Lion of the Blogosphere

Convention analysis, Thursday afternoon

So far, the Trump campaign did a pretty good job of following my advice.

Especially, Trump’s three main politician-supporters—Christie, Giuliani, and Newt—all kept to my game plan and focused on terrorism, supporting the police, and attacking Hillary. None of those three mentioned anything about taxes, abortion, or even Obamacare (if I remember correctly).

Trump’s ace in the hole has been his children. Donald Jr. and Eric both hit home runs with their speeches. Everyone is saying that if Trump raised such great children, then he can’t be all bad. I think that Team Hillary was not expecting that to be so effective and there is probably a lot of fear over there.

The Melania gaffe (copying from Michelle Obama’s speech) was a slight misstep, but I don’t think it did any significant harm.

Trump did very well with his pick of Mike Pence. Pence has an aura of gravitas which is exactly what’s needed in a vice presidential candidate. And Pence being a hardcore conservative, combined with all of the speeches about the Supreme Court, have won over the conservative Cruz supporters. We saw how effectively Trump won everyone over when Cruz gave his dastardly “vote your conscience” speech. He received boos from all over the convention floor, and even most of his supporters think he was being a sore loser and a jerk. If Trump loses, which I don’t think will happen, but if it does, then Pence and not Cruz is going to be positioned to win the nomination in 2020.

There’s the question of whether Cruz inadvertently helped Trump with his speech. Cruz is definitely being seen as a sore loser and a jerk and I don’t think anyone who would have voted for Trump is going to vote against him because of the Cruz speech. The main downside is that Cruz made the evening about himself, and consequently the talking heads on the news channels are spending a lot more time talking about Cruz than they are about topics which might be more beneficial for Trump, such as the Eric Trump speech or Mike Pence’s gravitas. On the other hand, if the talking heads are talking about Cruz then they aren’t talking about how Pence has flip-flopped on many positions in order to join with Trump.

* * *

Newt’s speech last night was pretty damn impressive. To counter the argument from Hillary that you shouldn’t vote for Trump because it’s too dangerous to have his finger on the nuclear button, Newt talked about a nuclear terrorist attack on an American city, and the message was that it’s too dangerous to vote for Hillary because if she becomes president, she will do nothing to fight terrorism and the result could be a nuclear terrorist attack. Scare tactics work. Remember the Daisy commercial?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 21, 2016 at 1:59 pm

Posted in Politics

28 Responses

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  1. Anyone else surprised to learn Pence is only 57? Looks much older to me. I was gonna say he’ll be too old in 2020, but he won’t even be too old in 2024 after two Trump terms.

    Nauseating to see all the Cruzbots yammering about muh principles. Makes me feel like Otis the Sweaty – “die, stupid TruCons, die die die!”


    July 21, 2016 at 2:09 pm

    • Nauseating to see all the Cruzbots yammering about muh principles.

      Yeah, muh …. “I’m a Constitutional Conservative (whatever the hell that means), my Bible, muh wife and kids……..duh”.

      Cruz is a disaster for Cruz. He’s an autistic dork with delusions of grandeur because his dad thinks he’s Jesus 2.0.

      The guy can’t help himself. Now you know why all the Republicans in the House and Senate hate him.

      Cruz is helping Trump esp with independents and Democrats who will flip. Cruz is seen as the old Republican party, creepy, out of touch.

      By comparison Trump seems personable and pragmatic.


      July 21, 2016 at 6:00 pm

  2. I think the Cruz flap worked to Trump’s favor. And I have to think that Trump must have known that was going to happen, since he knew the contents of the speech and knew Cruz wasn’t going to endorse him. That’s actually a brilliant move on Trump’s part.

    Mike Street Station

    July 21, 2016 at 2:28 pm

  3. “If Trump loses, which I don’t think will happen, but if it does, then Pence and not Cruz is going to be positioned to win the nomination in 2020.”

    I agree. I think the Chamber of Commerce/GOPe candidate to beat in 2020 will be Nikki Haley or possibly Rubio, and the flyover prole wing of the party’s favorite will be Pence.

    Two in the Bush

    July 21, 2016 at 2:31 pm

  4. yet another example of Trump being completely incompetent- in addition to him not hiring state organizers, starting a data operation, reserving ad time, setting up a fund raising network. In short Trump is terrible about every part of this job except the part where it involves talking about himself.

    Every single night has been off message. Tuesday and Wednesday were all about stealing a speech from Michelle Obama. Well at least what we would understand from the mumble mouth ruskie who assured everyone she personally wrote it. Hint: Its kind of obvious that “his word is his bond ” is cribbed when referring to the serial philander Trump.

