Lion of the Blogosphere

Exit poll tells

with 39 comments

The mainstream media will have exit poll results before the polls close. They are not supposed to reveal the results to the public, but if the smugness has been wiped off their faces we will know that the exit polls are good for Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 8, 2016 at 12:10 am

Posted in Politics

39 Responses

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  1. So has Drudge gone off the deep end with this alleged video of Hillary “staggering”?

    Magnavox

    November 8, 2016 at 12:14 am

    • It is a bit of a stretch just as Hannity’s “bombshell” interview with the Clinton Fixer. But Drudge has done yeoman’s work; I’d rank him as one of the greatest Jewish Americans in history with Jonas Salk. God bless Trump and God bless America. G’night.

      fakeemail

      November 8, 2016 at 12:42 am

      • He may be the only prominent Jew who is a conservative for reasons other than Israel. I think he says his number one issue is abortion which is just a normal gentile white american thing to say. That’s gotta be worth something.

        Magnavox

        November 8, 2016 at 10:08 am

      • Magnavox, your “[Drudge] may be the only prominent Jew who is a conservative for reasons other than Israel” is so obviously false that I can’t imagine what would motivate you to make such a remark, other than the obvious motivator in such cases.

        Garr

        November 8, 2016 at 10:52 am

    • No.

      Cernovich thinks it’s Parkinson’s. Scott Adams thinks she might have been drunk.

      But it sure didn’t look right. After he breakdown on 9/11, we can’t give her the benefit for the doubt.

      Sid

      November 8, 2016 at 1:16 am

      • The problem is that the breakdown on 9/11 set up the goalposts for any future health incident, and if it’s not as bad as that one it won’t have any effect on public opinion. “Staggering” is a gross exaggeration of what’s seen in the video.

        Richard

        November 8, 2016 at 12:43 pm

    • …alleged video of Hillary “staggering”?

      It’s not an alleged video. It’s an actual video of Hillary allegedly staggering/stumbling.

      Which she was in that “alleged” video. She’s an old, physically unhealthy woman.

      But Democrats could say Roosevelt used crutches and a wheelchair.

      I guess Drudge is being “disablilityphobic” and expressing his “ablebodied privilege” by “attacking” Hillary with this hateful “war on all women” video and headline.

      Drudge = sexism/able bodied privilege = war on all women and people with disabilities = racism against “people who are different/Other = Trump supporter = HITLER = end of the world….

      ….unless we vote for the Broom-riding, warmongering, wall street shill and Americaphobic, globalist prostitute.

      Rifleman

      November 8, 2016 at 2:33 am

      • You’re right about the first part but as to the rest I didn’t see anything to indicate any physical problem in that video. And it looks like Drudge has completely taken it off less than twelve hours after making it the top headline.

        Magnavox

        November 8, 2016 at 10:03 am

    • To all you TruCons, undecideds and wimps who are waiting for your wife’s boyfriend to tell you who to vote for I say this…….

      Rifleman

      November 8, 2016 at 5:31 am

    • My Closing Argument for Trump

      America must decide between failed policies or fresh perspective, a corrupt system or an outsider

      by Laura Ingraham

      ….Let’s start by dismissing the views of the sad cadre of pundits known as the “NeverTrumpers.” These people claim to be conservative..

      Rifleman

      November 8, 2016 at 6:03 am

    • It doesn’t look like a recurrence of whatever her issue was at the 9/11 event, though something was clearly not right.

      Matt Stevens

      November 8, 2016 at 7:31 am

      • She’s a 68 year old woman whose got jelly legs. I wouldn’t read much into it.

        gothamette

        November 8, 2016 at 9:32 am

  2. It’s over. Hillary Clinton is the 45th President of United States. Trump could have won, but he couldn’t stay on message and gets rattled too easily and says stupid crap that’s either untrue or makes no sense (Clinton never gets rattled). And ultimately, America rejected that. It would have been too embarrassing to have Trump as President.

    JoeKnow

    November 8, 2016 at 12:22 am

    • It’s not Trump, it’s demography. Sailer has been analyzing this recently. This is his strong suit. His analysis is devastating.

      gothamette

      November 8, 2016 at 9:33 am

    • Trump has many many many flaws and your criticism is very incisive but it would have taken someone truly extraordinary to thread the needle in the way that’s needed both to win and institute the changes the country needs. And there’s a good chance Trump will win.

