Lion of the Blogosphere

Bernie pulls ahead

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_2020_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

Most-recent New Hampshire poll has Bernie pulling ahead of Biden. With Biden apparently not entering the race, Bernie is seems like the guy who’s mostly likely to win Biden’s supporters, given that they are both old white men who have the best claim to being next in line.

I don’t think that Bernie can be stopped by anyone but Biden, and Biden doesn’t want to run.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 25, 2019 at 4:15 PM

Posted in Politics

45 Responses

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  1. Top-10 population states each candidate should win in the primaries:

    Bernie: NY, OH, PA (3)
    Kamasutra: CA, FL, GA, IL, MI, NC, TX (7)

    Fiddlesticks

    February 25, 2019 at 4:43 PM

    • Why would Bernie win NY? It went for Clinton by 16 points in 2016.

      Granted, it was her home state (for certain loose definitions of “home”), but it’s also a POC state (non-Hispanic whites being a minority), so she still gets an advantage there.

      I’d be curious to see is a list of states where whites comprise a majority of Democratic primary voters, but NY is not one of them. Those are the only states available for Bernie (or any white candidate) to win, unless the POC vote is badly split between multiple POC candidates and the white vote is largely united.

      Wency

      February 25, 2019 at 6:28 PM

      • Strictly by the current favorability numbers: Sanders does better among “POC,” and worst among whites.

        Issac

        February 26, 2019 at 7:36 AM

  2. Mark Penn says that Hilary may enter the race if the field is too left. She is that crazy.

    But, no matter, either Bernie or Hilary can beat Trump. Demographics is the name of the game and year by year the electorate gets browner and browner while cuck SWPLs never consider that the demographic transformation can hurt themselves in any way. 2020 will be close.

    Daniel Heneghan

    February 25, 2019 at 4:55 PM

  3. Does anyone think Bernie has the gravitas and fortitude to sit down with Putin or Un and negotiate?
    I just don’t see it. He will cave to whatever black grievance mongers demand, and he can’t stand toe to toe with heavyweight world leaders.
    Running Vermont is not the same thing as running the U.S., or dealing with serious global issues. If Bernie supporters think the Deep State will ease up if Bernie gets elected, they are fooling themselves.
    The Deep State will eat Bernie alive. At least Trump has, or had, the guts to punch back. Bernie can’t handle that kind of heat.

    Dave

    February 25, 2019 at 4:57 PM

    • Bernie never ran the state of Vermont, the only thing he ran was the city of Burlington (as mayor).

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 25, 2019 at 5:53 PM

      • Imagine a showdown between 2 socialist freaks, who’ve done nothing of importance, and that’s Bernie and De Blasio over socialism.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        February 25, 2019 at 6:37 PM

      • Bernie is probably higher T than you’d think, just considering that he’s been up for arguing with U.S. Senate-tier politicians for his entire life, and he has the fire in the belly to keep trying to become president. I’m saying higher than you’d think, so that’s vs. a low bar.

        Maybe the Deep State will eat Bernie alive. That’s why, if Trump’s going to lose to a Democrat in 2020, President Sanders would be by far the best outcome. The establishment would continue to be distracted by having to obstruct and work around the president. As opposed to, say, Kamala Harris, about whom we can say for sure that she knows how to go along to get along. Bernie is smarter in some ways that Trump, so he might try to undermine the Deep State more actively. That could end up being the worst of both worlds if he can’t take the heat.

        Blue Tribe Dissident

        February 26, 2019 at 12:33 AM

      • Am I alone in thinking it undesirable for the presidential candidates to be so old? I keep thinking of the elderly Kremlin men who were barely functional, until Gorbachev was appointed, after which everything fell apart.

        I know their system of governance was far less stable but still: why are young and competent leaders (not like AOC) so scarce?

        Frau Katze

        February 26, 2019 at 12:44 AM

      • I agree that Bernie is weak far too weak against Trump and his lack of strength on border policy, police issues, illegal immigration, Black Lives Matter, etc will sink his presidential ambitions. He could never get past the primary and the general with everything that will be thrown at him plus subdue/defeat what people call the “Deep State”.

