Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump in the lead again

Will #nevertrumpers please shut up now? And note that the LA Time poll, being an internet poll, is more accurate than phone polls where respondents lie because they are embarrassed to tell a live human they are going to vote for a racist.

Also, I agree with Ted’s comment from two days ago:

Trump himself hasn’t “blown” anything.

The forces which were always gathering to defeat him, the globalists AND the media they control, simply waited for the conventions to launch the media-coordinated attack.

The moment “dark” was on EVERY single local ABC, NBC, CBS affiliate, along with CNN and Fox to boot, you saw the global puppetmasters and the pollsters they hired go to work. It’s been a 24/7 onslaught ever since and if the Gold Star idiot dad had never existed at all, they’d have made him up anyway.

And as I previously pointed out, Trump’s supposedly “dark” speech borrowed heavily from Bill Clinton’s speech in 1992.

* * *

Andrew E. writes:

Trump didn’t let Manafort go because he felt Manafort was trying to turn him to GOPe and Manafort didn’t leave to jump ship from a dying campaign. Trump was never down 15 points.

Trump let Manafort go because he felt Manafort left him unprepared for the hellfire the media reigned down on him after the DNC and then didn’t help him make the necessary adjustments to get control over the narrative again. Manafort’s job was to secure the delegates, fend off the GOPe/nevertrump delegate mutiny and have a successful RNC. Manafort’s usefulness had come and gone. So Trump brought in someone, Bannon, who knows the new media, knows populism/nationalism and the globalist threat.

Indeed, Trump’s real enemy is not Hillary Clinton, but the mainstream media. And who better direct a campaign against the media: GOPe hack or an actual media guy like Bannon?

* * *

The Undiscovered Jew writes:

The new, improved, Trump messaging is the result of Kellyanne Conway’s influence. I’m not sure why she was able to get Trump to focus his approach while Manafort failed. But the important thing is it seems to be working.

Manafort is a GOPe guy that Trump needed for purposes of defending against a delegate floor fight and to bring the GOPe onboard for the convention, but they probably never bonded in any way.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 21, 2016 at 10:34 am

Posted in Politics

73 Responses

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  1. You are grasping at straws

    ScarletNumber

    August 21, 2016 at 10:38 am

    • (Hillary nods and nods and nods vigorously.)

      Glengarry

      August 21, 2016 at 10:56 am

    • The capacity of Trumpers to delude themselves is staggering. 99 out of 100 signs point to a Trump loss but they frantically search until they find the datum that can be skewed as positive.

      What matter is the state polls not an LA Times national and in the RCP average Clinton is ahead in all the battle ground states. How that is spun as a good thing is baffling.

      On the linked LA Times page we find out that Trump has double his spending, but much of that increased spending has gone to fund raising off his marks//supporters. And high salaries for staffers. But actual ground operation? Not much

      “Yet the campaign’s payroll remained thin, and there did not appear to be much new in the way of office leases across the country, including in critical battleground states such as Ohio.

      But he’s running critically low on time to build an operation that can compete with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

      In addition to being ahead of Trump in polls in key states, Clinton has maintained a staff of about 700 for months, opened up offices across the country and already spent $67 million on general-election ads. Trump put out his first ads days ago, spending $5 million to air them in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

      I am anxiously waiting for PredictIt “Will Trump drop out in September” wager.

      Lion of the Turambar

      August 21, 2016 at 12:59 pm

    • Yeah wasn’t there a time when this blog pretended to be numerate and attempted to use actual math and statistics to prove points. Glomming on to outlier polls make you look some combination of stupid and emotionally unbalanced.

      I want Trump to win so I’m not a nevertrumper by the actual defintion. I don’t think Trump will win but maybe he will because of ad spending or pivoting in tone or some external event. I didn’t think Trump would win the primaries so I’m hardly clairvoyant.

      Magnavox

      August 21, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    • (Hillary nods and nods and nods vigorously.)

