My track record with vice presidential prognostication
August 12, 2012, I wrote the following:
Romney has ignored my repeated advice to pick a boring Vice President.
The primary purpose of the VP pick is to demonstrate that the Presidential candidate has made a wise choice in choosing someone who is able to take over the government if the President dies and there’s a national emergency. The Presidential candidate should not choose a VP to generate excitement or to rally the base.
Ryan looks like a little kid and not like someone who’s ready to take over the government during a national emergency. That’s what I meant when I wrote in my previous post that he lacks gravitas. Romney apparently chose Ryan to generate excitement and rally the base, which is exactly what I previously said that he shouldn’t do.
I don’t think that Ryan is going to be as bad as Dan Quayle, Geraldine Ferraro, or Sarah Palin, but he’s not as good as Rob Portman. I think that Romney probably wanted to pick Portman, but he second-guessed himself and listened to bad advice. Just as McCain would have been better off with the guy he really wanted to pick, Lieberman, Romney would have been better off with Portman.
Romney went on to lose that election.
August 29, 2008, I wrote the following:
Sarah Palin looks to me like a Harriet Miers pick. As far as I can tell, her only qualification for the job is that she’s Christian. Besides two years as governor of Alaska, her only other experience is as the Mayor of Wasilla, a town I’ve never heard of before. She’s married to a blue collar guy who hasn’t graduated from college. She has a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Idaho, which sounds like a pretty bogus school. She’s a beauty contest winner who likes to hunt, fish, eat mooseburgers, and who won’t abort a child with Down’s Syndrome. This all sounds depressingly borderline high prole/lower middle class.
The state of Alaska has a population of only 670,000, so being the governor isn’t as impressive as it sounds. There’s more competition to become the mayor of Columbus Ohio, a city with a bigger population than the entire state of Alaska.
McCain’s an old guy who could die while he’s in office. Is Sarah Palin really ready to take over?
After the excitement over picking a woman dies down, this is going to seriously backfire. I’m very depressed.
Of course we know what happened. Sarah Palin was the most mocked and ridiculed vice-presidential pick in history. The very same day that McCain made that pick, I wrote that, before I knew all of the bad stuff that came out during the two weeks after that.
Pence is a way better pick than Palin or Ryan. I’m always right about vice-presidential picks.