Lion of the Blogosphere

U.S. fertility rate at record low

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/health/united-states-fertility-rate.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fhealth

NY Times reports that U.S. fertility is at a record low. It has been especially dropping among teenagers and unmarried women, both of which are good signs. There are certain conservatives who insist that abortions and birth control lead to more babies, but that is clearly wrong.

A wise government would help these trends along, with free birth control and abortions, and public information campaigns against teen pregnancy like we had in New York City when Bloomberg was the mayor.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 5, 2017 at 9:14 am

Posted in Uncategorized

59 Responses

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  1. Considering that nations and races are always in a latent conflict, wise government pursues a policy that leads to an increase of its demographic to the optimal, while causing the opponents to decrease in numbers. You don’t want abortion and homosexuality in your camp, but it’s perfect for your enemy. This is very simple.

    Meanwhile, good news for the Jews: https://www.google.com/amp/www.newsweek.com/jewish-and-arab-fertility-rates-equal-first-time-israeli-history-521698%3Famp%3D1

    Yakov

    July 5, 2017 at 9:29 am

  2. “Yes, it’s below replacement level, but not dramatically so,” Dr. Brady said. “We have a high level of influx of immigrants that compensates for it.”

    Solution? More immigration.

    Mike Street Station

    July 5, 2017 at 9:42 am

    • The growth fanatics are delusional. A long term sustainable population of the USA is under 175mm. At over 300mm we are steadily mining down the soil, aquifers, minerals, and fish stocks. A population under 175mm is going to happen eventually either the easy way or the hard way.

      bobbybobbob

      July 5, 2017 at 11:24 am

      • More is not better. The future will be won by quality and not quantity.

        owentt

        July 5, 2017 at 2:14 pm

      • At a certain point quantity becomes quality.

        Yakov

        July 5, 2017 at 6:58 pm

      • Ridiculous. The future is ALWAYS won by quantity.

        Jimbo

        July 5, 2017 at 7:47 pm

      • Quality should have as much quantity as possible.

        destructure

        July 5, 2017 at 10:35 pm

      • “The future is ALWAYS won by quantity.”

        Gentile white American natives constitute somewhere around 75% of the US population and a very large proportion of that 75% are southern, mid-western, mountain state or southwestern whites. What percentage of national media outlets, Hollywood studios, over-the-top media suppliers or other meme and narrative generating entities do you imagine are controlled by that cohort? What percent of journalist are composed of that cohort? What percent of liberal arts professors are composed of that cohort? Bezos you say? A fellow raised by Spanish-Americans I believe. Look at our major media:

        1) NYT, owned by half-Episcopalian half-Jewish family and a Mexican former Lebanese;
        2) Facebook. Need I say;
        3) WPost. Owned by adoptee of Spanish family;
        4) Fox. Owned by Australian family.
        5) MSNBC. Finally a native American gentile.

        I’ve read that the group who gains entry to Harvard in the lowest ratio to qualifying members is prole and middle-class white gentiles. This has not been a half century in which white native gentiles have been winning.

        Curle

        July 6, 2017 at 12:21 am

  3. There is a real problem with the low birthrate, though. It is driven by EXTREMELY low fertility among well-educated white people, while the ignorant swarms of black and brown people continue to breed like rabbits. How long will it be before there are not enough taxpayers to support the welfare masses?

    Gerald B

    July 5, 2017 at 9:43 am

    • I thought I just pointed out that fertility for the “swarms” is declining faster.

    • Why do some in the HBD-sphere keep acting like American blacks are breeding like rabbits? With easy-to-use contraception, vasectomies, and abortions, most blacks can keep their number of births under control. Even though most blacks are born out of wedlock, their total fertility rate isn’t much higher than whites’. Although I think you do have a very dumb (IQ<80) underclass that's still breeding like crazy.

      GondwanaMan

      July 5, 2017 at 11:53 am

      • To clarify, I’m betting really low IQ blacks are still breeding fast, but college-educated aren’t breeding hardly at all. I don’t have the data right now but I’ve heard college-educated black women often don’t have kids.

        GondwanaMan

        July 5, 2017 at 3:59 pm

      • Even if NAMs only reproduce slightly above replacement levels, the fact of the matter is that if you’re popping kids out at 15-20 then your generational velocity will exceed high achieving whites where women often delay childbearing until late 20s or 30s.

        Panther of the Blogocube

        July 6, 2017 at 12:03 am

      • “To clarify, I’m betting really low IQ blacks are still breeding fast, but college-educated aren’t breeding hardly at all. I don’t have the data right now but I’ve heard college-educated black women often don’t have kids.”

