Lion of the Blogosphere

Virginia

with 20 comments

The RCP polling average has Hillary +5.0 in a four-way race and Hillary +5.3 in a two-way race.

Virginia, a demographically diverse state where polls close at 7:00 PM, is likely to give us an early indicator after New Hampshire of how well Trump is doing.

Trump doesn’t need Virginia to win, and in fact I think he’s more likely to win with Pennsylvania or Michigan than with Virginia, so if Trump surprises us with a win here, I will declare Trump the next president of the United States.

But if Trump does worse than the RCP polling average, that would be an early indicator of very bad news for Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 8, 2016 at 2:07 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

20 Responses

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  1. I think Trump will lose VA by 3.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 8, 2016 at 2:12 pm

  2. Here’s an interesting data point:

    More than one-third (36 percent) of 2016 voters said being a strong leader was the most important quality when picking a president, compared with 18 percent of voters who said the same during 2012 election. It’s an opinion held regardless of partisan leanings: 35 percent of Democrats, 34 percent of independents and 39 percent of Republicans said that was most important.

    Could ANYBODY picture Hillary as a “strong leader”? Does that suggest those 35% of Dems could be closet Trumpites?

    Man, this whole thing is dancing on my nerves. I think I’m gonna check out until later.

    peterike

    November 8, 2016 at 2:39 pm

    • Mine too. I can’t wait till it’s 7 and I’m drinking a beer at home and waiting for the results.

      Thanks for the election coverage, Lion.

      Horace Pinker

      November 8, 2016 at 3:13 pm

      • Seconded. Thanks for all your work, lion.

        driveallnight

        November 8, 2016 at 5:16 pm

      • HP is proof that America is a sinking titanic while bread n circus is still playing.

        JS

        November 8, 2016 at 5:24 pm

    • I’m going dark, too. Might check back when the polls close just to see how it’s going.

      destructure

      November 8, 2016 at 3:40 pm

      • Not me. I’m gonna watch in the gym. If Trump wins – great. If he loses I’m getting ready for the night of the long knives, which is gonna happen eventually. Gonna lift extra hard. Gonna start practising decapitation moves. It’s us or them mates. Diversity is mayhem. It’s pure Darwin! I’m fighting for my survival till the end. You should all do the same.

        Yakov

        November 8, 2016 at 6:43 pm

  3. Check out the currency markets, Mexican currency is skyrocketing. Looks like Trump is circling the drain.

    j/k

    fortaleza84

    November 8, 2016 at 2:45 pm

    • I know, the market is acting confident.

      Yakov

      November 8, 2016 at 5:13 pm

    • The electoral track record of financial markets is poor.

      The British markets were surprised and then dropped for a few days after Leave won because they were also expecting Remain to win.

      Wait for actual results from East Coast states to indicate which way the momentum is going.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      November 8, 2016 at 5:38 pm

      • Julian Assange said Trump won’t be allowed to win.

        gothamette

        November 8, 2016 at 5:44 pm

      • Assange has his opinion. We will see results in a bit.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 8, 2016 at 6:01 pm

      • What really matters is what happens after Trump loses or wins?

        Media sources say that Trumprenproles are emboldened by his ascendancy as a candidate. It’s not that Trump is really important, it’s his constituency that really matters. Will they seek retribution if he loses, or will they use the golden rule against the liberal elites and their minions, if he wins?

        JS

        November 8, 2016 at 6:16 pm

      • I know, the market is acting confident.

        British pundits were also gloating that Remain had won based on exit polls. Even Farage, acting on information he had heard from London’s financial center and the UK media, conceded the referendum earlier in the day.

        No one knows who will win until real votes are counted.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 8, 2016 at 6:42 pm

  4. Rep operative on Twitter says that Trump will only win OH by 1 to 2 points. That is a REALLY bad sign if true. The idea of OH being competitive has never ever occurred to me.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 8, 2016 at 3:50 pm

    • Don’t do this to me Otis.

      Nervous Wreck

      November 8, 2016 at 4:44 pm

    • Nate Silver projected Trump to win Ohio by only 1.8 points, which is a pretty awful convergence since he has Clinton favored to win more than 300 EC votes.

      Richard

      November 8, 2016 at 4:50 pm

  5. I think all of you can already find the results of this last erection on the web. They seem to have released it a week before most polls opened. I have to hand it to the Bush League and Clinton gang. They’re not just the JV squad, they can’t even pull off fraud.
    I suppose all the jackals and hyenas will be gloating Tomorrow about how the Witch Queen stole the erection. Yeah, sure. Lets see if they can keep that limp biscuit together.
    There are some mistakes you cannot walk back. Both the GOP and Democrats have burned all their bridges. Only one outcome to this now.

    Joshua Sinistar

    November 8, 2016 at 8:24 pm

  6. Fox called Virginia for Clinton, which seems surprising since the NYT site hasn’t done that yet.

    Mike Street Station

    November 8, 2016 at 10:12 pm


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