      When she collapses from a seizure and her medic asks her how many fingers he’s holding up.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      August 21, 2016 at 1:54 pm

    • More data for the Trumpphobics to ignore:

      Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania

      http://www.cbs8.com/story/32806609/trump-leads-clinton-by-5-points-in-the-key-battleground-state-of-pennsylvania

      People’s Pundit Daily shows Trump ahead for the first time since August 1st. TRUMP 42.9% CROOKED HILLARY 42.0%

      https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/

      For Trump to be in this shape after his own mistakes plus the most relentlessly one sided hate campaign in modern US media history is pretty good.

      Rifleman

      August 21, 2016 at 4:52 pm

  2. Back in the real world, Clinton and Trump are tied in Georgia, of all places.

    DFG

    August 21, 2016 at 10:53 am

  3. I doubt that poll will convince them he’s in the lead, but they can’t deny the positive trend. If he keeps this up, a Wikileaks revelation could be what seals the deal.

    IHTG

    August 21, 2016 at 11:13 am

    • Exactly. But they’ll still deny it, and latch on to lunatic theories that he’s going to drop out and that They Predicted This if only we would have listened.

      dingodonkey

      August 22, 2016 at 10:33 am

  4. Online polls tend to attract skewed demographics, can be gamed, and are in no way more reliable than phone polls.

    And I don’t buy this “widespread cowardice” theory. The phone poll guy is only looking for information, knows perfectly well that the country is split in half politically, and isn’t going to badger you if you say Trump. After the survey is over, you’ll never hear from him again. It’s not like he’s a friend or family member. You’d have to be a real wuss not to answer honestly. So I doubt there are enough cowards out there to make up for the discrepancy between Trump and the Hildebeast.

    Optimism is fine, but let’s stay grounded in reality. Even with Trump’s rhetoric, it could be possible to win. But conservative media/punditry needs to back him and provide a counter-narrative. And they’re not doing that right now.

    Jason Liu

    August 21, 2016 at 11:22 am

    • People don’t think logically like that.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 21, 2016 at 12:14 pm

      • Remember the last “skewered poll” theory? People said Obama’s popularity was overstated because people were afraid of looking racist to pollsters. Turns out he was just popular.

        DollDancer

        August 21, 2016 at 5:35 pm

      • Hillary Clinton ain’t popular.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 21, 2016 at 6:10 pm

    • Online polls tend to attract skewed demographics,

      The margin of error of online polls is acceptable if the pollsters adjust the sample be representative.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      August 21, 2016 at 1:56 pm

    • Jason,

      The kind of people who don’t want to answer polls are not worried about looking bad in front of the pollster. They do not want their names, contact information, and voting preference entered into a permanent database.

      map

      August 22, 2016 at 12:01 am

  5. Trump’s dark speech was a hit.

    There are two times in this campaign where Trump has really been hurting: the Mexican judge flap and the terrorist infiltrator DNC speech. Yes the media waged an all out blitz on Trump but the public is smart enough to see past that stuff, it was Trump’s statements and behavior that were killing him.

    I don’t buy the LA Times poll, it has been pro Trump this entire cycle. But the trend is unmistakable. Hillary’s lead is down to 3 in Morning Consult (from 7 last week) and her lead in Ras is down to 2 and Trump will likely end up leading this weeks Ras poll.

    Otis the Sweaty

    August 21, 2016 at 11:27 am

    • The RCP average is probably in the ball park of where Trump really stands because the average balances out the outliers.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      August 21, 2016 at 1:57 pm

      • Fivethirtyeight is clearly much better and more sophisticated because it actually breaks it down state by state and predicts the electoral college results (you know, the thing that actually matters).

        Magnavox

        August 21, 2016 at 2:31 pm

      • Fivethirtyeight is clearly much better and more sophisticated because it actually breaks it down state by state and predicts the electoral college results.

        The RCP correctly predicted 49 out of 50 state results in 2012.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        August 22, 2016 at 8:35 pm

    • The outliers used to be Trump down by only 2 points. Now the outliers are Trump winning by a few points. So that points to an improvement.

