Lion of the Blogosphere

Will the stock market crash if Trump is elected President?

To start, let me point out that the stock market is near its all-time high. The S&P 500 index is significantly higher than where it was at its previous 2007 peak (before the crash in 2008). Stock markets crash when they are near all-time highs, so even without the Trump factor, the market is in danger of crashing.

Then there is the observation that when the stock market does crash, it tends to happen in the fall. There’s no way of knowing if this is mere coincidence of if there is something to it. But the historical accident of previous crashes happening in the fall could cause the cycle to repeat itself again because the stock market is based as much on psychology as it is on the logic of financial valuations. If traders think that other traders will sell because it’s the fall and they think the market is risky in the fall, then they will want to sell before the other traders, leading to a cascade effect of selling.

And finally we get to Trump. The mainstream media has been pushing the meme that if Trump is elected president, it will be a “disaster” for the economy. For example, using the word “disaster” in the headline, Business Insider reports:

Willem Buiter, the chief economist at Citi, said in a note to clients on Thursday that a Trump win would weigh heavily on financial markets, and that his policies would deter global trade and economic growth.

Brian Klaas says in a Newsweek op-ed:

The second problem for Trump’s Frankenstein economics is that his seemingly contradictory proposals would be a disaster if they were enacted. Moody’s economic forecasting conducted a nonpartisan analysis of Trump’s proposals and concluded that they would lead to a loss of 3.5 million jobs. And they would cost the U.S. economy trillions of dollars of lost growth.

If Trump wins, some people actually believe the disaster predictions and will sell before everything goes to hell. And then there are those traders who may not believe the anti-Trump propaganda, but they believe that other people believe it and will want to sell first, because no one wants to be the last man holding the bag (that’s for Joe Sixpack holding mutual funds in his 401K).

Also, I think that some people will want the stock market to crash if Trump wins, in order to punish the stupid voters who elected him and to be able to say “see, we smart liberals told you so.”

Right now, everyone believes that Trump has no chance of winning, because he’s just too low class too win, and polling throughout the summer has shown a huge lead for Hillary. But if polls start showing that Trump is in the lead, this could trigger the stock market crash before the election even happens.

Or it might not happen that way at all. Predicting the stock market is beyond the power of most mortals. No one should buy or sell any securities based on this blog post which has been written strictly for entertainment purposes.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 15, 2016 at 12:27 pm

Posted in Investments, Politics

103 Responses

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  1. stock market is headed for a crash anyway, that’s why it might be best if Crooked Hillary wins and takes the blame for the coming collapse.

    If Trump takes over and there is a recession, he is going to need to offset it with massive gov spending and voter suppression laws to keep power.

    Otis the Sweaty

    September 15, 2016 at 12:32 pm

  2. What are the market fundamentals? Russian market will go up if Trump wins and l’m gonna make money there. I’m not selling anything, but has been keeping all my new money in cash ready for the next crash to jump in when blood is on the streets. I think we can make good money here. Lion doesn’t know, I don’t know, nobody knows, but when it crashes and you jump in, you jump out with money.


    September 15, 2016 at 12:40 pm

  3. Did Brexit go and crash the UK markets, as widely and hysterically predicted? Of course not. The FTSE is flying high.

    Feeder Farmer

    September 15, 2016 at 12:44 pm

    • No it didn’t, but the UK is a smaller market, and the Illuminati wanted to prevent a stock market crash to ensure that Hillary gets elected president.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      September 15, 2016 at 12:49 pm

      • I think they wanted a disaster to punish the nationalist rubes.

        David Pinsen

        September 15, 2016 at 10:03 pm

      • Was this addressed to me?


        Total genocide is the future.

        I don’t think it’s gonna happen just like this, though. I’m an optimist, but you never know.

        It’s your optimism in the face of impending total genocide which makes you one of the truly great Americans.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 18, 2016 at 10:47 am

    • In general there wont be a crash per se the day after the election if the news was expected because there would have been a sell off before the actual event.

      Lion of the Turambar

      September 15, 2016 at 4:18 pm

      • Unless polls before the election show Hillary will win, but the hidden Trump supporters come out and put Trump over the top in actual voting.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 15, 2016 at 5:43 pm

      • I agree. But is there any reason to believe that Trump will over perform his poll numbers since he has a very poor GOTV op and HRC has a rather advanced one?

        I think Trumps numbers would have to be at the outer edge of MOE for him to win states on election day. In which case no one (with cold heated monetary reasons on the line) will be surprised by the win and hence it would be priced in.

        Lion of the Turambar

        September 15, 2016 at 7:18 pm

      • No it didn’t, but the UK is a smaller market,

        That’s not the reason.

        The reason they could do nothing was that London is too important to the world financial markets to significantly punish without blowing the rest of the world stock exchanges out of the solar system.

        It was as hollow a threat as would be threatening to destroy New York’s financial markets with sanctions – even assuming the establishment is capable of doing it, should they pull the trigger, their target is so big that everyone else would go down with them.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 15, 2016 at 7:43 pm

      • How is anyone here thinking the market won’t crash with trumps economic policies? That’s the whole damn point.. The market went up orders of magnitude at the expense of the 90% of the nation that doesn’t own equities or is neutral with respect to asset price risk (this is somewhat untrue on a certain level as government’s lavish retirement benefits depend on continued inflated asset prices). Fair value for he S&P after putting an end to zirp (which Trump can’t do himself but can appoint a fed chairman through strong arming congress, who will) is probably around 600ish. Most of the S&P growth from the 80s onward was not the Internet or any other bullshit explanation as you’ve heard it. The growth is directly correlated to total systemic leverage which has grown 1000% since 1980. So goes the leverage, so goes the S&P. The leverage btw was needed to finance our offshored industry which can’t sell goods to an American market without any money (credit and money are interchangeable in the short term).

        In a way trump is the perfect man for the US to whether such a storm because he won’t wince at providing a $300B stimulus package to provide 3 hots and a cot as the 50M or of work and additional 25-50 that will be (short term) fall into total destitution and need to get back on their feet. That and training to live a more trades/agriculture intensive lifestyle. Everyone should be able to own their own land and grow food to at least live on if they don’t have useful skills to barter with in this modern age.

        The end of labor arbitrage and cheap debt means total market collapse. And that’s ok for everyone (90%) except for Yakov and Lion.


