Lion of the Blogosphere

Scott Adams agrees with me, Trump needs an October surprise

A few days ago, I wrote:

Trump’s only hope right now is:

1. Another ISIS attack big enough to to scare people into voting for him.

2. Hillary’s health problems manifest too obviously for the media elites to keep covering up.

3. Devastating Wikileaks release.

In his most recent blog post, Scott Adams agrees with me. He says that Trump won’t win unless one of the following things happens:

1. Voters discover that Clinton has been hiding a major health issue.

2. Wikileaks releases something damaging.

3. Trump over-performs at the first debate, showing the world that he is willing and able to master the issues.

4. Trump makes the case that the Clinton Foundation is really about selling influence to foreign concerns.

5. Trump gives a speech or interview that is so effective in its empathy that he no longer appears to be crazy and racist.

6. A new surprise revelation about Clinton that no one sees coming.

7. Terror attacks push everything else out of the headlines in the final months.

8. Someone assassinates Clinton because of Trump’s 2nd Amendment joke.

#8 is in bad taste, and even if it happens, if Trump gets blamed for it (as the media will most surely do), then most likely Kaine will win.

#3 and #5 won’t happen, because no matter how well Trump performs at a debate or giving a speech, the media will spin it as Trump is racist evil dark fascist unhinged Hitler 2.0. As a commenter noted a few days ago, Trump is really running against the media and not Hillary.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 12, 2016 at 2:23 pm

Posted in Politics

81 Responses

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  1. “Trump needs an October surprise”

    Yeah or he could drop out in September and have the same effect. Reuters had a inconclusive poll about this- 19% of Republicans want him to drop out. And 38% want the top of ticket swapped.

    Regarding #1 and #4 my in-laws said about Hillary’s lying “all politicians lie”. So HRC being proven to lie about her email server is just confirmation of the adage that polititians lie. So depending on how widly felt that is 1 and 4 wont move the needle much

    Lion of the Turambar

    August 12, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    • Regarding #1 and #4 my in-laws said about Hillary’s lying “all politicians lie”.

      But not all politicians will allow ISIS immigrants to mutilate your in-laws like Hillary, acting in the pro-ISIS tradition of Obama, will.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      August 12, 2016 at 5:34 pm

      • sorry but you are still counting on #7 since no one thinks they are going to be blowed up by ISIS in the US.

        And I am not say I think lying is equivalent- I am pointing out that at least some people have baked in the moral equivalence of all politicians lying and therefor HRC cant be hurt by evidence of her doing what they supposed she was doing. Which means #1 and #4 dont help much. At least unless you had a contrast candidate who was perceived as more moral.

        Lion of the Turambar

        August 12, 2016 at 6:28 pm

      • sorry but you are still counting on #7 since no one thinks they are going to be blowed up by ISIS in the US.

        Neither did the attendees of the Bataclan nightlcub one night before they were skinned alive by ISIS.

        And I am not say I think lying is equivalent- I am pointing out that at least some people have baked in the moral equivalence of all politicians lying and therefor HRC cant be hurt by evidence of her doing what they supposed she was doing.

        If she is so invulnerable why doesn’t the media report on her failures as often as Trump’s?

        Now if only he would bring those failures to light in an aggressive ad campaign…

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 12, 2016 at 8:22 pm

      • Right, and the children squashed into the ground in Nice (why do we never hear of them?) and the priest beheaded, and and and and….

        I cannot fucking believe the narcoleptic response to Islamic terror in the west. It’s as if nothing is happening….move along…..why?

        gothamette

        August 12, 2016 at 10:54 pm

      • People just don’t care anymore whether they get blown up by ISIS. Hope and change, y’all!

        Also, don’t forget Orlando and San Mateo, just counting recent ISIS work on US soil. Or the San Jose thing, where mexican cops stood and looked on while mexicans beat up Trump supporters, or the many other ginned-up semi-riots up until the Republican convention.