      Magnavox

      August 21, 2016 at 2:09 pm

  6. Actually, I’m sorry, Morning Consult is 6, down from 7. Still, it is trending the right way.

    I suspect if the election were held today that Hil would win by 4.

    Otis the Sweaty

    August 21, 2016 at 11:31 am

  7. I stopped reading this blog several months ago because I felt the crazy people were starting to take over. Coming back, I can see that is indeed the case, with people trashing about wailing about the “globalists” and elaborate media conspiracies. I assume there’s been talked of rigged elections, too.

    The longer this election plays out, the more I’m convinced of the Occam’s Razor theory: voters don’t want a moron to be president, and Trump is clearly a moron. Is there a bit more nuance to it than that? Sure, but I think all evidence suggests that’s the core of it.

    And now Trump is pivoting away from his immigration policies! No more deportation force! Some kinda amnesty! (which he always hinted at supporting anyway). People should learn to stop worshipping politicians.

    DollDancer

    August 21, 2016 at 11:33 am

  8. Ted’s comment is on point. Trump didn’t let Manafort got because he felt Manafort was trying to turn him to GOPe and Manafort didn’t leave to jump ship from a dying campaign. Trump was never down 15 points.

    Trump let Manafort go because he felt Manafort left him unprepared for the hellfire the media reigned down on him after the DNC and then didn’t help him make the necessary adjustments to get control over the narrative again. Manafort’s job was to secure the delegates, fend off the GOPe/nevertrump delegate mutiny and have a successful RNC. Manafort’s usefulness had come and gone. So Trump brought in someone, Bannon, who knows the new media, knows populism/nationalism and the globalist threat. And he elevated someone else, Conway, the sharpen his message toward those ends.

    Andrew E.

    August 21, 2016 at 12:48 pm

  9. “Will #nevertrumpers please shut up now?”

    I thought you claimed that this election was too important to let Hillary win it?

    The chances of Trump winnings are infinitesimal. Therefor you should be rooting for a Trump drop out, because that would prevent you “game over” assessment.

    You know you are going to be writing a “I Guess I Was Wrong About Trump” post at some point in the future. Just get it out of the way now.

    Lion of the Turambar

    August 21, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    • Trump staying in is the best chance of Hillary not winning. No sane person could believe that someone else (Mitt Romney? Mike Pence? Jeb Bush?) could come in at this late hour and suddenly zoom ahead in the polls. For starters, Trump’s hardcore supporters will be pissed and many won’t show up to vote.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 21, 2016 at 2:17 pm

      • Hillary is the second most disliked person ever to run for President so we are running literally the only candidate from the primaries who could turn off more people (and put Utah and Georgia in play).

        Trump should bow out graciously because of the immigration fraud charges against Melania or to enroll Barron in a pop Warner league and endorse a Pence/Martinez unity ticket. Blame the media or something and throw support to Pence.

        I mean we were supposed to believe you about “game over” right? Thats EV = 0. Anything would be better as long as you thought the probability is higher, and all we have seen from Trump is mis-steps. You can’t win a election unless you have campaign workers and Trump refuses hiring them.

        Lion of the Turambar

        August 21, 2016 at 3:19 pm

      • Trump should NOT drop out. And he wont.

        We need to actually put to the test if Trump message is ok with all of usa.

        If he wins great. If he loses, well..

        Wt

        August 21, 2016 at 9:31 pm

      • Turambar. You used to be one of the better Auster style conservatives posting here, but jeez man, what happened? Why all the Trump hate. The alt-right has been waiting for a Trump style candidate to come along for ages. You’ve many times agreed that the only way a republican candidate can win is to completely steam role the media by never apologizing. In what way are Trump’s actions misteps? You think kowtowing to Kahn was some kind of mistep? Why should he bend the knee to someone who shouldn’t have been here to begin with?

