Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump has 19% black support, who could have predicted?

The latest USC polling shows Trump winning 20% of the black vote.

The mainstream media is shocked and in disbelief, but not the Lion! Way back in March I wrote:

Blacks love Donald Trump []. No, Trump isn’t going to win even close to a majority of the black vote, but if he wins 15% instead of the 6% that Romney won in 2012, then he doesn’t need to capture a full extra 4% of the white vote.

And even further back in January I noted that karate expert Jimmy McMillan, founder of The Rent is Too Damn High party, supported Donald Trump. “While McMillan may seem like a frivolous sort of person to some, I think it demonstrates Trump’s appeal to blacks which I have already discussed.”

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

September 20, 2016 at 3:36 pm

Posted in Politics

119 Responses

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  1. Black men love Trump, Hispanic men love Trump, we all love Trump.



    September 20, 2016 at 3:52 pm

    • Trump is a unifing force and unity is strength.


      September 20, 2016 at 7:27 pm

  2. I expect them to fall in line when election day rolls around. Obama will go on his grand support-me-via-Hillary tour, pastors will speak up, and the pressure on social media will tighten.

    Naturally Clinton will not do as well with the Black vote as Obama, but she should get around 88% (which is what Kerry did according to the exit survey). For the sake of comparison, in ’96 Clinton got 84%, and in ’00 Gore got 90%.


    September 20, 2016 at 3:56 pm

    • Obama campaigning for Hillary more than Hillary does isn’t necessarily an asset. Just rubs in the fact she’s too sick to do much.

      Giovanni Dannato

      September 20, 2016 at 5:50 pm

    • Trump has little to no GOTV effort in general and he certainly doesnt have one for blacks. He will well under perform any poll numbers.

      The Democrats will have a Scare Out the Vote campaign. And Hillary did beat Obama in the Harlem primary.

      Still this might prove to be line 2014 (“my policies are on the ballot”) where Obama was unable to carry several frail white senators across the line. Of course the GOP was fired up that year, whereas now, kinda meh.

      Lion of the Turambar

      September 21, 2016 at 8:54 am

      • He doesn’t need a gotv effort. He has enormous rallies which never seem to end. The enthusiasm for Trump is amazing. I do agree that in order to get a significant part of the black vote he would have to GOTV, which won’t happen. If the black vote is anemic, that will be enough.


        September 21, 2016 at 8:10 pm

      • that would be great if the election was based on who could get 8000 people to an auditorium. It isnt.

        Trump is fooling himself. Which is a thing con men often do.

        Lion of the Turambar

        September 22, 2016 at 12:32 pm

  3. This is actually exhibit A for why this poll is so bad. Blacks absolutely detest Donald Trump. Blacks hate Trump more than Hispanics do.

    For blacks, anti white racism is always first and foremost.

    Otis the Sweaty

    September 20, 2016 at 4:02 pm

    • Exhibit A why a white boy shouldn’t think he knows the inner thinking of blacks. Your mother dating a brother in your youth doesn’t give you some authority on this fine folks.

      K.l. Asher

      September 20, 2016 at 5:53 pm

      • my mother actually did date a black guy in college, although according to her he was the whitest black guy ever

        Otis the Sweaty

        September 21, 2016 at 12:04 pm

      • my mother actually did date a black guy in college, although according to her he was the whitest black guy ever

        Kinda like Obama? Must’ve been a sad day for old Barack when he finally realized he’d have to give up white women in order to have a viable political career… otherwise there’s zero chance he woulda ended up with a black woman.


        September 21, 2016 at 5:39 pm

      • I don’t think so. I think Obama genuinely wanted to be more black.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 21, 2016 at 9:05 pm

      • and the “inner thinking” of these folks ain’t exactly complicated or exotic, despite what they and their patrons seem to think…


        September 21, 2016 at 5:40 pm

      • Lion’s right about this. Obama spent his entire childhood wanting to be more black. He is exhibit A for the notion that there is a natural affinity between people according to genetic similarity, an idea Hamilton proved.


        September 22, 2016 at 10:37 am

      • Lion’s right about this. Obama spent his entire childhood wanting to be more black. He is exhibit A for the notion that there is a natural affinity between people according to genetic similarity, an idea Hamilton proved.

