Lion of the Blogosphere

Day before the election

with 59 comments

I was just watching CNN, and we desperately need for Trump to win this in order to wipe the smugness off the faces of the mainstream media.

* * *

I am very disappointed that Comey turned up nothing from Weiner’s computer, at least not publicly.

* * *

The RCP polling average shows only +2.2 for Clinton. In the Brexit vote, the actual voting was 6 points different than the polls before the election, so if that holds true here to the benefit of Trump, Trump could actually win by a decisive margin.

If you ignore the liberal anti-Trump spin of this Atlantic article on voter demographics, there’s some good information there to help think about how Trump wins tomorrow and why the polls are wrong.

1. The polls are based on expected turnout which is based on past turnout patterns. This doesn’t account for the huge enthusiasm that prole whites have for Donald Trump. For example, if you drive around Staten Island, the most prole borough of New York City, you see Trump signs everywhere but not a Hillary sign in sight anywhere. Because Trump will attract people to vote who have often not voted in past elections, expect to see a larger than expected prole-white turnout, with that group leaning more heavily to Trump in exit polls than was predicted by pre-election polls (because the prole whites who say they aren’t voting for Trump will turnout at the same low rate that they have in previous elections).

2. The “shy Trump supporters” are mostly found among white “Republican-leaning” college graduates. These voters will secretly vote for Trump but not say so to pollsters because they don’t want to appear “racist” or like some stupid prole. Because they will also be shy when talking to exit pollsters, the exit polls will show a lower support for Trump among college graduates than actually happened.

I think that some of the unusually high support for the Libertarian Party candidate comes from shy Trump supporters. When has a libertarian ever gotten 4.9% of the vote? If Johnson actually comes in with a more likely 2% of the vote and Trump wins, we will know what happened to the people who supported him in pre-election polling.

* * *

In 2012, the actual results moved in the Democratic direction from pre-election polls, and that was because Romney was the anti-Trump. Romney’s patrician manner depressed the prole-white turnout, his Mormonism depressed the Christian Right turnout, and there were no shy Romney supporters because Romnney was the most perfectly behaved and respectable Republican candidate possible. Furthermore, Obama had huge black turnout, which is not going to happen this time. But boy did Romney win Utah by a huge margin!

* * *

I think that early voting in Florida presages a Trump victory.

1. Higher early turnout is due to energized prole-white Trump supporters.

2. The ratio of Republican to Democrat is 3.2 percentage points more favorable for Republicans this year than in 2012. And probably, some of those Democratic voters are actually prole whites who traditionally vote Democratic if they bother to vote at all, but this year they are voting for Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 7, 2016 at 9:55 am

Posted in Politics

59 Responses

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  1. “The RCP polling average shows only +2.2 for Clinton. In the Brexit vote, the actual voting was 6 points different than the polls before the election, so if that holds true here to the benefit of Trump, Trump could actually win by a decisive margin.”

    On average, the presidential polls have been 2 points off over the years. And this election is unusual, so we’ll see.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

    Hepp

    November 7, 2016 at 10:03 am

  2. What about shy African-American and Hispanic working-class voters? We’ll know by late Tuesday night?

    Luke Lea (@lukelea)

    November 7, 2016 at 10:05 am

    • Shy black and hispanic voters are voting Trump. Because their communities attack any who support Trump.

      destructure

      November 7, 2016 at 11:37 am

  3. My hearsay is that Comey laid his hands off the Clinton investigation fearing backlash. If Clinton wins, he will be another poor sap rotting as the worms turn.

    JS

    November 7, 2016 at 10:09 am

    • Or the whole thing was a big gaslighting event.

      But yes, the worms will turn.

      gothamette

      November 7, 2016 at 10:11 am

      • The investigation served it’s purpose. The polls turned in Trump’s favor after Comey reopened the investigation. And his dismissing the investigation hasn’t changed that. If anything, it’s only fueled more support for Trump as people rage against yet another dismissal and speculate about the murder-suicide of the FBI agent leaking details. This may actually work out even better than if he hadn’t dismissed it because it keeps her scandal on the front page and in everyone’s mind the day before the election.

        destructure

        November 7, 2016 at 11:43 am

      • And the media also mentions the inane behaviors of certain Americans which happens when a society is too wealthy. Some are winding down after the elections, taking a vacation at the Hamptons or some other luxurious getaway.