        How do you explain his success so far? He steamrolled 16 high level politicians including a CIA connected political dynasty. He barely broke a sweat and he did it with a clinical precision seen only in farfetched TV shows and movies such as the Bourne Identity.

        We are literally watching something that only happens in movies or once a century before our very eyes. This will be the subject of movies where the movie doesn’t live up to the event itself.

        Are you too proud to be wrong just this one time?

        Or are you someone else who is actually a shill and stole the Turambar handle and this is all some big Hillary psyops.

        Lion is there way to check IP logs and verify this?

        The only reason generic republican beats Hillary right now is because no attack ads have been done and no smear jobs have been done on the GOPe candidates.

        OldTimer

        August 21, 2016 at 10:46 pm

      • “Or are you someone else who is actually a shill and stole the Turambar handle and this is all some big Hillary psyops.

        Lion is there way to check IP logs and verify this?”

        Legitimate posters often have their IP addresses change. I am nearly certain that Turambar has been the same person since 2012.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 21, 2016 at 11:00 pm

      • My pattern of typos form verifiable telemetry pattern across the years.

        It is also verifiable proposition that almost any other candidate would be doing better than Trump. What other candidate would be losing Utah and in danger in Georgia? Look at the RCP average in the battle ground states- Trump is losing every single battleground. Any other candidate would have raised more money, opened field offices and hired data analytics.

        What other candidate would have a non-stop string of gaffs and errors since the nomination? Attacking judges, complaining about rigged elections, attacking widows for a week, stepping on all the bad news of the opponent their own outbursts. Who else would be on their 3rd campaign manager in 100 days and be wondering allowed in august about going on a “very very nice long vacation” in August?

        But you guys refuse to engage reality. National polls dont matter and cherry picking the one poll that agrees with your outcome matters less. And even if the poll was accurate in theory, it wont be in practice because Clinton is spending hundreds of millions to make sure her supports are over represented in the actual voting turnout and Trump is spending nothing. The over representation of the Obama base is what killed Romney and while Clinton wont do as well she is sure trying and Trump is; he’d rather allocate money to hats.

        But none of you guys want to talk about a plausible scenario of why Trump wins because there is none but magic.

        Surely you dont have your hopes pinned on the debates? Trump was an amusing counter point in a field of 10 but a novelty. And it exposed that he knows next to nothing about the government. Notice that he refused to debate Cruz or Cruz and Kasch – because if moderators dont have to jump away to the next question or have someone trying to jump in saying they were mentioned Trump would look terrible. And he will not do well against a Hillary.

        It seems to be an accepted bit of wisdom that the Media is against Trump. Extend that a bit to “Against the GOP”. Who did Hillary Clinton run against in the primaries- a Socialist, a Republican and Martin O’Malley. The only tomato cans she could beat. And the one Republican she can beat, Trump, gets served up after he gets an unprecedented $2Billion in free media coverage in the primaries. Dissect the primary votes- Trump is only the nominee because of the votes of NY and NJ- and he is currently losing those states more badly than Romney. So Trump is our nominee because of two entities that dont intend to actually support him.

        I dont intend to vote for Trump because he is what Thomas Sowell called a “Black Redneck” embodying all the worst, self-destructive characteristics. And Trump is “Big Man” politics, devoid of any meaning except slavish support for your guy. And that is pathetic.

        Lion of the Turambar

        August 22, 2016 at 8:19 am

      • “What other candidate would have a non-stop string of gaffs and errors since the nomination? ”

        Hillary Clinton if the media hated her and was out to get her, the way they hate and are out to get Trump.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 22, 2016 at 10:11 am

      • Other than “my husband” and raising taxes on the middle class Hillary isnt the one injecting gaffs and unproductive comments like Trump does. No other GOP candidate would do this, hence they would be in a much better position to win.

        Trump is constantly throwing HRC a life line by diffusing her bad new by doing something stupid. WaPo has wrote story on “A porous ethical wall between the Clinton Foundation and the State Department” and Trump comes out claiming Obama was the Founder of ISIS. So what leads the news?

