Lion of the Blogosphere

Predictions

I haven’t logged into Predictit.org since my failed guess that Mike Pompeo wrote the anonymous op-ed (now I think I was totally wrong about that, Nikki Haley surely wrote it).

I’ve already written that Biden isn’t going to run and Bernie will win the Democratic nomination, so I put some money on that!

Then I saw the Mike Bloomberg bet, and I say that Bloomberg has much closer to a zero percent chance of running than 30-something percent, he surely is smart enough to realize he’d be throwing out his money by doing that.

Then I get to the Donald Trump impeachment bet. Remember it only takes a majority of the House, which is controlled by Trump-hating Democrats, to impeach. Republicans impeached Clinton, and Democrats hate Trump a lot more than Republicans hated Clinton, and the whole purpose of Mueller’s report will be to create the appearance of impropriety to give Democrats an excuse to vote to impeach.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 27, 2019 at 9:52 AM

Posted in Politics

29 Responses

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  1. Its February 2019. I think much of this stuff is fixed behind closed doors so powerless people really can’t make predictions. I am going to try anyway:

    1. Trump probably doesn’t run for a second term due to his age, not really wanting the job in the first place, and it will be explained to him that his legal problems will go away if he doesn’t run.

    2. This is still the Republicans’ turn to hold the White House (they swap every eight years), so a Republican will win the presidential election, especially if Trump doesn’t run. The elites hate Trump enough that they might violate the rule about the White House switching every eight years if he is the nominee.

    3. Because of #1 and #2, Mike Pence is most likely to win the Presidential election. i would put his chances at about 65%, and this takes into account the chance Trump does run.

    4. The Democratic nominee -remember this is the year for the Donks to take a dive- will most likely be Hillary Clinton. Its very unlikely to be any of the candidates who have already announced, expect possibly Sanders. It could be someone no one has heard of, who comes out of nowhere during the primaries.

    Ed

    February 27, 2019 at 11:04 AM

    • “1. Trump probably doesn’t run for a second term due to his age, not really wanting the job in the first place, and it will be explained to him that his legal problems will go away if he doesn’t run.”

      This is totally wrong. Everyone runs for president a second term. I believe that Lyndon Johnson is the only President in U.S. history not to run for a second FULL term, but he served more than four years because he took over when Kennedy died, so he did run for re-election once.

      As long as Trump is President, he can’t be put in prison. But once he leaves office, there’s no longer any protection. He can no longer pardon his family.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 27, 2019 at 11:10 AM

      • In four short years he met his every goal
        He seized the whole southwest from Mexico
        Made sure the tariffs fell
        And made the English sell the Oregon territory
        He built an independent treasury
        Having done all this he sought no second term
        But precious few have mourned the passing of
        Mister James K. Polk, our eleventh president
        Young Hickory, Napoleon of the Stump

        owentt

        February 27, 2019 at 11:49 AM

      • Thank you! James Polk, only U.S. president not to run for re-election.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 27, 2019 at 12:50 PM

      • Polk (underrated) and Buchanan are the only presidents to do the full get elected and then stop after one term.

        Tyler served nearly a full term after Harrison died and got coaxed by the Democrats into not running for another in exchange for rejoining the party.

        Arthur served nearly a full term but put only token efforts for his party’s nomination as he was near death.

        Coolidge quit after only one elected term. I think he was tired/unhealthy as well.

        But agree with main point that Trump loves this job and will run again.

        Jokah Macpherson

        February 27, 2019 at 12:12 PM

      • Buchanan did run, but failed to win the Democratic nomination for a second term.

        Polk is the only president in U.S. history to voluntarily not run for re-election, and he campaigned for the job in the first place with a pledge that he would be a one-term president.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 27, 2019 at 12:55 PM

      • Hayes also did it.

        Richard

        February 27, 2019 at 12:59 PM

      • Yes! Hayes, like Polk, pledged not to run for re-election, and kept his word.

        Trump has never pledged not to run for re-election.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 27, 2019 at 1:02 PM

      • Lame duck.

        IHTG

        February 27, 2019 at 3:36 PM

      • Lion, I don’t know if you’re planning to place any bets on this, but a word to the wise:

        Do yourself a favor, take whatever you were planning to bet, and instead go to Foxwoods. Walk to the first craps table you see, place it all on “pass.”

        You’ll be glad you did.

        njguy73

        February 27, 2019 at 11:21 PM

      • Re owentt’s comment: in the first three or four lines I thought you were writing a parody of “Pancho and Lefty.” Great stuff.

        Townes

        February 28, 2019 at 10:16 PM

  2. O/T, though is in keeping with your prediction that MSM lurks your site for content. The Atlantic has an article on the “Class Ceiling.” How wealthy people are paid better than proles for the same work in elite professions.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/02/class-ceiling-laurison-friedman-elite-jobs/582175/

    Portlander

    February 27, 2019 at 11:42 AM

    • thank you, great article

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 27, 2019 at 12:47 PM

      • White people are just better at social organization. That’s all to it.

