Lion of the Blogosphere

Never come to my blog for stock advice

Another bad day for stock prices. This post could have been me capitulating to the bull market.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

Posted in Investments

57 Responses

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  1. True that. But some commenter do give sensible advice, if you know what I mean.

    Yakov

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

    • And the advice today is: don’t panic. Short term market girations are noise and buying opportunity.

      Yakov

      February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

      • Institution of Russian Orthodox “Elders” revived at about the same time institution of Hassidic rebbes began. Interesting, hunh? (Rereading Brothers Karamazov — remember Zosima?)

        Garr

        February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

      • Jim Cramer thinks this is a result of funds that bank on volatility.

        gothamette

        February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

      • @Garr

        Vaguely.

        Yakov

        February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

      • Yakov, I really need summer work. Maybe you’ll need extra help this summer?

        Garr

        February 9, 2018 at EDT am

      • Remember, I don’t have my own company. But if you come to the corner of Fort Hamilton and 36st by 7:00 am, you will find something.

        Yakov

        February 9, 2018 at EDT am

      • Do you even remember 1929? Stock market fluctuations are one thing, but roller coaster market variations are 1929 bad. Somebody asked John D. Rockefeller how he always made money on the Stock Market.
        He said, “By getting out too early.”

        Joshua Sinistar (@Joshua06716)

        February 11, 2018 at EDT am

  2. I’m infuriated at myself. I was thinking of unloading two weeks ago but was too lazy to do so.

    F me.

    gothamette

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

    • Look at the picture of the Time Mag cover featuring Black Negro linked at Drudge — that guy’s typical downward-scowling rapper-visage immediately arouses a very violent reaction in me; I want to put my fist through his fucking stupid nasty goblin-face; I want to beat him to a pulp. Thanks, Marvel faggots; you’re doing wonders for “race relations.”
      Here’s the linked article. You have to scroll down (or up or whatever) to see the cover-picture I’m referring to, but the pictures of the sullen rapper at the top elicit the same kind of response, at a lower degree of intensity.
      I want The Polar Bear to smack this spandex-gym-gigolo’s head off in a spectacularly bloody manner.
      http://time.com/black-panther/

      Garr

      February 9, 2018 at EDT am

      • This being the internet, I don’t know if you are joking or not, but whatever, I saw the cover already, won’t click on it because….I HAD THE SAME REACTION.

        This is a serious topic, and thus will probably be passed over by Lion in his neverending quest to focus on the most inconsequential ephemera of Star Trek and cable series that will be forgotten as soon as they are over (Mad Men anyone?), so let’s discuss it here.

        No normal human being can look at faces like that, suffused with contempt and hostility, and not want to punch them. This is what the degenerate Hollywood factory is now selling as a “star.” Compare and contrast with this:

        https://tinyurl.com/ydbye8y7

        Complete societal degeneracy, and don’t anyone tell me that it’s not. It is pure and utter decay.

        gothamette

        February 9, 2018 at EDT am

      • You also have problems.

        JayMan

        February 10, 2018 at EDT pm

      • More Hollywood. My thoughts on Uma Thurman and Gal Gadot.

        Uma Thurman, “Tarantino’s muse,” is now engaged in a desperate attempt to salvage her reputation. She recently sat down with Maureen Dowd, official court chronicler of middle-class white unwoke feminism, for a long interview in which she told her tale of woe at the hands of the beasts Weinstein and Tarantino. Never mind she made seven movies for the former and I think four for the latter and went out with Weinstein’s Italian procurer for several years. Will it work? I don’t know.

        Gal Gadot is being put thru the Hollywood sausage factory and is now saying ridiculous things at awards ceremonies. She was given some dummy publicity award and claimed that Patti Jenkins told her a friend’s three-year-old son told her that he wants to grow up to be Wonder Woman.

        So now a reasonably grounded Israeli woman is spouting contemporary feminist shit at awards shows. Let’s try the mass feminization program on Israeli men. What will happen to their army after the country goes through transgenderization?

        Hollywood never knew what to do with Sophia Loren. They put her in stupid movies where all she did was act like a gorgeous Italian bimbo. She had to go back home to prove her chops as an actress. But was she ever forced to say nonsense like the above? No.