        Trump isnt running against Obama and “Obama literally founded ISIS” is not going to win Trump a single new vote. So why does he do it? Stupidity. Same thing with the “2nd amendment people” and a dozen other remarks.

        Is this a group blog? Didnt you write “Trump Needs an October Surprise”? Trump isnt going to win unless something outside his control happens.

        HRC must not be allowed to win
        Trump is in capable of winning

        ergo we need to move on to a viable candidate as soon as possible. Think of all the free media the announcement will bring!

        Lion of the Turambar

        August 22, 2016 at 1:20 pm

    • I don’t think you understand something critical. Trump cannot drop out and things cannot go back to what they were. This is because the GOP has been largely destroyed. That’s right. The Republican Party no longer exists. Trump has opened the Pandora’s box of nationalism and populism and there is no way of putting those back. You need to get on board with Trump because there is no real alternative and, if he fails, The GOP will cease to exist.

      map

      August 22, 2016 at 12:09 am

      • Goldwater ran in 1964 and then Nixon governed as a centrist all as part of the same GOP.

        Magnavox

        August 22, 2016 at 1:17 am

      • Goldwater ran in 1964 and then Nixon governed as a centrist all as part of the same GOP.

        Hah! In 85% white America. Those days are long gone. It’s either Trump or unchallenged Democrat rule leading to Civil War II.

        Andrew E.

        August 22, 2016 at 10:14 pm

  10. The live “polling guy” on the phone is a MYTH. Maybe it was true 30 years ago, but not now. The talking heads on TV reveal their ignorance by perpetuating this urban legend. Most of the country is comprised of non-competitive states (where no one gets polled) so I guess that’s how they get away with it.

    I live in Florida in the coveted “I-4 Corridor” of swing voters, and over the last 3 presidential election cycles have received 3 to 5 legitimate (not push) poll calls each general election season. They are typically from different polling outfits. For 12 years now, EVERY single call has been AUTOMATED. “How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election? Press 1 for not likely at all, press 2 for somewhat unlikely…” and so on.

    No one would every be embarrassed to answer honestly.

    And the calls always come to the landline, and never to our cell phones. Not once, ever. So the young and the poor and the hip, all sans landlines, are UNDERREPRESENTED. Sure, pollsters try to weight the data to account for this, but the more engineering they do to the raw results the more likely the end product is unreliable.

    bellabella

    August 21, 2016 at 1:33 pm

    • The UK has all the same issues, but it ended up the polls underestimated votes for Brexit, even though the biggest single predictor next to race was age. All the old white people in England, who voted 65%+ for Brexit, are the biggest group of people who actually answer land lines.

      Lot

      August 21, 2016 at 5:15 pm

  11. The new, improved, Trump messaging is the result of Kellyanne Conway’s influence. I’m not sure why she was able to get Trump to focus his approach while Manafort failed. But the important thing is it seems to be working.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    August 21, 2016 at 2:04 pm

  12. Also noticeable since bringing Bannon on, the media is back to their default mode of being biased, but not totally unprofessional or open about their bias against Trump. This is good for him. Also, the fact that Hillary has not been in the news except for the health conspiracies they’re trying to discredit (which only furthers the idea that she’s unhealthy) further makes Trump look like the only person running. If this keeps up, he’ll be running like an incumbent by October.

    Bilbo Baggins

    August 21, 2016 at 2:18 pm

  13. Addressed to black voters: What the hell do you have to lose! Donald Trump, 08/19/16, Lansing, MI

    E. Rekshun

    August 21, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    • it’s so ridiculous when internet losers use slurs like “moron” for Trump. A guy who’s worth between 5 and 10 billion dollars, made himself into a reality TV star, beat 16 experienced politicians at their own game and might just become the next President of the United States is the farthest thing from a moron. Trump has already accomplished more in life than 99.99999% of people ever will. And i’m sure all these loser anti-Trump posters are in that 99.99999% (probably at the the bottom of the pile). Next time a loser wants to trash Trump first tell me all the ways in which you are more successful than him. Should be good for a laugh.

