Lion of the Blogosphere

The popular vote

with 31 comments

Not all votes have been counted. The NY Times model predicts that HRC will win the popular vote by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points, and I certainly believe the model because the model proved to be extremely accurate last night predicting a win in Pennsylvania for Trump while also predicting that HRC would win New Hampshire.

This actually means the polls weren’t that far off. We didn’t see the big 6-point swing we saw with the Brexit vote. The RCP average on Tuesday morning had HRC ahead by 3.3 percentage points, so actual voting swung 2.7 points in Trump’s favor.

Many times during the last several months, some people talked in comments about the popular vote being different than the electoral count, and I always responded that if they don’t match, it would be in Trump’s favor.

The electoral count, for starters, favors whichever candidate does better in rural less-populated states. On top of that, you have California, the most populated state, which voted for HRC by a huge margin of 61.4% to 33.3%, while Trump won many swing states by rather slim margins, especially Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

We heard a lot about how increasing numbers of Hispanic voters would vote Democratic, and that did happen, but they were disproportionately voting in California.

I predict that liberals will not let this go and we will continually be hearing that Trump is the illegitimate president because he didn’t win the popular vote.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 9, 2016 at 10:37 am

Posted in Politics

31 Responses

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  1. The fact that Trump couldn’t win the popular vote against a candidate a terrible as Hillary is a very bad sign. Trump is going to have to build a massive voter suppression machine.

    Otis the Sweaty

    November 9, 2016 at 10:47 am

    • No, a better solution is to bring millions of white immigrants from race realist Eastern European countries to correct the population imbalance.

      Yakov

      November 9, 2016 at 11:41 am

      • No no no. Take them from Africa (which is never gonna happen). And we need to start paying people to renounce their citizenship (which is also never gonna happen).

        Unless Trump institutes radical changes (which are highly highly unlikely) demographics are going to keep getting worse and worse for the republicans (and for the country since poor bitter alienated people vote democrat).

        Magnavox

        November 9, 2016 at 12:12 pm

      • Yes, a demographic known for their bad teeth and halitosis.

        JS

        November 9, 2016 at 12:31 pm

    • I agree. We need to make it harder for the Dems to get nursing home invalids voting. We need strong voter IDs and controls to cut down on illegal voting in Philadelphia.

      Economic Sophisms

      November 9, 2016 at 11:42 am

    • Are you calling for voter suppression? What type of suppression and who would be targeted? What are your arguments for why this would be a good thing for the country?

      Aric

      November 10, 2016 at 12:00 am

      • Yes. Voter suppression should be done by 2 ways: strict enforcement against fraud in democratic areas and breaking up the Dem get out the vote machines. Buy off whatever elements of those machine can be bought off and have the FBI and state/local police shut down the rest under claims of fraud.

        Use our control of rural and suburban counties to do massive ballot box stuffing. Basically, enforce election fraud laws ultra strictly against Democrats but outright assist Republican voter fraud.

        It is going to take us decades to fully assimilate Asians and Hispanics into the white majority so we are going to need suppression/fraud in the meantime to keep minorities from just demographically overwhelming us. Without voter suppression and vote fraud we will not be able to beat Cory Booker in 2020.

        Otis the Sweaty

        November 10, 2016 at 12:59 am

  2. Well observed. The noise about scrapping the Electoral College has already become louder, and this time I don’t think the Left will drop the topic, as they did after Gore.

    It’s difficult to forecast a split electoral-popular vote and be right. But it becomes more probable if politics become more racial, since nonwhites are still so concentrated in a few places.

    I’ve been expecting to never see another Republican president, and I was wrong. Though I still have to wonder if we’ll ever see a Republican win the popular vote.

    The electorate was still 2 points less white this election, as expected. And it will be 2 points less white in each election for the foreseeable future.

    Trump would have won the popular vote in the America of 2012.

    Wency

    November 9, 2016 at 10:52 am

    • I don’t believe the electorate was 2 points less white than 2012. White turnout was awful in 2012 and black turnout was through the roof. This election was the opposite.

      Otis the Sweaty

      November 9, 2016 at 10:55 am

      • Otis,

        The actual demographic electorate was less white than in 2012. Not the electorate that actually turned out. I’m surprised you don’t understand that. Well, nothing about you surprises me.

        gothamette

        November 10, 2016 at 8:20 am

    • On the other hand, the time has come to clean house. Get rid of illegals, sanctuary cities, anchor babies, the cuck consent to vote fraud of 1982 and all that garbage. And at the same time, implement E-Verify, voter ID, and more. Bring out the rest of the monster vote and rule for 100 more years.

      Glengarry

      November 9, 2016 at 11:12 am

    • Maybe it’s time to apportion the electoral vote by congressional district. Instead of California having winner-take-all electoral votes, you spread them around by size of the congressional district. That way your capture the votes of the 20 million Republicans who live in California.

      map

      November 10, 2016 at 3:36 am

  3. We will be hearing that Trump is illegitimate . . .

    Yes, but . . . Not only did we elect a President but WE, you, me and all of us (with the help of he Otis index), elected a megaphone as well. A megaphone that doesn’t stay turned off when subjected to stray slanders.

    Next task, take down the media. Trump needs to start mirroring Teddy Roosevelt. He needs to separate media ownership from other commercial ownership (say Mexican telephone card sales or online retailing). There’s much much more, but it needs to happen. And, a new media needs to be installed in its place.

    Curle

    November 9, 2016 at 10:56 am

    • The highly regarded Otis Index ended up being overly bullish on Hillary, as I expected. It had her winning by nearly 2 points. I had Trump winning by 1 point which was overly bullish towards Trump.

