Lion of the Blogosphere

Election in Ohio

with 22 comments

The Republican won. But barely, in a district that Trump won by 11 points.

It seems that the election was a referendum on Trump rather than a normal pre-Trump election of a Republican running against a Democratic. Prole whites and rural whites support Trump, while college-educated whites who traditionally voted Republican have moved even more into the Democratic Party than in the 2016 presidential election.

Even though the Trump tax cuts were very good for the rich, there was zero benefit at the voting booths from the tax cuts. The wealthier Republicans switched over to the Democratic Party.

I think that there’s a CNN effect. Republicans switching over to Democrats are the types of Republicans who watch CNN, and the 24/7 bashing of Trump for two straight years has had an effect. I think there has been denial among Trump supporters that CNN’s biased reporting is swaying some people against Trump.

Meanwhile, prole whites are not reliable voters. They just didn’t turn out.

It should be pointed out that the anti-Trump traitor Republican governor Kasich never supported Balderson because Balderson refused to denounce Trump, until he finally gave Balderson a half-hearted endorsement less than two weeks ago.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 8, 2018 at EDT am

Posted in Politics

22 Responses

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  1. “I think there has been denial among Trump supporters that CNN’s biased reporting is swaying some people against Trump.”

    Because you have it backwards. People who dislike Trump choose to watch CNN because CNN plays to their biases, just like pro-Trumpers watch Fox. CNN and Fox are both responding to the market, I don’t think either of broadcaster guides or even has the power to guide their viewers preferences. At this point most Americans are well aware of media biases and which sources are more likely to feed them a steady stream of reinforcement. How many people actually watch CNN anyway?

    Peter Akuleyev

    August 8, 2018 at EDT am

    • “At this point most Americans are well aware of media biases”

      Most means 51%. There are certainly enough people who are not.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      August 8, 2018 at EDT am

      • But of the 49%, how many watch CNN? And of those CNN watchers, how many actually bother to vote?

        Peter Akuleyev

        August 8, 2018 at EDT am

    • The audiences for CNN. MSNBC, and Fox are miniscule compared to the number of TV watchers and almost insignificant compared to the number of voters. I think the half hour network news shows have far more influence.

      Mike Street Station

      August 8, 2018 at EDT am

      • 1. Daily viewers underestimates the true audience, because people may tune in once a week or even once a month, and then get influenced by the anti-Trump rhetoric that pretends to be unbiased factual reporting.

        2. Proles don’t watch CNN, but college-educated suburbanites watch it, and that’s the demographic that Trump is doing very poorly with.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        August 8, 2018 at EDT am

  2. Actually the story of this election is that Balderson pulled it off by minimizing GOP losses among those educated suburban voters (Delaware County).

    IHTG

    August 8, 2018 at EDT am

    • True about the proles not turning out though.

      IHTG

      August 8, 2018 at EDT am

      • Midterm elections always have lower turnout. And this wasn’t even a midterm. It was a special election. Most proles probably didn’t even know about it. So it tells us nothing about November.

        destructure

        August 8, 2018 at EDT am

      • The election was in August. Federal laws that effectively pushed primaries back from September to August to accommodate military ballots (I believe it was the post 2000 ‘reforms’) have had the effect of making August primaries that used to be low turnout late September primaries even lower turnout. We had highly contested local races in my county yesterday and turnout was 20% of registered voters. that number will effectively double for the general.

        Curle

        August 8, 2018 at EDT am

      • “Midterm elections always have lower turnout. And this wasn’t even a midterm. It was a special election. Most proles probably didn’t even know about it. So it tells us nothing about November.”

        That’s the most significant factor in the election: It’s a special election in which only a minuscule portion of the electorate is going to care or show up. Lion wouldn’t even have blogged about this if the media hadn’t made it sound like the beginning of a national blue wave.