        JS

        November 7, 2016 at 12:51 pm

      • @destructure,

        The polls were already in Trump’s favor. If he had done this after the election, as Ryan Lizza said, there would have been a huge uproar.

        This was a big ‘nothingburger.’

        gothamette

        November 7, 2016 at 1:58 pm

  4. I’ve already voted – for Trump, of course. I hope he wins, but whether even he can reverse this country’s rapid downward spiral is questionable. He would clearly be step in the right direction, though.

    What will happen if the Witch Queen wins? Well, the Republicans will almost certainly keep the House, so they will be able to block her worst legislative excesses: and the Republicans will very likely have at least 41 votes in the Senate, which will help, too. What else will a Hillary victroy result in? The scandal cauldron will keep on bubbling. A special prosecutor and grand jury are likely. Who knows where that will lead? Also, the Dems will be blamed for all the inept, crooked decisions that this doddering old woman makes. After Watergate and the 1976 election, things looked bad for the GOP, but Jimmy Carter proved so incompetent that the Republicans came roaring back with Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

    I regard politics as primarily a form of entertainment, so the next four years should be good, regardless of who the winner is.

    .

    Black Death

    November 7, 2016 at 10:09 am

    • “What will happen if the Witch Queen wins?”

      I’ll write about this tomorrow evening if the awful event actually happens. I don’t want to spend too much time thinking about it now.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 7, 2016 at 10:10 am

    • The president controls the border (or lack of), foreign policy, supreme court and the tax, intel, justice department and NSA…knowing who controls hilary, why are you even asking this question?

      It would not be Obama Term 3, it would be closer to George Bush Term 3.

      At least 2 more wars.

      The Philosopher

      November 7, 2016 at 10:37 am

    • There’s one thing you’re leaving out Lion.

      There will be a lot of vote rigging and illegal immigrants bused in to vote for Hilary. Trump needed to win by 5 points, to win by 2. There is a rumour, the Brexit vote was actually 60-40 without rigging.

      The more important thing is Hilary has no legitimacy if she wins. The US will have completed its full metamorphosis into America Del Norte, as the plutocrats had planned for so long. Nothing she does will be easy. Even the cucks like Paul ‘Testosterone of a Down Syndrome Lemur’ Ryan will jump on the political opportunity to raise hell. Viva Americano!

      The Philosopher

      November 7, 2016 at 10:43 am

      • Screw Paul Ryan. He will be gone in two years, and by that I mean voted out of office. There will be a wave of nationalists swept into Congress as a result of Trump. The man made it possible to speak freely.

        gothamette

        November 7, 2016 at 10:59 am

    • “Also, the Dems will be blamed for all the inept, crooked decisions that this doddering old woman makes.”

      Will they? After all, the media never blamed Hillary for the actual foreign policy decisions that she made. Her own little foreign policy disaster in Libya was barely mentioned this campaign. If she wins, no matter what goes wrong it will be blamed on Republican obstructionism.

      Mike Street Station

      November 8, 2016 at 6:37 am

  5. dogs that don’t bark – if there was a strong belief in DJT winning, people would be on social media announcing that they’re shorting Mexico ETF $EWW, putting their money where their mouth is.

    Fiddlesticks

    November 7, 2016 at 10:09 am

    • Political markets are immature and screwy though. I bought $250 of Trump to win Ohio at 29 cents per share on Predictit a couple weeks ago. No way it ever should have been that low (now it is at 68 cents for a 100% return on investment if I were to sell now which I won’t). Put the same amount on Trump to win Florida at 20 cents and even today it still only up to 35 cents per share despite even Nate Silver saying Trump’s chances of winning Florida are 52%. And the crazy thing was the cost of Trump winning the entire election was only at 18 cents back then. Why would Trump winning the entire thing only be 2 cents less than him winning Florida? What idiot is buying that instead of the far more likely Florida bet that is basically the same price.