        September 15, 2016 at 8:38 pm

      • @Old Timer
        ‘And that’s ok for everyone (90%) except for Yakov and Lion.’

        What’s OK, 3 hots and a cot? Everyone here has a stake in the market. Are you sure that you are on the right blog?

        Anyway, I don’t understand all these speculations. Nobody knows. I used to read Barron’s and WSJ, but they didn’t know either. So I’m staying invested in the indexes and playing oil and Russia, while accumulating a huge cash position. I think that in the next 10 years I’ll double and triple regardless of who is running the show.

        If you are not invested in the market, you must be a getto NAM, but you are not. Who are you then, a troll? Keep on trolling, because panic created by fear and greed is what exacerbates the intensity of the market swings and helps cool guys make cool money. I’m waiting for the blood on the streets, the absolute slaughter, the total capitulation, then I pull the trigger and BUY, BUY, BUY! I did it during the Ukrainian crises and am gonna do it again, because the market rollercoaster is driven by two basic forces: greed and fear. And these, mates, will not change. Ever. And, unless you are a Lysenkoist, you get my drift.

        Actually, as I’m getting older, I’m beginning to see the sense of keeping some gold in a Swiss bank. I used to a laugh at my friends doing it. I mean the money is just sitting there doing nothing. But as you get older, you need to have that hedge, you know. Nothing major, but to start with like $25-50,000 and keep adding a little.

        Man! 50 million with cots and 3 hots will need AC! There is no way they will survive without it in all these shelters. And who pays for the AC? Doesn’t realy matter, I think I’m gonna be good. But what will Lion do? JS will eat frogs in Montreal, or at least that’s what he’s saying.


        September 16, 2016 at 7:33 am

      • That and training to live a more trades/agriculture intensive lifestyle.

        Taking up an agricultural lifestyle is a sure way for much of that 90% to become homeless when less than 1% of the workforce can easily satisfy all of our agricultural needs.

        And there was nothing fundamentally wrong with the superb economic growth of the 80s. The 90s, if not great, were ok even with the internet bubble.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 16, 2016 at 6:27 pm

      • Yakov, let me preface the following comments with, I like you as a person (as you’ve presented yourself). You sound like a good provider for your family and a real mensch so to speak (and I say this despite the fact that yiddishisms make me cringe). A man who is a strong pillar of his community and a model to be emulated on some level.

        But…. Oh my G-d you are a prole rube. Actually you’re not that different from most wall streeters, but then again the Jews didn’t see the holocaust coming and the neocons didn’t see the collapse of the USSR coming. Nor do most normies see what a total Frankenstein on life support this market is. I think the problem is you are a doer. You replicate successful strategies regardless of long term sustainability (can you say prole?). Nowhere did I see a fundamental macro analysis of how US equities actually function or why you think they are a good play, especially in the interaction of complex shocks such as an end to outsourcing or cheap Mexican labor or an end to healthcare’s monopolistic practices.

        Sure… Stay invested in the market, keep propping it up and enjoy the winnings until it all collapses and takes the US into destitution. I guarentee you’ll be voting for the guy voting for the next bailout, because like social security and Medicare it’s an obvious necessity of laisez fair capitalists.

        Thankfully there is a small chance Donald trump might restore fiscal and monetary sanity to this clown pony show. No more bailouts for the upper middle class. (You are prole but your income level is upper middle and secondary income is upper middle).

        That being said I do wish you the best of luck mate. As my father says, I hope you make so much money that the government taxes you millions.


        September 16, 2016 at 10:54 pm

      • TUJ… You missed my point. My point was that a solid 50% of the populace is for lack of a better term unneeded. Since we no longer have the ruthless Darwinian capitalist Dickensonian environment of Victorian England as was chronicled in a Fairwell to Alms our technological evolution has progressed without the corresponding weeding out effect it had on the modernity incompatible masses of poors. The left half of the bell curve is simply unnecessary as lion keeps pointing out (or at least in the numbers we have). They have no useful skills to barter since we only need so many burger flippers. Barring some socialist/communist redistribution scheme, these people will die needlessly or worse yet become slaves to that very same socialism/communism. A return of family farming allows for those with only basic human survival skills to till the land and provide a modest existence for them and theirs.

        As for the 80s/90s. Again you missed my point. The grown you cite was driven primarily by the beginning of the 30 year leverage cycle which has culminated in today’s $57T of total systemic US debt (source: FED Z1 report).


        September 17, 2016 at 10:30 am

      • A return of family farming allows for those with only basic human survival skills to till the land and provide a modest existence for them and theirs.

        Reverting to that system will still take out too many who now sit in the middle and upper classes – how would an accountant today survive selling home raised chickens to Tyson chicken, for example?

        As for the 80s/90s. Again you missed my point. The grown you cite was driven primarily by the beginning of the 30 year leverage cycle which has culminated in today’s $57T of total systemic US debt (source: FED Z1 report).

        That was accumulated during the Bush II and Obama years. Under better leadership the debt would be smaller.

        The real problem is not fractional reserve banking, the problem is that unsatisfactory economic growth under Obama has caused the Fed to keep rates unnaturally low to paper over this slowness. Under robust economic growth comparable to the 80s and 90s the Fed could keep interest rates in a healthy range of 3-5%. QE is a sound strategy only if done to handle a temporary downturn. It is not a substitute for growth.

        There will probably be a collapse, likely starting with the euro currency, due to Western leftists warping their economies to fund their social engineering projects. But don’t think that when it happens gold is going to save you, foolish old man.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 17, 2016 at 12:07 pm

      • @Old Timer

        Thanks for the compliment. It takes one to know one, or at least that’s what they say. I’m just a little creature with limited IQ and intelligence.

        Nobody can predict the market, mate. So I take my chances. I realize it’s a risk, but if you are in it for the long hall, you’ve been good. Nobody knows the future. I’m an optimistic chap.

        What analysis let you to suggest that ‘Everyone should be able to own their own land and grow food to at least live on if they don’t have useful skills to barter with in this modern age.’? Last time it was tried was by Chairman Mao during Cultural Revolution. As the result of this ‘Great Leap Forward’ tens of millions starved to death. As an Oldtimer you should remember it. This is a bittere gelechter (I love yiddishism)! Like how is this gonna work. Tell me how much food a person needs to eat a year to live and how much land and labor is needed for him to provide himself with all his needs? What about utilities, clothing, health care? How will all these subsistence farmers manage? If there ever was a bizzare Utopia, then this is it! Let’s just go back to being hunter-gatheres, like these guys. This is so cool.