        That sort of matches my personal observation. In the last office I worked at, I don’t think any of the 30 and under black women were married or had children. It was a different story for the 40 and above, but the rise in numbers of educated black females has lead to a shortage of “marriageable” men for them.

        Mike Street Station

        July 6, 2017 at 9:06 am

    • Plus you are leaving out the salutatory feature that is is Blue states that are in decline.

      We can establish civilization after all the ‘woke’ womens studies majors fufill their destiny

      Lion o' the Turambar

      July 5, 2017 at 2:22 pm

  4. Brace yourself for a lot of comments from people who want White people to engage in a war of the cradle with people of other races.

    Ed

    July 5, 2017 at 10:50 am

    • The “war” exists whether you engage in it or not.

      destructure

      July 5, 2017 at 11:05 am

      • The future belongs to those who show up for it.

        Lowe

        July 5, 2017 at 12:29 pm

  5. “There are certain conservatives who insist that abortions and birth control lead to more babies, but that is clearly wrong.”

    In 1940, the teen preg rate was 54 per 100K. It spiked in 1945 (after ww2 ended) peaking around 1957 at 94 per 100K. It then started a long slow decline… more than 15 years before Roe v Wade. In fact, the decline in teen pregs actually stalled in the 70’s after Roe v Wade passed and later increased peaking in the early 90’s at 61 per 100K. That’s actually higher than it was in 1940. But with a major difference.

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/29/why-is-the-teen-birth-rate-falling/

    “Back in 1960, most teen mothers were married – an estimated 15% of births to mothers ages 15-19 were to unmarried teens. Today, it has flipped: 89% of births are to unmarried mothers in that age group.”

    In conclusion, the decline in teen pregs began before Roe v Wade and stalled afterwards. It was also accompanied by a dramatic shift from married teen pregs to unmarried teen pregs. And while the decline may be credited to various causes such as the economy, abstinence and even higher use of birth control. the fact remains that it took a helluva long time (and sex education pushing birth control) to get there. Therefore, I don’t believe your comment is justified.

    destructure

    July 5, 2017 at 10:53 am

  6. Student loan debt depresses the fertility rate.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    July 5, 2017 at 11:03 am

    • I’m sure it does. Bernie had a solution for that.

      • Bernie’s solution was bollocks. The fertility rate is even lower in industrialized countries that have free university. The solution to low fertility is tax breaks and reduced student loan interest rates for having children.

        destructure

        July 5, 2017 at 12:33 pm

      • For the right demographic, obviously.

        Yakov

        July 5, 2017 at 1:24 pm

      • The real solution to infertility among productive natives is tossing out as many immigrants as you can, and ending the gibs, permanently.

        People have children when they can afford it. Student loan debt sucks, but it’s not the main event. Wage stagnation is due to the presence of foreign scabs, and the presence of a welfare state, sucking capital out of the free market. Not due to student loans.

        Unless we get a real strongman, who is willing to do those things, our society is over within a few generations. Best case we are colonized by East Asians. Maybe Trump is that strongman, but I doubt it.

        Lowe

        July 5, 2017 at 1:42 pm

    • It would be a lot easier for everybody (except certain Democratic Party interest groups) if we just allowed businesses to hand out IQ tests to job applicants as a barrier to entry, instead of the insanely expensive college degrees most decent jobs require now. Go ahead and dole out affirmative action bonus points where politics requires, because who cares at this point.

      The system we have now is ruinous to young lives, and without any necessity, because few people work in jobs that truly require a 4-year college education to perform well at.

      Richard

      July 5, 2017 at 11:49 am

    • What evidence do you have (Lowe) that the welfare state is “sucking capital out of the free market.” American has absolutely no lack of capital, it has a lack of viable projects that will provide a steady return on that capital. That’s what my work experience has taught me.

  7. You should have linked the raw data the NYT article was based on, it has interesting racial breakdowns.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/report002.pdf

    In particular “Table 2. Births, by race and Hispanic origin of mother: United States, each state and territory, provisional 2016” shows exactly how many children of each race were born in every state.

    Interestingly, the “white” category for the nation as a whole constituted slightly more than 52% of births in 2016 after being less than 50% in the previous few years. I’m curious whether this inversion of the previous pattern reflects the fecundity differential between minorities and whites shrinking, or simply an increase in the MENA population. At any rate, a not insignificant chunk of the “hispanic” births are actually to multi generational Spanish-Americans or Cubans so the genetically and phenotypically “white” births are probably not far from 60% of the total.

    sfd@asf.com

    July 5, 2017 at 11:45 am

  8. The only large families that I see regularly belong to Mexicans and Somalis.

    Meanwhile, I have really begun to notice the massive downward class-drift among a huge swath of whites. The respectable middle class is disappearing. Countless older whites who raised their children in intact families have grandchildren in (very) broken families.

