Lion of the Blogosphere

Quinniapac Texas poll

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2602

I think this is a strange state for this type of poll, because Texas isn’t a swing state. What’s important for predicting the winner of the 2020 presidential election is how the candidates compare in key swing states.

However, this poll shows what polls showed back in 2016, that Bernie Sanders would do very well against Trump. Joe Biden also. Kamala Harris is much weaker. A minority woman is just not a very likeable candidate.

Furthermore, when it comes to the shy voter bias (also known as the Bradley effect), it’s possible that Harris’ numbers are inflated by white (including white Hispanic) respondents who want to virtue-signal to the pollster that they will vote for the minority women, but then in the actual voting booth they will be more comfortable voting for an old white man, even if that old white man is Trump.

It has nothing to do with policies. Bernie and Biden are supposedly on opposite ends of the Democratic Party, with Bernie being a socialist and Biden being a moderate. But people seem to forget that swing voters are a lot more into personalities and other non-policy reasons for voting. If people knew what policies they wanted, then they probably wouldn’t be swing voters in the first place.

In 2016, the Democratic establishment ignored polls which showed that Trump was close to even with Hillary but way behind Bernie. “The polls don’t know anything, Hillary will beat Trump because she has woman power! And Trump can’t possibly win because he’s racist.” Well that didn’t work out very well for Democrats, did it?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 28, 2019 at 11:28 AM

Posted in Politics

21 Responses

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  1. Correction: Kamala Harris is a minority woman who is not a very likeable candidate. Nikki Haley or Condoleezza Rice would do quite well I think.

    emanations & penumbras

    February 28, 2019 at 11:34 AM

    • I don’t like either of those two. Haley probably wrote the secret anti-Trump op-ed, and Rice is a Bushie.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 28, 2019 at 11:35 AM

      • Lion, you keep saying this, but do you have any real support? It’s nonsense. She’s a politician; successful politicians take credit for everything they can. They do not pursue anonymity any more than Coca-Cola pursues anonymity. They are also accustomed to constantly compromising “doing the right thing” in pursuit of power, so they’re not inclined to then risk power and ruin their careers by “doing the right thing”. Ergo, the writer of the op-ed was almost certainly not a politician. Probably a bureaucrat, a soldier, or some other staffer.

        Wency

        February 28, 2019 at 2:10 PM

      • One of Kelleyanne Conway’s former employees, Cliff Sims, said Conway was the #1 leaker in the Trump WH. That doesn’t make it true. But it leaves me wondering why one would suspect Haley over Conway.

        destructure

        February 28, 2019 at 5:29 PM

      • Maybe you don’t, but they might poll well since neither has a whole lot of baggage to speak of.

        emanations & penumbras

        February 28, 2019 at 8:19 PM

  2. ” If people knew what policies they wanted, then they probably wouldn’t be swing voters in the first place.”

    Good point!

    Mike Street Station

    February 28, 2019 at 12:00 PM

  3. Biden has a disgusting salesman-like personality, just like Trump. But at least he has a (corny) sense of humor, a department in which the president is utterly lacking.

    Anthony

    February 28, 2019 at 12:14 PM

    • What? Trump is the funniest President ever. His sense of humor is fantastic.

      Peterike

      March 1, 2019 at 1:38 AM

  4. If you believe in polls, then it appears that Texas is a swing state

    borjniini

    February 28, 2019 at 12:52 PM

    • I believe the fakestream media has a lot more power than most other Trump supporters give it credit for. Never doubt the power of propaganda. Four years of anti-Trump reporting is taking a toll and turning swing voters against Trump.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 28, 2019 at 12:56 PM

      • O/t – It might not be too late for you and your NYC commenters – but the Strand Books is hosting a talk tonight with Andrew McCabe, the deputy director of the FBI who was fired during Trump’s inception of the White House. He will be discussing his book.

        https://www.strandbooks.com/event/andrew-mccabe-the-threat

        There should be tight security.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        February 28, 2019 at 3:13 PM

      • I agree but the anti-Trump propaganda won’t be enough to get them to vote for Harris…even if most of the people who comment on the blogs I read have already proclaimed her the next President.

        I hate to say it but if the close Senate race is any indication Texas could be moving towards being a swing state. Republicans can not afford to lose a huge state like that.

        Jay Fink

        February 28, 2019 at 8:34 PM

    • If Texas is in play come November 2020, Trump is as good as done for. A Republican presidential candidate has virtually zero chance of winning the election without Texas in the GOP column.

      Oswald Spengler

      February 28, 2019 at 4:46 PM

      • As a card carrying member of the “Demography is Destiny” club, once we lose Texas, the GOP ceases to be a national party.

        Mike Street Station

        March 1, 2019 at 6:52 AM

  5. Maybe Texas isn’t a swing state, but they are famous for their swing music.

    Google “Texas swing music.”

    gothamette

    February 28, 2019 at 3:50 PM

    • The term is “Western swing.” Fun Lion-relevant piece of trivia: Western swing band Asleep at the Wheel has as its lead singer one of the few Jews in country music, Ray Benson! They are based in Texas, even though Benson is originally from Philadelphia, PA. Hmm, does being in country music make him prole? Even though he has a self-actualizing career?

      Hermes

      February 28, 2019 at 6:00 PM

      • There’s a subset called Texas Swing.

        gothamette

        March 1, 2019 at 8:26 AM

  6. Off topic:
    For once Canadian politics is more entertaining than American politics.
    All hell broke loose yesterday. Trudope’s former attorney general testified before a parliamentary committee that Trudeau and others from his office pressured her to drop charges against a corrupt engineering firm from Quebec–because of an up coming election.

    His former AG, Jody Wilson-Raybould, is First Nations and female, by the way. Turdoh appointed her because of these qualities, but it turns out she also believes inn following the rule of law! What a shock to the Liberals!

    https://www.therebel.media/jody-wilson-raybould-testimony-justin-trudeau-snc-lavalin-scandal-news-rebel-media-ezra-levant-show-february-27-2019

    Rosenmops

    February 28, 2019 at 8:33 PM

    • One of your fellow commenter hailing from Canuckistan made a remark that Trump the Meriprolestani is likely to outlast the corruptible pretty boy, Turdope, after this scandal.

      Oh, what a travesty!

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      February 28, 2019 at 11:54 PM

      • Indeed! Trump will almost certainly outlast Turdoh!

        Rosenmops

        March 1, 2019 at 1:22 PM

  7. Hey Lion, what about the kid from Rego Patk? Think he’s going to turn out to be white?

    Vipltd

    February 28, 2019 at 11:44 PM


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