        September 17, 2016 at 9:05 pm

      • ‘But don’t think that when it happens gold is going to save you, foolish old man.’

        Was this addressed to me? Not sure. Anyway, it’s a hedge, not a panacea, you know. If everything goes to hell and everything disintegrates into mayhem, I’m gonna take up arms and fight for the remaining food, fuel and animals to survive. This is Darwin, mate. The survival of the fittest. Get you tribe armed, organized and start seizing territory, wealth, slaves (yup, slavery will be back). Exterminate the enemy, they eat too much and there isn’t enough for everyone, you know. Total genocide is the future.

        I don’t think it’s gonna happen just like this, though. I’m an optimist, but you never know. Just be ready to go fully tribal.

        Mates, here is a great story by a great writer. A must read.


        September 17, 2016 at 9:26 pm

      • The debt accumulation started under Reagan. It was happenstance that it accelerated exponentionally under Bush and Obama because that’s what debt does if you tryto use it, to prop up growth. The problem with those two boys is a lack of principals, not the nominal amount of debt they tacked on. Reagan would have probably done the same as he clearly had no problem passing laws that would eventually bankrupt he United States (EMTALA).

        I never said I liked gold. The idea that fractional reserve banking is worse than gold is asinine at best and regressive at worst. The current problem with the banking system is a lack of a one dollar of capital standard which basically allowed funancial insitutions to multiply the amount of credit out of control. They are essentially counterfeiting money right now.

        Depressions happened under the gold standard as well. I do think gold is special though, my view on this changed over the last year. Since money is a trust phenomenon, it makes sense that gold is so psychologically anchored as valuable to most people that it makes sense to treat it as a store of value for apocalyptic situations. As long as people have stuff to barter gold will have value. It’s really all about evaluating psychology. In a Venezuala style meltdown will people trade toilet paper for gold? Probably, unless it’s their last roll.

        Quantitative easing on the other hand… Is useless. Liquidity games almost never have a place in the financial system because any true liquidity crises would find strategic investors to solve the problem. A fake liquidity crisis is actually a solvency crisis. You can’t earn your way out of insolvency barring an economic miracal (eg. You discover a way to do what you are doing at 1/2 the price, thus doubling margins and making yourself unforseeably profitable). Unfortunately for our financial institutions, they rarely generate anything of value beyond basic intermediation, though they dress is up as fancy scientific stuff. They are at the limits of their profitability.

        People also can’t seem to accept non exponential growth or no growth on a finite planet with finite resources in a fully developed western economy. The next big growth spurt will be a reduction in the cost of energy or a push into space travel. So thorium or hadron collider discovers gravitons. Or we build a space elevator to lower the cost of space travel.

        We currently have a population that works 45 hours a week on average and earns $50k per year on average. The only way to increase wealth is to either cut people’s hours by increasing their efficiency or increase their earnings. Efficiency improvements are more likely as certain jobs do have a cap on their inherent value, however we could decrease hours but people want to buy more goods so wind up working double the jobs.. In order for this to happen there have to be new things people want. Too many items in today’s society are priced not by intrinsic value but by class demand. If all of a sudden everyone made an upper middle class income most of the items priced to appeal to the upper middle class would go up in price to justify their exclusivity so that again only 10% of that slice of the population could but them.

        Yakov, the chairman Mao collectives failed because they are collectives. I’m suggesting people be able to buy land cheaply for farming purposes, but you are right that even that can’t be done for 50M useless people. I guess they’ll need full blown socialist welfare benefits just to be able to eat.

        Liberals often brag about how they made life better for the little guy, but all they did was cause a population explosion of people who can’t support themselves and will eventually suffer destitution as the wealth of the US continues collapsing. If only leftist scum ever had to pay for the misery they inflict. They are unworthy of the eradication that even the lowest forms of vermin recieve.


        September 18, 2016 at 1:05 am

      • The debt accumulation started under Reagan. It was happenstance that it accelerated exponentionally under Bush and Obama because that’s what debt does if you tryto use it, to prop up growth.

        The proportion of debt matters. At a more moderate GDP-debt ratio as was the case in 2000, the nation could carry the burden from Reagan and Clinton without substantial difficulty.

        Unfortunately for our financial institutions, they rarely generate anything of value beyond basic intermediation, though they dress is up as fancy scientific stuff. They are at the limits of their profitability.

        There is value in finance.

        Businesses could not operate on a day to day basis without financial institutions because almost no business has enough liquid cash on hand to fund their operations on a cash basis. Those business which do have enough to operate on cash only (Apple), don’t. The lesson for banks is that their relationship to the rest of the economy is like a bicyclist to their bicycle: the slower the bike (economy) is moving (growing) the higher the risk of the rider (banks) falling over.

        The current weakness of financial institutions is the result of business being strangled by progressives. This absence of real growth has forced big finance to look for profits in non-traditional, less lucrative pseudo-niches such as green energy, excessive liquidity, and abnormal financial products such as derivatives. Whatever profits they could make with this type of scrounging is about to come to an ugly end.

        But when the end does come it will have been brought about by terrible growth policies, not an inherent flaw in the role of finance by itself.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 18, 2016 at 10:44 am

      • While finance is necessary, the economic system is structured in such a way that those who work in finance are able to transfer value to themselves, while people doing other necessary jobs, like collecting garbage (civilization, at least in urban areas, would collapse without garbage collection), get paid low salaries.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 18, 2016 at 10:51 am

      • While finance is necessary, the economic system is structured in such a way that those who work in finance are able to transfer value to themselves, while people doing other necessary jobs, like collecting garbage (civilization, at least in urban areas, would collapse without garbage collection), get paid low salaries.

        Somewhat true.

        As I argued on my blog, true value is unknowable. Because true economic value can never be fully determined, the game in value transference industries is to make others overpay for their services. Because value transferers best understand the history, inputs and factors that create perceptions of value, they are best positioned to know how to manipulate the value perceptions of clients.

