Lion of the Blogosphere

Reminder: I predicted Trump winning this way in November, 2015

with 65 comments

Yes, in November 2015 I wrote:

When stupid political pundits assure readers, and themselves, that Trump can’t win the Presidential election, they drone on about the Hispanic vote and how Trump has alienated them assuring that he will lose.

But the key to Trump winning lies not with Hispanics, it’s with prole whites in places like Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania, according to the 2010 Census, is 79% white and only 6% Hispanic. Pennsylvania ought to be a slam dunk for Republicans—Republicans always win in Georgia which is only 56% white—but in Pennsylvania Republicans keep losing.

I believe that in an election against Hilllary Clinton, Trump will be able to win the support of prole whites in Pennsylvania who have traditionally voted Democratic.

Today, Trump wins Pennsylvania.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 9, 2016 at 12:52 am

Posted in Politics

65 Responses

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  1. Congrats to you, and to Steve Sailor who has been hammering the point for years that Republicans should just ignore minorities (Asians included) and focus on motivating whites, especially white proles.

    Daniel

    November 9, 2016 at 1:05 am

    • Ditto this.

      I’m curious to hear how Joe Scarborough deals with his “PA is GOP fools gold” thesis.

      Mike Street Station

      November 9, 2016 at 1:36 am

    • They have been ignoring minorities, but were disingenuous with their constituency. Sort of like guidos who embrace liberalism.

      JS

      November 9, 2016 at 1:40 am

    • You can’t ignore minorites. You have to let prole whites know your policies are also good for nonwhites. Now Lion has me saying prole!

      Dave

      November 9, 2016 at 2:33 am

      • I agree. A nationalist and populist agenda should appeal to more than just white proles.

        Lewis Medlock

        November 9, 2016 at 1:11 pm

    • I’m glad he won, but that strategy won’t work forever.

      Jason Liu

      November 9, 2016 at 3:25 am

      • yes it will. Hispanics and Asians will ultimately marry into the white majority and it is also now clear that the more whites you win, the more Hispanics and Asians you win.

        The Sailer Strategy works.

        Otis the Sweaty

        November 9, 2016 at 10:54 am

  2. Lion the genius.

    McFly

    November 9, 2016 at 1:07 am

    • We have to be sure not to pedestalize, so toss in several negs now and then.

      bomag

      November 9, 2016 at 9:36 am

  3. I don’t really dig these “I predicted” posts. My drunk sister at 2015 Thanksgiving predicted Trump’s victory. So did I. Who cares? What we have on our hands is an historic occasion so let’s not sully it with self-aggrandizement too much.

    But yeah, we were all in PA so you were right about that. PA was always conservative aside from that giant tumor called Philadelphia.

    Anyway, I’m glad my vote mattered.

    But holy hell what economic catastrophes the powers-that-be have in store for us now…The stock circuit breakers are already breaking. Interesting times.

    onetwothree

    November 9, 2016 at 1:09 am

    • A while back, I worked for a few days with a senior analyst on a way to forecast a particular number. After a few days, we were getting nowhere. He threw up his hands and exclaimed “Well, no one can predict the future!” There’s a lot of wisdom in that. And yet, it’s our job to try.

      Greg Pandatshang

      November 9, 2016 at 1:30 am

    • What IS notable is the ring counties around Philadelphia– where I live– did NOT vote for Trump. Went heavily for Clinton. And they all still voted for other GOP candidates.

      Nobody who knows PA politics would have predicted Trump could win Pennsylvania without winning Chester, Montgomery, and Bucks counties.

      That is a LOT of angry Pennsyltuckians.

      karlub

      November 9, 2016 at 9:49 am

  4. Hmmm, are you sure? I’m pretty sure Trump didn’t win Pennsylvania or, really, anything. The polls don’t look very good and the media has advised me there’s for sure no such thing as the Shy Trump Voter. Sorry, I think you’re engaged in wishful thinking here.

    Greg Pandatshang

    November 9, 2016 at 1:11 am

    • I’m pretty sure Trump didn’t win Pennsylvania or, really, anything.

      He didn’t win Penn according to who? The networks that didn’t call Ohio when 60% of the state was reporting and Trump was up 11 points?

      Trump is the president elect of the United States because Pennsylvania is 98.44% in and he leads by 67,000 votes.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      November 9, 2016 at 1:41 am

      • No, that can’t be right. Pundits told me in 2015 that Trump cannot win. It’s probably a typo. #doesnotcompute … so many typos tonight, it’s weird.

        Greg Pandatshang

        November 9, 2016 at 2:00 am

      • Pundits told me in 2015 that Trump cannot win.

