Lion of the Blogosphere

Quinnipiac poll on border wall

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2590

The border wall questions are at the bottom, so scroll all the way down.

Respondents who self-identify as Republicans support the wall 86-14, but respondents who self-identify as Democrats oppose the wall by an even bigger margin of 80-9, while “independents” oppose the wall 51-45.

I think that Democratic politicians will read this poll and think they have nothing to lose by adamantly refusing to deal with Trump.

However, it’s plausible that there’s an enthusiasm gap, and that those who support the Wall feel more strongly about it than those who oppose it, and if that’s the case then Democrats might be wrong about feeling so confident that they have nothing to lose by adamantly refusing to deal with Trump.

As far as why the electorate believes what they believe, it’s more about tribal identity (I’m in the Democratic tribe, and that’s the anti-wall tribe, so that’s what I’m supposed to believe) than any sort or reasoned analysis like I do on this blog.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

December 27, 2018 at 5:09 PM

Posted in Politics

40 Responses

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  1. Well, it is tribal, but let’s be honest and admit that today Dem=non-white, and increasingly Rep=white. Things are going to get a lot more ugly as we recognize this.

    The LA Concession

    December 27, 2018 at 5:28 PM

    • High IQ whites are much more likely to be Dems, especially in the Trump era. This is really more an urban–rural split than a racial split. White professionals no longer identify with the GOP.

      Peter Akuleyev

      December 28, 2018 at 1:03 AM

      • White and Jewish professionals are suicidal. The current very elderly Democratic leadership is White and Jewish, but the next-in-line are people like Guitierrez, Perez, Ocasio-Cortez, people who are black and brown and who virulently hate Whites and Jews.

        There will be no place for Whites and Jews in the new Democrat Party regardless of their politics. Identitarian politics are upon us.

        bob sykes

        December 28, 2018 at 8:26 AM

      • I object to your implication that Jews aren’t white.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 28, 2018 at 9:11 AM

      • Not suicidal. Professional parasites don’t find any common ground with manual laborers and bus boys, unless when they need something fixed or built or at the deli dining while being served by a Hispanic.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        December 28, 2018 at 9:27 AM

      • I object to your implication that Jews aren’t white.

        Jews are white when white nationalists blame Jews for not backing their mangled vision of white nationalism.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        December 28, 2018 at 5:37 PM

      • The white nationalists who have defined Jews as non-white are furious at Jews for not defending white nationalism.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        December 28, 2018 at 8:10 PM

      • Irrelevant even if true the top one percent rules the country not the upper middle class. They also control both parties and switch in between whenever it suits them. At present the GOP and Trump are preferable. It would be best if most people would shut up and know their place letting the rich and powerful rule society as heaven intended. From the Chinese concept of the mandate of heaven to the European divine right of kings society is ruled by elites for a reason. People have forgotten that only in the modern era.

        redarmyvodka

        December 29, 2018 at 1:45 AM

      • It’s quite dangerous for Jews to openly court and support White Nationalism for historical reasons.

        Regarding American elites who govern…I only find strivers at the DC Beltway circlejerk, no monarchy.

        C’mon!

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        December 29, 2018 at 9:44 AM

      • @ vodka

        “It would be best if most people would shut up and know their place letting the rich and powerful rule society as heaven intended. From the Chinese concept of the mandate of heaven to the European divine right of kings society is ruled by elites for a reason. People have forgotten that only in the modern era.”

        I agree with this, but the problem with the West is our elites have been selected in an ineffective way. As a result they are much stupider than the elites we need. Their stupidity means they become infected with crazy, bad ideas like social justice, disparate impact, and climate change apocalypse.

        Lowe

        December 29, 2018 at 5:07 PM

  2. Polls don’t matter. If the status quo doesn’t want the wall to be built, then perhaps proles can try to enable Trump to go with the program. If not, a bloody hell of a revolution to make it happen, which of course will not happen, and thus no wall will be built.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    December 27, 2018 at 6:32 PM

  3. It seems to me that Trump has more to lose if he gives in on this. I think he actually wants to give in, but if he does he risks losing support with his base in the 2020 elections.

    The democrats will anger their donors and some on their activist wing, but their stakes don’t seem as high to me.

    Alex

    December 27, 2018 at 7:12 PM

  4. The people who oppose a wall on the southern border, e.g. Andrew Cuomo are the same people who think “extreme” conservatives should be kicked out of NY state.

    Sgt. Joe Friday

    December 27, 2018 at 7:18 PM

  5. Tribal identity – don’t know about men, but I think women are single issue voters: abortion yesterday, abortion today, abortion tomorrow. They’ll cut their kids’ and grandkids’ economic throats just to get back at the R’s for opposing abortion.