        The better they are at this the better they can make the less informed overpay:

        I will expand on this point on how unsatisfactory liberal economics is by pointing out that liberal theories are still operating, in a certain sense, under assumptions from a 19th century Newtonian reductionist view of price and value. This reductionist perspective holds that exact economic value can be determined by a scientific, liberal government given enough information.

        Liberals have not updated these “Newtonian” sentiments about price signalling for the 20th century.

        In reality, rather than following a Newtonian “billiard ball”/derivative model that can, with enough information, be projected with perfect accuracy ahead of time, in markets the true behavior of price and value fluctuations resembles “Heisenbergian” uncertainty no matter how much information any type of actor has: The exact value (position) of any economic activity (particle) engaged in by a private or public actor is unknowable until the activity is complete and results judged (the particle is “observed”).

        The best any economic actor can hope for is that their actions result in an acceptable range of profitable outcomes beforehand, rather meet exact numeric value because true value is inherently unknowable.

        Take the following scenario: In the first quarter of the business year, a manufacturer planned to produce x amount of their most profitable product in the third quarter. The production plan assumed the availability of a key supply input from a supplier at an anticipated price. However, in the second quarter that supplier goes out of business and the remaining suppliers all offer the same supplies at a price so high that the production planned is cancelled and whatever capital the business has left is reallocated to a new activity.

        In this scenario, the true value of the activity was wrongly judged at the planning stage because of a purely random event. And even if the production had gone as planned, there would be no scientifically provable certainty that the chosen economic activity was better than other activities the company could have invested in.

        All economies must operate in a maze of probabilities, time dependencies, and uncertainty which cannot be fully anticipated by any actor, private or public ahead of time. Therefore the liberal assumption that central management of economic activity can be made omniscient enough to determine which economic activity to engage in is false because the laws of statistics will not allow them to ever have perfect information,. And since they are further removed from the point of decision than a private actor, liberal economics will be relatively non-competitive.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 18, 2016 at 11:02 am

      • Lion, garbage collectors get paid royaly and transfer plenty of wealth to themselves. Find a better example. Dishwashers? Or are machines doing already? I dunno.


        September 18, 2016 at 11:07 am

      • In New York City, the unionized garbage collectors make good money for work that only requires brawn and not brains. But that’s not the case all over.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 18, 2016 at 11:12 am

      • TUJ what you described as being a necessary feature of finance is your plain old commercial banks treasury management unit. This is a commodity product and we don’t need the current level of obfuscation to have accounts receivable clear for a business. I highly recommend Karl Denninger work on these subjects as he covered literally every angle of this debate and the conclusion is that modern finance as it exists today is a giant wealth transfer scheme from shareholders (the rube ones… Not the Blackrocks and Fidelity’s of the world) to the elites. That’s it, that’s all these complex swaps and derivatives are. ZeroHedge type sites have been harping on this for years. You don’t need 10 layers of liquidity intermediation to make sure payroll gets covered on time.

        Most corporations don’t even use banks for liquidity anymore, the Fortune 500 keeps fat stacks on hand ever since the 2008 fiasco and money markets failing. Why do you think the asset backed paper market is virtually gone? (Down from $1.3 to $300B) the megacorps hold tons of cash on hand. The small businesses just get hard to come by commercial loans. The rest of the game is played in the currency markets where complex currency swaps are used to make fees for the bank and “hedge” risk for the international corporate clients. The real juicy part of zirp is you get useless investment banking activity like Microsoft’s purchase of LinkedIn. See below for analysis:

        Sadly this link no longer works because Karl has gone Galt, but if you can find the original in the way back machine or something…

        But anyway… All this financial activity does is destroy jobs to enrich CEO payout packages.

        As for Lions comment about garbage men… Garbage men get paid less because there are so many people qualified to do the job. Life is not bent to your standards of right and wrong, likewise just because a job is important and mission critical doesn’t mean it is lucrative. You have to stop thinking in these fairness terms or just admit your a full blown socialist and follow your ideas to their logical conclusion. Which is fine. Just be honest about it.

        There’s no internet rule that’s says you can’t be alt-right and a socialist. Hell the hole idea of the alt right is about helping the middle class because they feel like the elites are violating the social contract.

        Really if you think garbage men deserve a bigger share of the equity pie (think of society as one big value pie and everyone is a stockholder), then we need a system of credits where everyone owns a share of the nation and different blocks of people from the nation can engage in collective bargaining by using their equity shares to form a representative coalition with one point person who represents their interests. Call it a union, call it a shareholder meeting, but this is fundamentally what you are arguing about. How to fairly divide a pie 50,000 different ways, or however many professions there are in America…

        Oh and just to make one comment on the actual topic. There ain’t going to be no crash until Trump replaces the Fed chairman with a ZeroHedge style contrarian. Even then the Fed board of governors vote on monetary policy so it’d be difficult to get rates back to 4-5% over just one 4-8 year presidency. Your basically have to fire every regional Fed chairman.

        The best thing Trump can do is balance the budget by punishing the medical monopolies and reinstate Glass-Steagal. Also refuse to bailout the banks and try to keep NIRP (negative interest rate policy) at bay. Also end outsourcing and begin the reverse and end illegal immigration.

        These five things will return rates to normal due to 1) crushing the “profitability” of the Fortune 500 – most of the money will now go to employees who will in turn buy stuff, staving off a total collapse of these impudent traitors. 2) crash the banks because the S&P “crashes” to 600 due to reduced earnings expectations 3) annihilate the Feds ability to continue zirp because the primary dealers are cooked at this point and a power realignment is forced in the system 4) economic growth resumes fueled by small local businesses because healthcare is cheap again. Can you say $300 for an MRI paid in cash? Now small business can compete with large corporations on a level playing field. Oh and trump will crackdown on lobbying and corruption making it hard for big companies to resist upstarts which are less beauracratic and more nimble 5) restore monetary velocity as the poorest citizens find their standard of living just overall fucking double with the end of the barrios and the elimination of ghettoization of their neighborhoods through section 8 pozzification and various other liberal cockamamie schemes.

        Rates will then be normalized as the economy just healed.