        Hollywood will ruin Gal Gadot. It’s eating her up and spitting her out in real time. Sad!

        gothamette

        February 9, 2018 at EDT am

      • Not essentially joking, just humorously elaborating/exaggerating a little.
        The picture you offer for contrast makes the point — about the contrast — well. And I’m sure there are similar pictures of friendly, thoughtful-looking actors of Subsaharan descent also.
        As for Gadot — yes, those party-line things she says are disappointing, but I really don’t blame women for anything they do, I blame the men they belong to. Her husband and/or father shouldn’t be letting her say things like this; it shames them.

        Garr

        February 9, 2018 at EDT pm

      • @Garr:

        If Gal wants to make it in Hollywood she’s gotta say these things. She doesn’t have a home film industry that she can escape to as Loren did, with the great Italian directors making better movies than Hollywood. All she has is Hollywood. She and her husband probably laugh at the shit Americans believe. Combat instructor indeed! She probably gave desk soldiers aerobics classes.

        The #Metoo movement is a creation of CAA agency. Rose McGowan is insane, but she lets spill a lot of interesting beans. When CAA says you have to take part in something, you do.

        gothamette

        February 9, 2018 at EDT pm

      • You got problems dude.

        JayMan

        February 10, 2018 at EDT pm

    • One very sound approach is never to sell shares at all. I would have done a lot better in the markets over the past 20 years if I had simply followed this approach. But old habits die hard, so what I often do is place a sell order with my electronic broker on the day that I buy the shares. For example, I bought 1000 shares of Nokia some months ago at 4.90, then placed the sell order at 5.25 that same day. It was activated a few days ago when the company reported strong earnings.

      I am buying shares this week, mainly in funds as I try to avoid stock picking for the most part as I think it is prole. All the oil stuff is way down, AMLP, IXC. This is not intended as stock market advice, just something to think about.

      I am also going to buy Chipotle down to zero. I always buy the shares when it falls by 50 points, so I have just picked up 10 more at 260. I hope to sell these at 310, should we ever see that level again.

      The Shepherd

      February 9, 2018 at EDT am

      • Or another approach is to follow several stocks so well that you have internalized their ups and downs and get a feel (yes, feel) as to how low they go and how high.

        Example: MO which hasn’t gone below $63 in years (look it up) and never goes above $74. It’s at $63.60 now. Yes, I own it and yes, I was thinking of selling at $73 but didn’t.

        I’m not paying attention to the market for the next two weeks. No point.

        gothamette

        February 9, 2018 at EDT pm

  3. Well, IRBT, despite having a terrible day (down 30%), is still way up from when you were writing about it several years ago. And I recall reading somewhere or other about HBD investing: gene-editing companies like CRSP and EDIT, which one day could contribute to enhancing human biodiversity or mitigating its pitfalls, have been doing well lately. I have been too timid to buy them, though.

    My only good performer today has been HMNY, majority owner of MoviePass, which I don’t use, but feel like it could be something. Have you heard of it?

    Genserico

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

  4. no worries. I only have an index fund. I learned many years ago I was an incompetent stock picker. I don’t have any crypto-currencies either, and I’m still waiting to see if that was incompetent or brilliant.

    Jack Cade

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

    • One could do a lot worse than a low-cost/no-load index fund. If you know you’re not a good stock picker and don’t have time to learn then it’s a very smart choice. I do most of my own investing and have done well. Still, I always have some parked in the Vanguard 500.

      destructure

      February 9, 2018 at EDT am

  5. Since we’re talking money, maybe someone here who’s knowledgeable about money market funds could help clear up a mystery for me. Several years after my Dad died, I received a notice from the state unclaimed property fund that Dreyfus had turned over the shares in his money fund to the state. We submitted the claim and the State notified us that it was approved. But then we heard nothing for over four years. Two weeks ago, we get a check in the mail. The amount of the check is only 91% of the value of the fund if each share was worth $1.00. I checked the history of the fund and it never broke the buck. Would the 9% shortfall represent a termination fee exacted by tbe fund upon turning it over to the State? That would seem high. Thanks.

    vipltd

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

    • There’s no way to know the answer to this without seeing some kind of itemized statement, but it sounds like you don’t need a financial person but instead a lawyer.

      Two in the Bush

      February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

      • “… but it sounds like you don’t need a financial person but instead a lawyer.”