      Political markets make no sense and can’t be relied upon the way you think. Probably because most of the people betting are doing so on emotion (and the markets are so small somebody like Soros could easily manipulate them by opening hundreds of accounts and betting the maximum just to make his favored candidate look “strong”).

      PerezHBD

      November 7, 2016 at 10:32 am

      • Political markets make no sense and can’t be relied upon the way you think. Probably because most of the people betting are doing so on emotion (and the markets are so small

        $EWW trades on NYSE Arca. Not the political market. Not small either, >$200M per day changes hands.

        I do appreciate that you are actually putting your money where your mouth is though.

        Fiddlesticks

        November 7, 2016 at 11:49 am

  6. If the Witch wins. She will win. I predict a narrow Hillary victory in the popular vote, losing the white vote by an even bigger margin than Obama did in 2012.

    Predictions: chaos until a military debacle. I really mean this. I think a Hillary presidency will unleash massive anti-American energy all around the world, to China and Russia’s benefit, and they would be insane not to take advantage of it. And the backbone of America would be tacitly supporting the other side.

    She will be an authority-less figurehead. Trump’s — and Bernie’s — millions of disaffected Americans will still be there.

    Wikileaks will still be leaking.

    Preet Bharara will be investigating.

    Don’t pin any hopes on hacks like Comey. But there might be a Snowden – or two, or three — lurking in the FBI’s guts.

    gothamette

    November 7, 2016 at 10:15 am

    • Chin up!

      We will hold the House and probably the Senate and the economy is heading into a set of headwinds that will probably result in some sort of recession next year that will be on Hillary’s watch.

      You think people are going to want to see her on their tv making her screechy speeches? Her approval ratings will be awful by next summer.

      Lets not forget that the only thing keeping the Democrat party together is this election. After that we will see things coming apart at the seams. The Bernie faction has clearly been jobbed over and there is a lot of dirt that has come out about various underhanded tactics used against them. All of that is being tamped down by their hatred of Trump but it going to bubble up strongly in cabinet selections and who runs the party going forward.

      Hillary is going to have a very bumpy ride.

      Lion of the Turambar

      November 7, 2016 at 12:17 pm

      • “You think people are going to want to see her on their tv making her screechy speeches? Her approval ratings will be awful by next summer. ”

        Of course not. I agree with you. The Democratic party will crack up under her and become Sandernistas. The anti-Israel wing will burst forth….but mostly, the rest of the world will crack apart under her incompetence.

        Already the Philippines and Malaysia are moving towards China. And Russia – what will Putin do? The RAND Corp. says that if Russia were to move into the Baltics, NATO would be outgunned in less than a week. The only reason they don’t is because Putin doesn’t think it’s wise now. He might in a couple of years.

        gothamette

        November 7, 2016 at 2:01 pm

    • Wikileaks better drop everything they got like, right now. It’s not gonna be worth shit after the election. Even if something indicts Hillary, it’d still be a Democrat government.

      Jason Liu

      November 7, 2016 at 2:53 pm

      • No. Nothing they drop now will make a difference. If she is elected, continuing the drip drip will erode her authority. Until all 650K emails are released.

        gothamette

        November 7, 2016 at 6:00 pm

  7. ” But boy did Romney win Utah by a huge margin!”

    How much is Trump projected to win NY state by?

    Lion o' the Turambar

    November 7, 2016 at 10:25 am

    • I predict that Trump will win Staten Island.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 7, 2016 at 10:26 am

      • Of course, any guido area for sure!

        JS

        November 7, 2016 at 12:12 pm

    • How much is Trump projected to win NY state by?

      Do you think Trump has a chance to win Utah?

      Romney LOST Ohio, Florida, Maine 2, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan!

      Do you think Trump has a chance to win any of those or is the fact that Trump is a “New York scumbag” going to lose it for him?

      Rifleman

      November 7, 2016 at 10:53 am

      • Trump is only the nominee because of Northern states who have no intention of voting for him in the General.

        Thats not a good system.

        Lion of the Turambar

        November 7, 2016 at 12:01 pm

      • Trump won in the Deep South, a Republican stronghold.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 7, 2016 at 1:04 pm

      • Trump really needs to win Iowa and the other battleground states or else he’s toast.

