Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump’s horse is out in front this morning

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Democrats must be seriously worried now.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 25, 2016 at EST am

Posted in Politics

41 Responses

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  1. TRUMP!

    Sagi Is My Guru

    July 25, 2016 at EST am

  2. Hopefully this will cause some Bernie supporters to sit out, especially young liberal white males who get turned off by all of the pandering to BLM.

    Camlost

    July 25, 2016 at EST am

    • …especially young liberal white males who get turned off by all of the pandering to BLM.

      Those types of guys are probably turned on by it more than turned off.

      It’s fundamental to White left/liberal “street cred” to be pro BLM.

      What’s turns them off is Martin O’Malley saying “All Lives Matter”.

      Bad, very bad.

      He had to apologize for that one. LOL.

      Rifleman

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

      • I dunno… some white male pro-Sanders types are fairly moderate left and are quietly bristling at the clear anti-white-male rhetoric starting to grow within the Democratic Party. Many of them aren’t complete sheeple and although they won’t have the balls to cross over and support Trump they could sit out the election entirely.

        Camlost

        July 25, 2016 at EST pm

      • Some time back on a Reddit post site that was pro Bernie, them white liberals were calling blacks ignorant fools for following Hilliary. Almost sounded like the republicans who claim the democrats keep them on the plantation. Most white male Bernie supporters could give a shit about BLM. They want free school and Netflix for life.

        K.l. Asher

        July 25, 2016 at EST pm

      • He didn’t have to apologize.

        K.l. Asher

        July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  3. They’ll be worried if he keeps the lead after their convention.

    IHTG

    July 25, 2016 at EST am

  4. By itself, not so much good for Trump so much as not bad for him. Post-convention bumps are normal.

    JayMan

    July 25, 2016 at EST am

    • no there not. all the pundits have been pointing out it’s the first post-convention bump since 2000 when bush and gore both got 8 point bumps.

      dsgntd_plyr

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • *they’re

      dsgntd_plyr

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • Any thoughts yet on the genetic basis of psychedelic nerdism, JayMan? Jimi and I are waiting for your insights.

      Garr

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

      • All human behavioral traits are heritable, right?

        JayMan

        July 25, 2016 at EST pm

      • I agree with that.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        July 25, 2016 at EST pm

      • Right, so I was wondering whether you think that Black American sci-fi/fantasy-nerds such as Hendrix get their imaginative proclivities through their NW European lineage.

        Garr

        July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  5. Not really. They are still doing their “All is well” schtick. And it isn’t just for public consumption, either. They really don’t think Trump can win.

    After Hillary gets 0 convention bounce they might start to worry a little, but I suspect it will be like Brexit where they insist Trump has no chance all the way up until the end.

    Otis the Sweaty

    July 25, 2016 at EST am

    • Nate Silver is trying to scare them out of complacency now.

      IHTG

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  6. Slow and steady.

    maga

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  7. 2/10 of a percent is his convention bounce? While I want Trump to win, I am the one who is worried. Trump seems to have no inkling how to run a general election campaign. If he is as rich as he claims to be, he should invest a few hundred million in advertising. Has he spent a penny of his own on advertising at this point?

    I’m sure Clinton expects to be ahead 4 or 5 points this time next week after her convention. Here in Florida, her advertising is incessant.

    Bella Bella

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • Trump had a bigger bump than that. And since the end of the RNC, the Dems had the email scandal and there were more mass shootings.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • His real bump is more like between 6 and 10 points notwithstanding the distribution shenanigans of the media polls including the absurd one in Reuters (D44/R33/I11) which really skews the RCP average. And Hillary has spent almost as much money as Jeb! on negative ads, with about the same result.

      vdorta

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • Why blow money on advertising now when the Democrats own internal dramas are doing themselves harm. Plenty of time to spend the money in October. Best to husband the resources for when they will have maximum effect.

      Daniel

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  8. An effective summary of the core tenets of Trumpism: http://dailycaller.com/2016/07/25/nationalism-beyond-trump/

    IHTG

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  9. And I trust those of you who think Clinton IS in serious trouble have ponied up cash in the prediction markets…

    It’s plainly bad for Democrats when Syrian refugees shoot or bomb Europeans, or when Wikileaks dumps e-mails, especially when these things happen the weekday after the Republican’s convention, but Trump’s campaign still lacks organization and money, challenges compounded by a stacked Electoral College. Most Americans will not pay more than passing attention until the debates.

    Hope for Trump (if you want), but steel yourself for a Clinton presidency.

    Vince

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • “Most Americans will not pay more than passing attention until the debates.”

      The debates are really going to decide things, if you ask me. The great undecideds (mostly idiots) will be swayed by them. It goes without saying that the media will have nothing but gotcha questions for Trump and softballs for Hillary. He should insist on a different debate format, one NOT moderated by the media. Why not have each candidate provide a moderator? Why not dispense with ANY panel and just let the candidates go back and forth with each other? There are plenty of ways to do this other than having a bunch of vipers skewing the questions.

      The debate format is a trap for Republicans. Trump needs to shatter it like he’s shattered so much else.

      peterike

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

      • ” Why not have each candidate provide a moderator? Why not dispense with ANY panel and just let the candidates go back and forth with each other? ”

        That would be a real dream debate; an actual back and forth between the candidates. I think that sort of format would play to Trump’s advantages, but that’s also why it’s unlikely. I don’t think the Democrats and the media would ever go along with a format in which they were not in full control, like the traditional “debates” where the moderator would ask Trump to explain why he’s so racist and scares children.