    Marty

    December 27, 2018 at 7:45 PM

  6. And Quinnipiac polling had pretty bad calls (leaning too strongly Democrat than final results) during the midterms.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    December 27, 2018 at 7:56 PM

    • I think it can be safely assumed support for the wall is at least +5 points more than what this poll says.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      December 27, 2018 at 7:57 PM

  7. Kind of hard to believe. Lower-income people are more likely to be Democrats, and these are the people who are competing most with illegal alien labor. They also bear the brunt of the social costs in their neighborhoods and schools. I would think the same people who favor a minimum wage hike would favor limiting low-skill immigration. Also, the poll says that even 66% of Democrats think securing the border is important. Is it the cost of the wall that they don’t like?

    Steverino@Steverino.com

    December 27, 2018 at 8:01 PM

    • The wall is a monument to Trump, it doesn’t really do anything for border security. A wall only works if you station troops to guard it, set up surveillance devices and have a secondary line of defence. But once you have done all that, building the actual physical wall isn‘t that important. A fence would suffice. If Trump and Congress can‘t or won‘t commit to a permanent comprehensive border security effort, building a big wall is just a white elephant.

      Peter Akuleyev

      December 28, 2018 at 1:12 AM

      • We need the Wall because the stupid asylum law, as interpreted by judges, is that once someone sets foot in the country we can’t toss them back out no matter how great our border security is at catching them.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 28, 2018 at 7:25 AM

      • It sounds like our real problem is these judges.

        Lowe

        December 28, 2018 at 9:08 AM

      • Real problem is that Congress won’t change the law. So ultimately the real problem is that voters are electing the wrong people to Congress. Which is happening because of brainwashing by the liberal-controlled media. So the real problem is the liberal-controlled media.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        December 28, 2018 at 9:14 AM

      • The number of Central American asylum seekers is still a very small percentage of illegal immigrants, and Trump is doing a fine job deterring them just by being proactive at keeping them from reaching the border in the first place. A wall has a poor value vs. cost ration.

        Muslim Asylum seekers come by plane and a wall won’t help much.

        Peter Akuleyev

        December 28, 2018 at 10:47 AM

      • Let’s be very clear – a wall/fence/barrier DOES work – just look at Israel, Hungary etc. But it’s obvious that it can’t work EFFECTIVELY without technology, manpower et al.

        Just technology and manpower et al alone is going to be useless – unless we start using drones to “take out” people crossing the border – probably not a politically viable option.

        So a barrier is THE MOST IMPORTANT thing. But it must be backed up by other things.

        But the problem is that the Dems CANNOT give the “wall” the time of day, because, well, Trump. This is the reaction of children of course.

        But blame Trump also for not simply appointing a team of engineering experts to analyse EXACTLY what is needed and where it is needed, giving a nationwide TV address on the Border security problem and presenting the recommended solution (which WILL certainly include a “wall/fence/barrier) – and then just getting it done it by hook or by crook. The public overwhelmingly supports border security and its baffling that someone who manipulates the media so adroitly cannot see what’s needed.

        I would recommend he use the latest abomination – the killing, by an illegal alien, of a brown legal immigrant, who came to America in order to serve his community as a policeman, and who was clearly beloved by his family, friends and workmates, to bolster the narrative and tear at the heartstrings of every single reasonable American that sees that story – its heartrending. But of course, the public at large will never be allowed to see that story. It just does not fit the Trumpporn narrative of the cable channels and networks.

        gda53

        December 28, 2018 at 6:41 PM

      • “The number of Central American asylum seekers is still a very small percentage of illegal immigrants, and Trump is doing a fine job deterring them just by being proactive at keeping them from reaching the border in the first place. A wall has a poor value vs. cost ration.

        Muslim Asylum seekers come by plane and a wall won’t help much.”

        That number is going to grow. Ten years ago, the number of Central Americans crossing the southern border for the purpose of claiming asylum was infinitesimal. Now it’s several thousand a year. Soon it will be tens of thousands, then millions. Once you’ve established the all you have to do to get into the US is claim some sort of “violence” it opens the door to the entire world.

        A wall would be much easier than handling tens of millions of “asylum” seekers.

        Mike Street Station

        December 30, 2018 at 8:23 AM

    • Low income, Democratic brats are likely NAM in origin and they perceive Trump as a bigot who only cares about Whites. The wall symbolize an affront to them and it’s raycyst.

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      December 28, 2018 at 9:23 AM

    • @gda53:

      You’re right! Gotta exploit this California atrocity. Actually, I’m surprised that my (journalistic) hero Steve Sailer hasn’t yet posted another of his “Trump’s Luck” threads yet.

      Vipltd

      December 28, 2018 at 8:01 PM

  8. “However, it’s plausible that there’s an enthusiasm gap, and that those who support the Wall feel more strongly about it than those who oppose it”

    Basically the reverse of the situation with abortion. Anti-abortion people usually are far more passionate about the issue than pro-choices.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    December 27, 2018 at 8:49 PM

  9. Observation: didn’t most of the alt-right (myself, included) praise Trump for the PR/business strategy of ‘assuming the sale’ and arguing one step beyond the sale- not just getting wall, but Mexico paying?