        Podesta just repeated that message when he announced no concession tonight.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 9, 2016 at 2:22 am

  5. You’ve been a tireless advocate from Trump since the very beginning. You deserve a place in the administration, along with Yakov and Otis.

    Camlost

    November 9, 2016 at 1:14 am

  6. Congrats Lion.

    Andrew E.

    November 9, 2016 at 1:21 am

  7. You were right, Lion. I kept my shares on Predict It out of inertia. I sold them at 80 cents a share and could have won more, but who cares?

    Trump won….I can hardly believe it.

    gothamette

    November 9, 2016 at 1:21 am

  8. congratulations, lion! you stuck with trump through thick and thin and called this right the whole time, definitely cant be said the same for myself. this only re-enforces my opinion of you as a great blogger and an excellent pundit and social commentator. here’s to more years of your awesome blog, with your great, sometimes argumentative, wacky community of followers.

    now let’s just hope someone comes along to make australia great again too!!

    james n.s.w

    November 9, 2016 at 1:27 am

  9. If Trump runs for a second term he could pick up New Hampshire, most of Maine, and Minnesota. If he doesn’t run in 2020 then we’re likely stuck with Pence and things will go poorly.

    Spoons

    November 9, 2016 at 1:29 am

    • Nah Ivanka is up next. She’ll be the first Jewish president as well as the first woman. Whatever SJWs are left by that time will spontaneously combust.

      Lionel of the Richiesphere

      November 9, 2016 at 7:56 am

  10. As someone who is not American I got a question, how comes DC voted 90% for Clinton, I haven’t seen any other state with such a huge disparity. Does it mean that all the people who work there are democrats? Will it be the opposite in the next election assuming Trump wins?

    Hashed

    November 9, 2016 at 1:32 am

    • Most everybody in DC is tied into the status quo – Republican or Democrat. Many will lose their comfy lobbying, legislative staff sinecures with Trump. They supported Hillary for naked self interest. Picture Versailles just before King Louis XVI lost his throne (and head).

      Daniel

      November 9, 2016 at 1:49 am

    • DC is not a state, it’s the District of Columbia. It’s 90% black and 10% gay white.

      gothamette

      November 9, 2016 at 1:50 am

      • But does it include Washington DC with all the people who work for the government or do they live in a different state?

        Hashed

        November 9, 2016 at 2:22 am

      • And most of the rich people that make money in DC live in Virginia or Maryland. A distinction without a difference, perhaps, as both of those are also pretty reliably democrat at this point as well.

        karlub

        November 9, 2016 at 9:51 am

      • No, only folks who live in the District are counted as voters. Peeps who work in DC and live in VA vote in VA.

        DC gets 3 electoral votes. Ridiculous. Three easy Dem votes.

        There was a movement for them to get 2 senators for a while, because race (i.e., blacks). That might be revived what with Obama moving to Kalorama.

        Clear?

        gothamette

        November 9, 2016 at 10:08 am

  11. Lion — Congrats, now please join Yakov and embrace Meriprolestan. Better yet, move back to Arizona, which is the only true red state among the blue SW states.

    Hypocrisy looms when you remain in Manhattan among a sea of wealthy SWPLs.

    JS

    November 9, 2016 at 1:37 am

    • “Like a spy behind enemy lines, I arrived every day at my mid-Manhattan office and sat at my computer terminal . . . ”

      I think you know the source.

      ice hole

      November 9, 2016 at 2:06 am

  12. This is only the beginning!

    GOP must be realigned behind Trump or be thrown out of office!

    Alt. Right media and networks must form and send the big networks to the dustbin of history!

    Build the Wall and Deport!

    Trump’s victory is not a time to rest or celebrate. We just barely escaped total oblivion; we have breathing room now and we must attack! No more defense! ATTACK!

    fakeemail

    November 9, 2016 at 1:42 am

    • Yes!

      Curle

      November 9, 2016 at 3:06 am

    • As a first order of business, I’d like to see the new federal government cancel all grants to universities which have been supporting the destruction of free speech.

      Marty

      November 9, 2016 at 12:15 pm

  13. I switched from Scott Walker to Trump in the summer of 2015 and I was right he would take Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida:

    https://pragmaticallydistributed.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/hillarys-turnout-problem/

    I suspect I know why Trump is confident about Florida and Hillary is in a panic about Michigan: Democrat turnout figures are unimpressive in early voting states such as North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. Meanwhile IBD suggests Republican turnout will equal Democrat turnout nationwide. If so, Hillary has good reason to be nervous:

    A quick repost of a comment I just made on Lion’s blog:

    November 7, 2016 at 5:31 pm

    IBD’s number today suggest R-D turnout levels will be even.

    Early voting totals suggest IBD is right, but that state pollsters haven’t adjusted their turnout models correctly.

