Lion of the Blogosphere

Latest nationwide poll

Click to access Political-Intelligence-2.26.19.pdf

Bernie moves up 6 percentage points since last week, it’s now Biden 29 Bernie 27.

Also, Bernie gets the largest share of Biden’s second choice votes, so if Biden doesn’t run (and I don’t see Biden acting like he’s seriously going to run), Bernie’s lead will increase that much more over everyone else.

Polls don’t lie!

The worst you can say about polls is that they tell the truth about how people would vote today and not how they will vote a year from now. And that they can have sample bias and a margin of error.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 26, 2019 at 5:03 PM

Posted in Uncategorized

27 Responses

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  1. My top choice is Andrew Yang.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    February 26, 2019 at 5:18 PM

    • Agreed. He strikes me as someone who covertly has read or poked around a little in the HBD/manosphere space.

      Simba of the Blogosphere

      February 26, 2019 at 6:48 PM

  2. So I take it that you think that Bernie has a real chance at the nomination based on polls this early? In that case Jeb! must have won the GOP nomination…

    When the voting starts, I just don’t believe that Democrat primary voters are going to go with an old white Bernie when there are several newer models in various shades of brown to choose from. That’s where there heart is.

    Mike Street Station

    February 26, 2019 at 5:22 PM

    • “In that case Jeb! must have won the GOP nomination…”

      There’s no Democratic Trump.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 26, 2019 at 5:40 PM

      • Schultz, or someone like him, might win as an independent. The mass of people are pretty disgusted with both parties.

        bobbybobbob

        February 26, 2019 at 5:54 PM

      • Schultz, the Starbucks coffee guy? He will never win as an independent.

        Starbucks is synonomous with snotty people who drink gay syrup drinks, and spineless corporate leaders who let homeless people shoot up in the bathroom.

        Nobody will ever see Howard Schultz like they did Ross Perot. Schultz is just another rich man too in love with his own legend to admit he will never be president.

        Lowe

        February 27, 2019 at 12:40 AM

      • The platform Shultz wants to run on is progressive libertarianism, which is far less popular than either major party. It only polls well among upper middle class whites.

        Issac

        February 27, 2019 at 7:59 AM

    • I don’t think Jeb! Is a good comparison. The GOP establishment was trying to push Jeb but the base wasn’t excited about him. Bernie is pretty much the opposite…liberals have passion for him while the Dem establishment doesn’t like him.

      Jay Fink

      February 26, 2019 at 6:33 PM

  3. Polls don’t lie but they are inaccurate and when the margin is too small they are meaningless.

    Hashed

    February 26, 2019 at 5:28 PM

    • Especially this early in the game. Voters aren’t even thinking about this stuff yet. Wait til people start seriously considering a nominee and then see which way the polls move.

      destructure

      February 26, 2019 at 8:24 PM

  4. The worst you can say about polls is that they tell the truth about how people would vote today and not how they will vote a year from now. And that they can have sample bias and a margin of error.

    And that “nationwide” polls mean little when there is no nationwide primary. HRC held off Bernie in Iowa in 2016 – Kamasutra should do at least as well there.

    Iowa libsofts are very easily guilted about their whiteness and ruralness, and are terrified of the big-city media criticizing them for supporting a white male candidate like a bunch of corn-shucking goobers.

    Fiddlesticks

    February 26, 2019 at 5:59 PM

    • Rumors that whites prefer Harris are not materializing. You can repeat them on behalf of the party establishment if you want, but it doesn’t make them true.

      Issac

      February 27, 2019 at 7:55 AM

      • Whites have little influence on the results of the Democratic primary.

        owentt

        February 27, 2019 at 3:27 PM

      • They do in a few states, but that fact is tangential to my point: Sanders Polls ahead of Harris with all demographics and she is not gaining traction commensurate with her media exposure.

        Issac

        February 27, 2019 at 5:50 PM

  5. What is interesting is that while the US Libertarian party is discussing who to run as a direct assault on the left, the party according to county leaders is being infiltrated by a massive wave of self-identifying authoritarian ‘democratic’ socialists angling to be delegates.

    Robert

    February 26, 2019 at 6:30 PM

    • LP is utterly irrelevant in all states that could have electoral significance in the 2020 race.

      Issac

      February 27, 2019 at 7:53 AM

  6. As I predicted, Bernie is going to be the candidate to beat. He has much higher numbers than the competiton with all minorities. The “he is too white,” appears to be something more often said from the right than the progressive base.

    Issac

    February 26, 2019 at 8:36 PM

  7. PerezHBD

    February 26, 2019 at 10:33 PM

    • If he wants to run, he has to actually RUN and not drop hints. Biden has done this before, I don’t take him seriously.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 26, 2019 at 11:21 PM

      • Right. I’d be more interested in an analysis of who Biden is hoping to hurt by feigning interest in a run.

        Curle

        February 26, 2019 at 11:26 PM

      • I think that Biden definitely evinces cognitive decline, and he knows it. He will humiliate himself if he runs.

        Daniel Heneghan

        February 27, 2019 at 2:27 AM

  8. The worst you can say about polls is that knowing how people would vote today means next to nothing. As an enthusiastic supporter of Giuliani in the ‘08 R primary, believe me I know.

    Curle

    February 26, 2019 at 11:24 PM

  9. As of right now I would take an even bet that Bernie or Biden will win the 2020 presidential election.

    S Marta Ss

    February 26, 2019 at 11:27 PM

  10. I am baffled by Kamala Harris’s racial identification. Her mother is from India, her father is black, and all her adult life she has identified as completely black rather than mixed.
    There’s a nearly universal rule that a person in the US who is mixed white and nonwhite is completely nonwhite rather than mixed race, the occasional Hapa excepted. But when it’s a mixture of two different nonwhite races I would (naively?) think that multiracial would be the normal result. Not Harris.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    February 27, 2019 at 12:25 AM

    • Kamala looks more black than Indian, but even if she hardly looked black at all she would claim that race, because it has so many more Pokemon points.

      Take Valerie Jarrett for example. Hardly looks black at all. Still identifies that way.

      Lowe

      February 27, 2019 at 10:05 AM

  11. Polls probably aren’t too predictive this far out.

    I can’t see Trump losing unless there is a recession before Election Day (barring any other major unforeseen calamity).

    JayMan

    February 27, 2019 at 9:27 AM

    • Polls predicted Trump in the lead in the summer of 2015, and people said “the polls are too far out, this lead will go away,” but it never did.

      I don’t see a Democratic Trump coming in and and surprising us. Bernie and Biden shoe-ins, and I don’t think Biden actually intends to run.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 27, 2019 at 9:31 AM


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