    Then the unhingded Christ Christie tries to start some kind of lynch mob. Oops not good optics and they spend another day off message.

    Yesterday was supposed to be about introducing Mike Pence and having him forefront. But, yet another blown night because Trump has his idiotic guido bully boys out front complaining about an explicit endorsement Trump knew he wasnt going to get. They object to Cruz telling people to vote for candidates who are going to protect the Constitution! Trump thinks he is bigger than the Constitution- yeeesh.

    And so there is another day spent off message.

    Trump could have accepted the speech as a tacit endorsement, and come out on stage and shaken hands and they would have waved to the crowd and everyone would have taken it as an endorsement. Instead he had his team of team of yellow hatted thugs out stirring up discontent and as Politco wrote “Trump, sat there sullen, stone-faced and jut-jowled “.

    Lion of the Turambar

    July 21, 2016 at 2:33 pm

    • Hey Lion, who knew that Ted Cruz reads your blog and posts under “Lion of the Turambar”!


      July 21, 2016 at 3:15 pm

      • ha ha! Ted seems pretty bent out of shape about last night! Must have realized his career in national politics is over.

        Sagi Is My Guru

        July 21, 2016 at 7:45 pm

  5. Scare tactics work.

    Lion, I think you’re hinting at something important here. Can you imagine what this convention would be like with the usual milquetoast republican Bush, McCain, Romney in charge instead of Trump? I hear a lot of angst in the mainstream media about how negative this convention is, how dark and mean towards Hillary (lock her up!).

    Trump’s pugnaciousness over the last 12 months has given permission to and unleashed the full capability of the Repubs best attackers (and uncovered heretofore unknown reserves of fighting spirit) to really take it to the Dems (who have been experts at this for 50 years) for the first time in my lifetime. It’s really something to behold.

    Andrew E.

    July 21, 2016 at 2:37 pm

  6. “The Melania gaffe (copying from Michelle Obama’s speech) was a slight misstep, but I don’t think it did any significant harm.”

    The only people who care are rabid Dems who would never vote for Trump anyway, and they sure didn’t care when Obama, Biden and any number of Democratic politicians lifted lines from other speeches. If anything, I think the attention the media has given to the Melania speech is having a “Boy Who Cried Wolf” effect. If the media lost its mind about that, they’re clearly just out to be mad about Trump, so their future accusations against him will likely have less weight.

    “There’s the question of whether Cruz inadvertently helped Trump with his speech.”

    Almost everyone now thinks that Ted Cruz is a slimeball. From now on, a lot of Republicans who don’t want to vote for Trump will have to deal with the negative association of “voting their conscience.” It will be a lot easier for Trump supporters to tell other Republicans that they shouldn’t act like Cruz and get in line already.

    On the other hand, Cruz did much to derail an otherwise rock solid Wednesday night, so a lot of voters will associate Trump with chaos and disorder, which are associations Trump needs to run away from by November.


    July 21, 2016 at 2:37 pm

  7. Newt’s attack on Cruz was so sharp and so well delivered that I think he earned himself something good. Ambassador to Great Britain, perhaps?


    July 21, 2016 at 2:57 pm

    • I think that Trump wants to give jobs to Newt, Christie and Giuliani. I’m not so sure about Ben Carson; Trump is surely grateful that Ben Carson supported him, but secretly Trump has to think he’s a weirdo. Notice how Trump has kept Palin at a distance. He wants nothing to do with her.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 21, 2016 at 3:11 pm

      • Trump should put Carson in charge of destroying the Department of Education. That’s a position that should be held by someone on the autism spectrum. Carson is the kind of guy who would carefully review the facts and then call a press conference to tell the world that education can’t make stupid people smarter, and that most people shouldn’t be going to college.

        Horace Pinker

        July 21, 2016 at 3:22 pm

      • I think that Newt would become Secretary of State or Ambassador to Great Britain. I’d prefer the latter, because Newt is a terrible manager, and Ambassador to Great Britain is the greatest sinecure in the federal government. Trump could also call Gingrich for his advice when he’s thinking things over at 2:00 AM.

        Giuliani is a no-brainer for Homeland Security or something similar. General Flynn will likely be Secretary of Defense. I think that Christie could be Attorney General, but after Bridgegate, Christie would be vulnerable to attack as being a hatchet man, a Trumpist Eric Holder.

        I agree completely about Ben Carson. Trump would like to reward him, but after his bizarre remarks about Lucifer, I’m sure Trump can’t help but wonder if, as Surgeon General, Carson wouldn’t go on to make pronouncements that the Bible is more effective for depression than meds, sex before marriage causes breast cancer, etc.