        Proles have their own exclusive elite club known as unionized jobs that keeps NAMs away.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        February 27, 2019 at 12:54 PM

      • Article tried to spin it back to race, but I’m thinking if data really showed race was a bigger determinate than social class they’d have run with the card front and center.

        Portlander

        February 27, 2019 at 7:42 PM

      • Elite entities hire token NAMs as to appear not being racist, while prole entities are forced to hire NAMs to comply with legal requirements pertaining to work discrimination.

        These entities do interact with one another, and their roles could even switch.

        For example, Lion made a post about a prole entity like an airline company wanting to cease business with an elite law firm, because all the partners were White.

        So yes, it’s all about race.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        February 27, 2019 at 11:53 PM

  3. 1. If Biden really wanted to run, he’d have been working on it by now. There’s always a chance he gives it a try because he’s bored with retirement but he’ll do as well as he did the previous two times he ran: Zero delegates.

    2. The Dem establishment chooses the nominee by controlling the essential and predictably loyal votes of southern black church ladies. They aren’t going to pick Bernie. (Kamala will be 500 delegates ahead by the time California votes in early March.)

    3. Bloomberg doesn’t look dumb enough to run. 30% is crazy.

    4. Pelosi isn’t dumb and she remembers the consequences of the Clinton impeachment. She will work hard to prevent an impeachment vote. I trust her to keep the ship upright and keep impeachment off the agenda.

    If impeachment does happen, Trump’s re-election chances rise 25% immediately.

    owentt

    February 27, 2019 at 11:57 AM

    • “Pelosi isn’t dumb and she remembers the consequences of the Clinton impeachment. She will work hard to prevent an impeachment vote. I trust her to keep the ship upright and keep impeachment off the agenda.”

      Pelosi may not be dumb, but the results of a Clinton impeachment don’t apply to any future Trump impeachment. Clinton had the entire media on his side rooting for them. I don’t think Trump can expect the same favorable conditions.

      Mike Street Station

      March 1, 2019 at 6:35 AM

  4. I’m not sure what to make of the impeachment market. Yes, House democrats hate Trump but it’s unclear when Mueller will release a report and how damning it will be. I think if there is little in the report, Dems will avoid impeachment because it will not play well with swing voters so close to the election. If there is a bombshell in the report, then Dems may avoid impeachment because they might prefer to face Trump in the election rather than Pence/Kasich/Romney. If there is no report, an impeachment is extremely unlikely.

    What I do know is this: Trump still president at end of 2019 is nearly a lock (pretty much the only risk is the small chance of death). Mitch is not going to allow the senate to convict trump, certainly not within that timeframe. The price on it is not especially attractive at the moment, but inevitably some sort of new vague revelation will happen that will push it down.

    sicdrag

    February 27, 2019 at 12:00 PM

    • I think if there is little in the report, Dems will avoid impeachment because it will not play well with swing voters so close to the election.

      That’s not the Democratic Party I’m seeing. Green New Deal, afterbirth abortion — where’s this deference to moderate voters?

      Richard

      February 27, 2019 at 1:06 PM

      • “That’s not the Democratic Party I’m seeing. Green New Deal, afterbirth abortion — where’s this deference to moderate voters?”

        Exactly.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 27, 2019 at 1:07 PM

  5. It is acknowledged that anyone from the elephantine gang will be ignored, when Trump hogs the spotlight again for the Republicans in 2020.

    The real focus is these cast of rascals:

    https://www.politico.com/interactives/2019/2020-democratic-presidential-candidates-list/

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    February 27, 2019 at 12:44 PM

    • Trump hogs the spotlight for the whole world. One reason his re-election is a sure thing.

      Andrew E.

      February 27, 2019 at 1:22 PM

  6. MEH 0910

    February 27, 2019 at 2:30 PM

  7. Kamala Harris at 21 cents is a steal. I put $100 on her.

    Kosher Kowboy

    February 27, 2019 at 3:14 PM

  8. When I clicked on the link to the article about class in The Atlantic, I git an ad tgat William Shatner is apoearing in Marin. Howzat happen?

    Marty

    February 27, 2019 at 5:12 PM

  9. I’d go at least four to one that Biden does run, given Harris isn’t gaining the kind of traction her earned media should be permitting and that Sanders is now taking a walk-off. I would; however, put at-least even odds on Sanders getting the nomination either way. Ten to one Bloomberg won’t run because he will back Biden or Harris and he isn’t stupid enough to run up against the money behind either one. Can’t give odds on impeachment yet. It will depend on if neocons can convince Trump to commit to Venezuelan intervention.

    Issac

    February 27, 2019 at 6:03 PM

  10. My biggest PredictIt win ever was betting on @POTUS tweets with three hours to go.

    Jokah Macpherson

    February 27, 2019 at 8:58 PM

  11. […] establishment Democrats want Biden to run, but Biden doesn’t seem that interested. That’s why bet money on Biden NOT running. I already won my bet on Bloomberg not running. But I wish I had bet a lot […]


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