        Mike Street Station

        July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • According to the clown at ESPN , Trump is 2/1 long shot almost. Clinton 1-2 odds on favorite. If I’m looking for value, Trump at those odds are fucking “Yuge”.

      K.l. Asher

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • but Trump’s campaign still lacks organization and money,

      The Trump campaign has improved greatly on metrics of fundraising, messaging, and organization since Ivanka fired Lewandowski and replaced him with Manafort .

      ;

      The Undiscovered Jew

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  10. This race is impossible to predict, but the Democrats are in chaos. Am I the only one here who takes this seriously?

    gothamette

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  11. They are definitely worried. Current events (ie terrorism, wikileaks) have lined up perfectly for Trump and I expect the Democrat Convention to be a real snooze. Nothing but whining, pandering and sob stories. As Lion had predicted, Trump is gaining momentum through social proof. I am seeing yard signs now in my neighborhood that weren’t there a few weeks ago. Trump and is whole family are selling an image of vitality and strength and the American people are buying it.

    B.T.D.T.

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  12. Much as I like these poll numbers, I’m worried about a RNC hack that wikileaks would dump the week before the election.

    Mike Street Station

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • I’d like to see it, actually. What would – could – it prove? That GOP-e was against Trump? That would only help Trump. The only type of wikileaks that would hurt Trump would be a personal scandal.

      Meanwhile, I’m more interested in the real story behind DSW being pushed. Ostensibly it’s because of the leaks and that’s true as far as it goes, but the visceral hatred shown towards her goes much deeper than policy differences and the fact that she’s an influence peddler.

      My own guess is that the Bernie bots hate her Zionism. They are stuck with Zionism for now, but they would love to go full Corbyn and become pro-Palestinian. They simply hate her Zionist guts and enjoyed humiliating her in public. It’s so obvious. I wonder how this is going to play out downstream.

      gothamette

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • Personally, I think that Putin sees a huge advantage in having Trump be president, rather than Hillary.

      According to some rumors, the ChiComs also prefer Trump over Hillary. Trump will press them hard for better trade deals for America, which they consider to be less of a threat than Hillary’s democracy promotion.

      Sure, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Russians and Chinese hacked the RNC, but the Russians have a strong interest in a Trump presidency, while the Chinese would likely use the information to maintain leverage over American officials, and create dossiers on whom they can bribe.

      Sid

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • “My own guess is that the Bernie bots hate her Zionism. They are stuck with Zionism for now, but they would love to go full Corbyn and become pro-Palestinian. They simply hate her Zionist guts and enjoyed humiliating her in public. It’s so obvious. I wonder how this is going to play out downstream.”

      I think there has been a slow motion move on the part of the left towards anti-semitism/anti-zionism/pro Palestinian for several years now, but because the preponderance of American Jews are on the left, it’s easily halted and interrupted. I think Bernie himself interrupted it this cycle by being Jewish and not having any interest in foreign affairs. His interest was almost all about domestic policy issues. He barely even mentioned Israel. So I really don’t think DWS’s zionism had anything to do with the hatred of her by the “Bernie bots.” She was pretty blatantly pro Hillary from the beginning and worked to support Hillary over Bernie from her allegedly neutral position. To me that’s an Occam’s razor explanation that makes more sense any anti-Zionism.

      Mike Street Station

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

    • The Dems and MSM don’t need a hack. They’ll just make something up to dominate the airwaves the week before the election. It won’t be true. But by the time it’s debunked the election will be over. Of course, Trump and his guys are smart enough to realize this. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t beat the bastards to the punch.

      destructure

      July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  13. Trump’s refusal to use big data like the dems to A/B test psychological triggering on undecided leaning repub voters will really really hurt him. At the same time, Trump’s understanding of human nature, and knowing that more and more police shootings, terrorism and feminist bravado are inevitable as they push the envelope against T starved white men, is a bankable guttural whipping boy.

    The polls seriously understate Trump in any case. His turnout will be passionate. And Bernie supporters are horrified at the DNC (and by implication Clinton) to dampen Hilarys. Their will be a much smaller youth vote.

    Also I think Ailes being Asanged is indicative of a power struggle among the cuckolds. Ailes liked Trump and the cucks threw him overboard despite his sterling service. He wasn’t a nice guy and he knows the rules, I suppose. When this is all over, they’re will be a great book about all this. So much crazy shit has happened!

    The Philosopher

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  14. IHTG

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  15. The Washington Post is not happy.

    “But blue collar whites are embracing not just Trump, but Trumpism, in enormous numbers. Now obviously these voters have many legitimate grievances: Elites really have let them down; trade deals really may have killed a lot of blue collar jobs in the industrial Midwest. Wages really have flattened. But all of those legitimate grievances may be leading many of these voters to embrace Trump’s full, apocalyptic vision of America, one framed around xenophobic and ethno-nationalist sentiments of the most wretched kind.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/07/25/this-is-the-single-most-depressing-finding-in-todays-polls-showing-trump-ahead/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

    Julian

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  16. In the last week the price of Trump has moved from 3.1 to 1 to 2.1 to 1 on betfair. Clinton has drifted accordingly. I believe that 2.1 to 1 is the shortest price that Trump has ever been.

    ISTM that the movement in this market is similar to the market when he was competing as a candidate for the Republican nomination. He started off at long odds and his price came in but only slowly as if most punters were thinking, despite his poll numbers and his enthusiastic support, that his victory was too much of a black swan event.

    martin

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm

  17. Five Thirty Eight now has Trump projected to win.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

    Julian

    July 25, 2016 at EST pm


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