    SQ

    July 5, 2017 at 11:53 am

    • Yes, most Whites in America don’t deserve any primacy, simply because they have become willfully ignorant, with a very little interest in educational pursuits, only if benefits them in a monetary way similar to what East Asians believe. The only difference, it becomes dangerous when you have a demographic who’ve historically have been progressive from their hedonism, but now just only pleasure seeking without any meaning.

      JS

      July 5, 2017 at 7:49 pm

    • I see this all the time working as a psychiatrist. When I see a new patient, I take a detailed social history, which entails asking them about their families. I’ve seen numerous late-middle-aged people who seem solidly middle class, who have a twentysomething daughter who got pregnant out of wedlock by some lowlife. Or sometimes it’s said daughter who’s my patient.. The most recent one was a twentysomething white suburban schoolteacher who had just earned her master’s degree, who got knocked up by some guy (who of course already had a kid by some other girl) she’d only been “dating” for 2 months, rushed into a shotgun wedding, whereupon he became “abusive” (i.e., the same traits that made him attractive at first were suddenly undesirable now that she needed him to be a steady dad) and she divorced him and obtained a restraining order. Fifty years ago, in a society still dominated by traditional morality, this girl would likely never have gone down that road because of the strong taboo against premarital sex.

      Also, in keeping with Lion’s OP, I can’t think of a time I’ve seen one of these supposed “welfare queens.” It’s very rare for anyone, including poor black inner-city women, to tell me they have more than 2-3 kids.

      Hermes

      July 5, 2017 at 10:53 pm

  9. The surest solution to low fertility is raising the status of men and lowering it of women. Or put another way, when women are, in a broad sense with exceptions, economically dependent upon the men in their lives, birth rates go up and stay up.

    Andrew E.

    July 5, 2017 at 3:33 pm

    • This won’t happen.

      How can a woman be attracted to a man displaced by a smelly indian?

      jjbees

      July 5, 2017 at 6:19 pm

      • Agreed. And one of many ways to raise he status of white men, which was what we want here in America, is to close the borders and begin moving the immigrants out with incentives. Scaling the welfare state way back would make a big difference with both the status problem and the immigrant problem.

        AndrewE

        July 5, 2017 at 7:54 pm

      • White women are generally not attracted to STEM guys regardless. Status comes from occupation and income.

        JS

        July 5, 2017 at 9:33 pm

      • What happens for guys replaced by machinery? In 10 years from now, we’re going to start having a lot of unemployed cabbies and truck drivers. You’ve got that long to figure something out.

    • Nobody ever seems to entertain the idea that low fertility is entirely appropriate and biologically interesting. It seems that most non-blacks and non-indians instinctively recognize when the land is full and over-burdened and stop pumping out excess kids. The native white birthrate in America leveled out to replacement rates at arguably the moment in the 70s when the land was full up. Japanese birthrates declined to far below replacement as their more extreme population overshoot became apparent. A lot of the overshoot was due to being suddenly stripped of their empire in the 40s.

      Low birthrates and sub-replacement birthrates in most of the world are a good thing, as we are dealing with obvious ecological popuation overshoot in even the richest countries. From a darwinian perspective this is rather surprising. I doubt it fits the models, but it’s the obvious explanation. The stuff about female status seems like ad-hoc bullshit to me. My better ad-hoc bullshit is that people subconsciously sense crowding and how healthy the surrounding ecology is and constrain fertility accordingly.

      bobbybobbob

      July 5, 2017 at 7:37 pm

      • Surprisingly high fractions of both men and women went off into the monasteries and nunneries in Europe for centuries, I believe up to a fifth of both sexes at some points. Clearly not “selfish gene” optimal, but highly indicative of a set of instincts to avoid overshoot and die-off events. Much of the civilized world maintained sustainable populations without relying on famines and plagues and wars to keep it that way.

        We are in a weird sort of cultural hang-over period where an unprecedented century long burst of technological inventions and abundant cheap fossil fuels has a lot of people oblivious to the limits. Replacement fertility rates were very normal. Killing invaders was very normal. We’re going to wind up back at that sort of arrangement. Not breeding to win elections.

        bobbybobbob

        July 5, 2017 at 8:10 pm

      • Take a drive through America, and not just the coasts. Vast stretches of habitable, empty land.

        Panther of the Blogocube

        July 6, 2017 at 12:09 am

      • Land with no jobs. The days when you could just farm the land are long gone.

  10. Women working/voting was the beginning of all this and still the main factor.

    fakeemail

    July 5, 2017 at 3:48 pm

  11. $10,000 in cash to every welfare mom who will have her tubes irreversibly tied. This would solve all of our problems.

    B.T.D.T.