        And I’m still amazed that Clinton hasn’t been taken to task for excusing and endorsing a gang of cop killers.

        Glengarry

        August 13, 2016 at 5:28 am

      • “Neither did the attendees of the Bataclan nightlcub one night before they were skinned alive by ISIS.”

        Thats net zero votes. Either people dont believe the threat or they are dead.

        Lion of the Turambar

        August 13, 2016 at 8:41 am

      • Regarding #1 and #4 my in-laws said about Hillary’s lying “all politicians lie”

        And Trump lies like crazy and defends those lies to end for absolutely no reason. The only really good Trump put down was low energy all the other ones apply to him as well as the person he’s criticizing.

        Magnavox

        August 13, 2016 at 11:10 am

      • I cannot fucking believe the narcoleptic response to Islamic terror in the west. It’s as if nothing is happening….move along…..why?

        But Trump makes gaffes!

        People just don’t care anymore whether they get blown up by ISIS.

        Turambar, who might be accused of being our resident cuckservative, certainly doesn’t.

        Thats net zero votes.

        It has netted votes. If he were the Democrat nominee ISIS would be no burden for Sanders, whom polls consistently showed outperformed Hillary in the general election.

        Either people dont believe the threat or they are dead.

        Do I conclude from this blase attitude that you are not voting for Trump because you don’t believe in the existence of a threat from ISIS? Or you know ISIS is a threat but simply don’t care, because, whatever.

        And Trump lies like crazy and defends those lies to end for absolutely no reason.

        Assuming this is true, why do you think Hillary is better?

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 13, 2016 at 7:48 pm

  2. Nobody’s paying attention to politics until the Olympics are over. By then, the status quo will go back to the Clinton +4 that the race has always been at.

    Clinton’s counting on being able to hide & the media will probably let her. At some point, maybe the debates, Clinton will have to explain what she’s actually for on the issues, and then she’s in trouble.

    Trump needs to go back to the basics of why people like him: because when he got financially squeezed for telling the truth, he didn’t back down.

    I dont think Trump has enough $$ to make a commercials campaign work, but Clinton’s team is pretty inept and people might just recoil from her commercials.

    It will all come down to turnout. Can Trump get his people to turnout? Paul Nehlan couldn’t and Paul Ryan definitely could.

    Rotten

    August 12, 2016 at 2:41 pm

    • The margin of Paul Ryan’s primary win was dumbfounding, but upper midwesterners are dumb. As a whole, they’re smart-dumb like NPR listeners.

      Nevertheless, the Ryan-Nehlen race outcome was very discouraging.

      SQ

      August 12, 2016 at 6:18 pm

      • Paul Ryan is speaker of the house, Paul Nehlen was an underfunded unknown political novice. can’t read too much into that. Give Ryan a real opponent and he might have lost.

        JimBonobo

        August 12, 2016 at 7:24 pm

      • Is there any other potential new member of congress besides Nehlen who could be considered a Trumpist?

        Magnavox

        August 12, 2016 at 7:46 pm

      • If Ryan loses to the Democrat that would be an improvement.

        gothamette

        August 12, 2016 at 10:55 pm

    • He only ever told the truth about Hispanics in the broadest sense of saying something negative about them. He has yet to anything smart about race.

      Magnavox

      August 12, 2016 at 8:05 pm

      • Which of his competitors have said anything smarter?

        Glengarry

        August 13, 2016 at 5:07 am

  3. (1) Could happen, but would require Trump to buy the air time to expose here health relentlessly and with killer visuals. The footage is all there to do this today.

    (2) With the media this all-in for Hillary, why would more Wikileaks hurt her? She’s already been shown to rig elections, sell influence, endanger national security, lie routinely, etc, and none of it hurts her. What could possibly change that? We could find proof that LBJ hired her to shoot JFK and it wouldn’t matter. She could have parachuted out after piloting the plane that hit the first tower and it wouldn’t matter.