        JS

        November 7, 2016 at 12:14 pm

  8. I came across a href=”https://pjmedia.com/diaryofamadvoter/2016/11/06/julian-assange-hero-of-2016/?singlepage=true”>this article</a by Roger Simon over at PJ Media about Jullian Assange,the Clintons, Wikileaks and who really runs this country. It's short and well worth reading, but here's a good part:

    My answer is that Trump would not be permitted to win. Why do I say that? Because he's had every establishment off his side; Trump doesn’t have one establishment, maybe with the exception of the Evangelicals, if you can call them an establishment, but banks, intelligence [agencies], arms companies… big foreign money … are all united behind Hillary Clinton, and the media as well, media owners and even journalists themselves.

    and

    As revealed by the Podesta Emails, it's the Clintons and their foundation that have become the state. L'État, c'est Clintons. We're back to Louis XIV all over again.

    Black Death

    November 7, 2016 at 10:39 am

    • Rich people like the status quo, because they have done very well under the status quo (they are rich, after all), so why would they want change? Trump represents change, HRC represents another 4 years of Obama.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 7, 2016 at 10:43 am

      • Obama hasn’t been a bad president though.

        Hilary is going to be much more like Bush – land wars, deeper monitoring of dissidents, torture brought back, deregulation of Wall Street, an unyielding final push to stamp out white men and enthrone the coalition of the fringe socially, crackdown on internal rogues within agencies, assassinations of foreign leaders and domestic leaders, and a mega slush money fund to entrench other mafioso in political positions. It will make Kinshasa’s government look like 1960s Stockholm.

        Hilary has no attention to detail, is careless, risk mad, violent, deeply corrupt and petty. Obama was none of these things.

        The Philosopher

        November 7, 2016 at 11:25 am

      • Uh what!?

        Obama has no attention to detail and a basic innumeracy. I really dont think he understands much of anything about numbers. He is also petty but I will give him a pass on risk mad and violent.

        Hillary seems to be pretty good on detail work based on her original health care work in the mid ’90’s. She is probably a much better manager than Obama- who had multiple readiness meetings on healthcare.gov but wasnt able to read a project plan and tell it was a disaster.

        Hillary is in it for personal power but has limited interest in trappings. Obama is all about the prestige and ego enhancement but has limited interest in governing beyond broad stroke and opportunities to make speeches.

        Lion of the Turambar

        November 7, 2016 at 12:02 pm

  9. I used to think Assange was a creep, but his interview with John Pilger shows a thoughtful man. He’s been terribly misrepresented by the MSM and I bought their biased view of him. I am totally disaffected by the MSM. Not suspicious, disaffected.

    Steve Sailer is doing great analysis of the election. Sailer at his finest – crunching data.

    gothamette

    November 7, 2016 at 11:01 am

  10. “The “shy Trump supporters” are mostly found among white “Republican-leaning” college graduates. These voters will secretly vote for Trump but not say so to pollsters because they don’t want to appear “racist” or like some stupid prole.”

    You could be openly pro-Romney. It would cause a lot of problems with the more deranged leftists, but you never wanted to be friends with them anyway.

    If you’re openly pro-Trump, the average Democrat will hate your guts and regard you as the enemy. I’ve been honest about my decision to vote for Trump to about eight people, and while they’re close to me, it’s caused a lot of tension with most of them.

    In fact, when I’m around a group of people, I tend to fall into a Charles Murray, Michael Medved charade where I lament how bad both candidates are. All but the most deluded Hillary supporters can relate to that.

    So I do think there is a Shy Trump voter effect. I’m very much one of them. I think that Scott Adams is right when he estimates that about 3% of those polled hide their support for Trump. I’ve heard that the LA Times poll is one where the pollsters have a long term relationship with those polled, so the people answering the questions feel more comfortable and trusting towards the pollsters. That’s likely why Trump tends to be ahead of Hillary in their poll.

    “When has a libertarian ever gotten 4.9% of the vote?”

    Gary Johnson is an absolutely terrible candidate. You felt good writing in Ron Paul for many of the same reasons you feel good about voting for Trump. In contrast, Gary Johnson comes off as an unintelligent goofball whose sole purpose for being in politics is to make sure people can light up weed.

