Lion of the Blogosphere

How long will the shutdown go on

I think a long time.

The Democrats HATE Trump too much to give in.

And Republicans have experience with government shutdowns and won’t cave in so readily.

There won’t be a resolution until it becomes apparent which side the public is blaming for the shutdown. This is why it’s very important for Republicans to spread the message that “the Democrats are shutting down the government in order to give amnesty to illegal aliens, but even so the President and Republican were will to make a deal in return for programs that would guarantee that our immigration laws would be enforced in the future and that AMERICAN WORKERS are protected from competition from immigrants. The Wall, E-Verify, ending chain migration, and ending the visa lottery, all programs that would benefit workers, keep out criminal gang members, and save us money in the long run.”

Trump’s tweet this morning is OK, but Trump never mentions jobs when he talks about immigration, for him it has always been about law and order. Remember my analysis of this Republican debate.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 21, 2018 at EST am

Posted in Immigration

22 Responses

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  1. To reinforce your point, Remember what Bubba said “It’s the Economy!! Stupid!!!”

    Anon

    January 21, 2018 at EST am

  2. They did the shutdown on a weekend. One of the votes in the Senate against the CR was from McConnell. The Majority Leader votes against his own resolution because under Senate rules, it gives him the chance to call a re-vote later on the same resolution. McConnell thinks he can call a re-vote and win it shortly.

    By shutting down on a weekend and then doing the deal and getting a new vote on Monday, government employees are furloughed for exactly one day and its all optics.

    They are doing this because both the Reds and the Blues get to rally their respective bases and the Blues are showing standing up to Trump over immigration. The Democratic Senators voting in favor of the CR are from states Trump carried heavily and “standing up to Trump” hurts them politically, but the rest have done it just enough to get the campaign contributions continuing to flow. It turns out these things have no lasting political effect once they are resolved quickly (see recent 538.com article looking at the past ones).

    A good deal of federal politics is pretty much pro-wrestling. You pay too much attention to it.

    The problem with these stunts is that every time they happen they provide more evidence that the US federal government is a joke and the US credit rating is endangered. But the pols love doing them.

    Anyway, its Sunday and I will go on record here in predicting its over on Monday. If not, sometime next week. Also, as you noted in other posts, while there are people in the Trump Administration serious about curbing immigration they may not include Trump himself, so the shutdown also gives them political cover to sell their own base down the river if they want to. Same goes with the Donks of course.

    Ed

    January 21, 2018 at EST am

    • This is not theater. The Republicans absolutely did not want this shutdown, neither do some Dems. The Dems won’t cave until it sinks in to them that the Republicans won’t cave, which is probably a month or so away.

      This could go on past the midterms, although I don’t think it will.

      Otis the Sweaty

      January 21, 2018 at EST pm

  3. “There won’t be a resolution until it becomes apparent which side the public is blaming for the shutdown.”

    The problem I see with this is that the public is very much fractured. Republicans, especially those who support Donald Trump, will correctly perceive that the MSM news outlets are aggressively attempting to paint them as the bad guys. Moreover, they have their own news sources to go to which will reinforce their beliefs.

    To make matters worse, a lot of people are going to perceive this confrontation as an attempt to relitigate the presidential election. So there is a lot of pressure on both sides not to give in.

    Even if credible evidence emerges that the public is siding with the Democrats, I could easily see Trump and his crew dismissing it as fake news. After all, look what happened with the presidential election.

    So as I mentioned in the last thread, I could easily see this getting very ugly.

    fortaleza84

    January 21, 2018 at EST am

  4. If republicans decide to stop the qualified majority for debt, by a majority vote , as for scotus, they have to agree among each other (wich is not easy but is an internal matter )

    Bruno

    January 21, 2018 at EST pm

  5. The smart play for Trump is to hang tough and force the Senate Republicans to end the filibuster. This will take the budget weapon out of the Democrats hands and also make it easier to pass all sorts of good legislation. As long as you need 60 votes for most things in the Senate, Trump will not be able to pass his agenda. They just need 50 votes + the VP to end the filibuster. McCain will croak soon and his replacement will be an improvement, whoever it is. There’s still a few RINOS like Flake, Corker etc. to contend with but if the government is shut down for 2 months and Mitch McConnell applies pressure they will cave.
    Also, once Repubs have a credible threat to end the filibuster, the red state Dem senators who are up for reelection in 2018 would probably decide to fund the government since they can claim it as a big victory and it will happen without them anyway if they don’t.

    JimBonobo

    January 21, 2018 at EST pm

  6. I think a long time.

    There’s no problem with that.

