Lion of the Blogosphere

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Check out my tweets. Although I will continue to post longer thoughts on the blog.

I also intend to write a reivew of Westworld, but the political news may be too big right now for that.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 8, 2016 at 4:33 PM

Posted in Politics

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73 Responses

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  1. Lion, do you not agree that exit polls are likely to be greatly skewed against Trump, given the high degree of antipathy between the media and Trump voters? Who wants to admit in person to some media or academy shill with a clipboard that you just voted for the deplorable racist?

    Maj

    November 8, 2016 at 4:45 PM

  2. Reuters took down their last poll. More rigging.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 8, 2016 at 4:54 PM

    • Yes, they replaced thiss one:

      Rifleman

      November 8, 2016 at 5:19 PM

  3. I have been enjoying Westworld, look forward to your thoughts after the election. It’s going to be a close race.

    RP

    November 8, 2016 at 5:21 PM

    • Who the hell can care about a TV show at a time like this???

      Nervous Wreck

      November 8, 2016 at 5:32 PM

      • “Who the hell can care about a TV show at a time like this???”

        That’s why I’m holding back on the review.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 8, 2016 at 5:34 PM

      • If Trump wins, can we expect an emboldened alt-right to lead charge against their liberal nemesis?

        If Hillary wins, it’s a no brainer — it’s Obama 3.0 and we can expect another 4 years of the same, but worse. Game over!

        JS

        November 8, 2016 at 5:39 PM

      • I watched “Twelve Angry Men” a few days ago. I found it exasperating and can’t recommend it to anybody here, but the interesting thing was that it was perfectly plain who each of the 12 characters in the jury room would vote for in this election. Only one or two are even slightly questionable. Yet the movie came out in 1957, and were you to guess which candidate they’d have voted for in 1960 I think you could confidently pin down only two: Henry Fonda would vote for Kennedy and E. G. Marshall for Nixon.

        In the last 60 years white America has been scraped down to the roots of class and identity. And in 2016 the Fonda and Marshall characters would both be voting for the same person, Crooked Hillary.

        Richard

        November 8, 2016 at 5:57 PM

      • Interesting comment Richard.

        I thought it was an excellent movie but I’ve watched it since with younger friends and the pacing is too slow for them, which is a shame.

        According to some cursory views of the demo studies, a random 12 man jury drawn from a NYC population, might have less than 33% of its members being white. You read that correctly. Strike one against juries?

        Another philosophical brainteaser: We know from genetics, crime statistics, demography and criminal process outcomes that an ‘inner city teen’ today in such a case is overwhelmingly likely to be guilty. Let’s pretend 70% – should that predictive stat be given to the jury in their deliberation? Ie. Does statistics override and investigation of the case by a likely IQ <110 randomly drawn NYC sample?

        If so, with greater big data mining and analytics, if we can make the prediction more accurate, should the jury be eventually replaced as human minds are also susceptible to empathy arguments as put forward by Fonda? Strike 2.

        The jury deliberates on saving a life – the teen. Not on the basis of perhaps saving future lives of victim(s) of a potentially released criminal. Behavioral biases show humans discount future states of being massively out of proportion to a rational judgement. Strike 3.

        YOURREE OUTTTT!!!

        The Philosopher

        November 8, 2016 at 7:11 PM

      • @Richard,

        12 Angry Men is total 1950s liberal pablum. Liberal Hank Fonda fathered Hanoi Jane. That’s how it goes.

        gothamette

        November 8, 2016 at 7:19 PM

      • re: 12 Angry Men. Did you know that Jack Warden was a golf nut? A member at Riviera. Somehow I just didn’t see him as a golfer, like Hope, Eastwood, James Garner. I wonder if Klugman played too.

        Explainer 21

        November 8, 2016 at 9:48 PM

  4. Went to the office to pick payroll saw cute Jewish girls excited about Trump. Lol. One smart girl isn’t voting because she can’t stand either candidate. She is right in her own way, but she is only 18 and doesn’t have the historical perspective like older mates have. I like that she is independent.

    Yakov

    November 8, 2016 at 6:33 PM

    • Gothamette demo?

      Maj

      November 8, 2016 at 6:39 PM

    • Ashkenazic? Orthodox?

      Otis the Sweaty

      November 8, 2016 at 6:40 PM

      • Yeah, chassidishe. Lol! One girl goes: ‘You gotta vote for Trump!’. Like I don’t know whom to vote for.