    (3) Expectations for Trump are monumental in the first debate. He has to have a knockout just to meet expectations, so if anything the debates are likely to hurt him.

    (4) No, see (2)

    (5) The media won’t cover a killer Trump speech.

    (6) No, see (5), (4), (2)

    (7) Terror attacks probably help Trump but could also hurt him, past reaction in polls has been inconsistent. Better not count on this.

    (8) …

    CONCLUSION: Trump needs to overwhelm the airwaves with his own media coverage in the form of extremely persuasive ads depicting Hillary’s questionable health and her most heinous crimes against America. He needs to start this yesterday so it has time to sink into everyone’s minds.

    dingodonkey

    August 12, 2016 at 2:54 pm

    • “(2) With the media this all-in for Hillary, why would more Wikileaks hurt her? She’s already been shown to rig elections, sell influence, endanger national security, lie routinely, etc, and none of it hurts her. What could possibly change that? We could find proof that LBJ hired her to shoot JFK and it wouldn’t matter. She could have parachuted out after piloting the plane that hit the first tower and it wouldn’t matter.”

      Yeah I can’t possibly see what good any Wikileaks revelations would do. The media wants her to win so I can’t see a situation in which they cover her, (and Trump) honestly. Trump’s best shot might be a good debate performance, but again, it’s hard to imagine the media would allow it. Someone from one of the news networks is going to be the debate moderator, and they are 100 times more motivated to “Candy Crowley” Trump than they were Romney.

      Mike Street Station

      August 12, 2016 at 6:03 pm

    • ***3) Expectations for Trump are monumental in the first debate. He has to have a knockout just to meet expectations, so if anything the debates are likely to hurt him.***

      My impression is that expectations for Trump in the first debate are rock bottom – the media obsessively zeroes in on soundbites out of context to portray Trump in the worst way. I think that people watching the debates will be impressed if he puts in a moderately solid performance.

      Julian

      August 13, 2016 at 6:46 am

  4. So, in other words, Trump’s given himself lots of outs (ie. paths to victory), like a great poker player.

    Andrew E.

    August 12, 2016 at 3:00 pm

    • lol – no he hasnt. He needs force majeure events that he has no way of influencing.

      #5 is inoperable since everyone already made up their mind he is crazy he reenforces it daily between now and the hypothetical speech. And HS is right that people will only learn of the speech through the filter of media reporting.

      #3 is sort of in his control except that to envision Trump “winning” the debate he would have to be so “Trumpy” that it would make people hate him even more. People will vote in this election because they hate Trump and he will just feed that. You can imagine him trying to be a rational debater in command of facts but the reality is that given his huge knowledge gap and aggressive press he wont be able to pull that off.

      I was sort of looking forward to not having to pay attention to an election for once. But seeing as Trump is already fondly pondering (in August!) his eventual “very very nice long vacation” after losing I think there is a decent chance he pulls a Perot.

      Lion of the Turambar

      August 12, 2016 at 4:11 pm

    • There is this weird contingent of people that want to explain everything in terms of how Trump is actually a super genius political operator. The fact is that noone is as good at politics as these people claim Trump is and Trump isn’t even that good at politics compared to other politicians.

      Magnavox

      August 12, 2016 at 7:22 pm

  5. Only hope? One or more of those are virtual certainties. Perhaps he/you should have better phrased it as “Clinton’s only hope right now is that none of the following events occur….”

    gda

    August 12, 2016 at 3:12 pm

  6. Lion, wouldn’t you say that the Trump candidacy has been deceptive, in the sense that many of the people who voted for him in the primaries must have reasoned that “OF COURSE a New York City billionaire knows how to talk to college-educated middle class people!”. But it turns out, not really. He’s really an unusual individual.

