Lion of the Blogosphere

RNC vs DNC, so far

At the RNC, the establishment refused to unite around Trump. Kasich, Romney, McCain, the Bushes, all absent from the convention. And of course Cruz’s historic non-endorsement speech. But the actual delegates attending, and by extension Republican voters throughout America, did unite behind Trump.

We see the opposite at the DNC. The DNC establishment is 100% onboard with Hillary (who was their first choice all along). Even Bernie is 100% Hillary’s lapdog. But many actual delegates who supported Bernie are definitely NOT behind Hillary, despite Bernie’s surrender speech, and outside of the convention there are massive protests by Bernie supporters.

At the RNC, Trump masterfully pivoted away from or downplayed traditional Republican policies that narrow the Republican tent. There was very little about Obamacare and tax cuts, and absolutely nothing about abortion (except from some very minor speakers kept far out of prime time and from Ted Cruz). The core speakers (except for Pence) focused on the exact topics I advised Trump to focus on: Immigration, law and order, Islamic terrorism, Obama/Clinton’s failed foreign policy, and Hillary’s bad behavior like lying about the emails as well as Benghazi. These are all the topics that bring new prole white voters into the party, without scaring them away with rightwing Christian stuff. Not only was abortion absent, but there was a huge pivot to the center on “LGBT” with Peter Thiel being given a major speaking slot. Only Pence was off message a little bit (indicating that Pence doesn’t quite understand the Trump strategy).

The DNC, on the other hand, is doing nothing to try to win back the prole white voters who are defecting to Trump. The stage at the DNC is a parade of women and minorities talking about SJW causes. The DNC is talking to the most leftwing elements of the party and voters who will already be voting Democratic anyway, rather than pivoting to the center. Perhaps this mistake was made because DNC planners live in such a liberal echo chamber (between talking among themselves, the liberals in the mainstream media, and their other elite friends outside of politics) that they are completely unaware of how regular Americans think. The complete lack of American flags the first day was a telling mistake. The DNC simply forgot how much the prole whites love the American flag because they think so little of them and about them.

The only big advantage the Democrats have is that they have a lot of real celebrities supporting them, not just Scott Baio. And it’s a pretty big advantage not to be understated. Don’t underestimate how much low-information and low-IQ voters can be swayed by celebrity endorsements like that. It’s a major problem for Republicans.

But the big advantage Trump had is his family. Hillary already used Bill, who although gave a competent speech, he certainly didn’t hit it out of the ballpark of expectations. Everyone knows Bill is/was a great speaker. But Bill today lacks the energy of his speeches when he was younger, and he surely bored a lot of people with his long detailed history of everything political Hillary ever did, which no one cares about. Everyone already knows that Hillary was involved in politics her whole life. I think that Bill unperformed expectations. On the other hand, Donald, Jr., Eric and Ivanka all hit home runs for their father. I don’t expect Chelsea’s speech to do as much.

I predict that Hillary will NOT get as big of a bounce as Trump did from his convention.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 27, 2016 at 7:37 am

Posted in Politics

29 Responses

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  1. Viche France was pretty united around Pétain. But four years later everyone claimed that they were actually in the Resistance and cheered the Constitution.

    Lion of the Turambar

    July 27, 2016 at 8:06 am

  2. Lion it will be interesting to see the ratings for convention and online views. Already i feel theres not as much buzz on social as there was for Trump, and all the drama now is over that Sanders has left the room.

    Historically, no party trying to hold on to the White House has been able to (since late 19th century) if more than a third of delegates support a candidate other than the nominee . Along with that the Democrats lost seats in 2014 midterm, and of course they don’t have an incumbent seeking reelection. These also have traditionally handicapped someone seeking the office.

    Finally it’s uncommon for a party to hold the white house for 3 cycles.

    If Clinton wins, the most revolutionary thing about her will be overcoming these factors.

    Paul Rise

    July 27, 2016 at 8:11 am

    • “Already i feel theres not as much buzz on social as there was for Trump”

      Funny, I get the opposite impression. BUT! 95% of what I do on Twitter is for work, so the tweet feed I’m exposed to is based around tech companies and social marketing people. I sneakily read Lion and Heartiste and a few others. Anyway, in my world, there were a lot of anti-Trump tweets and ZERO pro-Trump tweets during the RNC. Now, there are a lot of pro-DNC tweets and still a lot of anti-Trump tweets. The anti-Trump tweets are often harsh and angry.