        In my opinion a lawyer would be premature at this point. You can probably figure out what happened by making a couple of phone calls. Then you can decide if you want to get a lawyer involved. Lawyers should generally be a last resort.

        James B. Shearer

        February 9, 2018 at EDT pm

    • If the shares were held with a broker the broker could have been charging some sort of annual fee (like $50-$100) for several years before turning the shares over to the state.

      James B. Shearer

      February 9, 2018 at EDT pm

  6. This is a normal correction. No big deal. Buy!

    Two in the Bush

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

    • Jim Cramer sez it’s meddling & not a normal correction. He’s right some times.

      Anyway what I want to know is this: in a “correction” lots of wealth gets wiped out. So where does the wealth come from to push up stocks again??

      gothamette

      February 9, 2018 at EDT am

      • ‘in a “correction” lots of wealth gets wiped out.’

        No. In a correction, wealth is transferred TO the people and institutions that sell at or near the top FROM the suckers who cash out late or try to “buy the dip” (i.e., profit from volatility). The latter folks don’t lose much because they cash out rapidly, trying to get a quick small profit or at worst suffer a small loss.

        After cashing out near the top, the big boys wait til the stocks slide to a stable and underpriced level, then use their cash-out wealth to buy the stocks back on the cheap. This is called profit-taking.

        Unless you’re an insider, you never know when there will be a big manufactured pump-and-dump operation like we’re seeing now. Just like Vegas, the game is rigged against Joe Six Pack.

        hard9bf

        February 9, 2018 at EDT pm

  7. The gold futures market is a leading indicator in interest rate hikes.

    Gold started at 1219 on December 13 and skyrocketed 40 points on the first day. Gold has been steadily increasing since then. This means that the demand for dollar liquidity was dropping: people would rather hold gold than dollars at the margin.

    All of this coincided with the Fed threatening rate hikes going forward. Even with Powell as the Fed chair, the rest of the Reserve Board is still very hawkish.

    map

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

  8. “I should point out my choice is between working in Manhattan and being retired. No other company on the planet wants to hire me for a decent salary. Employers classify me in the “loser” category.”

    It seems to me like a lot of Gen X people are now heading into this situation, sort of fizzled out in the workplace. Great if retiring early is a realistic option for you.

    R P

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

  9. Oswald Spengler

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

    • The only silver lining from the Gremlin series was Phoebe Cates.

      JS

      February 9, 2018 at EDT am

  10. You should not have much stocks now. I unloaded 10% of my 401K in high risk international fund last week. My 401k is about 10 % stocks in some generic retirement 2055 fund, 10% mostly corporate bonds, 80% cash at this time and I am buying stocks slowly.

    My Two Cents

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

    • You aren’t likely to time the market even over a short period of time. Many tried and failed. As of today I’m fully invested except for a $20,000 cash position.

      Yakov

      February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

      • I did it in 2008. Sold all stock, moved them to TIPS for some time. That was successful. Wasn’t it? At the time some thought I was crazy and some would tell me that markets are efficient and impossible to time. I was just reading every Business Week and every other article would say credit crunch was coming because of housing bubble etc.. Now I know that bitcoin bubble had burst, I also know that stock market is a bubble. Is it that difficult to make decision to sell stock?

        My Two Cents

        February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

      • I can’t argue with success. Good for you.

        Yakov

        February 9, 2018 at EDT am

    • I’m one of those unlucky expats who can’t really invest due to regulations, so I have roughly four years’ pre-tax salary sitting in the bank steadily being destroyed by the inflationist policies of central banks.

      I own my apartment (not in my native NYC, unfortunately; that is a fading dream) and I have some cryptocurrency too — the two extremes in risk! Still, I’d be much happier if I could own index funds and have a 401k or other retirement plan like regular “strivers” do.

      Kyo

      February 9, 2018 at EDT am

  11. Stock market investors are ignorant schmucks.
    Maybe we will see them jumping out of windows on Wall Street.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

  12. You could have suggested your readers use Portfolio Armor.

    Dave Pinsen

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

  13. Stock market gyrations should be relevant news to a small pool of knowledgeable investors and speculators. Most people should be totally uninterested and disconnected.

    Andrew E.