      Magnavox

      November 8, 2016 at 10:10 am

    • If Trump loses, his big mistake will have been framing the immigration issue as a referendum on the worthiness of the migrants themselves (“they’re not bringing their best”), which sounds mean and coarse to women and mushheads, as well as loosely using language (“they’re rapists”) that his opposition could use to whip up ethnic resentment against him. When the Immigration Act of 1924 was passed, proponents like William Vaile took pains to avoid turning it into that kind of referendum: “Let me emphasize here that the restrictionists of Congress do not claim that the “Nordic” race, or even the Anglo-Saxon race, is the best race in the world. Let us concede, in all fairness that the Czech is a more sturdy laborer … that the Jew is the best businessman in the world, and that the Italian has … a spiritual exaltation and an artistic creative sense which the Nordic rarely attains.” You can’t allow this to sound like a debate on whether Mexicans are good people or not. There are people who would have voted for Trump’s policies had they not come off to them as mean-spirited or anti-Mexican. Trump was careless enough in his language that such a interpretation wasn’t irrational.

      I wish he had run against immigration focusing more on its economic impact on those who are already Americans, in terms of wage pressure, higher unemployment, and rising housing costs. To break through the current demographic and racial barriers between the parties he really needed to run a class-based campaign, something like Bernie Sanders did, but Trump’s passion seems to have been energized more by the national humiliation the USA suffers by having so many millions of foreigners flaunt our laws in our own front yard. It devolved into an Old America vs. New America election, which is risky as hell because in that demographic race Old America is in fast retreat. To win decisively he needed to unite the one expanding demographic group that no Republican had thought to seek, and that is the Losers of Globalization: white, black, brown. The true enemy was Wall Street and the corporate governing class, not the maids that cleaned their houses.

      Richard

      November 8, 2016 at 1:37 pm

      • Great comment. One nitpick: it’s flout, not flaunt. Otherwise very informative, thanks.

        gothamette

        November 8, 2016 at 2:09 pm

      • PS, Richard, the Vaile quote does demonstrate that people were thinking about race, even then. Just race among various white ethnic groups.

        gothamette

        November 8, 2016 at 2:11 pm

      • Richard very nicely covered what we’re up against, but even though Trump was clumsy, he was always going to be tarred as racist and mean by the opposition a la Romney et al.

        Old and New America indeed, but New is moving leftward: Bernie supporters and immigrants see the welfare state as infinitely expandable. Until that changes, they will just want more allies to carry bigger slices of pie away from the Dark Horn of Plenty.

        bomag

        November 8, 2016 at 3:21 pm

      • Right, Vaile said it in part because he was pushing back against something. There’s actually interesting parallels between the current environment’s White Nationalist rumblings and the early 20th century chatter about Anglo-Saxon supremacy that’s found in the writings of Jack London, Frank Norris and other American novelists born in the generation just before the Ellis Island wave became noticeable (1860-80). The older literary generation (Hawthorne, Melville, Twain) didn’t write such things back when Anglo-Saxons actually did dominate the country. That it suddenly came pouring out from Americans only after the Ellis Island wave of immigration had permanently upended the demographics of American society seems now like a desperate attempt to rhetorically entrench an America that was already gone, but which these writers had taken for granted in their childhood. Ethnographers at the time divided Europeans into several different “races”, so there was a theme of TruWhite going on here, even though American custom had always considered a European, no matter where he came from, to be as white as any other.

        The parallel here is the White Nationalists trying to detach Hispanics and Middle Easterners from the white category, even though American custom (and the census) has generally always considered them to be white. Democrats want to do this to gain more clients for their spoils system, but what troubles me is that many on the Right welcome this. Steve Sailer put up a post recently speculating that this would sharpen white identity as a political force in America, and it might, but if you want to live in a country that’s halfway liveable 50 years from now I think you should strenuously oppose this. This TruWhite wagon would be demographically doomed to be a permanent and fading minority within my lifetime, and since the non-TruWhite majority would be cognitively inferior, the TruWhites would be permanent scapegoats, only without majority status to protect them from unrestrained abuse.

        In spite of Vaile’s compliments towards the non-Nordics, I think Jack London was on the whole correct about the “Anglo-Saxons” being better Americans than the newcomers. However it would have been a mistake to create European castes within America, and those American Anglo-Saxons benefited by having the Irish and Italians and Greeks intermarry and eventually identify with their heritage.

        What’s done is done. America has always been a racially conscious society, but since its founding the operative rule has been “Blacks and Non-Blacks”. WNs like Richard Spencer (as well as Democratic strategists) want to turn it around to “Whites and Non-Whites”, and if they succeed I don’t think the American system works one bit. Yet if Hispanics and Middle Easterners socially identify as white, *as they sought to and were encouraged to do until quite recently in American history*, the USA will remain about 80% white, which is within historical norms. It’ll be a different kind of white, an inferior version by my lights, but still the situation would be vastly superior to the kind of thing Spencer and Obama would create.

        If Trump does win, one of the best things he could do would be to kill the efforts to fragment the census racial/ethnic categories, and somehow abolish affirmative action for everyone except blacks (who politically would have to remain sacrosanct, “for the unique historical wrongs they have suffered from” we could say). Also encourage people with mixed ethnic background (i.e. English, German and Italian) to start identifying as ethnically “American” the way that Southerners do.