        September 18, 2016 at 11:03 pm

      • “Really if you think garbage men deserve a bigger share of the equity pie”

        I don’t think they do, I’m just point out that it’s a necessary job, so just because a job is necessary doesn’t mean it has to make you rich. The are many times more people who could do banking jobs than there are such jobs available.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 18, 2016 at 11:57 pm

    • “Did Brexit go and crash the UK markets, as widely and hysterically predicted? Of course not. The FTSE is flying high.”

      Every financial analyst in the days before the Brexit vote was attempting to scaremonger the vote by promising a major market crash/depression/financial calamity if Brexit passes, and sure enough they managed to drive the markets down for a few days on scaremonger talk before the fundamentals reasserted themselves.

      ” I think that some people will want the stock market to crash if Trump wins, in order to punish the stupid voters who elected him and to be able to say “see, we smart liberals told you so.””

      I think if Trump is even or ahead going into election day we’ll see the same sort of scare mongering we saw in the days before the Brexit vote, for the same reasons, and probably with the same result.

      Mike Street Station

      September 15, 2016 at 5:34 pm

  4. The highly regarded Otis Index has Crooked Hillary up 2.9 points. The momentum may not be as strong for Trump as some people think.

    Otis the Sweaty

    September 15, 2016 at 12:44 pm

    • Anyone who follows this political circus with Clinton vs Trump and believes in it, is an -d–t?

      Do you think radio talk show hosts and other media pundits take it seriously? Most of them are multimillionaires.


      September 15, 2016 at 3:15 pm

  5. For fuck’s sake. I want to see Buiter’s and Klaas’s track record on predicting stock market fluctuations before I put one ounce of credence into their predictions. Are they among the experts who predicted massive fall-out from the Brexit? Did they spend 2003-2006 warning the public about sub-prime mortgage, CDOs, and automated trading? Or is this just two Beltway pundits masturbating over fantasies of the Impending Disaster if their Chosen One doesn’t get elected?

    Art Metz

    September 15, 2016 at 12:45 pm

  6. The stock market is dependent upon predictability. You can have a tightly regulated economy, but if the regulation is predictable, then traders are okay with it.
    If you have an unregulated economy, and it is difficult to predict an outcome, then traders are not okay with it.
    Clinton represents a predictable outcome. Trump does not. That’s why traders don’t like Trump.

    Half Canadian

    September 15, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    • Butter did a good job last time around (2008, that is), that’s how he got his current position. On the other hand, he’s working for The Man now so who knows how freely he can speak.


      September 15, 2016 at 3:00 pm

  7. When Obama was reelected in 2012, there was a slight fall but then things picked up. The same people predicting a Trump crash are probably the same ones who predicted a Brexit crash.


    September 15, 2016 at 2:40 pm

  8. it’s certainly an example of “asymmetric risk”. puts on SPY or TLT for nov 18 aren’t that expensive. i’ll load up myself.

    and it’s not so much that trump would ruin the economy, it’s that hillary is a “known quantity”; trump is a “random variable”, thus riskier.

    Trumpocalypse Now

    September 15, 2016 at 2:41 pm

  9. It’s about eight years since the last big crash, so I’d say we’re due for one now. (Based on 1987, 1992, 2001, 2008.) How unfortunate that things still feel pretty wobbly.


    September 15, 2016 at 3:03 pm

    • What will drive the next crash?


      September 15, 2016 at 3:30 pm

      • progressive tears

        imperial goy

        September 15, 2016 at 4:36 pm

      • the prc real estate bubble.

        Trumpocalypse Now

        September 15, 2016 at 5:30 pm

      • recessions are not strange. they’ve occurred about every 7 years as long as records have been kept.

        and QE is not an immunization. japan has had recessions since the early 90s despite continuous QE.

        the drivers of the recent sell-offs in august and january have been china and oil.

        and these weren’t one-off sell-offs, so to say.

        the prc IS gonna blow up, and…

        $26 a barrel?

        you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

        shale oil + electric cars + global japanification/deflation = super cheap oil.

        shovel money into DWTI…periodically, not all at once…you’ll do better than XOP.

        or just sell CL futures.

        Trumpocalypse Now

        September 15, 2016 at 5:43 pm

      • That’s the trillion dollar question, isn’t it?


        September 15, 2016 at 5:50 pm

  10. I’m hoping so. I have money to spend.

    imperial goy

    September 15, 2016 at 4:02 pm

  11. I think they would intervene actually due to the derivatives issue again. Many stocks are linked to the much larger derivatives market. And the only things derivatives do is hide risk in the system (although they always argue they eliminate it). Should the market tank, someone big is bound to get hit hard and take the rest of the system down.

    Today that someone is Deutsche Bank. Tomorrow, with more financial deregulation it will be the National Bank of Yemen. And then the next, a car finance company in Montana. Eventually nothing with a CDS on it will be allowed fail. That is the paradox of financial liberalisation. It brings communism.

    Ever wonder why sovereign defaults have been banned for instance?

    The Philosopher

    September 15, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    • banks are safer than they’ve ever been. european banks are safer as a group than any.

      for example, lehman had a capital ratio of something like 2.5%. swedbank has a cet1 of 24%. intesa and caixa did well in the recent stress tests. it’s the once burned twice shy phenomenon now. some banks are super cheap.

      the australian and chinese banks are the dangerous ones…real estate bubbles pop eventually.

      Trumpocalypse Now

      September 16, 2016 at 3:27 pm

    • and given that a commercial bank and a highly leveraged private debt closed-end fund are…

      the same thing…

      one should always have some banks in his portfolio.

      Trumpocalypse Now

      September 16, 2016 at 3:29 pm

      • Doesnt matter how many are safe. Its the ones that are unsafe that are linked in ways we dont even know (and the market or their own bank execs dont know either) that cause pandemonium. Long term capital management wasnt even a deposit taker, ibank or clearinghouse and it had to be bailed out.

        If a specialised credit analyst team at any rating agency of your choice who follow these things 24/7 and banks own auditors cant figure out if a bank is tough enough, what chance does anyone else with far less info?

        In any case larry summers has a paper out arguing cap ratios havent fixed it. I havent read it yet.

        Many of these stress tests are pr exercises. Nobody seriously thinks the banks could be independent qithout gov bailout guarantees and the obligatory once a decade bad debt warehouse (backed by the government) to cleanse balance sheets.