    February 8, 2018 at EDT pm

  14. If you had bought BP shares one month after the oil spill – when they were in freefall – you would have made 65% profit in the following 12 months.
    If you had bought Halliburton you would have made 120% profit…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-spill-bp-investors/analysis-why-smart-investors-made-money-on-the-bp-oil-spill-idUSTRE73G1Q820110417

    Dr Hook

    February 9, 2018 at EDT am

  15. Immigration restriction by executive fiat! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-services-exclusive/exclusive-trump-administration-may-target-immigrants-who-use-food-aid-other-benefits-idUSKBN1FS2ZK

    “Several immigrant advocates and current and former U.S. officials said the proposed rules could advance the administration’s goals without changing U.S. law, by effectively barring lower- and middle-income people from immigrating.

    “The big picture here is the administration is trying to accomplish by regulation the substantive changes to immigration law that it has proposed be enacted by statute,” said Barbara Strack, a career DHS official who retired in January and helped draft the 1999 rules.”

    IHTG

    February 9, 2018 at EDT am

  16. A few years ago I recommended you buy some bitcoin, you told me it was a Ponzi scheme. Now, bitcoin might very well still fail, but a new bull run like last year was entirely predictable.

    You’re a *very* smart dude, and I listen to your views to my advantage, but it wouldn’t hurt if you’d listen to other people as well sometimes.

    Maciano

    February 9, 2018 at EDT am

    • There’s a massive amount of noise, it’s impossible to pick out the good advice from the bad.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 9, 2018 at EDT am

  17. J. P. Morgan, who probably knew more about the stock market than anyone else, when asked for advice about it, always replied, “The stock market will fluctuate.” Amen.

    Black Death

    February 9, 2018 at EDT am

  18. I read the “Warren Buffett Portfolio.” Seemed to offer some solid advice on investing.

    What does everyone here read for investing advice?

    Ivanthegrozny

    February 9, 2018 at EDT am

    • Lionoftheblogosphere
      James Altucher
      The Millennial Investing Report

      HuffPost Reading Diversity Loving SJW

      February 9, 2018 at EDT pm

      • Do not read James. I believe he is mentally ill, something like bipolar. If he is in wrong phase, the advice will be bad.

        My Two Cents

        February 9, 2018 at EDT pm

      • James Altucher, the “crypto genius”?

        It’s hard to believe he had an FT column at one point. A shanda fur die goyim.

        Dave Pinsen

        February 9, 2018 at EDT pm

      • LOL. Altuchus I call him. He’s very entertaining.

        Jim Cramer OTOH actually does know a thing or two about the market & economics, although I think his actual stock picks are BS, like everyone else’s. But on fundamentals, he’s sound. Do you want examples, Dave?

        I will give them. He was screaming bloody murder during the Washington Mutual melt down DON’T BUY. People were actually buying the stupid stock, thinking that “the government will step in and I’ll make money off this.” The govt didn’t step in and they lost money. I might have been one of those assholes but I listened to Jim and saved my money.

        Then when George Bush the Younger was seriously talking of privatizing Social Security, Cramer was against that because as he said, paraphrasing, most people don’t know the diff between a stock and a bond, they will buy whatever is hot, they will get wiped out and we will end up with a lot of aging idiots on welfare or on the streets. He was in favor of Soc Sec reform but not by privatizing.

        Ever since then I had a soft spot in my heart for the guy. He’s not a fraud the way Altuchus is.

        gothamette

        February 10, 2018 at EDT am

      • There is a Nightly Business Report on PBS in the NYC area. They are good. But as always – do your research.

        “If I won’t hold a stock in 10 years, I won’t hold it for 10 minutes.” Buffett

        gothamette

        February 10, 2018 at EDT am

  19. Don’t sell yourself short. One should not come to your blog for any advice whatsoever. I do enjoy it though!

    Heyoka

    February 9, 2018 at EDT am

  20. Not looking at my 401k for a while.

    I’m no economist. But how healthy was it to have the market go up and up and up with, basically, a zero percent interest rate?

    SWPL2

    February 9, 2018 at EDT am

  21. Thanks. U cleared up my confusion.

    gothamette

    February 10, 2018 at EDT am

  22. Lion: whaddya make of Mattis breaking w/Trump on deporting “Dreamers” in the US military? I’m hoping this was coordinated beforehand and doesn’t rep. a true break. I think it was.

    gothamette

    February 10, 2018 at EDT am


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