        Yes, from afar. But he still lived in cushy Hyde Park instead of Cabrini Green. And never actually dated a black woman before Michelle. And, as Steve Sailer points out, there’s still very little evidence that he spends much time with blacks who aren’t Ivy educated. Nor did he associate with other black politicians (like Al Sharpton or the Congressional Black Caucus) before becoming President.

        Blacks were a power base for him, but it’s pretty clear that he doesn’t really feel comfortable around average blacks on a daily basis. If he wanted to “go native” he could’ve dated 30 black women before Michelle – getting black women in bed is a fairly easy task.


        September 22, 2016 at 6:00 pm

    • Hispanics vote like Jews and think like Guidos. It’s all about self preservation and jobs, where as blacks really vote for more gubmint gimme dat.


      September 20, 2016 at 6:43 pm

  4. I’m guessing that 70% of black Trump supporters are men.


    September 20, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    • No, Black women dig aggressive White guys with Authoritay. I know this, K.I. Asher, because I had sex with one a few times about twenty-five years ago. She was a crackhead who told me I looked like a “Saviour”.


      September 20, 2016 at 6:56 pm

      • K.I.?


        September 21, 2016 at 9:05 am

      • If you look a couple of comments up, Gothamette, you’ll see that K.I. Asher doubts our credentials on this subject. So I thought I ought to establish mine.


        September 21, 2016 at 7:01 pm

      • I don’t think that carnal knowledge of a black crackhead can give you a deep inside into black women’s mind. Were you on crack too? Because you’ve got to be on crack to think so.


        September 21, 2016 at 8:53 pm

      • Oh right, I didn’t see that my bad sorry.


        September 21, 2016 at 9:46 pm

      • Was kidding, Yakov. Referring to Asher’s comment above. Yeesh. Duh.


        September 22, 2016 at 9:51 am

      • Garr, my bad I’m low IQ so I’d missed the humor. Funny! Haha haha!


        September 22, 2016 at 10:20 am

  5. That number has got to be an outlier though, just like the LAT/USC poll as a whole is.


    September 20, 2016 at 4:09 pm

    • Exactly. We have all become a bunch of idiots believing what we want to believe.

      Trump will probably get about as much of the nonwhite vote as did Romney.

      Otis the Sweaty

      September 20, 2016 at 6:48 pm

  6. Blacks are not all that interested in the fine points of this or that politician’s policies, that’s a white person’s thing. Blacks respect and vote for the Big Man, the one with charisma. One can clearly see the parallel between blacks and politics and women and boyfriends. Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, etc, with all their cringing, and their trying to be liked by saying all the “right” things, are beta men. Trump”s unapologetic style marks him out as an alpha.

    In the UK after the war many young black men were named “Winston”.


    September 20, 2016 at 4:36 pm

  7. What the hell do you have to lose! – Donald Trump, 08/19/16, to black voters.

    E. Rekshun

    September 20, 2016 at 5:11 pm

  8. Every brother who had a scarface poster hanging in their rooms in the 80’s is voting for Trump. Well the ones without felony records and active registration cards.

    K.l. Asher

    September 20, 2016 at 5:49 pm

    • Yes, I routinely commiserate in a fraternal manner with my Black male students (those who aren’t too stoned to speak) about the insanities of feminism. If they knew about “voting” and who these people “Trump” and “Hillary” are they wouldn’t think twice about who to hang with.


      September 20, 2016 at 7:03 pm

      • This is a very funny twitter site(?). It aggregates absurd statements from academic paper abstracts. Most are from the field of women’s studies. You likely already know about it


        September 21, 2016 at 9:30 am

      • You teach blacks? How many ways can you spell Antoine?


        September 21, 2016 at 4:35 pm

      • Yes, that’s sort of funny, Curle (no, hadn’t heard of it) — only “sort of” to me because the ladies at the stupid places I’m at are more focused on concrete “social justice” stuff so I don’t hear that kind of talk. The girls at my “liberal arts college” in the 80s used to talk that way, though. They weren’t very sweet. By the way, I still remember your wise advice about how not to be intimidated by packs of blank-faced 18-year-old non-nerdy Blacks walking four abreast, at least three deep, on the sidewalks. Thanks for that, too. What should I do about the vulgar music emanating from the headphones of lower-class-persons on public transport-vehicles? At times the prospect of suicide-by-NAM does actually appeal to me. It seems like a noble way to go.
        I never remember my students’ first names, Gothamette, because I call everyone “Ms.” and “Mr.” followed by their last names. I hate the way college teachers usually call their students by their first names but expect to be called by some title followed by a last name. I hate the way MDs and rabbis do this too. And the way clinical psychologists put “,PhD” after their names on the covers of their stupid self-help books. I hate lots of other stuff too!