    IHTG

    August 12, 2016 at 3:14 pm

  7. #8 won’t happen, but I would not be surprised to see an attempt on Trump’s life. The media has been so irresponsible in its coverage that there might be someone out there unhinged enough to believe that Trump is the second coming of Hitler and must be taken out.

    And if that does happen, what will the reaction be? Undoubtedly many Democrats will be high-fiving and spiking the football. And a large number of Republican establishment types (George Will comes to mind) will be tsk-tsking and suggesting that “he had it coming.”

    Sgt. Joe Friday

    August 12, 2016 at 3:23 pm

    • There have been two inept attempts already. The fat student actor who tried to storm the stage, and the pencilneck briton who tried to steal a cop’s gun at a rally to kill Trump.

      Glengarry

      August 12, 2016 at 4:31 pm

      • Yea, and they’ve already gone down the memory hole. If similar attacks had been attempted on Clinton EVERYONE would remember, not only weeks but many months out. Possibly years.

        Dain

        August 12, 2016 at 6:41 pm

    • There have already been two potential attacks on Trump. Down the memory hole already, because Trump used sarcasm!

      Panther of the Blogocube

      August 12, 2016 at 6:21 pm

  8. I’ll say it again: what is best for us is a close Trump loss. After 4 years of Hillary, we’ll be able to run my dead grandmother and win by 5 points. Only thanks to Trump we will be running on a National Populist platform instead instead of a Cuck platform of abortions and tax cuts.

    Think about it, do we really want Trump owning the upcoming recession? Let Hillary take it to go along with the increasing black crime and Islamic terrorism that her Presidency will usher in.

    Otis the Sweaty

    August 12, 2016 at 3:40 pm

    • Yes, I do want Trump to win. A Hillary (or Republican neocon/Lion of the Turambar) victory means nuclear war with Russia within 4 years.

      Andrew E.

      August 12, 2016 at 7:03 pm

    • Clinton will just be Obama redux and he wont two terms and you’re nuts if you think you can time recessions. Although this is still one of your less nutty comments.

      Magnavox

      August 12, 2016 at 7:43 pm

    • So now you’re saying its best if Trump LOSES? I thought this was our last chance to save the U.S. from being overrun by illegals and that 4 years of Hillary appointed SCOTUS judges would permanently destroy America. What changed your mind? I don’t remember you being worried about a recession before. I agree that a Trump loss is best. And I would like a more populist Republican party. I just think Trump is the wrong person to lead it for a variety of reasons. But it seems to me that your demonic hostility to the more traditional conservatives of the Cruz or Christian Right variety was misplaced.

      Maryk

      August 12, 2016 at 11:02 pm

      • First of all, “demonic”? I’m not demonic. I like Christianity a lot (in fact, one of my cousins is in seminary studying to become a priest), just not as much as I like Islam. (Non-Arab) Christians are good people for the most part.

        Second of all, how was it misplaced? They have ruined America.

        I thought this was our last chance to save the U.S. from being overrun by illegals and that 4 years of Hillary appointed SCOTUS judges would permanently destroy America.

        That’s what everybody else has been saying but I have never bought into that. I have been consistent for months that if Hillary wins it might be best for us as she will finish her Presidency with approval in the mid-30s, if not lower due to her unlikability, incompetence and the recession that is coming up.

        And in spite of what Magnavox said above, I can in fact time recessions. All of the major economic indicators point to a recession beginning by the end of next year. It won’t be even close to as bad as the 2007 one, but it will hurt. Let Hil and the Dems own it.

        Otis the Sweaty

        August 13, 2016 at 2:28 am

      • That may not be Otis’s position but it is mine. 4 years of demographic replacement makes a right leaning coalition win impossible. It’s imbalanced right now based on the generic Republican/Democrat electoral votes.

        But even if demography wasn’t destiny, there is no populist replacement for Trump because that would require a billionaire, someone who could self fund, because none of the usual donors are financing a restrictive immigration/trade agendas.