        Take away depo ins, gov guarantees and central bank liquidity and most banks would have junk bond yields purely to reflect covariant derivative exposure risk alone, never mind credit, market or op risk.

        The leverage ratio was a good step but banks spend billions on fin engineering to hide most of their risk from regs.

        If you want a free market remove guarantees, depo insurance, central banks, deregulate payment processing and depo taking and allow corporates to become trust banks again (like gen electric got burned at). Wed have a bust every 2 years but at least idiots wouldnt still believe in liberetardationism, get a shower and maybe start lifting to reduce their 34% body fat which is pumping to much autism into their minds.

        The Philosopher

        September 17, 2016 at 9:11 am

      • i agree regarding the central banks. that and drugs are my two points of agreement with libertarians. my only points of agreement.

        very few understand what a bank really is.

        take for example the nuveen closed end fund NSL…

        this is what a bank is.

        your cash is just a loan to the bank.

        It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

        i am not anti-bank.

        i am anti-central bank and all the hocus pocus.

        Trumpocalypse Now

        September 17, 2016 at 9:56 pm

  12. I remember the last time you made a killing investing in oil companies right at their peak.

    Jokah Macpherson

    September 15, 2016 at 5:56 pm

  13. Coolidge and Clinton saw by far the largest stock market gains during their two terms. Socialist Obama’s stock-market performance to date puts him roughly in a tie for third place, along with socialist FDR, liberal Republican Eisenhower, and libertarianish Reagan.

    Here are the hard numbers, compliments of Business Insider:

    Mark Caplan

    September 15, 2016 at 6:42 pm

    • Correlation doesn’t imply causation. Who is in office is only relevant if you can connect it to a particular policy. Often a policy doesn’t go into full effect until after a president is out of office. And why assign economic results to a president rather than congress? Congress makes the laws and regulations.


      September 15, 2016 at 8:29 pm

  14. Anyone else not know what half the words these guys are using mean? For example, WTF is a “derivative”? WTF is a “future”? How do people end up knowing how to use these words?


    September 15, 2016 at 7:14 pm

    • A derivative is financial security that “derives” its price from some underlying asset. A stock option is a derivative because it’s price depends on the price of the underlying stock. A future is a derivative that derives it price from an underlying commodity like oil or natural gas or pork bellies, etc.

      Most derivatives traded in the marketplace are bullsh*t and don’t really represent a real claim on some real asset. But they were created over the decades to keep financial markets viable as those markets became more and more disconnected from the real economy (actual goods and services). When the big crackup happens most derivatives will fail with the best case being holders being paid out in helicopter money.

      Andrew E.

      September 15, 2016 at 8:25 pm

    • Surely You’re Joking, Mr Feynman

      but i don’t get the joke. flew over my head at 36,000 feet.

      Trumpocalypse Now

      September 15, 2016 at 8:36 pm

    • Well, Mate these are various investment vehicles. You don’t necessarily need to understand them, just stick to indexing. These are for mavens.


      September 15, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    • ‘How do people end up knowing how to use these words?

      By hitting the books, for example, or working on Wall Street. As my Wing Chun Guido teacher used to say – knowledge is power. On this blog you are expected to understand these things.


      September 15, 2016 at 10:32 pm

    • Visit . There are links to a dictionary of investing terms at the bottom of the site’s main page.


      September 15, 2016 at 10:44 pm

  15. Yes. Stocks will fall following a Trump election.

    Without a Democrat President to protect, the Federal a Reserve bank will undertake a long overdue tightening of interest rates ending the easy bubble money that’s been propping up the stock market even when the underlying companies have low/bad growth.


    September 15, 2016 at 7:32 pm

    • the central banks of the world are staffed by people, not aliens.

      the ONLY way any of them will ever do a market torpedoing tightening is if they’ve “bet on it” themselves.

      that’s a-whole-nother level of corruption, but possible.

      mark my words…

      for most of the next 5 years the long bond will have a ytm < 2%.

      it's called "japanification".

      Trumpocalypse Now

      September 15, 2016 at 8:40 pm

  16. hey lion, this is OT but @infectedbomb makes a good point about this article.


    September 15, 2016 at 8:03 pm

  17. Are your other posts written for entertainment purposes? With the exception of guidos and anything Staten Island, much of the comments posted by your readers do not invoke fun, but real seriousness. Most of the contents here would not incite smiles and laughs at a social gathering.


    September 15, 2016 at 9:19 pm

    • Of course the blog is for entertainment purposes.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      September 16, 2016 at 12:23 am

      • Readers of the right -0-sphere aren’t commenting about their enemies, because it’s fun. A lot of them might be socially isolated or lonely, and this provides an outlet of social interaction with others on the same issues.


        September 16, 2016 at 9:32 am

      • JS: “A lot of them might be socially isolated or lonely, and this provides an outlet of social interaction with others on the same issues.”

        For me, this is pretty true. After a certain age having real friends is hard & inconvenient. Also people who are open to undogmatic open discussion of sacred cows are also rare.

        Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

        September 16, 2016 at 12:12 pm

      • @JS

        True in your case. You wouldn’t be able to carry on with your drivel in a face to face setting.


        September 16, 2016 at 2:03 pm

      • “A lot of them might be socially isolated or lonely, and this provides an outlet of social interaction with others on the same issues.”

        True. And the commenters here should go easy on JS. I hear he’s trying to end the isolation of the elderly in Montreal by forming a new group to meet at SWPL cafes to discuss philosophy. He’s not part of the group, only the one who came up with the idea.This trend may catch on across the whole West. The group is People Really Old Learning Existentialism or PROLE, for short!


        September 17, 2016 at 8:15 am

      • And speaking of minion, I remember watching the 80s transformers cartoons, and it was a favorite word among the Decepticons.

        Gone are the good old days, when political correctness wasn’t part our culture.


        September 17, 2016 at 2:12 pm

      • i thought you were going to stop commenting.

        —jorge videla

        Trumpocalypse Now

        September 17, 2016 at 10:16 pm

      • ‘After a certain age having real friends is hard & inconvenient.’

        Why is it inconvenient?