        September 21, 2016 at 7:26 pm

      • Aren’t you a philosophy guy? You teach stoned blacks philosophy? Where?


        September 21, 2016 at 8:55 pm

      • ‘ I hate lots of other stuff too!’

        Garr, this is strange. Seems like you are looking for problems. What do I hate? Can’t think of anything. Is is this because of my low IQ and intelligence? Maybe, but them maybe not. Lion hates Guidos and cows. JS hated Guidos and proles, but Guidos are proles? JS doesn’t make sense as usual. What does Maryk hate? I dunno. I hate nothing that I can think of right away. Why hate? Is it rational to hate, say, cows? I don’t think so.

        Today a black guy stops me on the street, grabs my hand, starts shaking it excitedly and goes:

        – Where do I know you from? I know you from somewhere!
        – I dunno man, let’s think about it. Where could it be from?
        – 52nd street? Yeah!
        – Oh yeah! 52nd street.
        See, we worked there together o that job site and he remembered me. Nice to be remembered and greeted like this. If you have hatred in your heart, nobody gonna great you like this, because they know that your heart is black even if your skin is white. Anyway, good heart is the most important thing for a man and even more so for a woman. A good heart doesn’t hate.


        September 21, 2016 at 9:50 pm

      • Yakov, baby, I bet I shake more Black dudes’ hands onna street onna daily den you does. Cuz I got hun’eds of ex-students an’ shit. Can’t tell you my subjec’ ‘cuz Nazis be huntin’ my ass.
        Stop frontin’ ’bout you bein’ all low-IQ an’ shit. Cuz you mad smart an’ we all knows dat.


        September 22, 2016 at 9:57 am

  9. Trump is the silverback male candidate period and that applies across race lines. Black women with American average IQ get to go to free college and get cushy affirmative action gov/contractor jobs, black men get to go to prison and/or pay child support unless they work for WMATA. I’m sure some of them have started to notice by now. Been regarding this with cautious skepticism so far since it would be a historic change. But if Trump is the first to break into the black bloc since the civil rights era, the election is going to be ultimate overkill.

    Giovanni Dannato

    September 20, 2016 at 5:49 pm

    • Yup. (Dunno what WMATA is, though.) Appreciated your response on practical rationality — yes, new environments might make gut instincts less reliable, but I don’t know why conscious reasoning would do any better then, given that it’s still working through the same inputs. You’re Scott Adams, right? Okay, don’t answer, but we know you are. I didn’t get one of your cartoons, but now I can’t remember the line … something about “paying forward”? … forget it. Keep up the good work.


      September 20, 2016 at 7:08 pm

      • DC Metro service = WMATA


        September 21, 2016 at 9:40 am

      • the public transportation system in the dc area. it’s almost exclusively staffed by blacks. it has a lot of operational problems

      • WMATA is the official name of the DC transit system organization. Which almost totally rules out that he is Scott Adams (who most likely doesn’t know that.)


        September 21, 2016 at 11:30 am

      • Washington metro area transit authority?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 21, 2016 at 4:47 pm

      • Me, Scott Adams? Yeah right. I have my own small blog as you will see if you click on my name.
        I spent 4 years living in the DC metro area without a car so the woes of the metro were all too familiar to me.
        I was saying that gut judgments can be honed by practice. We use rational thought to choose what we practice. It’s good for the preparation phase. That master persuader and hypnotist stuff is Adams’ department.