        Mike Street Station

        August 13, 2016 at 9:56 am

      • And in spite of what Magnavox said above, I can in fact time recessions.

        So you could make billions investing but choose to rant about politics all day on the internet instead?

        Magnavox

        August 13, 2016 at 11:00 am

  9. Tim Kaine on fair housing, discrimination and the need to “acknowledge your privilege”:

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/12/opinions/affordable-housing-election-clinton-kaine/index.html

    Camlost

    August 12, 2016 at 3:53 pm

  10. Trump seems like he has more medical issues than Hiliary these days.

    Jeez he’s going nuts.

    Kaz

    August 12, 2016 at 4:27 pm

    • (Hillary vigorously nods and nods and nods.)

      Glengarry

      August 13, 2016 at 5:30 am

  11. Speaking of Wikileaks, I’m wondering if Assange is trying to cut a deal. He has recently threatened to release more stuff on Hillary, and I have seen that the Swedes now may be setting up to interview him at the Ecuadorean embassy in London. It’s straightforward to make a discreet deal and write off the whole thing in exchange for the docs at that point. Assange and Hillary both walk, everybody’s happy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/swedish-authorities-could-relent-and-interview-julian-assange-at/

    Glengarry

    August 12, 2016 at 4:36 pm

  12. Let’s see if Twitter shadowbans Trump if he gets too strong.

    Glengarry

    August 12, 2016 at 4:38 pm

  13. All Trump has to ask at the end of each debate is the classic rhetorical question asked by Reagan along the lines of “Are you better of now than you were eight years ago?”.

    It would also help if he slammed her on the foreign payoffs, disenfranchising the coal miners, 2nd Amendment, and taxes.

    sth_txs

    August 12, 2016 at 4:42 pm

    • If Trump could memorize a few rhetorical questions to ask Hillary it would help immensely. For example, at the foreign policy debate:

      “Hillary, you voted for the war in Iraq, which was a disaster, and then led the charge to intervene militarily in Libya, which was another disaster. Doesn’t that demonstrate your poor judgement and inability to learn from mistakes?”

      David Pinsen

      August 13, 2016 at 6:47 pm

  14. Scott Adams hedges constantly.

    Trump could start advertising. He hasn’t done so yet.

    Also, if it’s true that Preet Bhahara is investigating the Clinton Foundation, that could sting Hillary.

    The biggest disconnect now though is Hillary with these big leads in the polls and scarcely-attended rallies, while Trump has 10,000 show up wherever he goes.

    David Pinsen

    August 12, 2016 at 4:50 pm

    • I really don’t understand the rally attendance argument. Surely you don’t think that the ratio of average attendance figure has to equal the ratio of votes. Polls are what are actually good at predicting votes. And I don’t mean talking up the few polls where Trump is only a few points behind and ignoring all the others where he gets schlonged

      Magnavox

      August 12, 2016 at 11:40 pm

      • Think back to the primaries. Wouldn’t you have thought it odd if Trump had lost despite routinely having rallies that dwarfed his opponents’? I would have. I suppose he could lose in November despite turning out 50x as many attendees to his rallies as Hillary, but it would be weird.

        David Pinsen

        August 13, 2016 at 1:44 am

      • No one loves Hillary. Some people love Trump, but they aren’t numerous enough to win elections in states like New York.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 13, 2016 at 9:26 am

  15. He’s trying to lose. In a week or two, Lion will write a post about this.

    A Reader

    August 12, 2016 at 4:51 pm

    • If Trump wanted to lose, why is he campaigning 6 days a week?

      David Pinsen

      August 12, 2016 at 6:29 pm

      • Same reason Hitler kept fighting after 1944

        A Reader

        August 12, 2016 at 8:31 pm

      • “Same reason Hitler kept fighting after 1944”

        Hitler wasn’t trying to lose in 1944. He was just deluded and surrounded by lackeys who didn’t challenge his delusions.