        September 17, 2016 at 11:10 pm

  18. It’s almost like the gubbmint and dat stock market thingy are like best buddies and don’t want Trump to dun win dem votes and sheet. Weird…


    September 15, 2016 at 10:21 pm

  19. Interesting you should say this. Niall Ferguson insists that the biggest factor in whether a government gets reelected is how the economy is doing. So who has the most to lose? Is Hillary playing the role of the incumbent, for whom a crash will validate the outsider candidate? Or will such a situation redound to Trump’s discredit, because he’s been stuck with the “disaster” label?

    I think the crash in 2008 finally tipped the election to Obama – thus the conspiracy theories that Soros orchestrated it.

    Gilbert Ratchet

    September 15, 2016 at 10:26 pm

  20. OT: HBD at FT

    The genetic advantage of the (other) 1 percenters


    September 16, 2016 at 1:01 am

  21. The latest Fox poll changes the Otis Index to Hil +2.4, cutting her margin down half a point.

    Keep in mind that this comes after Hil’s worst week on the campaign yet. I don’t know how much the deplorables comment hurt her, but the collapse at the 9-11 memorial was brutal. She should get hit with some brutal wikileaks stuff a little down the road.

    It is possible Hil could have further to sink, but it is just as possible that she could be due for a bounce back. It is also just as possible that the race will now stabilize at the Hil +2.4.

    Remember that Obama was only +0.7 over Romney on election day, and he ended up winning by ~4.

    This is a strange race with wildly diverging polls and is hard to call.

    Otis the Sweaty

    September 16, 2016 at 1:09 am

  22. As someone with several years’ salary in a cash savings account earning negligibile interest, I say bring on the crash! Bring on higher interest rates so that regular people saving money can earn interest and protect themselves from government-sponsored inflation. You shouldn’t have to put your life’s savings at risk just to preserve the value of what you’ve saved. And for those of us who are not legally allowed to invest — I’m an American who works for a financial firm overseas; I’m not allowed to open a trading account with anyone except my employer, but my employer does not allow Americans to open accounts because of the regulations the IRS would impose — the stock market bubble has been a disaster.

    It is sickening that governments and central banks have been allowed to debase their currencies and extract wealth from the very people who keep their economies going and hardly anyone even protests. I say bring back sound money (gold, silver, oil, land; I don’t care what it is backed with) and you will see the middle class finally living well and being happy. Don’t politicians want votes? You would think this woud be a slam dunk for them.


    September 16, 2016 at 1:42 am

    • Mate, you can lose your job in a crash, are you sure you realy whant it?

      You gotta do something with all that cash. Look, this is survival of the fittest here. This is pure Darwin. If you don’t take care of yourself you will lose this battle – crash or no crash. You got to have kids and make money to win. Do it by all means necessary. Imagine that you are some pigmay in the jungle. The animals and Bantus will eat you up or you’ll just starve unless you bring home the meat and the bananas. Well this is what you are on a global scale: a tiny creature, a white pigmay, who should be trying to make it. Incidently, Japan isn’t the right cointry for your purposes. Their population is decreasing and they have a lot of automatons and quasi-robots, but you need to set yourself apart from them to make it. What you need is 4-5 kids preferably home schooled and an income to be able to support this lifestyle. Your winning ticket us in the US, not in Japan or Iraq.


      September 16, 2016 at 10:12 am

      • The 1% have enough diversified assets that they’ll be resilient in any case. Because the miracle of compounding interest applies to them as well to us, we’ll never catch up saving our way there.

        Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

        September 16, 2016 at 12:14 pm

  23. We want the crash before the election, like in 2008, so that it helps the party not in the White House.


    September 16, 2016 at 11:03 am

  24. The market will crash when the Federal Reserve Bank lets it. Keyboarding money into existence is not hard work and nowadays, talking the market up or down seems to be the easiest path for economists. Economics is not science.


    September 16, 2016 at 2:07 pm

  25. Step 1: Trump takes the lead in a few polls.
    Step 2: Stocks drop because people fear Trump.
    Step 3: Support for Obama goes down with the market
    Step 4: Trump support increases due to the falling market.
    Step 5: that moves more people into the Trump camp because stocks are falling.
    Step 6: and it continues.


    September 16, 2016 at 2:16 pm

  26. “Even though Hillary is in decline, she’s still using her final years to scrape and claw for even MORE power and wealth. Such an inspiration!”

    That’s a tweet from “Hillary PR Team” @OnMessageForHer. I discovered them a couple of weeks ago. They’re very funny. (My comment isn’t off topic since the purpose of Lion’s blog is entertainment.)

    Mark Caplan

    September 16, 2016 at 3:58 pm

    • “Hillary PR Team” @OnMessageForHer” is the same person who does “Conservative Pundit @DemsRRealRacist”. Great parodies.


      September 17, 2016 at 8:47 am

      • Haha! Yeah its a good laugh. Its so funny because her real real pr team releases tweets like that from time to time as scott adams pointed out! I think there was even a chain of tweets where she kept talking to herself about sth. And who can ever forget the infamous “lets remember the wishes of black lives matter” after the police massacre. Haha. Macabre stuff. I suggest people follow hillary to see the in jokes. I sometimes think the parody account and her one are the same guy!!

        The Philosopher

        September 17, 2016 at 12:41 pm

  27. The Otis Index has it Hilary +1.5 for the week.

    There is a very good chance that this is Trump’s high water mark. But like I said, we might be better off if Crooked Hil squeaks by and finishes off the process Obama started of destroying the Democratic party.

    Otis the Sweaty

    September 17, 2016 at 7:47 am

    • This isn’t Trump’s high water mark.

      His poll numbers have changed thanks to a comprehensively improved messaging strategy, instead of a one time stunt or media event. One week sensations are gone within a week and often not be repeatable. But a strategic turnaround is sustainable for the full campaign.

      The Otis Index is also, sadly, ignoring the state-by-state situation where the outlook looks even better for Trump:

      Lean Trump


      North Carolina








      New Hampshire


      Lean Clinton




      Compared to our rankings from last week, this current state by state breakdown is even more positive for Trump. Two states, Colorado and New Hampshire, have been moved from lean Clinton to tied. Florida is now lean Trump, while all of the lean Trump states remain in the Trump camp.

      The solidification of Ohio for Trump holds important implications for his chances of taking Pennsylvania. In presidential elections Ohio has normally been 3 to 5 points more Republican than Pennsylvania. If this past trend holds true this year – which we suspect it will because the voting demographics of both states have remained stable over the years – then to win Pennsylvania Trump must take Ohio by at least 3 points.