        Yakov

        November 8, 2016 at 7:06 PM

  5. Sean Trende’s normally pretty reliable, right? He’s very bearish on Trump at the moment:

    Greg Pandatshang

    November 8, 2016 at 7:09 PM

    • Yeah, now he says he was wrong about that.

      Greg Pandatshang

      November 9, 2016 at 1:02 AM

  6. Just got back from voting for Donald J. Trump in my newly adopted state of North Carolina.

    My voter registration card says “Effective January 1, 2016, voters will be asked to show a Photo ID when voting in person. Voters who do not have a Photo ID due to a reasonable impediment that prevents them from showing a Photo ID will be able to vote a provisional ballot. Please visit http://www.ncsbe.gov for information on how to obtain an identification card at no charge if you do not currently have a Photo ID.”

    There was a sign on the door of the polling place reading “NO PHOTO ID REQUIRED TO VOTE. If this is your first time voting in North Carolina, you may be asked to show either a photo ID or a non-photo ID.”

    I was not asked for any ID, nor did I show any.

    So much for the evil Republican party voter suppression efforts. As in everything else, liberals can simply choose not to enforce the laws.

    Hermes

    November 8, 2016 at 7:16 PM

  7. No sign Trump is underperforming anywhere.

    Still early, but in Florida Trump is only doing 2 percentage points worse statewide than Rubio, who is expected to win, is.

    Still too early to call anything.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    November 8, 2016 at 7:47 PM

    • It’s actually looking worse for Trump than I thought. She’s well ahead in both FL and OH. He’s stomping her in KY and IN, but so what, they were going to go red anyway. This might be an electoral blow-out. I hope not. I really hope not.

      gothamette

      November 8, 2016 at 8:11 PM

      • So far Clinton is killing Trump in NH. This is bad. NH is a sort of white vote diagnostic.

        gothamette

        November 8, 2016 at 8:12 PM

      • It’s total confusion, as far as I can see. Trump is doing way better than Romney in some areas, including “bellwethers,” while underperforming badly in others. I guess that’s realignment. At the 538 blog Trump’s chances of victory have slowly slipped from 28% to 21%.

        Richard

        November 8, 2016 at 8:15 PM

      • Florida – Trump leads by 136,000 with 91% of the state left in.

        Ohio and North Carolina are now tied. Hillary had an early lead in both because of early voting but election day votes should keep pushing his margins out.

        Hillary is in trouble in Virginia.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 8, 2016 at 9:02 PM

      • Looks like Virginia is going to decide if this is an early night – not good for Hillary.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 8, 2016 at 9:14 PM

      • Well, Ho Lee Fuk. I won money on Predict It, after all.

        They are looking grim on PBS.

        Trump could do this. I’m totally flabbergasted.

        gothamette

        November 8, 2016 at 10:55 PM

      • Well, Ho Lee Fuk. I won money on Predict It, after all.

        As I predicted yesterday:

        https://pragmaticallydistributed.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/hillarys-turnout-problem/

        I suspect I know why Trump is confident about Florida and Hillary is in a panic about Michigan: Democrat turnout figures are unimpressive in early voting states such as North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. Meanwhile IBD suggests Republican turnout will equal Democrat turnout nationwide. If so, Hillary has good reason to be nervous:

        A quick repost of a comment I just made on Lion’s blog:

        November 7, 2016 at 5:31 pm

        IBD’s number today suggest R-D turnout levels will be even.

        Early voting totals suggest IBD is right, but that state pollsters haven’t adjusted their turnout models correctly.

        For example, in the CBS/Yougov poll of Florida, which had the state tied 45-45, their weighted sample had whites being only 61.7% of all voters, Hispanics 19.8 and blacks 13.7.

        But according to early Florida vote results whites are 66% of the electorate, Hispanics 15% and blacks 13%. If the CBS turnout model is adjusted with these actual figures then Trump is ahead by over 1 point in Florida, and this before election day voting which will break strongly for him.

        I’m now confident Trump will take Florida tomorrow.

        For another example, most state polls of North Carolina have that state even despite early voting being disastrous for Democrats.

        If state polls are generally built around 2012 turnout models and if IBD is right that Republican and Democrat turnout will be even, the state polls, which are very tight, are overestimating Hillary’s actual position.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 8, 2016 at 11:17 PM

      • @TuJ,

        He’s won FL by 100K votes. No hanging chads, no Supreme Court cases. MI is closing up though. But there are too many ways for Trump to get to 270 and not enough ways for HRC.

        Trump is 45.

        Now here’s my question: what’s all this shit about how “popular” Obama is? I think these approval ratings are crap, garbage.