    “Furthermore, Obama had huge black turnout, which is not going to happen this time.”

    Right, black turn out is down, and Trump has twice the black vote as Romney had.

    “I am very disappointed that Comey turned up nothing from Weiner’s computer, at least not publicly.”

    Comey isn’t a leader. He waffles according to who is pressuring him at the moment. He’s definitely not a profile in courage.

    Right now, I think there’s a 60-70% chance Trump will win. He has solid leads in Ohio and a persistent one in Florida. He will likely get Nevada and North Carolina. He needs to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, all of which are within the margin of error. (He could conceivably flip Virginia or Wisconsin, but those places seem much less likely.)

    Sid

    November 7, 2016 at 11:40 am

    • The LAT poll has Trump winning 42% of Hispanics and over 50% of Other Non Whites. It is a garbage poll and should either be ignored or unskewed by Trump -4.7, which would bring the race down to being a dead heat.

      Otis the Sweaty

      November 7, 2016 at 2:04 pm

    • If Gary Johnson spoils it for Trump, we will proceed with pitchforks.

      Jason Liu

      November 7, 2016 at 3:03 pm

    • I know someone who lost over 50 Facebook friends for supporting Trump.

      Jay Fink

      November 7, 2016 at 3:25 pm

      • “The LAT poll has Trump winning 42% of Hispanics and over 50% of Other Non Whites. It is a garbage poll…”

        I agree the poll is extremely overly optimistic, but the point about the Shy Trump vote stands.

        “If Gary Johnson spoils it for Trump, we will proceed with pitchforks.”

        Gary Johnson ran in 2012, so he’s a goofball but is at least somewhat sincere.

        In contrast, Bill Weld is running just to syphon votes from Trump. Romney is supporting Gary Johnson for that reason too. They’re both traitors, as are NeverTrumpers more broadly.

        The libertarians will always be among us, but the NeverTrumpers must be scorned if Hillary wins.

        “I know someone who lost over 50 Facebook friends for supporting Trump.”

        We have to pick our battles. I respect people who have the means to proudly proclaim their beliefs at the heart of the world, but I don’t have those means. If you live in a major city of a blue state, you can be open and honest with a select few trusted friends, but otherwise you need to be circumspect if you want to be employable.

        Sid

        November 7, 2016 at 4:10 pm

  11. If Trump improves on Romney’s share of the white vote but still loses big overall, Lion is going to have to admit that his “prole” analytical model is all wet.

    Marty

    November 7, 2016 at 11:45 am

  12. Otis, what do you make of these arguments? Going beyond the polls.

    http://freetheanimal.com/2016/11/youll-heres-exactly.html

    peterike

    November 7, 2016 at 11:46 am

    • “They rely on “likely” voters, not people who actually for sure vote (more on that at the end of this post).”

      True of conventional polls, absolutely not true of IBD and PPD. And guess what, those polls have Trump up by an average of less than 2%. Due to massive #’s of 3rd party/undecideds, it is *possible* that Trump adds an extra 2% to his margin and I guess 3.5% could sorta count as a landslide, but there is no reason to expect that result to be likely.

      As for non polling models predicting Trump win, I put no stock in them, especially considering that Hillary won the Scholastic poll of American students by a bigger margin than did Obama over Romney.

      Otis the Sweaty

      November 7, 2016 at 5:10 pm

  13. IHTG

    November 7, 2016 at 12:08 pm

  14. “…we desperately need for Trump to win this in order to wipe the smugness off the faces of the mainstream media.”

    There are no doubt better reasons for Trump to win, but that would be the most emotionally satisfying.

    Mike Street Station

    November 7, 2016 at 12:22 pm

  15. Lion,
    I still think she is going to win. It will be close but I’ve been looking at the map for months and I don’t see how he is able to pull this off.

    JerseyGuy

    November 7, 2016 at 12:40 pm

  16. Well, if a lot of the upthread predictions are correct, then I’ll need to re-think things. As it stands, I find a lot of it wildly optimistic (in the worst possible way). A Trump presidency would be a disaster, which is why elites are almost uniformly against him, and ignorant. I wish the previous incarnation of this blog was still up; I remember posters there claiming the polls were wrong and Romney would win. What happened?