        Bernie is also too old. I agree that people never retiring is becoming a major problem in American politics much like it was in Soviet/Russian. That problem began in the 2000s under the Bush II administration with people like Cheney/Rumsfeld and the movie Vice conveys that idea much better than I can.

        redarmyvodka

        February 26, 2019 at 7:53 PM

    • Un? You mean the UN?

      Blue Tribe Dissident

      February 25, 2019 at 6:17 PM

      • I think he means Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

        CamelCaseRob

        February 26, 2019 at 9:37 AM

    • The deep state won’t eat Bernie alive, they’ll control him. Bernie is weak and will buckle under to whatever they dictate. We got a preview of that in the last campaign. Bernie changed all of his immigration positions to match the current Democratic mantras. The guy will do as he’s told.

      Mike Street Station

      February 25, 2019 at 7:48 PM

      • That pretty much describes Obama.

        bomag

        February 26, 2019 at 9:08 AM

      • Indeed. Obama was a massive disappointment and where he was allowed to act he did a lot of damage. Though I would argue the worst president in American history was Dubya who was largely put into power by the Deep State as a princeling son.

        There are three major factions in the American oligarchy Skull and Bones, Robber Barons/Rockefeller family, and Hollywood/Zionists. Some new groups have emerged as well such as the newly rich sun belt types, the technology sector, and the Koch brothers. They’re all multi-billionaires and have their own factionalism and splits as well but on the whole the core of the US Deep State is Skull and Bones which is located exclusively at Yale, their summer retreat at Deer Island, and Brown Brothers Harriman the oldest/largest banking partnership on Wall Street with five trillion in assets under management.

        Trump is unique in that he was the establishment’s favorite son and socialized in those circles for years/decades as a sort of minor noblemen. Bernie will not be allowed to be president he just doesn’t have the gravitas and connections.

        redarmyvodka

        February 26, 2019 at 7:34 PM

    • “The Deep State,” more or less renders the President a figurehead anyhow.

      Issac

      February 25, 2019 at 9:20 PM

      • Yes and no I’d argue that every president left a unique legacy and some were better than others. They also represented different factions in the American oligarchy which had a lot of overlap but also some major differences. In other words the presidential elections are very real and there were big turning points in American history usually for the worse like the presidential elections of 1860, 1960, 2000, and occasionally for the better like 2015/2106.

        redarmyvodka

        February 26, 2019 at 7:40 PM

    • In fairness, the Democratic Party now believes it is immoral to sit down and negotiate with Putin, Un, or anybody else that doesn’t share Leftist values. So while what you are saying is true, I don’t think that costs him any votes.

      PerezHBD

      February 26, 2019 at 2:19 AM

  4. Not sure Trump supporters should be supportive of this development. Aside from Kabbalah Harris, Bernard is one of the better matches against Trump, of those who are running at present. Harris has a clear path on the Obama electoral map. Sanders could do the same with the Trump electoral map.

    Issac

    February 25, 2019 at 5:22 PM

  5. Bernie’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Kamala will play him like a drum (and Trump will then beat Kamala).

    greenteaB

    February 25, 2019 at 5:49 PM

  6. Black voters yawn at Bernie Sanders.

    He will lose every state that Hillary lost, and then some.

    Camlost

    February 25, 2019 at 7:01 PM

    • Yet in the 2016 general they pretty much yawned at Hillary. If black voter turnout was higher in Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee etc we would probably have Madame President right now…God forbid.

      Bernie could get high voter turnout among the young, none of the others can do that…including Harris.

      Jay Fink

      February 26, 2019 at 6:51 AM

  7. Meh. Bernie won It in 2016 with 60%. What happened next?

    Dave

    February 25, 2019 at 7:18 PM

  8. libertarianism/market fundamentalism is responsible for more deaths than any other ideology. and it isn’t even close.

    “10s of millions of people have died as a result of what’s taught in american economics departments.” —chomsky

    all gingers must die.

    February 25, 2019 at 7:20 PM

  9. “Beau Biden’s Widow Having Affair With His Married Brother,” blared Page Six. “Hunter Biden’s Estranged Wife Claims He Spent ‘Extravagantly’ on Drugs, Alcohol, Prostitutes and Strip Clubs,” blasted People. “Kathleen Biden Sobs in Court as She Details the Collapse of Her Marriage to Hunter But He’s No-Show,” screeched The Daily Mail.