      My take is that in the “respectable” corporate world, it is 100% a-ok to out yourself as a Progressive or Democrat, and it’s 0% ok to out yourself as a Republican or Trump supporter. Everybody just understands these rules. So I’m sure there are lots of folks in my feed that are Trump supporters, but NONE of them feel safely “empowered” to voice their views. Yet Progressives feel perfectly at home imposing their views on the rest of us even if their tweet streams are representing Big Corporation.

      peterike

      July 27, 2016 at 11:24 am

      • For the progressives, that will be their undoing. Lot’s of public data.

        map

        July 27, 2016 at 2:09 pm

  3. And notice how the clickbait Millennial press has become very sycophantic towards celebrities. The old-school tabloids were adversarial towards the famous, but most of what you see today is built around narratives like [CELEBRITY X] shuts down [RANDOM NOBODY “troll”/”hater”] with a PERFECT RESPONSE.

    Fiddlesticks

    July 27, 2016 at 8:44 am

  4. The DNC is boring, and full of degenerates. I don’t see how this attracts normal white people in OH, MI or IA. And what the hell happened to Bill Clinton?! Low energy.

    dsgntd_plyr

    July 27, 2016 at 8:50 am

  5. off topic, but on a black radio station in dc they just said trump will build a wall, then build a plantation.

    dsgntd_plyr

    July 27, 2016 at 8:58 am

    • Slander. Trump will build manors, not plantations.

      Garr

      July 27, 2016 at 9:32 am

      • Putting blacks on plantations would be unnecessary today, anyway. Better and less troublesome labor is available now for half the cost and headache.

        Camlost

        July 27, 2016 at 12:01 pm

    • its got to be tough being a black kid bombarded by black culture

      Lion of the Turambar

      July 27, 2016 at 9:46 am

  6. Don’t underestimate how much low-information and low-IQ voters can be swayed by celebrity endorsements like that. It’s a major problem for Republicans.

    Yes, this why getting Peter Thiel (even though I didn’t appreciate his gay gay gay comments) was such a coup for Trump. I was with friends this past weekend and they were shocked and disappointed that Thiel would speak at the RNC with all those awful racist, bigoted people. It really made them sit up and take notice. Very good for us. They are starting to realize that Trump could actually win this thing and rather than energizing them to get out the vote it is actually demoralizing them. Again, very good. I told them confidently Trump would win a 45 state landslide, for shock value, and the subject was soon changed. But they all loved Ivanka, everyone loves Ivanka.

    Andrew E.

    July 27, 2016 at 9:39 am

    • > I didn’t appreciate his gay gay gay comments

      Thiel is a chaste practicing Catholic. He is a gay catholic setting an important example for homosexual men. You can be gay with close gay friends, but you don’t have to wind up sick with diseases, or do corrupting things with boys.

      Warhol was another homosexual practicing Catholic. The rumors are he wound up sick with STDs a couple times, but I think he did try his best to be chaste and took his faith seriously.

      bobbybobbob

      July 29, 2016 at 12:58 am

  7. “Perhaps this mistake was made because DNC planners live in such a liberal echo chamber (between talking among themselves, the liberals in the mainstream media, and their other elite friends outside of politics) that they are completely unaware of how regular Americans think.”

    Pure hubris. Similarly, the MSM did not report at all on ALMOST HALF OF THE DELEGATES WALKING OUT, MASSIVE PROTESTS OUTSIDE.

    How stupid do they think people are? This is hardly Alex Jones territory. It’s very easy to confirm. They are only giving confirmation to what intelligent free-thinking people have suspected for years about the media.

    shiva1008

    July 27, 2016 at 9:54 am

  8. “The DNC, on the other hand, is doing nothing to try to win back the prole white voters who are defecting to Trump.”

    They’ve given up on them. Obama’s 2012 re-election specifically excluded any strategy to reach out to working class whites figuring, correctly,that they didn’t need them. Thomas B. Edsall wrote a great piece about it in the Times back during the 2012 election.

    Mike Street Station

    July 27, 2016 at 9:54 am

    • Working class whites didn’t vote for Obama in 2012… But they didn’t vote for Romney either. Obama did a great job in presenting Romney as a cold-blooded, offshoring plutocrat. Obama played up the auto bailout as much as he could too.

      Working class whites didn’t find much appealing in either candidate in 2012, and white voter participation dropped relative to 2008.

      Hillary will almost surely be able to whip up the Coalition of the Fringes again, but so far Trump has galvanized the white working class. 2016 has been a much different election than 2012.