    July 5, 2017 at 5:49 pm

  12. The rent’s too high. Competent young white people can’t afford to have children. The majority of young white couples in my neighborhood are childless, both work, and share a studio apartment. In one case, my next door neighbors had screaming fights about having a baby. The woman wanted to, the man didn’t. The woman won. After the baby, they moved to a slightly bigger apartment in the same apartment complex. I occasionally pass the young man pushing the stroller, completely ignoring his child, staring at his cell phone.

    Also: artificial wombs are happening. Unfortunately, the elites will make sure they’re used for more diversity.

    ketzel

    July 5, 2017 at 6:00 pm

    • With both working they should be able to afford more then a studio. Where is this place?

      Yakov

      July 5, 2017 at 7:35 pm

      • Yes, if they lived in the Coney Island/ Brighton Beach Area and commute to work Manhattan, they would not pay so much in rent and have enough money saved up to have children. Better, maybe the man should have taken up a trade that pays more than office work, and perhaps not pay any taxes on his salary, if it was all in cash.

        JS

        July 5, 2017 at 9:28 pm

      • @JS, you keep restating the obvious. Yes, it’s Darwin out there, you know. And you gotta do everything and anything to survive, procreate and prosper or you are a dinosaur. Nothing else matters. All these laws, taxes, blah-blah-blah are meaningless when you are being put into what amounts to a genocidal situation. Yeah, like a dinosaur paying taxes on the way to the slaughter house. Who cares about taxes if they butcher you? It’s a war, man. Who cares about taxes in a war? These taxes and artificial shortages and price imbalances are there to exterminate you. This should be very simple to comprehend. I’m not going to regurgitate these elementary arguments. Can you process this information already?

        Like you can’t rent or buy a normal place, you can’t afford to have kids, there are no normal schools for them anyway, the media brainwashes everyone with trash and stupid video games and smart phone this and smart gaget that. And on top of all this go pay taxes now? You are evolutionary unfit for survival, you are a walking corpse, mate. We can stick a fork into you.

        Yakov

        July 6, 2017 at 9:05 am

    • Young people, by and large, have never been able to afford having children. In years past, they did it anyway, and found a way, when it was a priority.

      B.T.D.T.

      July 5, 2017 at 7:45 pm

      • It suddenly becomes more of a priority when women have more need for a male provider, and are eager to keep one. Strange, that.

        Panther of the Blogocube

        July 6, 2017 at 12:11 am

    • “Competent young white people can’t afford to have children. “

      Then they should get out of new york. Why would anyone want to live where they can’t afford to live? I just don’t understand you people. New York is only one city. And it’s not even a good one. Just leave.

      destructure

      July 5, 2017 at 11:28 pm

      • “Why would anyone want to live where they can’t afford to live?”

        People will do ANYTHING if it’s perceived to be higher status. It’s human nature.

      • Oh yeah, a lot of White people think NYC is a great place to live, because their hometowns are unremarkable.

        America is geographically unequal, where a universal basic income would not be implemented, because it would cause mayhem and fighting as to who gets to live in NYC.

        White transplants who move to Manhattan, often vehemently support the idea that any remaining public housing should be crushed and its NAM residents should be displaced. Proles from greater America show resentment for NAMs who live in NYC who get to access culture and all of its wonderful amenities (although many of them do not take this opportunity, because they are either too poor or they dislike associating with White people).

        JS

        July 6, 2017 at 12:39 am

      • Lol. Loads of kids do a three year stint in NYC and figure out it’s retarded and leave. That’s really the norm. Why do you think the decrepit established NYC types are so hell bent on importing foreigners to work and also buy the condos?

        bobbybobbob

        July 6, 2017 at 12:47 am

      • I wish I could get out! There is this Jew, Larry Gardner, who put out a little book on duct installation. So he lives in Midwest and just installs new HVAC systems in one family residential houses. He works mostly by himself because this type of installation can be done mostly alone. I envy this guy’s life. This is nice! No pressure, no city, no meshugasen, everything is reasonable and normal. I can’t do it, though. Stuck here for now.

        Yakov

        July 6, 2017 at 10:36 am

      • Leon — That’s pretty shallow.
        *
        JS — There’s a lot to be said for living someplace unremarkable.
        *
        bobbybobbob — NYPost recently had an article on that.
        http://nypost.com/2017/04/01/people-are-fleeing-new-york-at-an-alarming-rate/
        *
        Yakov — I imagine that your children and their families are there. It would be hard to uproot and leave them behind. I know a jewish guy who married out. His parents were giving him so much grief he had to get away from them before they wrecked his marriage. He moved to his wife’s town in the Ozarks. Every time I saw him he told me how much he loved it there.

        destructure

        July 6, 2017 at 1:58 pm


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