      JimBonobo

      August 21, 2016 at 6:12 pm

      • “made himself into a reality TV star”

        I agree with the point of the post, but the Kardashians are also reality TV stars so that part doesn’t really mean much.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 21, 2016 at 6:34 pm

      • Depending on how much he inherited from his father he may have underperformed the s&p 500 significantly. Plus you don’t know how much he was just lucky in terms of what success he did have. And then being a big city property developer largely involves exploting connections (also inherited from his dad), charming people, buying influence, and marketing none of which require all that much intelligence.

        And most importantly he doesn’t appear to know anything about policy which makes him a moron in the way that matters most for a presidential candidate.

        Magnavox

        August 22, 2016 at 1:28 am

      • Trump is neither a prole nor a moron. He went to Wharton School of Business. Proles and morons don’t attend Ivy League schools. If a prole went to an Ivy League school, they would be elevated to at least middle class after that.

        Trump has some commoner attributes, but that is actually admirable and it’s a positive for his campaign.

        shiva1008

        August 22, 2016 at 3:12 am

      • “I agree with the point of the post, but the Kardashians are also reality TV stars so that part doesn’t really mean much.”

        Kris Kardashian was able to employ her moronic slut daughters and make an absolute killing. She’s also pivoted into other industries, e.g., PR. Kris is an absolute genius, just like Trump. That some may find their ways of making a fortune reprehensible is understandable.

        DdR

        August 22, 2016 at 10:13 am

      • ” Kris is an absolute genius, just like Trump.”

        I doubt that very much. Trump went to Wharton. Kris never went to college, worked as a flight attendant, then used her good looks to marry a somewhat successful lawyer husband, who she then cheated on. She had the good luck that the lawyer husband became a minor celebrity from defending O.J., and then some unnamed smart nerdy people doing the real work produced a reality TV show.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 22, 2016 at 10:21 am

      • Also, look at the cast of Jersey Shore, rich celebrities all of them, and also all complete morons.

        But the people who created the show, especially the first season, smart nerdy people writing the plot, setting up the house, editing all of the video, they were brilliant at what they did and worked hard at it.

        Value transference at work, the real geniuses behind Jersey Shore got paid regular middle-class salaries while some moron guidos became rich from their labor.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 22, 2016 at 10:27 am

      • Magnavox, spewing more ignorant nonsense again. It is well established that Trump began his career with a $1 million loan from his father. A loan, to be paid back, not a gift. Trump’s wealth comes from betting big on a NYC/Manhattan resurgence during a low point when no one else wanted to risk capital for development. And Trump was right, in large part through his own efforts to redevelop many parts of the city. And doing it while navigating the politicians, unions, zoning commissions from outside the Jewish power centers. It’s a stunning achievement.

        And he did it while living an extremely wealthy lifestyle which blows apart all the stupid “S&P 500” nonsense, since extracting wealth from the “portfolio” to live on ruins the return calculations.

        Andrew E.

        August 22, 2016 at 10:58 am

      • With inflation, $1 million then is like $10 million today. Not only did he get a loan, his father taught him the business from the inside, an education that’s impossible to buy.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 22, 2016 at 11:18 am

      • Sure, Trump had advantages. His work experience with his father more than anything else. But none of those advantages guaranteed success.

        Andrew E.

        August 22, 2016 at 11:20 am

      • Trump can barely speak in coherent sentences, cannot learn or retain new information, cannot memorize things, cannot adhere to basic social conventions regarding decency and manners, cannot take instructions, and cannot be self-critical. The jury is still out regarding his early years as a businessman, and how much credit he deserves for the money he made in that ear, but the vast majority of his life has been spent as a famous-for-being-famous TV celebrity whoring out his name to proles who want to buy whatever garbage he slapped his name on.

        I think he has a natural talent at what he does, but he is not a smart man.

