Lion of the Blogosphere

Trafalgar Pennsylvania Poll, Trump +2

with 25 comments

A poll by the Trafalgar Group has Trump leading in Pennsylvania 48.43% to 46.51%

Interestingly, a second question asks “Which candidate do you think most of your neighbors are voting for?” and Trump leads that question 52.83% to 40.04%. This poll is based on 1300+ “likely general election voters”

Also interesting is that this poll shows Trump getting 28% of the black vote. Is there really a last-minute surge of black support for Trump?

This poll is an automated phone poll. Trump does better on automated polls than on live-interview polls.

The question mark here is that the opt-in rate for the poll is extremely low. If the 3% who completed the poll are different than the 97% who just hung up, it could be a big bias in the poll.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 7, 2016 at 3:26 pm

Posted in Politics

25 Responses

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  1. So does this mean it’s a landline poll? When it turns out blacks voted against Trump 88-12, a lot of people are gonna wonder how they got trolled so badly.

    Tiny Blades

    November 7, 2016 at 3:36 pm

  2. I think, with a 3% opt-in rate, that suggests a lot of bias. I’d be weary about making too much of this.

    Half Canadian

    November 7, 2016 at 3:43 pm

  3. According to 538,Trump is finished. His chances are down to 31.5%! America will show Trump the door tomorrow. He’s a racist and a rapist. Lock him up!

    Lolyer

    November 7, 2016 at 3:51 pm

  4. Smells like bullshit.

    OT: Lion, we may be witnessing the failure and death of the “Sailer Strategy”. The idea that elections could be won by maximizing the white vote with immigration rhetoric was largely predicated on the assumption that Hispanics are disengaged from American life and would not show up to vote in large numbers.

    Well, it looks they are: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/this-time-there-really-is-a-hispanic-voter-surge.html

    So now what? Even if Trump does manage to win Florida (and he might not: https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/795716609977544706) it’s hard to imagine that politicians will ever dare speak of walls and deportation again, now that it’s been PROVEN that they’ll be punished for it. Not unless they can find a path to victory that doesn’t go through Florida…

    IHTG

    November 7, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    • The “Sailer Strategy” failed to anticipate the massive mainstream media mobilization against the candidate using the strategy.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 7, 2016 at 3:57 pm

      • It may be that the only way America’s ever going to get serious immigration restriction is with a Hispanic president doing a Nixon-goes-to-China.

        IHTG

        November 7, 2016 at 3:59 pm

      • “It may be that the only way America’s ever going to get serious immigration restriction is with a Hispanic president doing a Nixon-goes-to-China.”

        Perhaps that future Hispanic president will be the founder of Latinos for Trump, Marco Gutierrez. He’s been critical of the huge numbers of Mexican illegals and has warned of America’s dismal future of “taco trucks on every corner.”

        Lewis Medlock

        November 7, 2016 at 6:10 pm

    • And by the next election Hitlery will have granted amnesty and let millions more in. I’m Canadian, so you might think it is not my business. But it will be bad for Canada to have the US gradually become more and more third world. (We have our own problems: A prime minister with a room temperature IQ who loves Muslims).

      Why can’t the immigrants understand that the reason their countries are shitty is because they have a shitty culture (corrupt, violent, etc). If they insist on clinging to their old culture they will turn any country they go to into a shit hole. The way things are going the whole world will be a shit hole before long.

      Rosenmop

      November 7, 2016 at 4:33 pm

    • The idea that elections could be won by maximizing the white vote with immigration rhetoric was largely predicated on the assumption that Hispanics are disengaged from American life and would not show up to vote in large numbers.

      Well, it looks they are: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/this-time-there-really-is-a-hispanic-voter-surge.html

      Well, White America had to make a stand sooner or later. Better now when we still have an electoral majority than later down the road.

      Better for whites to get polarized and motivated now than 40 years from now when it’s too late.

      Camlost

      November 7, 2016 at 4:48 pm

      • I think the Sailer Strategy last had a chance of working in 2012. It’s probably too late now, although I suppose we’ll know by Tuesday night.

        Mike Street Station

        November 8, 2016 at 6:28 am

    • The Sailer Strategy is idiotic and only believed by white nationalists who won’t concede they need minority votes to win.

      Like, they won’t even discuss ways to get more minority support. Just keep scraping the barrel for the dwindling white vote until all nonwhites magically self-deport, or something.