      Looks like Hillary will win by 1.3 points. Ouch. The Otis Index and Rasmussen got it the closest.

      Otis the Sweaty

      November 9, 2016 at 12:37 pm

  4. The mere idea of Trump will put a big clamp on the flow of illegal immigrants, even before he does anything regarding executive orders.

    But the most important objective is achieved – conservative control of the Supreme Court.

    Camlost

    November 9, 2016 at 11:04 am

  5. Isn’t Trump getting less overall votes than Romney did in 2012? The difference is 5 million less votes to the Democrat.

    Camlost

    November 9, 2016 at 11:25 am

  6. But the popular vote reflects a bunch of ringers the democrats and cuckolds brought in from the third world to vote against America.

    Strip out illegals, anchor citizens, vote rigging, puerto ricans, and so on and Trump wins the pop vote.

    Once Trump brings in immigration reform the demographics will ease. His childcare policies must encourage whites to have kids. And he needs to expand Planned Parenthood to the inner city….

    The Philosopher

    November 9, 2016 at 11:25 am

  7. The Democraps had Congressional supermajorities in 2009 and could have ended the electoral college then if it meant so much to them, but they were too busy destroying America’s healthcare system and shoving 0bamacare down our throats. And now Lord God Emperor Trump has promised to repeal that shitty law that nobody likes, so it’ll be like Osambo never assumed orifice. Ha to the ever lovin’ ha!

    hard9bf

    November 9, 2016 at 11:37 am

  8. There’s no doubt about it, from a propaganda standpoint, losing the popular vote isn’t ideal. But the popular vote isn’t the contest. Trump, in retrospect could have done fewer stops in PA and WI and done more in Alabama and Texas to rouse the popular vote. Crooked Evil Hillary won it because of “Dude Weed” legislation MA and CA (this is also why Trump lost NV) that brought out the deadbeat vote. There was nothing similar in safe red states to pad our popular vote numbers.

    Economic Sophisms

    November 9, 2016 at 11:39 am

  9. I wonder if Trump would have won the popular vote if there were no electoral college. He might have campaigned in different places at times, etc. small adjustments like that. It wouldn’t take much. On the other hand, Clinton would have adjusted her strategy a little, too.

    Greg Pandatshang

    November 9, 2016 at 11:43 am

    • I think they key alternate reality question is: would he have won the popular vote if the media was fair and his party didn’t stab him in the back?

      Magnavox

      November 9, 2016 at 12:13 pm

  10. Isn’t this kinda skewed by the fact that most of the major, densely populated cities (NY, LA, Chicago) are situated in heavily blue states?

    Brendan

    November 9, 2016 at 11:57 am

    • Actually, the way to look at it is that those states are heavily blue BECAUSE OF the major cities. Take NY as an example. Geographically, the vast majority of the state is red. But NYC is concentrated Blue territory. The Albany area — that cess pit of one of the most corrupt state gov’ts in the nation — is Blue. The university town of Syracuse is Blue. And a few other cities. But largely, the state is red.

      In fact, this pattern is pretty typical. Illinois as well. All the vermin drain into the cities. This also concentrates their votes into a few states, as the SJWs from Wisconsin, Kansas, etc. all go to the same places.

      The downside of Trump winning is that Russia no longer has any reason to drop a bomb on NY, Chicago, San Fran and LA, thus eliminating a huge portion of our Progressive population.

      peterike

      November 9, 2016 at 1:04 pm

      • True…yet one thing that people like you don’t understand…Trump is different:

        He’s a wealthy Manhattanite like Bloomberg, which makes him more blue than the run-in-the-mill Republicans based out of peasantville.

        He feels more at home with his neighbors that voted against him than his constituents in prole-prole land.

        JS

        November 9, 2016 at 1:42 pm

  11. Reading some of the nitwits on Twitter, it seems like a lot of people think Trump is President already. God, what a bunch of idiots live in Meriproleistan!

    peterike

    November 9, 2016 at 12:01 pm

  12. Only Huwyte vote counts, not the tens of millions of ringers the Establishment imported.

    fakeemail

    November 9, 2016 at 12:09 pm

  13. There was an interesting suggestion at Vox Day: apportioing electoral votes by congressional district instead of the popular vote by state. Will have to crunch the numbers, but that is an interesting suggestion.

    There are roughly 20 million conservatives in Califronia that would have their votes matter with this kind of system.

    In addition:

    1) Trump cannot leave the country to talk to Putin. in fact, his security has to be beefed up.

    2) I hear a lot of healing and conciliatory language in Hillary’s concession speech. Trump should remember that, had Hillary won, he would be bankrupt and either dead or in prison within a year. He has to use the federal security and law enforcement services to make sure this entire Clinton network ends up in prison.

    map

    November 9, 2016 at 12:25 pm

  14. I’m sure Trump won the popular votes. There are more lumprenproletariat than SWProLes in America.

    JS

    November 9, 2016 at 12:35 pm

  15. The imported enemy parasite vote is enough to justify and vindicate the claim that the process is rigged. And womyn’s votes are illegitimate, too.

    Repeal the 19th! It can be done in 15-30 years. Alt. Right Media => deportations => hywytes regain nut sacks => social proof => womyns back to barefoot and pregnant as God intended.

    fakeemail

    November 9, 2016 at 12:52 pm

  16. This goes to show how important it is to keep the electoral college. Sometimes I even hear conservatives claim they want to get rid of it. They would be crazy to do so.

    Jay Fink

    November 9, 2016 at 1:35 pm

  17. isnt the popular vote skewed though because of illegitimate illegal voters? how many illegal immigrants voted in this election? trump didnt lose the popular vote by much.

    james n.s.w

    November 9, 2016 at 3:35 pm


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