Lion of the Blogosphere

Republicans’ Pennsylvania problem

with 59 comments

Pennsylvania with its large prole white population (as well as other demographically similar Rustbelt states) was the key to Trump winning the election in 2016.

But the prole whites in Pennsylvania did not turn out for Republicans yesterday. (I am not sure, yet, if they just stayed home, or if they voted for Democrats.)

The prole whites in Pennsylvania are not motivated by the traditional Republican messages of banning abortion, lowering taxes for the top 1%, and union busting. Prole whites in Pennsylvania are not as religious as the prole whites in the Midwest or the South, and they have a long tradition of being sympathetic to the Franklin D. Roosevelt type of liberalism.

I believe that Trump’s focus on immigration, and merely being the guy that elites hate the same way that they hate all prole whites, is what carried the state for him.

But obviously, no one in the Republican Party knows how to tap into non-religious prole white populism. And this is even true for Trump, who did it by accident rather than because he’s an expert at understanding our nation’s demographics and social divisions.

Waiting for the comments where people angrily explain to me that my analysis is wrong.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 7, 2018 at EST am

Posted in Politics, Proles

59 Responses

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  1. The problem is all through the Republican Party and it’s supporters.

    A few weeks ago, Rush mentioned on his show that he was puzzled as to why the tax cuts were not generating higher polling numbers. Any regular poster on this site would be able to explain it to him, but the GOP and the Right in general are clueless.

    Mike Street Station

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • I’m in a rush so have to be quick, but I happen to think yesterday’s results were great. No, hear me out.

      Heitkamp and McCaskill lost. This is big. Then there’s a 3rd big gain, but I forget who – but the Republican wins in the Senate are more important than the Democrat wins in the House. Let the House of Reps grind each other to a halt – who cares? Obviously, I would have liked a threeper, but let’s be happy with the Senate and the two yentas who lost their seats.

      Next, we’ve got the pro-Palestinian faction of the Democratic party beginning to gel. This will frighten and confuse Jewish Democrats and make them less enthusiastic about the Dems. It might not make them Republicans, but dampening Jewish enthusiasm for the Democratic party is a Good Thing.

      There’s a lot of good news. Google Salvini, Bolsonaro and Orban whenever you get depressed.

      gothamette

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • In terms of practical results, it will probably be more of the same. We had an obstructionist GOP Congress that wouldn’t move the President’s priorities, now we’ll have a Democratic one. I do hate that those two years were wasted though. We may never get that time back.

        Mike Street Station

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • Good analysis. Repeat girlfriend beating Muslim Keith Ellison is now the AG of Minnesota too. Betty McCollum who represents the next district over in St Paul is also one of the 5 most anti-Israel members of Congress.

        Lot

        November 8, 2018 at EST pm

      • A non-issue among Jewish voters. Especially Jewish feminists. But the Israel issue will reverberate. Let the Corbynization of the Democrat party begin!

        gothamette

        November 8, 2018 at EST pm

    • WSJ is not terribly excited over the election results. But their editorial page doesn’t attack Trump like NYT does, as they think they can influence him (I’m guessing.). Tax cuts are good, of course, they say,

      But immigration restriction is bad. Yet, if you read the comments on their pro-immigration pieces, most readers don’t agree. Immigration, especially unskilled illegal, only appeals to those running businesses that will benefit.

      The “legal skilled immigration using special visas” articles also generates loads of negative comments. Some complain they are unemployed and it’s because they were replaced by one of these visa holders. Silicon Valley really likes these visas.

      So the Republicans are at an impasse. Cheap migrant workers make money for a number of sectors in the economy, but only at the cost of Americans losing work (or getting paid less).

      In the 1920s, immigration was contentious too. But the Democrats supported restrictions because it was clear that it was hurting American workers. In those days, Democrats supported the working class.

      A similar logic is at work in Canada and the UK. The left has abandoned workers, hoping to import voters.

      Frau Katze

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  2. The blue wall – Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania will decide the next election. If the Democrats wanted a foolproof way to win, they would move 1 million libs out of California and sprinkle them all over these states.

    99.9% Fine

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  3. Pennsylvania and Florida are considered unique and important problems in electoral politics. There are so many competing demographic groups in each, it’s hard to gain ground with one, and not lose ground with another. Does anyone know for sure how to consistently win these states? Obama pulled off an upset against Romney in Pennsylvania. I don’t think he can give anyone else a formula to repeat that.

    MoreSigmasThanYou

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • Minnesota and Michigan now have Muslima congresswomen.