        ABC News: pretty fair. Some of the usual assholery, but not bad. I have to stay up to see Hillary’s concession.

        gothamette

        November 8, 2016 at 11:31 PM

      • MI is closing up though. But there are too many ways for Trump to get to 270 and not enough ways for HRC.

        Per RCP his victory in Wisconsin brings his electoral vote total to 255. It is over if he just wins Arizona and New Hampshire even if his lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania slips.

        Now here’s my question: what’s all this shit about how “popular” Obama is? I think these approval ratings are crap, garbage.

        The ratings are generated by the same pollsters who predicted a Clinton victory.

        I have to stay up to see Hillary’s concession.

        You assume she will give one when she loses.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 9, 2016 at 12:25 AM

      • More likely, Trump loses NH but wins in MI and PA.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 9, 2016 at 12:30 AM

      • More likely, Trump loses NH but wins in MI and PA.

        He has PA. MI is probable and NH is being worked on.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 9, 2016 at 1:42 AM

  8. My office’s Bulgarian cleaning lady started a conversation with me about politics (I was surprised a couple weeks ago when she told me she’s a union SEIU worker with benefits. I always assumed they hired illegal immigrants for those jobs). She says Clinton is too aggressive on foreign policy, is going to wreck other countries (like she already did with Iraq, Syria, and Libya) and make them hate us. She says Europe is being ruined by Muslim immigrants, which her people know all about after centuries of Turkish rule. She likes that Trump would change things, but he seems a little crazy so she stayed home and didn’t vote.

    Greg Pandatshang

    November 8, 2016 at 8:44 PM

    • “She likes that Trump would change things, but he seems a little crazy so she stayed home and didn’t vote.”

      The power of the Narrative over the low information voter.

      peterike

      November 8, 2016 at 8:52 PM

      • Compared to the average American, this lady is like Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski rolled into one, seriously.

        Greg Pandatshang

        November 8, 2016 at 9:46 PM

  9. I have a bad feeling that white people are going to choose status over survival. Well, we shall see.

    I’m out. Catch ya’ll on the flip side.

    peterike

    November 8, 2016 at 8:56 PM

    • Egg McMuffin totally flamed out. Utah is Trump. Talk about a total nothingburger.

      gothamette

      November 8, 2016 at 11:43 PM

  10. *If* Clinton wins Florida the Gary Johnson cucks are to blame.

    snorlax

    November 8, 2016 at 9:04 PM

    • Libertarians draw equally. The non-Johnson pro-Libertarians are voting for Trump as the real progressive especially after Clinton stupidly went on the warpath against them. Catch up with reality.

      The Libertarians will be clearly the largest lobbying group and balance of power in their hands after this election.

      They’ve made clear they intend to bring similar results to each country in the next 2 generations after this election.

      Robert

      November 8, 2016 at 9:44 PM

  11. NYT started out with 80% for Hillary to win. They now have it 53% for Trump to win! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    http://www.nytimes.com/?WT.z_jog=1&hF=t&vS=undefined

    destructure

    November 8, 2016 at 9:35 PM

    • NYT is now predicting 73% chance for Trump win.

      destructure

      November 8, 2016 at 10:12 PM

      • I misread what you said.I thought you were talking about NY state for Hillary.

        ttgy

        November 8, 2016 at 10:35 PM

    • Are you sure?

      ttgy

      November 8, 2016 at 10:15 PM

      • Actually, they are at 82% Trump chance to win now, but it’s a meaningless call. California will come in Hillary and with 55 electoral votes change the landscape. But still, there’s gotta be a lot of shitlibs soiling their diapers right now.

        peterike

        November 8, 2016 at 10:27 PM

    • Nate Silver’s 538 blog is also now making Trump the 55% favorite to win. Just called Ohio for him.

      http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/

      Richard

      November 8, 2016 at 10:28 PM

  12. Lion, I disagree with you on so much. But thank you for your hard work at doing what you do!

    howitzer daniel

    November 8, 2016 at 9:48 PM

    • My guess that Trump would win by one percent was wrong!!!! It looks like an easy two or three percent.

      howitzer daniel

      November 8, 2016 at 10:25 PM

      • CA hasn’t come in yet.

        Otis the Sweaty

        November 8, 2016 at 11:12 PM

      • CA hasn’t come in yet.

        What have you done to Magnavox?