        It won’t be TruWhite, but it’ll be a better future for us and our descendants.

        Richard

        November 8, 2016 at 4:14 pm

      • @ Richard

        for trump to have made those arguments it would have required him to understand them. he probably doesn’t.

        james n.s.w

        November 8, 2016 at 4:36 pm

      • start identifying as ethnically “American” the way that Southerners do

        Your goalpost moving argument has merit, but at some point you have to stop moving the goalposts or you just adjust down to the lowest standard to accommodate everyone in the group.

        bomag

        November 8, 2016 at 5:12 pm

      • @bomag

        I’m going to start listing my ethnicity as American beginning in the 2020 census. In the past I’ve identified myself as ethnically English, but that’s patrimonial inertia, tradition, not a real genetic fact anymore. I’m a Northern European mongrel with ancestry spread among England, Ireland, Wales, Denmark, Norway and Finland. Most Americans whose people came here prior to the 1920s have a patchwork like this. I’m not suggesting that people who have stringently retained their Italian or Greek purity should list themselves as American on the census, but in my case pretending I have a specific European ethnicity is pretentious nonsense.

        Richard

        November 8, 2016 at 5:39 pm

      • WNs might not include Hispanics and Middle Easterners as White, BUT they are more willing to identify with them as comrades than Jews.

        JS

        November 8, 2016 at 9:22 pm

      • Greeks are more affable than Italians, and so are Levantine Arabs and Armenians.

        Northeastern White ethnics (including Jews if you want to include them) are somewhat on the repugnant side.

        JS

        November 8, 2016 at 9:27 pm

      • And America hasn’t seen many Spaniards. Spaniards think America is prolandia.

        JS

        November 8, 2016 at 9:29 pm

  3. I simply don’t trust the exit polls.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 8, 2016 at 1:08 am

  4. Lion: your fans want your review of Westworld.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 8, 2016 at 1:08 am

    • I second that, Lion.

      Horace Pinker

      November 8, 2016 at 10:06 am

  5. What did the last thing the candidates say to the attendees in their respective late-night/early morning rallies?

    Hillary Clinton (at ~2 a.m.): “Now go vote, North Carolina!”

    Donald Trump (at ~2 a.m.): “Go to sleep, everybody. Go to bed. Then get up and vote!”

    You truly do care about the ordinary people, Mr. Trump, and it shows in the little things you do and say. I hope the nation will have the wisdom to choose you today. We would be truly blessed to have you as our President and Protector-in-Chief. May God bless you in return!

    maga

    November 8, 2016 at 1:52 am

  6. The media will report on exit poll demographic results, so expect them to breathlessly dwell on Black and Hispanic turnout, etc.

    bomag

    November 8, 2016 at 3:48 am

  7. If they think they can kick the teeth in to normal people, or influence turn out, they’ll leak the exit poll results before the polls close like they did in 2004.

    Mike Street Station

    November 8, 2016 at 6:05 am

    • All info from now until tomorrow is confirmation bias. Pay zero attention to it. Unplug.

      I still think she’ll steal it, and the fight has only just begun. Get ready for mass resistance.

      gothamette

      November 8, 2016 at 9:34 am

      • Yeah I am unplugging. Going to the movies and I’ll try to stay away from all this until tonight. It’s already been decided by this point anyway.

        Mike Street Station

        November 8, 2016 at 10:00 am

  8. “The mainstream media will have exit poll results before the polls close. They are not supposed to reveal the results to the public…”

    But they will, if for no other reason than an attempt at vote suppression. Don’t be surprised if early exit polling suggests a Clinton blowout, the idea being to demoralize Trump voters and cause them to stay home.

    Sgt. Joe Friday

    November 8, 2016 at 1:10 pm

  9. I can’t think of a data set more prone to anti-Trump skewing than “exit polls.” Ignore them.

    Or, if you insist on considering them, add at least 7 or 8 percentage points to Trump to account for the “shy-MAGA” effect.

    Maj

    November 8, 2016 at 2:10 pm

  10. I am pretty sure Trump has lost, otherwise I would be betting on him (as I did on Brexit).

    I disagree with pretty much everything Lion has written about the campaign, but then I am a socialist! (yes, its all our fault that Europe is such a hellhole and you can’t even buy assault rifles!)

    Xanadan

    November 8, 2016 at 5:22 pm

  11. Fox News is pretty much saying Trump lost.

    Dave

    November 8, 2016 at 7:43 pm

    • I read their giddiness wrong. They were talking about educated female voters breaking for Hillary.

      Dave

      November 8, 2016 at 11:43 pm


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