Trafalgar Pennsylvania Poll, Trump +2
A poll by the Trafalgar Group has Trump leading in Pennsylvania 48.43% to 46.51%
Interestingly, a second question asks “Which candidate do you think most of your neighbors are voting for?” and Trump leads that question 52.83% to 40.04%. This poll is based on 1300+ “likely general election voters”
Also interesting is that this poll shows Trump getting 28% of the black vote. Is there really a last-minute surge of black support for Trump?
This poll is an automated phone poll. Trump does better on automated polls than on live-interview polls.
The question mark here is that the opt-in rate for the poll is extremely low. If the 3% who completed the poll are different than the 97% who just hung up, it could be a big bias in the poll.