Day before the election
I was just watching CNN, and we desperately need for Trump to win this in order to wipe the smugness off the faces of the mainstream media.
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I am very disappointed that Comey turned up nothing from Weiner’s computer, at least not publicly.
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The RCP polling average shows only +2.2 for Clinton. In the Brexit vote, the actual voting was 6 points different than the polls before the election, so if that holds true here to the benefit of Trump, Trump could actually win by a decisive margin.
If you ignore the liberal anti-Trump spin of this Atlantic article on voter demographics, there’s some good information there to help think about how Trump wins tomorrow and why the polls are wrong.
1. The polls are based on expected turnout which is based on past turnout patterns. This doesn’t account for the huge enthusiasm that prole whites have for Donald Trump. For example, if you drive around Staten Island, the most prole borough of New York City, you see Trump signs everywhere but not a Hillary sign in sight anywhere. Because Trump will attract people to vote who have often not voted in past elections, expect to see a larger than expected prole-white turnout, with that group leaning more heavily to Trump in exit polls than was predicted by pre-election polls (because the prole whites who say they aren’t voting for Trump will turnout at the same low rate that they have in previous elections).
2. The “shy Trump supporters” are mostly found among white “Republican-leaning” college graduates. These voters will secretly vote for Trump but not say so to pollsters because they don’t want to appear “racist” or like some stupid prole. Because they will also be shy when talking to exit pollsters, the exit polls will show a lower support for Trump among college graduates than actually happened.
I think that some of the unusually high support for the Libertarian Party candidate comes from shy Trump supporters. When has a libertarian ever gotten 4.9% of the vote? If Johnson actually comes in with a more likely 2% of the vote and Trump wins, we will know what happened to the people who supported him in pre-election polling.
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In 2012, the actual results moved in the Democratic direction from pre-election polls, and that was because Romney was the anti-Trump. Romney’s patrician manner depressed the prole-white turnout, his Mormonism depressed the Christian Right turnout, and there were no shy Romney supporters because Romnney was the most perfectly behaved and respectable Republican candidate possible. Furthermore, Obama had huge black turnout, which is not going to happen this time. But boy did Romney win Utah by a huge margin!
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I think that early voting in Florida presages a Trump victory.
1. Higher early turnout is due to energized prole-white Trump supporters.
2. The ratio of Republican to Democrat is 3.2 percentage points more favorable for Republicans this year than in 2012. And probably, some of those Democratic voters are actually prole whites who traditionally vote Democratic if they bother to vote at all, but this year they are voting for Trump.