      Jason Liu

      November 7, 2016 at 5:25 pm

      • It would work if you could form a “Great White North” coalition and capture the Midwestern and New England states, bypassing Florida, Nevada, Colorado, etc. Trump’s success in Iowa and (most likely) Ohio seems like the beginning of this. But I think a Democratic president would have to do something really stupid before you could dislodge most of those states from their grasp. They’re just the default choice for many people up there right now, and they see no reason to switch. I suppose if anybody is likely to fuck something up, it’s Hillary Clinton…

        IHTG

        November 7, 2016 at 6:40 pm

    • There is no Hispanic voter surge.

      1. Evidence for a Latino voter surge is all in FL, where the Latinos are mainly Cubans and PR’s; groups that don’t give a rat’s ass about immigration.

      2. Hispanics are 18% of FL registered voters, and yet only cast 14% of FL early votes. Their election day totals are likely to be dramatically lower still. This is the Latino tsunami we were hearing about?

      3. Despite this “massive Latino surge”, Dems still trail their 2012 EV margin by 130k. This despite the FL early voting period being 1 week longer than it was 4 years ago.

      If Trump ends up losing, it will be because he didn’t win enough cuck whites, no other reason.

      Otis the Sweaty

      November 7, 2016 at 6:32 pm

    • You’re being entirely unfair to Sailer. He never espoused anti-immigration rhetoric as an electoral strategy. Rather, he simply pointed out the ineffectiveness of pandering to Hispanics on immigration as a way of getting Republicans elected. That is a huge and essential difference. In other words, if Repuicans are going to lose anyway, at least turn out the largest white vote possible by emphasising the greatest threat, demographic engulfment. And you do you really believe Sailer was so naive as not to know how the media would react? If so you haven’t been reading him very closely. To sum up, Sailer’s point was simply that Republicans were never going to take back the White House with the Kudlow/Norquist strategy, “we’re better for economic growth!” That remains true even if Trump loses.

      Explainer 21

      November 7, 2016 at 7:30 pm

      • I was clearly talking about how Hispanic voters would react, not the media.

        IHTG

        November 8, 2016 at 1:43 am

  5. “Is there really a last-minute surge of black support for Trump?”

    There seems to be a Latino surge toward Trump as well. If this is true — and I have no way of gauging that — I’m betting the cause is #SpiritCooking. To the extent that they were exposed to it at all, the superstitious, anti-homo and virulently anti-pedo NAMs are freaked out by it. El Diablo!!! Sensible whites always underestimate the sway of emotions among the NAMs, and how differently they respond to things like Spirit Cooking. Whites can easily talk themselves out of it by saying nonsense like, “Oh it’s just art!” The number of NAMs who do that is probably statistically zero. If they heard about it, it had a major impact on them.

    If the MSM gave it the wall-to-wall coverage they would have were it Trump, you’d be looking at Trump getting 50%+ of black and Latino votes.

    peterike

    November 7, 2016 at 4:00 pm

    • I’m skeptical that anybody outside of Twitter heard of the Spirit Cooking thing

      IHTG

      November 7, 2016 at 4:18 pm

      • “I’m skeptical that anybody outside of Twitter heard of the Spirit Cooking thing”

        Agree with that.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 7, 2016 at 4:18 pm

      • But it might have caused a few wavering, old-style White conservative Democrats to stay home. We can only hope.

        Camlost

        November 7, 2016 at 4:24 pm

      • “I’m skeptical that anybody outside of Twitter heard of the Spirit Cooking thing.”

        Agree, but 25% of Twitter users are black. And 17% are Hispanic.

        peterike

        November 7, 2016 at 4:48 pm

  6. A lighter note on the election, from last night in a restaurant in SF. A guy at the next table just started talking to us. He and his wife were visiting from the Baltimore area. About 75, looked and sounded like the old NFL’er Art Donovan from Texas Miller Lite commercials. He said that when he went to early vote, a black grandmother demanded to know whether he was voting Dems. He said he responded, “Do I look like I’m black or a jew?”

    Tiny Blades

    November 7, 2016 at 4:06 pm

  7. Landline only = trash. You can’t even unskew such polls. They are garbage and should be dismissed.

    Trump getting 28% of the black vote? Gimme a break. No chance.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 7, 2016 at 4:47 pm

  8. Here’s an analysis that how Trump winning a landslide. I don’t know who he is.

    ttgy

    November 7, 2016 at 6:20 pm

  9. Iowahawk put it somthing like, “In a poll of the elderly and shut-ins so lonely they are willing to talk to a complete stranger…”

    dbp

    November 7, 2016 at 7:01 pm

  10. Since you mentioned PA:

    gothamette

    November 7, 2016 at 9:17 pm


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