        I think that Trump is willing to let Palin stump for him and let her reward be getting the attention she has craved since her reality TV show washed out.


        July 21, 2016 at 3:37 pm

      • Homeland Security would be a waste of Giuliani’s talents. When I lived in DC I was told DHS is a sinkhole of low IQ minorities who were transferred over from other departments who were eager to rid themselves of ‘underperforming employees’.

        Rudy for FBI Director and Christie for Attorney General.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        July 21, 2016 at 5:30 pm

    • The actual title is Ambassador to the Court of St James’s #facts


      July 22, 2016 at 1:04 am

  8. Most amazing thing? Lion finally found a social conservative who he thinks has gravitas!


    July 21, 2016 at 3:08 pm

  9. How many people watch this convention anyway? Aren’t they just watching NetFlix or playing Pokemon Go?


    July 21, 2016 at 3:16 pm

    • About 10 million to 15 million per night, but a much smaller number watching very evening for several hours like I do.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 21, 2016 at 3:25 pm

    • The fact that few people watch but many hear snippets on the morning news is why something like Melania’s plagiarism is a potential problem–the plagiarism may be the only thing reported on drive time radio (for example) so that’s the only thing millions of voters will know about the entire night.


      July 21, 2016 at 5:35 pm

      • Yeah, yeah. If that were true, meaning we’re totally at the mercy of what the MSM decides to cover the morning after then there is no hope regardless. They will find something, no matter how inconsequential (like this Melania thing!) and play it up all day and ride the Dems to victory.

        Fortunately, we’re no longer at the mercy of the evil press. So hope abounds!

        Andrew E.

        July 21, 2016 at 6:01 pm

  10. My personal opinion is the Cruz debacle makes Trump look weak. The Trump team had the text of Cruz’s speech. The NY delegation obviously had the text or had been instructed to start booing at the point in the speech they did. Trump obviously planned to enter the hall to distract attention from Cruz’s speech.

    But why on earth did Trump allow Cruz to give this speech in the first place? Doe Cruz have some dirt on Trump that he used to blackmail him? This is Trump’s convention. Trump was under no obligation to let Cruz give this speech. Why did Trump let Cruz publicly humiliate the Trump campaign this way?


    July 21, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    • Because Trump is stupid. Everything he does is about a cult of personality not doing things to earn votes.

      There is a 50/50 chance he ad libs another attack on the Trump University judge tonight.

      Lion of the Turambar

      July 21, 2016 at 4:04 pm

      • Give it up Ted. You shot your bolt last night. Unfortunately for you, it was pointed at your own head..


        July 21, 2016 at 5:31 pm

      • Lion of the Turambar….is another Hillary campaign worker sent to negatively comment on Trump in the alt right sphere.

        All anti-Trump talking points.


        July 21, 2016 at 5:44 pm

      • I’ve been a commentor for something like 12 years.

        Trump is a Johnny come lately who wasnt a Republican 4 years ago and wont be one come 2017.

        A couple of years from now everyone is going claim that they were the ones who cheered Ted in Cleveland. And the parade of miserable toadies who came by to lick Trumps boots in exchange for a crumbs of his worthless attention (like Christie) going to be seen as having thoroughly disqualified them from any leadership position.

        Ted has the courage to speak his mind and stay with his convictions regardless of the jeers and the threats by Trumps bully boys to him and his wife(!).

        We are going to need someone with character look after the NY Republicans have slunk off the stage and gone back to losing elections and cutting side deals with Sheldon Silver.

        Lion of the Turambar

        July 21, 2016 at 6:50 pm

    • What in the world are you talking about?? Cruz did not humiliate the Trump campaign, he humiliated himself. It’s all over social media and the alternative media which are the new media.

      Andrew E.

      July 21, 2016 at 4:56 pm

      • Trump is suppose to be the Alpha male that dominated Cruz in the primaries. Now Trump let Cruz come to Trump’s convention and dis-Trump. The impression this leaves is Trump can not even control his own convention. Not Alpha.


        July 21, 2016 at 9:46 pm

  11. Cruz’s speech is a plus for Trump because Cruz pleased no one. Cruz was too cowardly to directly attack Trump in a way that would drive away voters. At the same time Cruz looked slimy for not endorsing the party’s nominee. Since Cruz was the strongest anti-Trump candidate during the primary, any voters who supported Cruz and who were hesitant to endorse Trump will now rethink whether they were right to support Cruz in light of his duplicity. Ultimately those voters who have new doubts about Cruz will rationalize away their earlier mistake by voting for Trump.

    Advantage – Trump.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    July 21, 2016 at 5:25 pm

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