        Mike Street Station

        August 9, 2018 at EDT am

  3. On the other hand, Balderson is more of a classical republican. He never spoke about immigration. So it’s normal he wouldn’t energize non college graduate whites. Immigration, trade protectionism and social policies for average middle class are the public policies the electorate want. For the sake of compromise, Trump hasn’t be 100% on this line (except last month … ). Trump should take the most radical positions even if it means blocking the institutions …

    Bruno

    August 8, 2018 at EDT am

  4. “It should be pointed out that the anti-Trump traitor Republican governor Kasich never supported Balderson because Balderson refused to denounce Trump”

    True, But it’s also worth noting that skid marks like Kasich and Ryan are being purged from the party in favor of Trumpists. They’re not even running again. And the ones who have are getting whacked.
    https://www.vox.com/2018/6/13/17450200/trump-critics-republican-primary-lose

    Not only that but the Koch brothers are being squeezed out as well.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/07/koch-and-trumps-tug-of-war-for-the-gop/566396/

    And, finally, Trump endorsed Kobach over the objections of his aids. Anyone who says Trump isn’t serious about immigration is a joke who should be ignored.

    destructure

    August 8, 2018 at EDT am

  5. Wevs. They’ll vote again on November 6 and the Repub will win by double digits. This mid-mid-mid-midterm election was irrelevant.

    hard9bf

    August 8, 2018 at EDT am

  6. “It should be pointed out that the anti-Trump traitor Republican governor Kasich”

    point of order- Trump never would have been President without Kasich…

    Lion o' the Turambar

    August 8, 2018 at EDT am

  7. Danny O’Connor is not going to be the typical type of moderate, white male Democratic Party candidate going forward. His sort of candidacy and campaign can work in the rural/suburban areas of the great lakes/Northeast or erstwhile places “far from the Canadian border” as Sailer would say – but not in the Sun Belt.

    His success could be a pattern for Democrats to follow elsewhere, but they won’t. They’re too busy clamoring to put every far leftist fruit, nut and 1% minority on the ballet for “historic” and other reasons.

    At rallies for the black female Democratic candidate here in Georgia (Stacey Abrams) the first 3-4 rows are always filled with screeching females holding up signs saying “elect black women”. Her campaign basically amounts to “I’m black”. That kind of blatant identity politics wouldn’t fly in Ohio.

    Camlost

    August 8, 2018 at EDT pm

  8. It’s been pointed out that Dem turnout in OH-12 was 87%.

    GOP turnout was around 40%.

    87%? Really? This does not seem credible.

    But it does mean that in November that the GOP wins this seat comfortably.

    gda

    August 8, 2018 at EDT pm

    • The 87% figure seems realistic to me. This is normally a safe Republican district yet it was very close. The Dems were all fired up and turned out in huge numbers. We need to get the prole voter turnout to go way up. The thing is they love Trump and will gladly turn out to vote for him but they can’t get excited about more generic GOP candidates. Look how low their turnout was for Romney.

      Jay Fink

      August 8, 2018 at EDT pm

      • 87% voter turnout for a middle of the week special election? No, I don’t think so.

        Panther of the Blogocube

        August 8, 2018 at EDT pm

      • District produced 250,000 R votes in 2016. 150,000 R votes is what they average in mid terms. Dems only managed 112,000 in 2016 and average about 60,000 in midterms. So assuming intensity pushes Dem turnout to Presidential Year levels or even a bit higher (112,000-120,000), they will still fall 30,000 votes short. If Republicans can inspire stronger than average mid term turnout it will be even bigger blow out.

        PerezHBD

        August 9, 2018 at EDT am

    • 87% of 2016 turnout. 40% of 2016 turnout. So it isn’t 87% of Democratic voters total. It s 87% of the Democrats who voted in 2016.

      PerezHBD

      August 8, 2018 at EDT pm

    • There were 370,00 total votes in 2016 and 200,000 this time around. So the math adds up. Basically almost all the Dems who voted in 2016 came out to vote for O’Conner while less than half the Republicans did. Some of those Republicans are probably proles who only vote in Presidential years, but if R’s can get just 60% of 2016 voters to turn out for the 2018 midterm they should cruise to victory.

      PerezHBD

      August 8, 2018 at EDT pm


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