    I’m predicting 323 EV for Clinton. I have her taking NV, FL, and even NC (though I’m least confident about the latter). No, a Hillary victory will not presage “massive anti-American energy all around the world.” Instead what you will hear is a collective sigh of relief.

    Vince

    November 7, 2016 at 1:08 pm

    • “Instead what you will hear is a collective sigh of relief.”

      Indeed. And then the elites will get right back to looting the national till and importing the third world, guaranteeing a Blade Runner hellscape for our white descendants. Oh, and the little side projects like hate speech legislation (guaranteed with one more Prog Supreme), codified anti-white laws, rampant Section 8 ruination of white neighborhoods, and never ending wars.

      Whoosh! You’re right! Such a relief!

      peterike

      November 7, 2016 at 1:24 pm

    • Hilary has a number of fundamental issues outside of winning the election:

      1. Her health is deteriorating. She sleeps 12 hours most days and is suspected to have Parkinsons.
      2. She has lost the left. Bernie supporters will not help her. They may even undermine her.
      3. She is polling as the most unfavoured candidate in history, even behind Trump who has endured $1bn in negative ads and a completely unhinged MSM unlike no other candidate in history. She has no legitimacy.
      4. The wikileaks will continue for weeks, if not months as new data arrives.
      5. Criminal investigations may continue of associates and so on.
      6. The economy is a mess and a recession is expected
      7. The Alt Right is starting to win Kulterkampf and the cultural mood is changing rapidly. The MSM can’t control people’s minds anymore.

      I think if they counted the votes legitimately Trump wins. But they won’t. Just like they bernd Bernie. Possibly the country goes into deep unrest if Trump says the election is rigged. Everyone will believe it.

      The Philosopher

      November 7, 2016 at 1:37 pm

    • Qatar will certainly be pleased if she wins.

      Jay Fink

      November 7, 2016 at 3:30 pm

  17. From your lips to God’s ear, Lion.

    Oswald Spengler

    November 7, 2016 at 1:30 pm

  18. “As you know, the Imperium has never been able to take a census of the Fremen. Everyone thinks that there are but few, wandering here and there in the desert. My lord, I suspect an incredible secret has been kept on this planet: that the Fremen exist in vast numbers – vast. And it is they who control Arrakis.”

    destructure

    November 7, 2016 at 2:14 pm

  19. What’s funniest to me is that the liberals shrieking about a “world financial meltdown” if Trump wins simply cannot see how utterly stupid and hysterical they see to the majority of Americans.

    Camlost

    November 7, 2016 at 2:24 pm

  20. Hopefully the pathetic pan*sy Berniebros largely stay home tomorrow:

    Camlost

    November 7, 2016 at 2:44 pm

  21. Hmmm… Crooked Hillary winning by 2 in Ras and by 3 in Bloomberg. Bloomberg is done by Selzer who is super reliable and has had several very pro Trump polls this cycle.

    It is one thing to dismiss rigged polls, but the Ras and Bloomberg polls are definitely not rigged against Trump. If we average them in with PPD and IBD, we get a 0.5% advantage for Crooked Hillary.

    Of course, with an incredible 11% 3rd party/undecided Trump could make up that margin. Also Selzer is not a particularly good national pollster, her/their bread and butter are state races, particularly Iowa, where they are based. As for Ras, they suck so take them with a grain of salt.

    I stand by my prediction of a 1 point Trump popular vote win.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 7, 2016 at 2:46 pm

  22. I just don’t think there are that many Shy Tories. Holding out hope that the media has vastly inflated Clinton’s support in their attempt to gaslight Trump voters. Otherwise it doesn’t look good.

    Jason Liu

    November 7, 2016 at 2:47 pm

  23. Vote Trump!

    Glengarry

    November 7, 2016 at 3:55 pm

  24. A very confusing election to predict for my head, but in my heart I have felt calm and convinced of a Trump win for a long time.

    Glengarry

    November 7, 2016 at 4:12 pm

  25. Right wing populism is the biggest threat to America’s well-being.

    TerryB

    November 7, 2016 at 7:57 pm


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