    The longer Trump lets them marinate in their own juices the worse public relations becomes for the Democrats.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    January 21, 2018 at EST pm

  7. Lindsey’s butthurt is neverending:

    IHTG

    January 21, 2018 at EST pm

    • given graham is from SC there is only one explanation for his behavior. he is a homosexual.

      ian smith

      January 21, 2018 at EST pm

    • If ol’ Lindsay is “butthurt”, well that’s easily explained

      driveallnight

      January 22, 2018 at EST am

  8. “The public” has a generalized dissatisfaction with the government shutdown. If you are in a Democrat area, you’ll blame the Republicans. If in a Republican area, you’ll blame the Democrats. It’s really a wash. Most of the public loathes Congress but has no real solution. It just keeps chugging along.

    I do think “the public” will eventually tire of this and blame the President, because the buck stops in the Oval Office and it will look as though the President has lost control.

    I won’t blame this on the media, as much as we all know the media hate Trump and want to see a juicy impeachment. “The public” however stupid has a collective cunning and won’t be taken in by this. They do have a reasonable expectation that a leader will lead.

    gothamette

    January 21, 2018 at EST pm

  9. thus far the longest shutdowns were in 95 and 13. neither lasted a month.

    i hope this one goes on until november. then there will be victory or a defeat which assures that trump came too late and the US is lost forever. his higher IQ supporters will leave the US or encourage their children to leave.

    those whites who could have abandoned ZA and ZIM.

    ian smith

    January 21, 2018 at EST pm

    • Those who intend to pack their bags and leave, should make the move soon before those nations get inundated with refugee meriproles. Where will they go?

      JS

      January 21, 2018 at EST pm

    • Meriprolestan has ~ 225 Million Whites, and let’s say 25% of that population decides to leave, which is still in the millions. No nation cannot absorb people in any million amount.

      JS

      January 21, 2018 at EST pm

      • No nation cannot absorb people in any million amount.

        JS

        January 21, 2018 at EST pm

  10. LA Times, 01/19/18 – Trump appointing judges at rapid pace

    http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-na-pol-trump-federal-judiciary/

    One year into his presidency, Donald Trump is among the most successful presidents when it comes to appointing federal judges. Trump has spent his first year rapidly filling Article III judgeships at Supreme, appellate and District Court levels.

    A Times data analysis found Trump is ranked No. 6 of 19 presidents appointing the highest number of federal judges in their first year.

    “It’s one area where the administration has really been successful, so understanding what’s happening is important,” said University of Georgia law professor Susan Brodie Haire.

    Another reason is a little bit of political warfare. Republican senators blocked 36 judicial nominations in President Obama’s first five years, according to Politifact. The best-known nominee was Judge Merrick Garland, chosen to replace the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia…

    Even with Trump’s rapid clip, there are more than 140 vacancies in the federal judiciary awaiting appointments.

    Since taking office, Trump has appointed 12 circuit court judges – the second highest rate among any president since 1912, when the circuit court system was reformed…

    Trump had appointed 23 Article III judges as of Jan. 17. Most of them replaced judges appointed by a Republican president; six replaced judges appointed by a Democrat…

    Trump made 66 nominations in his first year… Obama nominated 500 nominations and Bush 467 during their administrations…

    Of the 23 confirmed judges, only nine have previous judicial experience and most have backgrounds in litigation in either private practice or government.

    “There is no doubt that his nominees are generally conservative,” said Columbia Law School professor Jamal Greene…

    E. Rekshun

    January 21, 2018 at EST pm

  11. The maximum any formidable dealer could achieve as for immigration with a senate who is C- for Republican and F- for Democrats, and a House of
    R who is C for Republican and F for Democrat , with a block of anti migration of max 4% in senate and 25% in the House is a C, with an A administration and a A+ DOJ, would be a C+ policy …. the people like Ann Coulter are putting unrealistic expectation for Trump because the legislative branch is still pro immigration . That’s obvious :

    https://www.numbersusa.com/content/my/tools/grades/list/0/CONGRESS/US/A/Name/Active#tabset-1

    Bruno

    January 22, 2018 at EST am

  12. Graham : F-
    Gardner : F-
    Flake : D
    Murkowski : F-
    Alexander : F-
    Collins : F-
    Rounds : C-

    The 3 Democrats Bennet, Durbin and Menendez are F-.

    —> that is the group representing the Republican side on talks about immigration . All democrats are F-. So 80% of the group are absolute pro immigration people . No one is anti – immigration. What can anybody expect ?

    Bruno

    January 22, 2018 at EST am


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