RNC vs DNC, so far
At the RNC, the establishment refused to unite around Trump. Kasich, Romney, McCain, the Bushes, all absent from the convention. And of course Cruz’s historic non-endorsement speech. But the actual delegates attending, and by extension Republican voters throughout America, did unite behind Trump.
We see the opposite at the DNC. The DNC establishment is 100% onboard with Hillary (who was their first choice all along). Even Bernie is 100% Hillary’s lapdog. But many actual delegates who supported Bernie are definitely NOT behind Hillary, despite Bernie’s surrender speech, and outside of the convention there are massive protests by Bernie supporters.
At the RNC, Trump masterfully pivoted away from or downplayed traditional Republican policies that narrow the Republican tent. There was very little about Obamacare and tax cuts, and absolutely nothing about abortion (except from some very minor speakers kept far out of prime time and from Ted Cruz). The core speakers (except for Pence) focused on the exact topics I advised Trump to focus on: Immigration, law and order, Islamic terrorism, Obama/Clinton’s failed foreign policy, and Hillary’s bad behavior like lying about the emails as well as Benghazi. These are all the topics that bring new prole white voters into the party, without scaring them away with rightwing Christian stuff. Not only was abortion absent, but there was a huge pivot to the center on “LGBT” with Peter Thiel being given a major speaking slot. Only Pence was off message a little bit (indicating that Pence doesn’t quite understand the Trump strategy).
The DNC, on the other hand, is doing nothing to try to win back the prole white voters who are defecting to Trump. The stage at the DNC is a parade of women and minorities talking about SJW causes. The DNC is talking to the most leftwing elements of the party and voters who will already be voting Democratic anyway, rather than pivoting to the center. Perhaps this mistake was made because DNC planners live in such a liberal echo chamber (between talking among themselves, the liberals in the mainstream media, and their other elite friends outside of politics) that they are completely unaware of how regular Americans think. The complete lack of American flags the first day was a telling mistake. The DNC simply forgot how much the prole whites love the American flag because they think so little of them and about them.
The only big advantage the Democrats have is that they have a lot of real celebrities supporting them, not just Scott Baio. And it’s a pretty big advantage not to be understated. Don’t underestimate how much low-information and low-IQ voters can be swayed by celebrity endorsements like that. It’s a major problem for Republicans.
But the big advantage Trump had is his family. Hillary already used Bill, who although gave a competent speech, he certainly didn’t hit it out of the ballpark of expectations. Everyone knows Bill is/was a great speaker. But Bill today lacks the energy of his speeches when he was younger, and he surely bored a lot of people with his long detailed history of everything political Hillary ever did, which no one cares about. Everyone already knows that Hillary was involved in politics her whole life. I think that Bill unperformed expectations. On the other hand, Donald, Jr., Eric and Ivanka all hit home runs for their father. I don’t expect Chelsea’s speech to do as much.
I predict that Hillary will NOT get as big of a bounce as Trump did from his convention.