        Giovanni Dannato

        September 21, 2016 at 9:54 pm

  10. I just re-read this article. Classic.

    But on the H*** S***a blog and elsewhere, the conversation is already flashing forward to what might happen if genetically encoded racial differences in socially desirable — or undesirable — traits are identified


    September 20, 2016 at 5:51 pm

    • It won a Pullitzer Prize.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      September 20, 2016 at 6:06 pm

      • Two of your biggest claims to fame: this Pulitzer-winning article and your relationship with Chateau Heartiste, who is obviously a huge fanboy of yours:


        September 20, 2016 at 10:30 pm

      • Actually, I think Heartiste likes Lion for old times’ sake but can’t advertise it because he’s picked up an antisemitic audience. He occasionally lets slip he’s faking it, but it’s much more rare nowadays, as he knows the alt-right is his main audience.


        September 21, 2016 at 9:10 pm

    • “Certain superficial traits like skin pigmentation have long been presumed to be genetic.”

      Oh, my.

      Two in the Bush

      September 20, 2016 at 10:18 pm

      • According to the general theory of superficial traits as articulated by professor XXX in XXX after XXXX discovery following XXX series of experiments. Sure wish I could fill in the Xs.


        September 21, 2016 at 9:20 am

  11. Virtually every other poll shows his support among blacks to be next to, or in some cases literally, 0%. His support among hispanics is significantly higher, despite the fact that he has gone out of his way to slight hispanics, both on an individual level and as a group, while barely discussing blacks in america at all. I found this rather surprising, having agreed with your prediction at the time that many blacks would gravitate towards Trump’s alpha — some might even suggest ‘gangsta’ — charisma. It’s interesting that this has proven not to be the case, and it goes to show just how loyal blacks are to the democrats (if not “the left” per se — consider their lack of enthusiasm for sanders) on the one hand, and how deeply sensitive they are towards people perceived/labelled as racist, even if the focus of that particular person’s supposed racism isn’t directed at blacks. Mostly the former though; I think it’s likely that blacks are the most loyal, unmalleable voting blocks out there.


    September 20, 2016 at 7:03 pm

  12. Sample size of 1, my boss is a black woman who is legitimately smart (not an affirmative action case) and she detests Trump.

    But the 19% figure may still be accurate; she’s probably not the type who’d be won over by his persona.

    Jokah Macpherson

    September 20, 2016 at 9:07 pm

    • I’ve run into Black women with whom I can converse from time to time, but have never EVER met a “professional” boss-type Black woman who wasn’t a role-playing (in a bad way, because a boring ugly role, not in a good way like Catholics and Hassidim and those nerds in the woods whose picture Lion posted in the last thread) alien body-snatcher. I’m astonished that you have a “legitimately smart” Black female boss. What sort of work do you do? (I was just pondering whether my assertion would still be true if the “Black” were removed, but I can think of two sort of sweet, helpful White professional women I’ve met in my fifty difficult years of life as a finite fleshly organism.)


      September 21, 2016 at 5:39 am

      • Financial audit. She isn’t “150 IQ goes home every night to read Gene Expression” smart but she passed the bar exam on her first try and has a reputation of being one of the smarter, harder-working managers where I work. I know what you mean about the role-playing types too; I deal with plenty of them as well both at my employer and at audit clients.

        Not surprisingly, given her circumstances, she’s reached her 40’s having never married and with no kids.

        Jokah Macpherson

        September 21, 2016 at 6:26 pm

    • A story was going around the office that one of our black secretaries (who is pretty cool) got berated by one of the super leftie white women in the office for saying she’d vote for Trump.


      September 21, 2016 at 9:14 am

    • Maybe she’s a closet Trump supporter and pretends to hate Trump to save face. It is the rational thing to do in certain settings where vocally supporting Trump could lead to negative consequences.


      September 21, 2016 at 3:07 pm

      • My team is all Republicans except her so she has nothing to lose. In fact, it is actually the other way around (I play down my fanatical Trump support at work b/c life is not good when the boss hates you – she actually likes me a lot but you know how politics can make people emotional).

        Jokah Macpherson

        September 21, 2016 at 6:29 pm

    • “legitimately smart”

      So she can speak a full sentence and count to 10. Gifted…


      September 21, 2016 at 4:23 pm

  13. Ian Smith earned the respect of many black Rhodesians with his force of personality.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    September 20, 2016 at 10:54 pm

    • Yes, I think that Trump could raise his level of Black support to 25% by calling for the use of helicopter gunships against the Charlotte mob. They are merely childish people, people who often behave disruptively, and at such times the grownups must respond firmly yet temperately, which obviously, in these circumstances, entails the use of helicopter gunships.