      We must play this up.

      gothamette

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • Pennsylvania is dominated by the Midlands cultural type. https://charlierclaywellwriter.com/2016/04/03/american-nations-explains-countrys-cultural-ethnic-beginnings/

      The people are not identity warriors or particularly religious (in either a secular or divine sense) and are very tolerant. So politically they go with what makes sense to them personally at the time and tend not to get swept up in big narratives. Proles in the South and New England and California are very different in my experience. “Albion’s Seed” helped a lot of things make sense to me.

      bobbybobbob

      November 10, 2018 at EST pm

  4. No you are right on target again!

    Anon

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  5. A lot of the white suburban Jeb Bush Republicans that voted for Trump out of disgust at Hilary, but they tend to be more independent and CNN has taught them that voting for Trump is not respectable

    Borat

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  6. I agree with this. Overall I’m pretty black-pilled. If Trump can’t win when the economy is raoring, he’ll get crushed when the everything bubble bursts.

    Tanturn

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  7. If you’re non-religious, you are arguably less gullible. Harder to con.

    Anthony

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • Also, lots of Catholics in Pennsylvania, and white Catholics have never been as hardcore Republican as white protestants.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • And yet it was Catholics the Bolshois feared/hated most.

        Curle

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • @Curle The religions landscape has changed beyond recognition since 1917.

        Frau Katze

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • > lots of Catholics in Pennsylvania

        It’s not a religious thing. The Presbies and Quakers are more or less on the same page. The Delaware Valley and Susquehanna Valley are noticeably different places than most of the rest of the east coast.

        bobbybobbob

        November 10, 2018 at EST pm

    • Or maybe too stupid to understand religion.

      njguy73

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • The Democrats ran a lot of military veterans who focus on bread and butter issues, and they look good. Hood ornaments, wedding cake figures, whatever you want to call them. But when they put Beto O’Rourke against Trump, Trump will win.

        Also in the next few years the consequences of Democratic policies will begin to clarify, and, I hope, the rotten cuck, dead wood will have been cleared out.

        It’s a long process that will take time to cook.

        gothamette

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • The Bolshois feared the Catholics? Why would a ballet company feel threatened by them?

        sestamibi

        November 8, 2018 at EST pm

      • @sestamibi I think Curle meant “Bolshies” meaning Bolsheviks, synonymous with Communists.

        Frau Katze

        November 8, 2018 at EST pm

  8. But obviously, no one in the Republican Party knows how to tap into non-religious prole white populism.

    This was the province of mid-century Democrats: gov’t as friend of the common man; lots of social spending; strong unions; protected trade; etc.

    There’s enough gas in the tank for them to still be Dem voters. Though the party has gone over to protection for monopoly power and replacement level immigration, they still promise more gov’t spending than the Repubs. So though things are shifting into a globalist vs. nationalist dynamic, the Repubs still aren’t quite there with a message for the non-religious white populists, who are still turned off by the anti abortion message wrapped in morality.

    bomag

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  9. Your analysis is wrong because it seems that you are basing this off Wolf and Casey winning big state wide.

    1. Wagner and Barletta were clown car candidates, wolf and casey were incumbents.
    2. PA congressional districts were redrawn with a less R tilt. If your analysis is correct, the new PA-16, PA-10, and PA-01 should’ve flipped blue – especially PA-01. In PA-10, prole whites carried Scott Perry over the line big time and Fitzpatrick held on in PA-01.

    Trump’s path in pa for 2020 is pretty easy – tell pelosi to give him full funding for the wall and in exchange he will agree to supporting a plan where medicare will be able to negotiate drug prices as a single buyer and he will sign off on a democratic house infrastructure bill and not the watered down public-private partnership crap.

    Simba of the Blogosphere

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  10. I’m not saying you’re wrong, but how different is rural Pennsylvania from say, Ohio? The GOP did very well there last night, despite Sherrod Brown’s victory.

    IHTG

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • Something is different, because Pennsylvania has been blue for many elections except for 2016.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • Sometimes the local party infrastructure just sucks. Ohio has an effective GOP establishment. I’ve heard that Minnesota, for example, doesn’t.

        The Dems have this problem too – see Florida, a state that is really more conservative than it has any right to be.

        IHTG

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • *more Republican, rather

        IHTG

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • Philadelphia is twice the size of any city in Ohio, and PA also has Pittsburgh.

        Richard

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • Pittsburg is Trump territory or so I’ve been told.

        Curle

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • I’m not saying you’re wrong, but how different is rural Pennsylvania from say, Ohio? The GOP did very well there last night, despite Sherrod Brown’s victory.

        Pennsylvania, statewide, is consistently about 5 points more Democratic than Ohio. So to win Pennsylvania a Republican usually has to win Ohio by a strong margin.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) consistently gives the Dem candidate a net of over 100,000 votes.

        Richard

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • “– see Florida, a state that is really more conservative than it has any right to be.”

        Florida has a lot of retirees who percentage wise vote in heavier numbers than the population at large. Massive retirement communities like The Villages draw upper middle class retirees from the North down to Florida. So even though Florida’d demographics suck, the likely voters are older, wealthier, and whiter than the state as a whole.

        Mike Street Station

        November 8, 2018 at EST am

  11. aren’t most proles religious though? Non-religious proles almost seems like a contradiction. I think he’s aware of such divisions but his power to do anything is limited. I think heads would explode if the GOP made a push for non-religious voters

    grey enlightenment

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • I know of many non-religious proles. They definitely exist. Some of them would be better off being devout Christians because it would keep them on the straight and narrow which they can’t do themselves.