        DollDancer

        August 22, 2016 at 12:12 pm

      • morons don’t attend Ivy League schools

        LOL! Of course they do. That’s the whole point. So that rich parents with dumb kids can buy them a piece of paper proclaiming them brilliant.

        While it’s true that the average Ivy League student has a 143 IQ as measured by the SAT, they were selected by the SAT so by definition, they were selected for getting lucky on that one test. They regress precipitously to the mean when given a different test, especially an official IQ test like the WAIS where they scored in the 120s in two different studies:

        https://pumpkinperson.com/2015/04/13/do-harvard-students-have-an-average-iq-of-122/

        https://pumpkinperson.com/2016/01/15/more-evidence-that-ivy-league-students-average-iq-122/

        Further, 1% of Harvard students had WAIS IQs around 90 when you adjust for inflated norms.

        People are obsessed with the threshold model that says you must have IQ X to accomplish Y.

        A more realistic model is probabilistic. An IQ of X increases the odds of doing Y, but it seldom imposes a hard floor.

        So just as it’s been possible for a super short guy to make the NBA, it’s possible for a moron to make Harvard & the Forbes 400 especially if his inheritance was worth $40 million as of 1974 according to vox.com

        http://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9248963/donald-trump-index-fund

        His dad was also one of the 400 richest Americans & built the Trump brand & reportedly helped Trump secure loans.

        Now having said that, Trump did display high verbal IQ in dominating reality TV given his show was much more verbal than the kardashians or Jersey shore.

        Mark Cuban attempted a similar show and it was boring as hell because Cuban’s comments & tirades were much less entertaining.

        Also Trump is virtually the only public figure to reach the pinnacle of success in three different occupations (real estate, TV & politics) & such adaptability might imply high IQ, depending on how it ends.

        On the other hand, neither Trump nor his kids could figure out how to multiply 17 by 6, implying an IQ below that of self-made Sarah Palin & her kids 🙂

        https://pumpkinperson.com/2016/08/06/did-i-overestimate-trumps-iq/

        pumpkinperson

        August 22, 2016 at 1:01 pm

      • Value transference at work, the real geniuses behind Jersey Shore got paid regular middle-class salaries while some moron guidos became rich from their labor.

        Without moron guidos that millions of people can relate to, the Jersey shore would not be a hit, regardless of how clever the producers are. But clever producers are a dime a dozen so they get little money.

        Of course guido morons are a penny a dozen, but these particular guidos have become the face of the show so they can’t just be replaced, while the producers can. I guess that’s an example of value transference through branding.

        pumpkinperson

        August 22, 2016 at 2:41 pm

      • It’s well established that’s what Trump says and it’s well established that it is a bold faced lie to claim that is all the money he got from his father. The fact is exactly how much he inherited isn’t known.

        But news reports show that it’s a bit of a mystery how much Trump inherited from his father, Fred Sr. When he died in 1999, the New York Times reported that “his estate has been estimated by the family at $250 million to $300 million.” The New York Daily News reported at the time that the estate was worth $100 million to $300 million based on family estimates.

        But how was it divvied up? That’s something that reporters have tried to sort out during the 2016 race.

        Trump took over his father’s business, and he inherited money when his father died. Verifying the specific amounts remains difficult.

        http://www.politifact.com/florida/article/2016/mar/07/did-donald-trump-inherit-100-million/

        What you said about the fact that he has spent a lot is a valid point and one I have made before. Plus I made a bunch of other good points in the in the post you responded to that you didn’t even bother trying to refute.

        Lion: He also inherited his father’s connections. So much of real estate development is just getting the right variance and zoning from the government.

        Magnavox

        August 22, 2016 at 4:56 pm

      • Trump’s experience with his father came with some connections but his father warned him away from trying to move his business into Manhattan because he wasn’t Jewish, therefore unclear how much success he would be able to have.

        Andrew E.

        August 22, 2016 at 10:06 pm

  14. IHTG

    August 21, 2016 at 6:21 pm

  15. I’m no fan of Kardashians but Kim Kardashian is worth 150 million dollars. most tramps have zero net worth. she’s way smarter than most.

