Lion of the Blogosphere

I was totally wrong about a post-election stock market crash

with 22 comments

Yes, I am not always right about things. But unlike the smug left-wing mainstream media, at least I admit when I was wrong.

I wrote this post about the possible stock market crash if Trump wins. So what is the market doing today? It’s soaring.

At least I have good company. Last evening, Paul Krugman wrote:

It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Wrong, wrong wrong. It took the markets less than 24 hours to recover.

I may have also been wrong, but I don’t have a Nobel Prize in Economics and don’t get paid a lot of money to write a newspaper column in the world’s most prestigious newspaper. And I don’t expect Krugman to apologize.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 9, 2016 at 3:01 pm

Posted in Investments, Politics

22 Responses

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  1. Very bad times are coming for both the stock market and the economy as a whole. Was true whether Trump won or not. Trump is going to need to get rid of all the immigrants and use massive infrastructure spending to prop up American wages. That is what Japan has done.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 9, 2016 at 3:12 pm

    • A basic income will solve the all of the problems of wage stagnation and a lack of jobs.

      Trump or dump, America is in the process of implosion. His ascension to power signals an end to our DC Political Circus, and a further balkanization of what is already divisive. The delusional Democrats and their followers are unyielding, like Trump’s rise to the polls, but are incapable of any reasoning and rationalization. I see a dangerous trend ahead, as these psychopaths try to regroup, with TruCons/Cucks fomenting a similar movement.

      JS

      November 10, 2016 at 1:06 am

  2. This is not surprising, since everyone in the media is a bed wetting Prog. Of course they all went off the deep end predicting doom and gloom.

    This sort of thing from Krugman is just risible: “The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.”

    FEAR!!! They are always SO. AFRAID.

    But hey, flooding white nations with third world vermin? Nothing to fear!!

    Electing a guy who once called some Latinx fat? END OF THE WORLD!!!

    peterike

    November 9, 2016 at 3:13 pm

    • For them, this really is a disaster. They are not overreacting here. This is the death blow to Globalism and not even in America. For the first time, Liberals see that they are on the wrong side of history.

      Otis the Sweaty

      November 9, 2016 at 5:26 pm

      • I doubt if the liberals will ever admit they were wrong. They will go on thinking we Trump supporters are worse than nazis. Meanwhile it is actually themselves who are the new nazis. They join with the Muslims to vilify Israel and try to impose speech and thought restrictions on society.

        Rosenmops

        November 9, 2016 at 10:54 pm

      • I doubt if the liberals will ever admit they were wrong. They will go on thinking we Trump supporters are worse than nazis. Meanwhile it is actually themselves who are the new nazis. They join with the Muslims to vilify Israel and try to impose speech and thought restrictions on society and the media.

        Rosenmops

        November 9, 2016 at 11:08 pm

  3. Well you were technically right for a few hours.

    And who is Krugman kidding with that rant? Almost every major pronouncement he’s made on economics is tinted, if not wholly motivated, by his political beliefs. “Liberal economist” means liberalism first, then economics as a justification. He’s never been anything else.

    Jason Liu

    November 9, 2016 at 3:14 pm

  4. Markets hate uncertainty. I’m not surprised uncertainty over the election weighed them down and removing that uncertainty allowed them to soar. On the other hand, we’re overdue for a correction. So this could have been the catalyst for that, too. As I said when you made your prediction, missing out on additional gains generally outweighs what one would lose if they get out at the first sign of a sell signal.

    destructure

    November 9, 2016 at 3:17 pm

  5. Krugman has been emoting like a bitch ever since Trump kicked his table over. He deserves his emotional instability.

    Richard

    November 9, 2016 at 3:22 pm

  6. Other than the semi-logical bounce in biotech, this could simply be the plunge-protection team giving people a final chance to get out at decent prices. There’s going to be too much uncertainty going forward for a rally to be sustained.

    Fiddlesticks

    November 9, 2016 at 3:31 pm

  7. Krugman’s New Trade Theory, for which he actually got the nobel price, has strong anti-globalist and Hamiltonian implications, which he chooses to ignore and downplay. His theory matches Trump’s intuition actually and it matches the policy practice of the Chinese and Japanese.