        And Trump works a lot harder than Hitler, who got up at 10am most days.

        David Pinsen

        August 13, 2016 at 1:41 am

      • He isnt really campaigning- he is having people interview him like he is important and listening to applause from crowds. Thats whats narcissists like.

        Lion of the Turambar

        August 13, 2016 at 8:40 am

  16. so adams has changed his mind.

    has he given any account of this?

    on Real Time Adams said that he expected trump would not only win but win in a landslide.

    and the story is NOT ideology or liberals vs conservatives.

    the story is white men vs everyone else.

    Trumpocalypse Now

    August 12, 2016 at 5:24 pm

  17. #1. How many innocent people have to die to make this man President?

    Brendan

    August 12, 2016 at 5:39 pm

    • Only Hillary knows.

      Glengarry

      August 13, 2016 at 5:33 am

  18. Scott Adams agrees with me, Trump needs an October surprise

    I don’t agree.

    The media’s treatment of Bush in 2000 and 2004 was only moderately fairer to the Republicans. The media is always in the tank for the Democrats, yet the Democrats are always vulnerable to a loss.

    To win Trump needs only to go on the air with attack ads to complement his public attacks against her. Right now he’s being outspent by the Libertarians and Greens, but not for much longer. Trump recently said they’ve been preparing ads, and he likes what samples he’s seen of them. But he’s holding back, presumably by early September, which is the traditional time for that battle.

    I would move the timeline up: if attack ads had started on August 1st he would now be tied with Hillary.

    But her lead has been slowly dissipating since the convention while Trump has won the recent round of exchanges over her being ‘brainwashed’ and by calling Obama and Hillary the founders of ISIS.

    The ad campaign favors Trump when he starts it because he has more devastating material against her than she has against him and she’s probably close to hitting diminishing returns with how much her extra spending can improve her numbers.

    #3 and #5 won’t happen, because no matter how well Trump performs at a debate or giving a speech,

    #3 is possible because of Hillary’s deteriorating health. She may well collapse on stage from a seizure.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    August 12, 2016 at 5:46 pm

    • Magnavox

      August 12, 2016 at 7:39 pm

      • Nate Silver (538) previously admitted trying to talk down Trump, by the way. So much for awesome genius statistics you can believe in.

        Glengarry

        August 13, 2016 at 5:37 am

    • Her lead has been very very very slowly dissipating

      True.

      Which is why his improvement is not sufficient to take her down, and why he needs he needs attack ads to do it.

      And what are you doing quoting anything from 538? They were wrong throughout the primaries and never say anything correct that can’t be concluded from the RCP average.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      August 12, 2016 at 10:12 pm

      • They’re very good at analyzing polls in presidential elections, they have better looking graphs than RCP, and I believe they have a better track record in using polls to predict elections. The mistakes that Silver made in the primaries were based on different methodologies than what I linked to.

        Trump may be doing some kind of rope-a-dope style strategy where he’s waiting until very late to unleash a blitz of negative campaign ads. If there does end up being a late game ad blitz its probably even more likely that there was just a bunch of internal bickering and chaos and eventually the pro ad campaign faction won out. I’ve never seen much evidence of Trump using any kind of grand strategy.

        Magnavox

        August 13, 2016 at 12:22 am

      • 538 is bad in my opinion. They bake in all sorts of historicals with excessive weighting. The vaunted accuracy rate is based on their last adjustment which occurs on election day- how much ‘predicting’ is that? Accuracy should be measured against a prediction of future events; at least 3 weeks out.

        Look back at their odds of the Senate flipping from 2014. They were totally caught out on that.

        Lion of the Turambar

        August 13, 2016 at 12:37 pm

      • They’re very good at analyzing polls in presidential elections, they have better looking graphs than RCP, and I believe they have a better track record in using polls to predict elections.

        The ascetic quality of their graphs is meaningless in weighing their accuracy. As Turambar said, they missed 2014 by a wide mark, and they didn’t exactly crown themselves with glory during the primary.