    JimBonobo

    August 21, 2016 at 7:35 pm

  16. “The new, improved, Trump messaging is the result of Kellyanne Conway’s influence. I’m not sure why she was able to get Trump to focus his approach while Manafort failed. But the important thing is it seems to be working.”

    For all the crap about Trump being a misogynist, most of his executives are women and they’re paid more than the male executives, too. For some reason, Trump listens and responds better to women.

    destructure

    August 21, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    • True, but interestingly he seems to have got it wrong twice with his first two wives. Meaning he wasn’t able to see before marrying that they wouldn’t be able to handle his work schedule and that this would eventually drive them apart. (Though I suspect he sensed it with Marla but married her anyway since they had dated for so long and it was clearly what she wanted very much) Melania clearly gets it though.

      Andrew E.

      August 22, 2016 at 10:06 am

      • Trump has matured a lot since his 40s and 50s. He’s grown from being a wealthy fun craving playboy to a down to earth patriarch who is not trying to steward his cultural heritage from destroying itself. His sex drive has probably also settled down from getting older so variety is not as necessary for him. Plus Melania is like 20-30 years younger than him and that’ll keep any 70 year old happy.

        As for why Trump gets along better with women… In a perverse way he almost is one. His emotional intelligence is off the charts. I’m betting he can read a room and alpha centipede maneuver his way around it with a blindfold on. Even his temperament for better or worse is woman like. Who better to deal with the leftist feminized imbeciles than a vindictive female personality fully energized by testosteronic rage? His vindictive nature is both his greatest strength and his greatest weakness. Few western men are left that can wage total war like he can anymore. Most of us couldn’t kill a deer if we were starving. We say we can, but look that poor creature in the eye and tel yourself it has any less right to life than you do.. It’s harder to deport the unwanted and tell the middle class to tighten their belts than it looks. Thankfully his entire career has been built on firing the right people.

        The man has been hiding his power for a while, probably saving it for his greater enemies all at once. I hope he makes them all pay for what they’ve done to the good people of this great nation.

        Old Timer

        August 22, 2016 at 2:27 pm

      • Andrew — I don’t think Trump got it wrong twice. Just once. He’s never had a sex scandal or divorce that didn’t involve Marla. Marla saw a billionaire who was spending too much time at the office and on the road and not enough time at home with his family and targeted him like a heat seeking missile. She even made sure Ivana found out. She set out to become Trump’s mistress, wreck his marriage, get knocked up and marry him. And that’s exactly what she did. Then she immediately started running around. So while Trump may be twice-divorced, Marla should get most of the credit for both of them. In fact, I think his bragging about sleeping with other men’s wives has more to do with his insecurity over what Marla did to him than any basis in fact. I’ve yet to hear of a single married woman he’s been with.

        destructure

        August 23, 2016 at 12:32 am

    • For some reason, Trump listens and responds better to women.

      I do wish he had kept Manafort on to manage wonky internal campaign mechanics. His handling of NeverTrumpers and finishing up the primary was a skillful demonstration of his abilities in that area. But I suppose Manafort wouldn’t want to stay if he had to report to Conway when it came to messaging and strategy.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      August 22, 2016 at 8:41 pm

  17. OT: This old CNN article is being passed around on pro-Trump sites. I doubt Trump has ever talked to the dead.

    I think one reason the Clinton campaign doesn’t want Hillary talking to the press is that once you got her going you’d realize what a complete weirdo she is. Things like that gum anecdote in Newsweek’s Huma profile give the impression she’s been living in a glass jar for too long.

    “Book says Hillary talks to dead: First lady acknowledged ‘imaginary’ chats”
    http://www.cnn.com/US/9606/22/hillary.book/

    Richard

    August 22, 2016 at 11:58 am

  18. Amazing Trump flip-flop on immigration on Hannity today.

    Muscle

    August 25, 2016 at 1:39 am


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