    Contrarian

    November 9, 2016 at 3:32 pm

  8. Krugman is really wearing his heart on his sleeve; so much that he won’t even do his job. I’m loving it!

    Mike Street Station

    November 9, 2016 at 4:04 pm

  9. Krugman is such a complete clown I get embarrassed for him when I try to read his doggerel.

    Two in the Bush

    November 9, 2016 at 4:12 pm

  10. “But if there was jubilation, there was also anger. A large number shouted “Lock her up” when John Podesta, Mrs Clinton’s campaign manager, appeared on the banquet room’s big screens. There were boos when images from Mrs Clinton’s election night party appeared. In some corners of the room, as Mr Trump’s victory became assured, the boos turned to laughter. “C’mon, how mad are you that Trump won? C’mon you can tell me” someone urged, several times, at your correspondent. Another quipped, “Did you see the reporters? The colour is draining from their faces”. But others, who seemed keen to mock the journalists present, were hushed by their friends.”

    The Economist reports on the Trump celebrations. Very funny passage I thought.

    The Philosopher

    November 9, 2016 at 4:55 pm

  11. Don’t confuse a crash and a downtrend trend. Patience, I think you’re right about the direction of the stock market, and govt bonds are probably a better way to forecast.

    cesqy

    November 9, 2016 at 4:55 pm

  12. Nassim Taleb:

    Krugman is losing his marbles.

    gothamette

    November 9, 2016 at 4:57 pm

  13. My girlfriend giggled that stock market futures were cratering after Trump’s victory. My instance response was that’s good news, it’s a buyer’s market, lots of bargains out there. Who cares that a few hysterical pajamaboys dumped stocks at a steep loss.

    hard9bf

    November 9, 2016 at 5:52 pm

  14. In addition to President Powerbottom, Mitt Romney, and the Bush family, it looks like Lord God Emperor Trump grabbed Krugman by the pussy as well, grabbed him till he bled from his whatever.

    hard9bf

    November 9, 2016 at 5:55 pm

  15. I actually argued with a liberal shit head on election day in private

    His reasoning for not voting for trump was the usual spiel, dumb ass has a economics degree big surprise

    His reasoning was

    I’m a educated professional! So the ilegals won’t effect my life!

    When brought up that the illegals consume tax dollars by getting paid in cash, not paying taxes getting free healthcare. Thereby increasing taxes on him and any benefit on cheaper services get cancelled out

    He claims that we need consumers to prop up our economy, it makes our market bigger and allows economies of scale

    I counter with that countries like india and Malaysia have many people yet are dirt poor.

    He counters with those rules don’t apply to the usa (American exceptionalism) and all of these hispanics will be doctors and Lawyers and they will magically turn white using el paso Texas as an example where the city is 80% hispanic whites

    Then claims the rotting fruit garbage nytimes articles

    I counter with we weren’t starving in the 1950s with nobody to pick fruit. And our unemployment and disability have skyrocketed thereby signalling displaced workers.

    He continues to insist that Americans would refuse to pick fruit stay on welfare while the entire country starves to death

    Claims that wealth can be printed infinitly and having a lot of unemployed in the usa and giving them welfare for life is a good thing because wealth is infinite and all tax dollars eventually go back to the government while skyrocketing our gdp.

    No surprise, ends up voting for Gary johnson

    Whats the lesson? Most economics education is worthless, many of these friedman / krugman are obsessed with worshipping gdp and can’t tell the difference between value production and value transference and encourages the production of as many parasite accountants and lawyers as possible.

    On the other hand to convince somebody else to vote for trump, this person had no formal education all I had to explain was that the illegals are coming here getting free education and healthcare and not paying taxes because they are illegals and they instantly decided to vote for trump.

    I would imagine the thought process of many of the Elites flooding the usa with 3rd world trash aND fighting to open the borders have similar thought processes

    They won’t compete with me for employment because I have a economics phd, more people = more gdp , more growth, falling birth rates means we need to import more 3rd world trash as consumers to fuel our internal market. And somehow they will all magically turn white after 200 years and be indistinguishable from the Irish and Italians.

    It is clear that the fall of the western civilization can be directly attributed to over educated economists

    The swj warriors while annoying don’t have the ability to let in refugees or open the borders.

    The economists on the other hand convince idiot politicians that open borders is good for the future of the country, trust me I have a PhD in economics!

    Hbd investor

    November 9, 2016 at 6:16 pm

    • It seems the the SJW , the economists and big business all conspire for open borders and have brought about the current mess.

      Rosenmops

      November 9, 2016 at 11:10 pm

    • Well, that guy’s economics degree was a waste of money.

      (Except for its most important part, being a credential.)

      Glengarry

      November 10, 2016 at 4:32 am

  16. I was wrong about the popular vote and right about the market.

    Yakov

    November 10, 2016 at 7:14 am


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