        In 2012 the RCP average predicted 49 out of 50 states. 538 got all 50 correct, but that may have just been a lucky guess since there was only a state difference between them and RCP.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 13, 2016 at 7:52 pm

      • Trump may be doing some kind of rope-a-dope style strategy where he’s waiting until very late to unleash a blitz of negative campaign ads. If there does end up being a late game ad blitz its probably even more likely that there was just a bunch of internal bickering and chaos and eventually the pro ad campaign faction won out.

        The reason for a delay doesn’t affect the impact of an ad blitz, which I have very good reason to believe will decisively change the course of the campaign by keeping her on the defensive.

        Of course if he does not run ads, he is guaranteed to lose.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 13, 2016 at 7:55 pm

  19. So what about all of his master persuader bullshit? His predicted Trump landslide? Oh, apparently now Clinton has a super duper grand imperial lord master persuader:

    “It seems that these highly-skilled influencers advised Clinton to steer clear of facts and reason and scare the hell out of voters by painting Trump as a thin-skinned, unstable racist. That approach is working.”

    Wow! Paint him as a thin-skinned, unstable racist. I never saw that coming Clearly some triple strength persuader mojo at work here. Was Scott Adams watching the fucking Republican primary?!

    Mercy Vetsel

    August 12, 2016 at 5:57 pm

    • The funny thing is that he says exactly what you’re saying, specifically that she has hired “weapons-grade Master Persuaders.” So I guess their is hope for Trump if he can find an imperial lord master persuader because that sounds like it outranks a weapons grade master persuader.

      Magnavox

      August 12, 2016 at 8:01 pm

  20. Trump will be a Brexit style upset win.

    map

    August 12, 2016 at 6:12 pm

    • his loss will mean as much as his win.

      that’s for sure.

      those who had any hope that the US could avoid “latin-america-niz-ation”…

      they will move…if they can.

      after 1994 and the end of apartheid…

      1. 20% of white south africans have emigrated.

      2. 25% wish they could emigrate, but can’t.

      3. the white poverty rate has tripled.

      4. the blacks, who were never indigenous…unlike the native americans…the bantu came AFTER the dutch, …

      they are NOT any better off.

      those few blacks who’ve made bank have done so via graft and affirmative action.

      Trumpocalypse Now

      August 12, 2016 at 6:45 pm

    • i mean i’d love to throw a nine-dart finish to lara logan…

      why did she leave ZA?

      affirmative action!

      SHE has said so herself!

      or as a taleb has said:

      the ruling class in the US and europe simply isn’t that bright.

      it’s the triumph of the sheeple, and they must be sheared…

      by any means possible.

      Trumpocalypse Now

      August 12, 2016 at 6:55 pm

  21. Even if Hillary dies the media will keep her campaign going a la Weekend at Bernies, El Cid and Paul McCartney/Billie Shears. For all we know the woman we see in TV is a stand in.

    Curle

    August 12, 2016 at 7:11 pm

  22. I think there will likely be two October Surprises, provided by Wikileaks/Russia:

    1. A health report which shows that Hillary has Parkinson’s or another neurological condition which shows she’s not fit to be in charge of anything.

    2. The 30,000 deleted emails will come out, and they will demonstrate that Hillary agreed to fund/arm ISIS while she was Secretary of State in 2012.

    Sid

    August 12, 2016 at 8:03 pm

  23. People like the white woman at :52 are a big problem. Women like this are stupid.She’s all about inclusiveness. I guess she wants illegals and Syrian refugees to be included so they can rape here daughter.

    ttgy

    August 12, 2016 at 8:33 pm

    • And conservatives think that Clinton will be indicted or will start having seizures during the debates or any number of other stupid things.

      Magnavox

      August 12, 2016 at 10:09 pm

      • (Hillary nods vigorously.)