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 9, 2016 at 12:26 AM

    • Also, you are welcome that I predicted Trump to get more votes than Hillary for more than a year now. Your job is to figure out why he is pro-life!

      howitzer daniel

      November 8, 2016 at 10:28 PM

      • Otis – I know (read my old posts if you are angry and want to prove I am wrong). I am figuring in the 2 percent rigging!

        howitzer daniel

        November 8, 2016 at 11:54 PM

  13. I am going to have to stop reading your site. Every time you talk about stocks I get the itch to switch my investments.

    ttgy

    November 8, 2016 at 10:16 PM

    • Why? Has Lion made a fortune in the market?

      Yakov

      November 8, 2016 at 10:39 PM

      • Of course, he’s Jewish!

        Vincent

        November 8, 2016 at 11:15 PM

    • Look for a sharp drop and sharp bounce back, Brexit style

      Will

      November 8, 2016 at 11:53 PM

  14. I was at the NH rally last night. The crowd, completely full 10,000+ arena, with another 10,000 outside.
    Such a crowd with such a fervor I have never seen before in my entire life.

    NH will go Trump, I have zero doubt.

    jjbees

    November 8, 2016 at 10:39 PM

  15. Looks like he won Florida…

    Vincent

    November 8, 2016 at 10:57 PM

  16. He is going to work his heart out for the country. Trump will be one of the most, if not the most, beloved Presidents in U.S. history.

    maga

    November 8, 2016 at 11:24 PM

  17. Watching shitlib swpls ball their eyes out at Hillary’s “Glass Ceiling” victory party is priceless.

    B.T.D.T.

    November 8, 2016 at 11:41 PM

    • Watched in the gym. Loved it.

      Yakov

      November 9, 2016 at 12:32 AM

  18. CONGRATS AMERICA!!! AUSTRALIA STANDS WITH YOU!!!!!

    james n.s.w

    November 9, 2016 at 12:07 AM

  19. Idiot Chris Matthews says it’s unconstitutional to keep immigrants out because of their religion.If it is unconstitutional, the constitution is a joke.

    Nobody has a right to move here.

    ttgy

    November 9, 2016 at 12:17 AM

  20. TruCons in TX, AZ and UT absolutely killed us in the popular vote.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 9, 2016 at 12:22 AM

  21. If you’re near the coast please move inland ASAP, the Hispanic “electoral tide wave” is about to hit any decade now, according to the MSM.

    Camlost

    November 9, 2016 at 12:27 AM

  22. PA is going to be Florida all over again. Margin of a few thousand votes. Hillary will demand recount.

    Why has Lebanon County reported ZERO votes?

    peterike

    November 9, 2016 at 12:29 AM

    • Lebanon comes in big for Trump!

      peterike

      November 9, 2016 at 12:41 AM

  23. Big story no one seems to notice: idiot Gary Johnson cost Trump dearly in many states. Might still lose it for him. NH just flipped. Johnson 4.2% of the vote there.

    peterike

    November 9, 2016 at 12:31 AM

  24. Has the press asked Hillary: will you concede?

    peterike

    November 9, 2016 at 12:39 AM

  25. Some districts in Philly still haven’t reported. Holding back to see how many votes they need for Hillary to win. You wait and see.

    peterike

    November 9, 2016 at 12:46 AM

  26. Lebanon county had voter machine malfunctions earlier today at one some of their locations that was turning Republican straight ticket into Democrat straight ticket. It’s a mess and I think they are working on figuring it out now. FYI it is a white rural county that will strongly favor Trump although it’s county seat (Lebanon City) is a formerly Pa. Dutch, factory town that has basically become a Puerto-Rican cesspool due to Nuyorican outmigration. That has happened to all of the mid-sized cities in Eastern Pa over the last generation (Allentown/Lancaster/Reading/Bethlehem etc.).

    http://lancasteronline.com/news/local/voting-machine-error-causes-straight-gop-ticket-to-switch-to/article_bf43f6c0-a5e4-11e6-b1ad-f32a8078dde9.html

    roxborough's son

    November 9, 2016 at 12:50 AM

  27. With an impoverished sense of grace, Van Jones is giving a race lecture on CNN right now; appealing for empathy for the perceived-to-be excluded in light of Trump’s win.

    I want to tell him that he should have spoke up when the white privilege movement was peaking, and that he’d be giving an anti-White race lecture if Clinton had won. The rest of the CNN anchors are trying hard to speak to the interests of Trump voters for once, in a poor effort to save face.

    Weasels like Van Jones are a major problem for this country.

    Jon

    November 9, 2016 at 12:56 AM

  28. Watching the networks is nauseating. These people are disgusting. You can tell how much they didn’t want Trump to win.

    ttgy

    November 9, 2016 at 1:45 AM


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