The popular vote
Not all votes have been counted. The NY Times model predicts that HRC will win the popular vote by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points, and I certainly believe the model because the model proved to be extremely accurate last night predicting a win in Pennsylvania for Trump while also predicting that HRC would win New Hampshire.
This actually means the polls weren’t that far off. We didn’t see the big 6-point swing we saw with the Brexit vote. The RCP average on Tuesday morning had HRC ahead by 3.3 percentage points, so actual voting swung 2.7 points in Trump’s favor.
Many times during the last several months, some people talked in comments about the popular vote being different than the electoral count, and I always responded that if they don’t match, it would be in Trump’s favor.
The electoral count, for starters, favors whichever candidate does better in rural less-populated states. On top of that, you have California, the most populated state, which voted for HRC by a huge margin of 61.4% to 33.3%, while Trump won many swing states by rather slim margins, especially Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
We heard a lot about how increasing numbers of Hispanic voters would vote Democratic, and that did happen, but they were disproportionately voting in California.
I predict that liberals will not let this go and we will continually be hearing that Trump is the illegitimate president because he didn’t win the popular vote.