      September 21, 2016 at 12:31 pm

      • Not sure it would help trump with the blacks, but let’s try it anyway, just for the lulz


        September 21, 2016 at 7:23 pm

      • Yes, I think that Trump could raise his level of Black support to 25% by calling for the use of helicopter gunships against the Charlotte mob.

        That could be much more effective than you think.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        September 22, 2016 at 9:13 pm

  14. I wonder how many black people all these posters saying ‘Trump is the Big Man, all the blacks will vote for him’ actually know. The guy’s had a bad reputation with black people for a while, and are the one group he actually seems to dislike if you look back before his presidential run–Central Park Jogger, the famous yarmulke quote, birtherism, etc.

    Work on improving his share of the Jewish vote–most of you might actually be able to do something about that one. The Forward’s really scraping the bottom of the barrel with this one…

    An unnamed source says the guy said something years ago?

    Hell, even I can’t get exercised about Donald Trump Jr’s gas chamber comment–it’s insensitive, but hardly antisemitic. Now retweeting Kevin MacDonald…


    September 20, 2016 at 11:41 pm

  15. @Lion – do you think Donald Trump should denounce the Terence Crutcher shooting? Like a Sister Souljah for the Republicans?


    September 21, 2016 at 12:01 am

    • no, Sista Soulja stuff doesn’t work for the right. It worked for Clinton because the Dems really are an anti white party and they needed to win over clueless middle of the road whites. In contrast, there are no non-white swing voters so there is no need to pander to them

      Otis the Sweaty

      September 21, 2016 at 6:39 am

      • ***no, Sista Soulja stuff doesn’t work for the right.***

        I think it can to a degree – mainly by winning over more female support. John Key in NZ has done this very effectively (tbf, he’s quite centrist anyway).


        September 21, 2016 at 6:42 pm

  16. Clicking through to the actual poll, I see 13.9% black support for Trump:

    Still better than Romney, but where is the 19%?

    David Pinsen

    September 21, 2016 at 1:31 am

    • Very few blacks will come out to vote for Trump. But their voter turnout for Hillary might be depressed. That would do as much damage if not more to her candidacy.

      Has anybody been following the revelations about Paul combetta on Twitter? They are devastating. The Washington Post has picked up on it.


      September 21, 2016 at 10:56 am

    • I follow most polls and the LAT/Dornsife poll is unreliable to say the least. A few weeks ago Trump’s black support jumped from 4% to 19%, back to 4%, back up to 19% and now at 13.9.


      September 21, 2016 at 12:07 pm

      • chavez 2016!

        Trumpocalypse Now

        September 21, 2016 at 5:44 pm

      • norway has lots of oil.

        it’s the richest “real” country in the world. $150k per citizen in its swf.

        yet another failure of socialism?

        venezuela with socialism or with chicago boys capitalism…

        it’d still be in the toilet today…


        because it produces nothing except oil, and the price of oil has an “attractor”.

        and with shale oil, deflation, the electric car…

        that “attractor” is the lowest marginal cost…ca $10/bbl.

        Trumpocalypse Now

        September 21, 2016 at 5:51 pm

      • wikipedia has it as 167k USD per citizen…

        and what’s norway’s public debt?

        39.3% of gdp.

        it’s funny and sad how so many americans are still confusing HBD and economics.

        the problem with venezuela is NOT “socialism”.

        what’s right with norway is NOT “socialism”.

        get it?

        Trumpocalypse Now

        September 21, 2016 at 5:59 pm

      • You think you know the theory and you don’t know what real socialism is, I do because I lived under it. Norway isn’t a socialist country, it’s a capitalist country with a large welfare state, as are the other Scandinavian countries. A socialist country couldn’t have Telenor, or Aker ASA, or Hegel. I don’t disagree with your point on HBD and by the way I support Trump too.


        September 23, 2016 at 12:24 pm

      • uhhh…


        or touch-y?



        1. i’m pretty sure the means of production in venezuela is still controlled by a tiny minority of un-mixed europeans. as lloyd bentsen might’ve said, “i knew cuba. cuba was a friend of mine. venezuela, you’re no cuba.”