      Jay Fink

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • I don’t know about “proles,” but it’s a common misconception among middle-class social conservatives that the poor are these salt-of-the-earth types who are conservatively religious and geared toward traditional values. In reality, being conservatively religious is a middle-class thing. Among the poor you will find some of the biggest freaks and weirdos out there.

      Hermes

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • “Non-religious proles almost seems like a contradiction.”

      Well then you are out of touch. I grew up around many proles.(Though my family was middle class) It was common for them to derogate religion, along with the education system, the police, the politically correct, and anyone else trying to control their behavior.

      Tanturn

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • Measured in terms of church attendance, the upper middle class is actually far more religious than the proles. I remember looking in to this in the GSS back in the day.

      Jokah Macpherson

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • Upper classes BEHAVE better, and in some places good behavior means going to church. But lower classes BELIEVE. At least some of them do. Even though their lives are too screwed up to get to Church on time.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • Upper middle class people can afford church dues more than proles, and are able to take off Sunday more.

        Just another day in the life of NJGuy, The Obvious-Stuff-Stater.

        njguy73

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  12. IHTG

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • IHTG

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • Wow!!!!

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • Another stupid move. Arguably Jeff Sessions has done more to enact the Trump agenda than even Trump himself. Jeff Sessions was in the middle of tightening up the asylum qualification rules.

        Jimi

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • I agree.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • Jimi, what are Sessions’ contributions?

        Robert the Wise

        November 8, 2018 at EST am

      • Sessions instituted a lot of huge policy changes to make DoJ anti-immigrant and stop being SJW, and in fact now pushing conservative policies. Like joining with the anti-affirmative action lawsuit against Harvard.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 8, 2018 at EST am

  13. You did not mention the court-mandated redistricting in PA, which had a lot to do with the election results. Grrr, I am angry about this.

    Lowe

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  14. The Republicans stupidly focused all their energy on the tax cuts and failed attempts to repeal Obamacare.

    Voters like having preexisting conditions covered. Removing preexisting conditions hurts a lot of Trump voters. That cost the GOP a lot of votes.

    Meanwhile Hollywood celebrities, silicon valley workers and rich urban liberals took the tax cuts and voted for Democrats. Thanks for nothing suckers!!

    Jimi

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • The rich urban liberals got hit by the SALT deduction cap though.

      IHTG

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • “Removing preexisting conditions hurts a lot of Trump voters.”

      Most voters, Trump or otherwise, get their insurance through an employer or Medicare; they’re already covered for pre-existing conditions, and have been for decades.

      J1

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • Obamacare was repealed when the financial penalty was removed, thus allowing us all to just ignore Obamacare. Thanks for playing, Troll. You win a home version of the game!

      Robert the Wise

      November 8, 2018 at EST am

  15. I agree with your analysis Lion. The turning point was the tax cuts. That’s when it became obvious the GOPe was in control and they wanted Reaganism…not any of the populist/nationalist themes Trump successfully campaigned on.

    Jay Fink

    November 7, 2018 at EST pm

    • Link doesn’t work. Banned from Twitter?

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

      • IHTG

        November 8, 2018 at EST am

    • Link doesn’t work me either.

      Frau Katze

      November 7, 2018 at EST pm

  16. How could you be wrong?

    There are three american parties today: Blue, red, and Trump&co. Last one were not on the ballot yesterday.

    Same in Europe (I´m from Norway) – traditional political parties´ existence hinges somehow on the confusion that (traditional) left and (traditional) right is still the only axis in play.

    (Media love to play that narrative of course)

    Me, I am anti-globalist, pro-abortion, pro-green (although I see it as a lost cause), pro-welfare state (much easier in Norway), anti-immigration. I guess our North-European descendants in Pennsylvania (not to mention Norwegian descendants in Wisconsin!) have the same dilemma.

    Before globalism, we could vote left-ish without thinking too much about it. Then our secure societies began slowly eroding. Today we have to go right in order to save the left.

    The irony is of course that today’s big-mouthed left are being deluded by globalism and big corporation advertising. I´ve never been to Pennsylvania, but perhaps it´s a bit like that there too?

    Into my heart an air that kills
    From yon far country blows:
    What are those blue remembered hills,
    What spires, what farms are those?

    That is the land of lost content,
    I see it shining plain,
    The happy highways where I went
    And cannot come again.

    (A.E. Housman)

    Tarjei Vatne

    November 8, 2018 at EST am

  17. On the other hand, the PA Dems are pretty tone deaf WRT prole whites as well:

    http://www.wesa.fm/post/allegheny-county-democratic-staffer-resigns-amid-controversy-over-facebook-posts#stream/0

    It’s quite revealing that despite big Dem wins for gov and US senator, the Republicans were still able to hang on to control of the PA state legislature. I find that quite impressive.

    sestamibi

    November 8, 2018 at EST pm


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