      Sid

      July 28, 2016 at 6:06 am

      • It has turned out to be a totally different election, but Hillary is trying to rerun the Obama coalition

        Mike Street Station

        July 28, 2016 at 2:30 pm

      • Hillary will reassemble the Coalition of the Fringes – Hispanics, blacks, Muslims, childless women, and transsexuals. (Homosexuals will split for Trump and Hillary after Orlando.)

        What made the Coalition of the Fringes work, however, was that blue collar whites didn’t really turn out. Blue collar whites understood that Obama didn’t have their interests at heart, but he at least bailed out GM, which saved a lot of their jobs. Furthermore, if Obama didn’t care about them too much blue collar whites, he at least didn’t proactively feed off of their penury the way did at Bain.*

        That’s why things have been so different. Trump has appealed to the interests of blue collar whites this entire election, even at the expense of GOPe orthodoxy. Trump has an uphill battle against Hillary, but he has a path to victory and he’s been marching along that path.

        *I know that Romney’s record at Bain was far more complicated than that, but Obama was able to brand Romney as a Gordon Gekko villain. Romney was never able to expel that image.

        Sid

        July 28, 2016 at 4:05 pm

  9. Or maybe the demographics are such that the game is rigged. I often get the sense that the R party could nominate Beyoncé, and they’d still only get 45% of the votes.

    Jefferson

    July 27, 2016 at 10:55 am

  10. “Perhaps this mistake was made because DNC planners live in such a liberal echo chamber (between talking among themselves, the liberals in the mainstream media, and their other elite friends outside of politics) that they are completely unaware of how regular Americans think.”

    I would guess it is an attempt to keep Bernie’s followers happy. Bernie himself pushed hard to make the Democratic platform more progressive. I doubt how well it will work though. I don’t think the pissed off delegates and voters are mad because the platform is 80% progressive instead of 90%. They are pissed about corruption and rigged elections, which the Dems didn’t address at all except to force DWS to resign, but then immediately get a place of honor in HiIlary’s campaign. Which may be even worse than doing nothing because it looks like Hillary was rewarding a lackey (though it actually may have been to keep DWS from making trouble). All they can do is point at scary Trump.

    Aric

    July 27, 2016 at 11:57 am

  11. Don’t underestimate how much low-information and low-IQ voters can be swayed by celebrity endorsements like that. It’s a major problem for Republicans.

    Older whites are not swayed by such things. Too many of them (especially the working-class ones) stayed home in 2008 and 2012, allowing Barry to win. Trump is going to bring them to the polls, though.

    Camlost

    July 27, 2016 at 11:57 am

  12. In his speech, Bill said he bought a brick house in Arkansas for Hillary and told her, “now you have to marry me.” But, in previous years the story was always that they never owned a house until Bill became President. That’s also in Maraniss’ biography. So which is it?

    Operative

    July 27, 2016 at 11:58 am

    • It’s neither and both: everything out of a Clinton mouth is a lie.

      map

      July 27, 2016 at 2:17 pm

    • Clinton subsequently also mentioned he cut down his father’s cherry tree.

      Glengarry

      July 27, 2016 at 4:21 pm

  13. Lion, you’ve got good instincts. But a lot of the liberals on Facebook seem to think Hillary had a good night last night.

    Rotten

    July 27, 2016 at 2:14 pm

  14. Not sure how it compares to the RNC convention, but this video claims that there were hundreds of empty seats at the DNC during Hilliary’s acceptance.

    Half Canadian

    July 27, 2016 at 3:20 pm

  15. Trump has his own children, new celebrities themselves, to counteract the liberal ones. He should get them to every rally he holds from now on. I noticed that he called Eric to the podium today in Scranton.

    Vladimir Dorta

    July 27, 2016 at 4:34 pm

  16. why do we keep clinging to the fiction that Obamacare was/is popular? it’s only popular with moochers. surveys about repealing consistently exceed 50%.

    Brendan

    July 27, 2016 at 5:46 pm

  17. There actually was a strong wink and nod to pro-lifers when Trump praised Scalia and stated that Scalia is the kind of judge that he respects. Anybody with any clue on the abortion battles understands that the Supreme Court is the key to the whole matter. With Trump endorsing Scalia type judges he is implying that, while he is not personally invested in the abortion fight, he understands and respects the views of those who are and will let the chips fall when we have strong constitutionalist judges. And Trump did this so adroitly that the Democrats couldn’t attack him on it.

    Daniel

    July 27, 2016 at 8:50 pm


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