    Did this backfire and give the left a convenient out, talking point for not backing a wall they generally are on record as backing not too long ago? I.E.; “But I thought Trump said Mexico was going to pay.” Is ‘assuming the sale’ and over-selling bad strategy for politics?

    trey

    December 28, 2018 at 8:45 AM

    • The events of his administration suggest Trump is actually Mr. Magoo, not a master manipulator. It was the wrong move to emphasize the wall after he assumed office. Pursue it, fine, but don’t neglect other available avenues… which he has.

      He should have quietly reduced emphasis on the wall, or even dropped it, and started pushing for measures like mandatory E-Verify, a remittance tax on money going overseas, and stiffer penalties for employers hiring illegals. If he had done this, along with clamping down more seriously on legal immigration, his supporters would not have cared about the wall at all. The people aren’t dumb.

      The media could have pointed and sputtered about the wall, and how he failed to build it. But if he had done things like what I described, things like ending DACA on day one, or reducing refugee resettlement funding to zero, or the minimum possible amount (not just a reduction of 50%), then their criticism on the wall would mean nothing. NOBODY would care.

      Instead Trump has used his scarcest resource, time, to push things like the Muslim ban and the wall, neither of which are that important. Every alternative I already listed is more important than these things. There is no way Trump is not familiar with these options. He’s actually mentioned critically important things, like ending birthright citizenship, but has he followed up? No.

      By all appearances the man does not care about immigration the way many of his supporters do. His performance on trade has been better, but not great, and where is the trust-busting we all hoped for? I don’t even hear rhetoric on this subject. Why?

      Trump is heading for electoral defeat in 2020, if he runs again, and it will be entirely on him. That I like him, that he has done a lot for the American right, that his foreign policy has been fantastic, the best, does not change that.

      Lowe

      December 28, 2018 at 11:21 AM

      • Lowe,

        None of what you say will work.

        Once an illegal is in the country, heaven and earth is moved to keep him here. Using e-verify will get you in hot water with the DoJ, which assumes that anyone who is working is on a valid work permit and that your attempts to verify with other methods is illegal discrimination…meaning you can’t discriminate against illegals in the workplace.

        That is why the wall is necessary, though not sufficient.

        map

        December 30, 2018 at 4:19 PM

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    December 28, 2018 at 10:17 AM

  11. Trump is talking about closing completely the southern border. That threat is also a very serious game changer because industrial lobby’s will panic. He could also tax remittances.

    Trump should escalate the demands to total immigration shake up. Closing the border completely will be very popular. It will compensate the milde negative effect of the shutdown.

    And Trump was right to signal that the 800k federal employees are almost democrats. Because it blocks sympathy from his base to them. Then, the pressure is only on democrats because Trump can say, I don’t care.

    Bruno

    December 28, 2018 at 10:48 AM

  12. When did you last vote for a Democrat? Assuming a competitive race.

    Did you vote for the Democrats when you were living in AZ?

    Curle

    December 28, 2018 at 2:22 PM

    • I have never voted for a Democrat.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      December 28, 2018 at 2:46 PM

      • That’s impressive. I voted for Dukakis and then Clinton in 1992. I must have changed sometime in the mid-90s because I haven’t voted for a single Democrat since then.

        Jay Fink

        December 28, 2018 at 10:37 PM

  13. SJWs are a bigger problem for America than the immigrants the alt-right like to crow about.

    But yeah, eventually immigrants will drown us, as civilization requires a certain mean IQ to perpetuate itself, and any above average IQ immigrants typically have hostile allegiances which make them a net negative.

    Fact Checker

    December 28, 2018 at 9:26 PM

    • Even if we stopped all immigration tomorrow, we would still be left with roughly half of white people who are inimical to the principles that have maintained advanced civilization for centuries. What are we supposed to do about them? Nothing, the only thing that will change their minds is some type of large-scale upheaval that shakes them out of their complacency.

      Fact Checker

      December 28, 2018 at 9:31 PM

      • Correction: it’s actually one third. One third are hard right, one third are leftist commies, and the other third are moderate/apolitical and just go with whatever the zeitgeist is.

        Fact Checker

        December 28, 2018 at 9:35 PM

      • This is a game of stalling national collapse, not reversing it. It’s years too late for that. But stalling it is worth the effort.

        Mike Street Station

        December 30, 2018 at 8:27 AM

  14. I guess I go with the practical on this one. The cost to our society through 50 yrs of narco traffic vs. $5.7b? How will the CIA get their black op money though?

    PrayThroughHistory

    January 9, 2019 at 7:11 PM


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