    For example, in the CBS/Yougov poll of Florida, which had the state tied 45-45, their weighted sample had whites being only 61.7% of all voters, Hispanics 19.8 and blacks 13.7.

    But according to early Florida vote results whites are 66% of the electorate, Hispanics 15% and blacks 13%. If the CBS turnout model is adjusted with these actual figures then Trump is ahead by over 1 point in Florida, and this before election day voting which will break strongly for him.

    I’m now confident Trump will take Florida tomorrow.

    For another example, most state polls of North Carolina have that state even despite early voting being disastrous for Democrats.

    If state polls are generally built around 2012 turnout models and if IBD is right that Republican and Democrat turnout will be even, the state polls, which are very tight, are overestimating Hillary’s actual position.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    November 9, 2016 at 1:43 am

    • What do you make of Nevada? F’ing Nevada went for Clinton by 3 percentage points. Does Dirty Harry Reid control a machine? It can’t only be the Latinos.

      gothamette

      November 9, 2016 at 1:51 am

      • Nevada also has large Mormon population and that vote may have been depressed, making Nevada look more Democratic than it actually is in a normal year.

        STL

        November 9, 2016 at 4:51 am

      • Yeah, that might have accounted for a couple percentage points, but I think it was Dirty Harry’s machine. He is a sleazeball extraordinaire. Thank God he’s retiring.

        gothamette

        November 9, 2016 at 10:09 am

    • Ralston won Nevada for Clinton, but it turns out it he fell for a faint: The Trump campaign was gunning for Pennsylvania.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      November 9, 2016 at 2:16 am

  14. I am so happy. God bless you Lion, and God bless you all. This is a great day for America.

    Two in the Bush

    November 9, 2016 at 1:54 am

  15. Good call Lion.

    But the pundits weren’t totally wrong about the Hispanic wave, which delivered large margin victories for Clinton in Nevada and Colorado. Trump’s strength in the Midwest was something the party/pundits couldn’t see.

    Rotten

    November 9, 2016 at 1:56 am

  16. If only Rubio had lost tonight. my joy would be fulsome …

    Greg Pandatshang

    November 9, 2016 at 2:02 am

  17. The Clinton campaign sent out Podesta to announce there would be no concession tonight.

    Hilarious. They can recount votes from PA, NC, FL, OH a hundred times and Trump will win every time. And that’s assuming Trump doesn’t win Michigan, which he probably will.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    November 9, 2016 at 2:19 am

  18. Trump’s wave has guaranteed at least 53 Senate seats for the Republicans, enough to repeal Obamacare.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    November 9, 2016 at 2:20 am

  19. *** We need to see if Trump demonstrates his true intentions — “it’s now time to get rid of Mayor de Blasio from City Hall”.

    JS

    November 9, 2016 at 2:28 am

  20. So everybody talked about the Hispanic vote, the black vote, the Evangelicals, the single women, the white vote etc. But in the end it all came down to the Amish vote.

    tanabear

    November 9, 2016 at 2:35 am

  21. He got PA. Mates, I’m emotional. This is truly extraordinary. Wow! We can save the country now!

    Yakov

    November 9, 2016 at 2:44 am

  22. A glorious victory. Goes to show how much the media gaslights the right. Huffington Post had like a 1.9% chance of Trump winning. Their tears are delicious.

    Jason Liu

    November 9, 2016 at 3:26 am

  23. Incredible.

    I can’t believe Scott Adams was right and I was wrong. Stunning. Horrifying. Amusing. Ridiculous.

    Vince

    November 9, 2016 at 3:59 am

  24. I’m delirious with joy at this result. Last year, my own country of Canada elected a leader who turned out to be a petulant man-boy by the name of Justin Trudeau. Trudeau would literally have given his back teeth to have had Hillary elected as President. The fact that Trudeau will now have to deal with a tough, real man (and not to mention a hard ass like Trump), and not a slimy liberal like Clinton, just makes my day.!!!

    Roli

    November 9, 2016 at 4:16 am

    • Amen, fellow Canadian. MCGA!!

      Samson J.

      November 9, 2016 at 9:42 am

  25. Nice one Lion. I remember the pain of 2012 and I’m amazed and thrilled to see Trump brought it home despite the best efforts of the liberal media and even some in the GOP. Trump’s acceptance speech was very gracious. Let’s savor this victory.

    Julian

    November 9, 2016 at 5:38 am

  26. I wonder how many on here besides me supported Trump’s run in 2012? I also put money on him to win the presidency back before he won the nomination, on Predictit.