        Glengarry

        August 13, 2016 at 5:38 am

  24. Holy crap, the Dems are getting brutalized by hackers.

    IHTG

    August 12, 2016 at 8:55 pm

    • Maybe they were a little too inclusive when making their IT hires. Perhaps they put someone HR worthy in a key position.

      Remember, Hillary’s the dolt who last time around put women in charge of her campaign, at least until it was too late. I’ll give her credit for learning from her mistakes.

      Curle

      August 12, 2016 at 9:41 pm

  25. I think the wind is at Trump’s back. Wait and see what the polls say in early October. They are garbage until then.

    Paul Rise

    August 12, 2016 at 10:50 pm

  26. What is that emotional appeal that Trump could make, the one that would take away all those accusations of racism and bigotry? I believe it to be the argument for a legal immigration timeout and a long period of assimilation. We have a lot of societal strife. We are a divided nation. We need time to heal, yaddy yaddy yadda. Trump has too much gravitas to suck up his pride and speak so meekly. It wouldn’t be a masculine argument. It’s an appeal for mercy. He’s not going to make it. And he is probably going to lose.

    Dave

    August 13, 2016 at 12:07 am

    • Hasn’t he already made that emotional appeal, by having the black father of a boy killed by an illegal alien on stage? Yet the media still calls him racist. It’s Orwellian.

      David Pinsen

      August 13, 2016 at 6:42 pm

      • No. People hear “illegal immigration” and they think Mexican. They view it as singling groups out. Advocating for all future immigration, legal and illegal, polls much better than building a wall. There was a poll on Breitbart just the other day. Six to one could support a reduction in all immigration to prevent against economic displacement. They didn’t even mention demographic displacement. Advocating only against amnesty garnered around half the country’s support.

        Dave

        August 13, 2016 at 11:16 pm

  27. What value are any of these polls when the media has created a climate that is dangerous for people to admit they are Trump supporters?

    “Hi, I’m looking for Barry Johnson, residing at 324 Evergreen Terrace, Jersey City, NJ. Are you Mr. Johnson? You are? Please tell me, a live operator, who do you support for president so we can add your name to a permanent database.”

    Look at the wide swings in results from the RCP average: from 1 to 15 points behind. How do you get such a wide range when sampling and other statistical techniques are largely standardized?

    map

    August 13, 2016 at 12:53 am

  28. The current polls are useless for 3 reasons:
    1. Presidential polls are usually not very reliable until October.
    2. A lot of the polls are wildly oversampling democrats. I just looked at a Reuters pool that had 50% dems and only 12% independents. that’s ridiculous. should be like 35-40% dems/25-30% independents.
    3. the media has created such a hostile climate that admitting you support trump is only slightly better than admitting you are a child molester. this means that polls, especially live polls, will underestimate trump’s true support. some evidence for this comes from the poll numbers themselves. The Reuters/Ipsos poll has these results for likely voters:

    clinton 42%
    trump 36%
    other 10%
    not voting 4%
    don’t know/refuse to answer 8%

    how many of the “other” and “refuse to answer” are Trump voters? i suspect a lot are.

    I believe that correcting for problems 2 and 3 and Trump is ahead by 4-5%. but the only poll that really counts is in November.

    link to Reuters poll:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_Core_Political_8.10_.16_.pdf

    JimBonobo

    August 13, 2016 at 3:22 am

  29. Wikileaks certainly seems to be a continuing nuisance for Clinton. Also, the Clinton Foundation is being investigated. As others have noted, Trump needs to start getting his own attack ads going. The news that he has hired the Brexit data team is a good move.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/08/stunning_revelation_wikileaks_hack_shows_that_soros_called_the_shots_on_us_policy_toward_albania.html

    http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/11/exclusive-joint-fbi-us-attorney-probe-of-clinton-foundation-is-underway/?utm_campaign=atdailycaller&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

    Julian

    August 13, 2016 at 6:54 am


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