        2. in the US, scandinavia counts as socialist. “soccer is a socialist sport, because you can’t use your hands.” just take denmark. tax revenues = 50% of gdp. 25% work for the government. only in your dreams is venezuela as “socialist” as denmark.

        Trumpocalypse Now

        September 23, 2016 at 7:35 pm

      • What you write (and not only in this thread) doesn’t even make grammatical sense. And I don’t come here to win or lose, only to learn.


        September 24, 2016 at 11:18 am

      • an immigrants tells me i’m incompetent at his second language.


        for everything else there’s mastercard.


        September 24, 2016 at 6:51 pm

    • Reweighted to match their proportion in the country.
      What would be helpful would be a confidence interval for blacks (i.e., +\- 5%).

      Half Canadian

      September 21, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    • Even if a Republican candidate had the potential to be popular among blacks it would be mooted by the fact that all the local politicians and machines would be against them.


      September 21, 2016 at 8:54 pm

  17. I think the Democrats overestimate the loyalty of their voters. Even if they won’t vote GOP, they can still stay home. The black vote should only be steady in places without voter ID. In black voting patterns, almost all of their votes are by ten percent who get rides to different districts. Did you ever believe they all look the same? On election day, you’ll think so if you see pictures of the same voters in every district.
    The Hispanic vote is what they always look forward to, and when Mexicans let them down, they just don’t know why. Its simple, they only vote in Mexican elections. Telling them they have to vote in El Norte just doesn’t register them even if they ask them in Spanish. They’re Mexicans, they just came for the free government cheese.
    The 24/7 gay by Leisure Trip Barry might get their vote. But all those bombs going off and stabby Somali refugees might make them stay in on November 8th too. This whole Tranny in the bathroom is mystifying. Who the fuck are they appealing to here? How many Tranny’s have a problem with bathrooms? Is this a real issue or are they just trying to reduce their token victim group down to one person? Eventually I suppose the whole Democratic Party will be doing everything for one single wall-eyed hunch-backed dyslexic multiracial amorphous androgynic mutant who believes its a talking fish living on land. They’ll go there. Its just a matter of time.

    Joshua Sinistar

    September 21, 2016 at 4:05 am

    • They’re Mexicans, they just came for the free government cheese.

      Even if you cut off all assistance, they’d still show up. Remember, the men don’t get much in the way of anything other than free emergency room visits, but working at minimum wage and living 10 to a house is the easiest way to send money back home to relatives.

      David Alexander

      September 21, 2016 at 11:16 am

      • Whoa, blast from the past! You still around dude? How’ve you been doing?


        September 21, 2016 at 9:12 pm

      • Eh, could be better, but that’s a long story for another time. I hope all is well with you though.

        David Alexander

        September 23, 2016 at 1:05 am

  18. Hispanics are displaying African-Americans from their neighborhoods around he US. But SWPLs don’t care when NAMs replace NAMs. But if a black hood gets a whiter even just a tad, that’s racist!


    September 21, 2016 at 6:42 am

  19. *displacing


    September 21, 2016 at 6:42 am

  20. Great news for Trump coming from the swing-state of North Carolina. BLM protestors rioted in Charlotte, NC, last night. They looted a Walmart and several tractor trailers stuck on the highway they shut down. They threw rocks at police officers and vehicles passing below an overpass. They destroyed police cars. Motorists on I-85 were stranded for hours in the mayhem. Also in North Carolina, a public school history teacher was suspended for wiping his feet on a large American flag in class.

    Mark Caplan

    September 21, 2016 at 8:48 am

  21. America has descended into dire straits and is longer irreparable. Much of the blame points to the Democrats/liberals who would further destroy whatever is left.

    Trump is band-aiding the country’s ailments at best, and he genuinely wants to help blacks (as if blacks haven’t been helped by the Democrats). The only difference is that liberals do not care about investing in their neighborhoods. We all know blacks are a lost cause time and time again.

    The problem with Trump is that he isn’t even a candidate for the right leaning types, SOLELY, because he wants to help blacks.


    September 21, 2016 at 8:57 am

    • * reparable


      September 21, 2016 at 6:00 pm

    • Are you actually doing anything to reverse the demographic decline, or are you just bitching and moaning on the internet?
      I get the strong feeling you fall into the second camp.