    MEH 0910

    February 25, 2019 at 7:31 PM

  10. Kamala has been unimpressive so far compared to how she was hyped. She may have the demographic factors in her favor but that’s about it. She’s…not Obama. I always found Obama kind of boring myself but at least he had gravitas and a politician’s sense.

    Jokah Macpherson

    February 25, 2019 at 9:40 PM

    • I agree. She has a surprising lack of charisma. Plus blacks won’t like her because she has a white husband.

      Jay Fink

      February 26, 2019 at 6:54 AM

      • A white wife would be disastrous for a black candidate. A white husband is no trouble at all.

        owentt

        February 27, 2019 at 12:18 PM

    • Kamala has been unimpressive

      I get the feeling that California is a machine politics state: the party leaders pick who gets the money and endorsements.

      Has there been a leader of national importance come out of Cali recently? Other than Pelosi, meh. You’d think a state of that size would offer up more presidential candidates and cabinet secretaries.

      bomag

      February 26, 2019 at 9:33 AM

      • “Has there been a leader of national importance come out of Cali recently?”

        Ronald Reagan.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 26, 2019 at 10:07 AM

      • Reagan

        Yes, I thought of Reagan and Nixon, but off-hand I can’t come up with very many prominent figures on the national stage of recent vintage.

        bomag

        February 26, 2019 at 12:30 PM

      • Reagan is recent to me.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 26, 2019 at 3:26 PM

      • This should answer all your questions about California.

        redarmyvodka

        February 26, 2019 at 8:06 PM

  11. Is it weird that running for president and losing in the primary seems to be the best launching pad for a strong future run, while running for president and losing in the general is a political death sentence (I don’t think anyone has come back from that since Nixon).

    Jokah Macpherson

    February 25, 2019 at 9:42 PM

    • Good point. A lot of voters who don’t pay close attention (most of them) never even heard of the primary losers. The general election losers on the other hand are known losers and nobody wants to back a loser.

      Jay Fink

      February 26, 2019 at 6:59 AM

    • The establishment-preferred candidate usually wins the primary, and no one sees their judgment as omniscient.

      Richard

      February 26, 2019 at 9:20 AM

    • When you lose a primary, you’re running against people who agree with you and like you. You reconcile. Losing doesn’t cost your party anything, as long as you endorse the eventual winner.

      When you lose the general, you’ve cost tens of thousands of party operatives the jobs of their lives. You’ve disappointed the party faithful. You cannot be rehabilitated.

      owentt

      February 27, 2019 at 12:22 PM

  12. Bernie would never win NY State, not even against a ham sandwich. And it’s not because of the blacks. It’s because NY Jews hate him. I believe Lion mentioned this in 2016. True then, true now.

    gothamette

    February 26, 2019 at 12:00 PM

  13. I’m just waiting for another Israeli “police action” in Gaza to see the Democratic party blow the fuck up.

    gothamette

    February 26, 2019 at 12:01 PM

    • That will be a hilarious civil war for the Democrats!

      Mike Street Station

      February 27, 2019 at 6:08 AM

      • It’s already happening in the Labour Party in UK. It’s only a matter of time before it happens here. I for one cannot wait.

        gothamette

        February 27, 2019 at 3:01 PM

  14. I just admit I have no talent for predicting political races. In 2000, I bet a friend that Gore would win. Cost me a bottle of Macallan 15.

    Marty

    February 26, 2019 at 12:08 PM

    • Don’t be so hard on yourself. 2000 was the closest election ever. It was the year of the hanging chad. I usually have a good feel for who’s going to win but 2016 shocked me…in a good way.

      Jay Fink

      February 26, 2019 at 1:35 PM

    • well it’s really hard to do. Whoever thought that Trump would win not only the nomination, but the presidency? He was considered an entertaining joke for a long, long time. The New Hampshire primary is a year off. I have no idea who will win the Democratic nomination. I guess Biden has the best chance, but then so did Jeb!

      Amused Observer

      February 26, 2019 at 2:52 PM

    • MacAllen 15 isn’t that expensive and it’s a fine Scotch to share with a victorious friend. Good bet.

      owentt

      February 27, 2019 at 12:24 PM


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