      Recent polls suggest Trump is already ahead in Ohio by at least 3. If he can expand this lead to 5 points or more on election day he should be expected to also win Pennsylvania.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      September 17, 2016 at 12:17 pm

      • Virginia isn’t tied, Tudge.


        September 18, 2016 at 7:42 am

      • The Otis Index deliberately ignores state polls as they are irrelevant. Whoever wins the popular vote wins the general, unless the race is razor thin.

        Otis the Sweaty

        September 18, 2016 at 8:07 am

      • Virginia isn’t tied, Tudge.

        Statistically it is. The last three polls have all been Trump behind by 2 to 3 points.

        The Otis Index deliberately ignores state polls as they are irrelevant.

        Tell that to former president Al Gore.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 18, 2016 at 10:19 am

  28. IHTG

    September 17, 2016 at 2:27 pm

  29. It turns out Milo is a Romanite Jew from Greece.

    No wonder the altright makes death threats against him all the time on twitter:

    The Undiscovered Jew

    September 17, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    • Between 4chan sexual deviants and the homosexuals Milo and Donovan assuming leadership positions within the altright, Spencer is increasingly turning his movement into a bad imitation, not of the Nazis, but of the SA of Ernst Röhm.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      September 17, 2016 at 4:10 pm

    • And yet Gothamette wants all of us to consider these clowns – who are just itching to put poor Milo in a gas chamber – a serious political force.

      What naiveté.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      September 17, 2016 at 4:30 pm

      • But you just said that Milo’s assuming a leadership position within the altright. So it IS a serious force, because Milo’s a major guy. (Just following the logic of your statements, not claiming that it is or isn’t. (It’s okay to be inconsistent; I usually I am. Not that my being inconsistent makes it okay, but I assume it’s sort of okay.))


        September 17, 2016 at 8:07 pm

      • @Garr

        Mate, how did you manage to live till now without knowing what derivatives and futures are? You don’t seem like a guy who lives entirely under a rock? What are you an adjunct professor of?


        September 17, 2016 at 9:35 pm

      • Hi Yakov. Why not have a long chat in person, since we’re next door to each other? I can get you into the 15th St. Harbor on a guess pass (my treat) and we can spot each other on the bench (big problem there — everybody’s plugged into headphones so you can’t ask for a spot, and when they do spot you they give you help before you ask for it and touch the bar anyway, ruining your set, even if you’ve asked them beforehand not to.) People get annoyed at each other online because they can’t see each other’s facial expressions.


        September 18, 2016 at 6:34 am

      • But you just said that Milo’s assuming a leadership position within the altright. So it IS a serious force, because Milo’s a major guy. (Just following the logic of your statements,

        The logic must be contradictory because (((Milo))) defies logic. He is both in the altright but not in the altright. For every ten good reasons why he is a leader of the altright there are ten equally good reasons why he is not.

        He moves in and out of their vicinity, but is never able to truly anchor himself within it because he is a flamboyant, homosexual, race-mixing, Greek Jew.

        The increasingly dominant antisemitic wing of the altright will never accept him a Jew, even a Romanite Jew, as one of their leaders and literally wants (((Milo))) dead, as you can see looking at the responses to the twitter link to Joel Stein’s profile of him.

        One of the commenters says (((Milo))) will be a “Guest of Honor” on the DotR: DotR = a NeoNazism for “Day of the Rope”. And that death threat was tame compared to other twitter death threats made against him.

        If the altright will not accept (((Milo))), I am right to call the altright a joke movement even if (((Milo))) is sort of altright. If he is associated with them now, he won’t be for much longer now that the antisemites are calling the shots in the altright.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 18, 2016 at 10:17 am

      • Gothamette, do you still maintain the antsemitic queers of the altright make up a viable political force?

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 18, 2016 at 10:49 am

    • Or, rather, (((Milo))).

      The Undiscovered Jew

      September 17, 2016 at 4:32 pm

  30. Gee does this mean the media hysteria of Nuclear War if Trump wins is over? Funny, Hillary has always been a chickenhawk and supported Iraq, Libya and wants to invade Syria, threaten Russia and stop China’s Navy in the South China Sea, but Trump will kill us all, Dr. Strangelove.
    This Wall Street Crash seems rather mild compared to a Nuclear Winter, although a Nuclear Winter might get Algore to stop complaining about the heat from Global Warming. I thought the Stock Market Crashed Already? Didn’t Lehman Bros go belly up and it seems most of the Dow Industrial Companies have all changed a few years back?. Now Facebook and Google are valued as high or higher than ExxonMobil. Gee, a couple million worth of servers has a stock paper value about the same or better than Millions of Barrels of Oil and dozens of refineries. Is it 1929? It seems like some people don’t understand the concept of stocks and how they should be valued based on stock value vs assets. Maybe all of you should start looking at transferring your 401(k)s to gold?

    Joshua Sinistar

    September 17, 2016 at 10:10 pm

    • The Exxon comparison to Google is silly Luddite talk. What’s worth more, a fully functional steam engine or the blueprints to a fully functional ready to be built now thorium nuclear plant…

      Faceberg on the other hand…

      Well that’s always been garbage and based on investor hopium from day 1. Seems like investors own it more as a glamor display of status to other investors since at a 70:1 PE they will never be worth the risk/reward ratio. May as well buy treasuries, but that’s not what the popular kids are doing.


      September 18, 2016 at 11:01 am

  31. Stock market hasn’t done anything for 2 years. It will go up. Stay indexed and maintain a cash position to go in with speculative buys, if you know what you are doing, when the hell breaks loose or just keep buying indexes on dips. You horizon should be at least 6-7 years into the future. This is my prole, low IQ and low intelligence wisdom regarding the market.


    September 18, 2016 at 3:20 pm

    • A technical analyst would say that inability to push past resistance is bearish, as is a head and shoulders pattern.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      September 18, 2016 at 4:30 pm

      • Until one day it turns bullish on a dime.

        Mate, I’ve followed all this stuff for years and lost money. I’m doing my own thing now.


        September 18, 2016 at 7:01 pm

  32. […] week, I wrote about the possibility that the market could crash if it looks like Trump is going to win the election, but if that […]

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