      October 18, 2016 at 12:00 am

      • I’m waiting for it to fall and then swoop in like a vulture.


        October 18, 2016 at 11:12 am

  22. Trump doesn’t need to set records. If he breaks 10% while depressing turnout that would be devastating for Hillary. And it’s very doable.

    Andrew E.

    September 21, 2016 at 10:12 am

    • Exactly. I think a lot of black men are going to stay home. By the way, not that it matters much, but Don King just endorsed Trump and and used the n-word. This is the best election ever. I’m really getting into it now, and I’m enjoying the way Trump just smashes taboos. I was a little nervous about it before, but now I don’t give a flying f***.


      September 21, 2016 at 5:10 pm

    • One thing that no one has mentioned on this blog is that the Green Party, Jill Stein and Libertarian, Gary Johnson, both who will never win, are very capable of upsetting either Clinton or Trump, by chipping away their constituencies.


      September 21, 2016 at 6:36 pm

      • “One thing that no one has mentioned on this blog is that the Green Party, Jill Stein and Libertarian, Gary Johnson […]”


        Stein almost entirely pulls votes away from Hillary. With Johnson things are more mixed. Libertarians are part of the Republican party coalition, so some of his votes will come at the expense of Trump. But this year the Libertarian candidate is attracting a young following, and younger voters traditionally tend Democratic. These are voters that won’t be showing up for Hillary.


        September 21, 2016 at 11:19 pm

      • The Libertarian effect is always neutral and the Green mostly so. Libertarians are the center and draw from across the spectrum and non-voters and have for decades, plus it’s how they recruit. This has been building up for years.

        The GOPe and DEMe are horrified that the center is coming together no matter what they do.


        September 22, 2016 at 2:49 am

  23. Yougov’s poll today had Hil up by 1, 45-44.

    The highly regarded Otis Index has Trump down 1.9% overall, his deficit is expected, however, to rise to over 2% by the end of the week.

    I believe that independent candidates will get 6% of the vote in this election, so to win the popular vote will only require 47+% of the vote. The Otis Index currently has Hillary at 45.9% and Trump at 44%, meaning they are fighting over a remaining share of ~4% of the vote. The Brexit precedent had the undecideds breaking towards the insurgents over the globalists at a margin of 3-1, if the same were to happen with Trump and Hil, the result would be a tied popular vote with Trump likely winning in the electoral college.

    A strong series of Trump debates and some favorable external events could very well get Trump that margin we need.

    Otis the Sweaty

    September 21, 2016 at 10:17 am

  24. Charlotte erupts w another BLM riot. Great for Trump.


    September 21, 2016 at 10:54 am

  25. no one’s mentioning the charlotte riots from last night? nc just went for trump. blm saying white supremacy killed an unarmed black man.

    the black police chief says the guy was armed with a hand gun, and was shot by a black cop.

    • Just saw a video on Twitter of a pretty middle class looking black guy speaking to someone, I don’t know if it was a reporter or just some somebody pretending to be a reporter and putting stuff up on Twitter.

      His speech patterns were very ebonic, and it’s always kind of difficult to understand what they’re saying. But basically he was advocating to go into white neighborhoods and demonstrate there. He explicitly disavowed violence but he was very much in favor of invading white neighborhoods and demonstrating. I would love to see this. Because I know perfectly well that they wouldn’t be able to be to remain non-violent.

      This would not just push North Carolina and other states into Trump’s camp. it would be very much a racial awakening.

      The demonstrators attacked motorists by throwing objects from an overpass onto a highway. That’s extremely dangerous.


      September 21, 2016 at 5:08 pm

      • Hopefully they will go into the liberal SJW neighborhoods.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        September 21, 2016 at 6:14 pm

      • that might have been the dead guy’s brother. i saw a video of him saying whites caused the black cop to murder his brother

      • I don’t think so. The guy I am referring to was interviewed while driving his car.


        September 22, 2016 at 9:46 pm

      • Hopefully they will go into the liberal SJW neighborhoods.

        That won’t change the fact SJWs’ blaming of badwhites for the whole thing. It will just inflame their hatred of badwhites even more.