    CamelCaseRob

    November 9, 2016 at 7:27 am

  27. Good morning Lion. (And a very good morning it is indeed!) I have nothing useful to add to the analysis but will be refreshing your page every 5 minutes waiting for the live stream of Turambar committing seppuku. Can you make sure it is in an open format? My iPad can’t display flash.

    Lionel of the Richiesphere

    November 9, 2016 at 7:52 am

  28. The smug was thick on the ground at Hillary HQ last night even in the middle of a major loss. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3919142/Shock-despair-silence-Clinton-HQ.html

    I loved your proposal yesterday to measure developments in the race according to your own self-developed ‘smug’ index. Comedy gold and oh so perceptive.

    At a victory party yesterday I attended with one of the three or four people I’ve turned on to your site (mostly lurkers I think) my fellow Lion reader said ‘Lion was right, wasn’t he? I’d like to meet him some day.’ I concurred.

    Finding your earlier site years ago and following you to this site, reading Fussell and learning from the comments helped me develop my own thinking about many things, not the least my thinking about the Republican Party. Thank you.

    Curle

    November 9, 2016 at 8:57 am

  29. Some Senatorial candidates who supported Trump benefited greatly last night, especially Johnny Isakson of Georgia.

    Here’s the new state rep in my area, I think I’m in love:

    http://hansonforhouse.com/

    Camlost

    November 9, 2016 at 9:00 am

  30. Here in Canada nobody “can believe it”, and it feels so so so sweet. Congrats, my American friends – let’s make North America great again!

    Samson J.

    November 9, 2016 at 9:20 am

  31. More smug on display by Hillary supporters. Someone should archive this stuff for posterity. Note how the over dramatic sense of self-importance comes through loud and clear.

    ”I honestly feel a piece of my soul died,” said Katie Larson, a 25-year-old musician living in Manhattan. “We lost a piece of our dignity as Americans.” http://nypost.com/2016/11/09/donald-trump-is-elected-president-in-historic-upset/

    I’ve been hearing this kind of hysterical and dramatic nonsense from a woman at the office, not to mention in the media, for the last eight months and I’m sick of it. I’ve come to the conclusion the Muslims have one thing right, women, on the whole, have no business being involved in important business like elections or voting (sorry MaryK and Gothemette). John Knox had it right in his ‘First Blast of the Trumpet Against the Monsterous Regiment of Women. http://www.gutenberg.org/files/9660/9660-h/9660-h.htm

    “To promote a Woman to bear rule, superiority, dominion or empire above any realm, nation or city is

    A. Repugnant to nature.

    B. Contumely to GOD.

    C. The subversion of good order, of all equity and justice.”

    We need to repeal the 19th Amend and to build a coalition sufficient to do so perhaps after whites organize their own version of Islam or find some other suitable male dominant religion. Christianity has gone off the rails as far as adequately segregating the sexes.

    Curle

    November 9, 2016 at 9:25 am

    • Wouldn’t John Knox’s Presbyterianism be sufficient, given that he’s the authority you cite (and I’m about to click on the link, so thanks for that)?

      Garr

      November 9, 2016 at 10:05 am

    • You match the SJW’s in hysteria & stupidity.

      I watch them and larf.

      I suggest you do the same.

      gothamette

      November 9, 2016 at 10:12 am

  32. Strong work everyone! We all helped make this possible; and maybe Lion a little more than the rest.

    Speaking of rest, I feel like I need a month long vacation in the stratosphere to recover from the tension and hysteria of the past months. But today, despite the clouds outside, today is a glorious morning!

    peterike

    November 9, 2016 at 9:28 am

  33. […] of the Blogosphere notes that Pennsylvania had demographics that looked good for Republicans for a while, but it hadn’t […]

  34. The day belongs to you. You are no longer the Lion, you are now THE KING! Enjoy, bro.

    As an aside, do you find it ironic, or perhaps even amusing, that all the journalists who lied endlessly about Trump and awaited his downfall will now receive raises and possibly promotions?

    The Shepherd

    November 9, 2016 at 2:51 pm

  35. Michael Moore was right too, more correct than I am (who only had a strong premonition that that Trump would win when the Five Thirty models favored Trump in Iowa, Florida, and Ohio). I realized then (November 3) that it was more likely that Trump would win, since I had an intuition that the polls are not capturing pro-Trump sentiment. It would be like the Brexit Vote. I only conceived of a Trump win requiring the additional victory of Pennsylvania and Virginia, but during November 3rd I did not image a Trump victory in Wisconsin or Michigan.

    Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit. I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat). In the Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote for the Republicans (1.32 million) that the Democrats (1.19 million). Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor next-door, John Kasich.

    Emphasis mine

    https://web.archive.org/web/20160723202723/http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

    Black_Rose

    November 9, 2016 at 5:00 pm


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