion of the Turambar

        July 18, 2016 at 9:35 am

      • “Well there is the humiliating part to where you claimed that Sarah Palin faked the birth of her special needs child and you demanded to see a birth certificate. That absurd trail of posts continued over a year and wiped out any cred you have about VP analysis.”

        There’s a lot of weird, suspicious, unexplained stuff surrounding the birth of Trig.

  5. McCain’s an old guy who could die while he’s in office. Is Sarah Palin really ready to take over?

    In retrospect, McCain didn’t die before 2016, so there was nothing to worry about.

    Also in retrospect, we would have been better off with Palin as President than Obama. But heck even my cat could do a better job than that idiot.


    July 16, 2016 at 11:04 pm

  6. I think that Pence and Ryan are/were decent enough VP picks. Palin was bad though. She has no business being in politics at any level or capacity. She can’t even raise her kids properly.


    July 17, 2016 at 2:01 am

    • Neither could Regan, yet . . .
      In Palin’s favor, she renegotiated royalties with the oil companies as governor. She got some corrupt officials fired. She sold the governor’s private plane. She opened up a pipeline project to open bidding.
      She wasn’t a bad governor, but she did scare the democrats, and they pulled all the stops out on her.

      Half canadian

      July 17, 2016 at 11:40 am

  7. Don’t worry about your pick. The Trump votes won’t be counted anyway. We live in BRA.


    July 17, 2016 at 2:20 am

  8. Picking Palin was the savviest move McCain made in 2008. Remember, McCain only won the nomination that year because Huckabee and Romney split the not-McCain majority. The base didn’t like McCain much, but they liked Palin a lot. She electrified them.

    And McCain was ahead in the polls for a while after he selected Palin.

    Then Lehman collapsed, McCain lost his cool, Obama kept his, and that was the end of it.

    David Pinsen

    July 17, 2016 at 3:37 am

    • This is the way I remember things too.


      July 17, 2016 at 8:59 am

    • “The base didn’t like McCain much, but they liked Palin a lot. She electrified them.”

      Agreed, but I think it was the Katie Couric interview that slammed the brakes on her momentum. Whatever the reality — claims they asked her the same questions over and over to get clips that made her look stupid — the end result was a widely viewed interview that made Palin look like an idiot. Whatever tiny deference the media might have given her for being a woman ended with that, and it was all-mockery, all the time. I think political nerds underestimate the effectiveness of media mockery on the average voter. Most people vote feelz, not issues, and a lot of people just weren’t going to vote for someone that “everybody” makes fun of.

      Even though Trump is relentlessly mocked, the mockery seems stuck with the people who despise him from the get-go. It’s not washing over into the general voter, because Trump is so good at fighting back and never trying to apologize for the lies that others tar him with.


      July 17, 2016 at 1:44 pm

  9. Little discussed that the most competent VP is recent memory is Cheney, who has an extraordinary IQ, was CEO of a fairly large oil/defence company (and not some bogus ‘advisor’/board member job that politicians usually get after office), long track record in the Ford, Nixon, Bush I admins and very strong emotional control, verbal intelligence and temperament.

    He is also the worst in terms of effect in recent memory.

    In a funny way, Sarah Palin/Dan Quayle would perhaps do less damage than Cheney as president (as he de facto was) not out of lack of smarts but lack of vileness.

    The Philosopher

    July 17, 2016 at 3:43 am

    • Not sure what Cheney’s “bad effect” was. He wasn’t calling the shots. He didn’t want to do anything that the rest of the administration didn’t want to do.


      July 17, 2016 at 8:14 am

    • The “funny” part about Cheney is that if you look at his career he was always a centrist, bi-partisan congressman.

      How morphed into a evil hard line manipulator reflects on the Press.

      Republicans can only be seen through the prism of Evil or Stupid. Nothing else is permitted.

      Lion of the Turambar

      July 18, 2016 at 12:49 pm

      • This is the infuriating part of the media. There is no consideration of the other side. Bush was Hitler (until he wasn’t), Romney gave people cancer, Cheney was the puppet master, and the Koch brothers are everything wrong with America.
        Yet all of these people could be described as centrists in an objective manner (even the Kochs, who hold positions on the left and right). This is how you get a bombast like Trump. Its the media who cried Hitler (note, Trump is NOT Hitler, but he is vulgar).

        Half canadian

        July 18, 2016 at 3:50 pm

  10. I’m not sure you proved your case that your prognostications were “right” since I don’t think there is any evidence that the picks of Palin or Ryan ultimately had any influence on the outcome of those elections.

    What’s your predictions for this year’s race?

    Mike Street Station

    July 17, 2016 at 8:48 am

  11. Um, Lion – do you remember when you said that Trump would pick Susanna Martinez? Or did you say he should?

    I mostly agree with you except for your sneering dismissal of U Idaho, usually coupled with groveling before the Ivies. The land grant state university system is the glory of the American republic, and I’m certain that it’s more difficult to get a physics degree from U Idaho:

    than it is to get an art degree from Yale.


    July 17, 2016 at 9:30 am

    • I didn’t say Trump would pick her, I said the GOP elite would pick her instead of Trump if there was a contested convention, but I was wrong about that, and it was before I realized that the Cruz Monster had all of the delegates locked up as far as their loyalty goes.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 17, 2016 at 9:40 am

    • It’s much harder to get into Yale, any schmuck can get into the University of Idaho.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 17, 2016 at 9:41 am

      • That’s not what he said though.

        Getting IN to HYP is hard. Getting the degrees AFTER you get in is easy. A science degree from a state university is certainly harder to obtain (as well as more useful in real life) than a liberal arts degree from HYP.


        July 17, 2016 at 10:10 am

      • Lion, it is not true that anyone can get into the U Idaho, and if you grow up in a certain background, it’s not hard to get into Yale. I know from personal experience, OK?

        Anyway, more important, three cops were just shot dead in Baton Rouge. The beast is out of the cage.


        July 17, 2016 at 12:03 pm

  12. Pence was exactly what Trump needed: a Midwestern red-state governor. Someone like Christie would have been fine with me, but as we saw from Ted Cruz’s “New York values” comment, lots of Republican base voters are wary of coastal elites and would have been put off by a Trump-Christie ticket. Pence should help such voters feel more comfortable with Trump.


    July 17, 2016 at 12:45 pm

    • Trump was going to win the South and Midwest by massive margins anyway. It doesn’t help him at all. He may even have been better with a black man of some sort on the ticket. If he could win any of Florida/NY/Cali/Carolinas hes got a very good probability of winning by default.

      The Philosopher

      July 18, 2016 at 1:27 am

      • Not that it matters because BLM has given him the election.

        The Philosopher

        July 18, 2016 at 2:14 am

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