        September 22, 2016 at 11:16 pm

  26. As I’ve jokingly noted, some of the stuff that Trump would say about foreign policy, refugees, and even immigration would appeal to somebody like my mother, but there’s always going to be that uneasy sense about him being a racist that would scare her off. He’ll probably have the most appeal of any Republican candidate in half-century or so, but it’s going to be marginal at best. If BLM and police brutality were not issues, I suspect his support would be a bit higher, but it would still again be marginal at best.

    David Alexander

    September 21, 2016 at 11:18 am

  27. Reuters poll today has Trump and Hillary both at 39. This is interesting because polls earlier this week seemed to indicate that Hillary was getting a bit of a bounce now that she is back on the trail. Are todays polls showing a tight race the result of the recent terror attack?

    According to the highly regarded Otis Index, Hillary is leading by an even 2 points. I think we have enough data to show that Crooked Hillary will be leading by 2 going into the debates and that the race has effectively stabilized now. Trump can still win, but only with a strong series of debates and some external events that favor him.

    Otis the Sweaty

    September 21, 2016 at 12:15 pm

    • TNB in Charlotte ain’t gonna hurt him.


      September 21, 2016 at 9:53 pm

  28. Waaaay OT:

    You’ve often mentioned cows killing people, now one such incident has been caught on video.



    September 21, 2016 at 5:00 pm

    • These are Hindus who worship cows instead of eating them. Obviously if you a stress out a cow in unnatural ways anything can happen. Cows want to do their thing and being decorated with flowers and having done puja to isn’t it.


      September 21, 2016 at 11:06 pm

      • People are much more dangerous then cows. Cows are the most useful animals around. A cow would never do what these people have done. Leave the cows alone!


        September 22, 2016 at 7:47 am

  29. trump will “take the pain away”. kurtz is the establishment.

    Trumpocalypse Now

    September 21, 2016 at 5:18 pm

  30. NBC/WSJ just released a poll with crooked Hillary up by 7 points, this gives her a 2.6% lead in the highly regarded Otis Index.

    To be sure, Hillary is going to continue imploding, but even with that and even if Trump has a strong series of debates I can’t see Trump cutting his polling deficit to any less than 1.5 points. That doesn’t mean he’d necessarily lose by that much, but he will have an uphill battle on election day.

    Otis the Sweaty

    September 21, 2016 at 6:34 pm

  31. OT: The Illuminati is propping up the market until after the election.


    September 21, 2016 at 9:49 pm

  32. stop with the otis index thing. just report the polls in their aggregate and not just the biased selection of polls youve cherry picked.

    james n.s.w

    September 22, 2016 at 2:18 am

    • The poll aggregates are bullshit, hence the creation of the Otis Index, which has been praised by political experts and statisticians alike as the most accurate tracker of the state of the 2016 Presidential election.

      Otis the Sweaty

      September 22, 2016 at 8:31 am

  33. Blacks have always liked strong white guys who can get things done who’ll sit down with them and talk turkey.

    Remember George Wallace, once he finally sat down with Blacks to horse-trade they were his biggest fans, because they knew what he promised he could make happen. Trump is doing the same thing, has a credible jobs plan for Black youth, and I expect other clever moves with other groups where Hilary is expecting not to have to do anything. These’re not just votes he gets, these’re votes she’s counting on she loses.

    One dumb move–he should have refused to debate without Libertarian Gary Johnson and blamed totalitarian Hilary for closing the debates. He has no advantage in debating her anyway, and it’s smart to be noble when you have nothing to lose and make your opponent look like an surly ass.


    September 22, 2016 at 3:00 am

    • There was absolutely no out for the debates that would not have badly damaged Trump. And Trump does not want a second person up there criticizing him along with Hillary. The deck is stacked enough.

      The debates will be rigged against our side until Alt-right becomes the media. That’s just the way it is.

      Trump will have to know the big facts for both sides, remain big picture, stay on offense and not let Hillary drag him into the weeds on side-issues.

      Andrew E.

      September 22, 2016 at 1:08 pm

  34. lol that would have been crazy he’d of looked like he was ducking the debates. the 15% rule applies to presidential debates and gary johnson was under it.

    james n.s.w

    September 22, 2016 at 1:04 pm

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