Lion of the Blogosphere

Atlantic article, why people believe what they believe.

Link to article (which is two years old).

People believe what they believe for reasons other than that it’s true. It’s one of the reasons why spreading facts that prove the truth of HBD are useless for changing people’s minds. They will just say you’re a racist. As I’ve stated before, the only way to change people’s minds is to create the perception that other people in their tribe believe in HBD. Pretending to be a liberal college professor who always votes for Democrats, who realized that HBD is true but keeps it quiet for fear of being fired from his job, is far more powerful than reciting facts from Arthur Jensen’s books.

The woman who wrote the article seems to be suffering cognitive dissonance about “climate change,” because she needs to mention several times that climate change is true, despite the fact that everything else in the article supports the scenario that people just believe it because other people in their tribe believe it.

“Most people have no reason to have a position on climate change aside from expression of their identity,” Kahan says. “Their personal behavior isn’t going to affect the risk that they face. They don’t matter enough as a voter to determine the outcome on policies or anything like this. These are just badges of membership in these groups, and that’s how most people process the information.”

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

July 17, 2019 at EDT am

Posted in Science

75 Responses

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  1. Humans are rationalizing, self-deceiving creatures who operate in bad faith, no doubt. We all lie to ourselves *even and especially* when we’re aware of the lie. Dostoevsky understood this well.

    A superior human can turn his mind away from a falsehood given facts and time. The masses are only swayed by popular opinion.

    fakeemail

    July 17, 2019 at EDT am

  2. There’s believing in HBD, and then there’s being fixated on it. You, Lion, are fixated on it.

    I suspect it’s because you went to a shitty law school, which ruined the prestige of your Ivy undergrad, and then you entered a mediocre profession where you make only an hourly wage. Now your life sucks, you’ve fallen below your expectations for somebody who prides himself on being bright. So you’re bitter. And like a lot of bitter old guys, you’ve turned to prejudice to make yourself feel better. Yea your life might be in the toilet, as you reason, but at least you can look down on the guys on the subway with black or brown skin. You may not consciously think this, but that’s what you believe deep down and you know it. But guess what, those black and brown guys probably lead a fuller, richer, and healthier life than an embittered bigot like you can ever imagine. Let that sink in. Lion, just a little bit of advice, if you want happiness in life: drop the hate and just live to enjoy yourself, not put others down. Or you will die even more miserable than you are living now, a closeted bigot.

    JohnofBoston

    July 17, 2019 at EDT am

    • This is false, I was a proponent of HBD before I had reason to be bitter. HBD is merely the truth, but of course I am now more aware that high IQ doesn’t bring success in life the way some commenters on HBD blogs think it does.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 17, 2019 at EDT am

      • Ooph, they’re finally coming for you Lion.

        Andrew E.

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • This raises an interesting meta-intellectual function question. What kind of intellect is it that noticed that high IQ was not ‘all that’ as some non-high IQ types like to say?

        Why did so many high IQ types think high IQ was so determining of success for so long? Research data did not support their view. Real world observed results did not support their view.

        HIgh IQ is really a kind of sophisticated servant class, high end lackeys at best. The rise of high IQ types in tech and finance has made lifestyles worse since the 1970s.

        It looks like high IQ was itself just a badge of membership in a group that believed what was not true, a group full of members who took forever to notice – a sign of low intelligence – what was demonstrated was the high IQ type is in fact a kind of oxymoron.

        Atlantean Perception

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • One part of the reason is that Charles Murray oversold IQ in the Bell Curve. He presented some misleading statistics, or statistics presented in a misleading way.

        People promoting the benefits of IQ over-focus on high-IQ billionaires like Bill Gates, and ignore dumb billionaires like John Catsimatidis. And ignore the many other people just as smart as Bill Gates who are just washed out computer programmers.

        And also, the HBD crowd tends to overlap with libertarian economics. They believe in the Ayn Rand theory that people’s wealth is exactly equal to the “value” they created, and how did they create that “value” if not with high IQ?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Of course IQ doesn’t guarantee success, but then what does? Ok maybe “get born into a rich family” or “luck” or something like that, but as far as personal attributes go, IQ is pretty good, and also happens to be measurable. “Hard work”, “communication skills”, “likeability” are all nice but I don’t think they guarantee success any more than IQ does. Charisma might be the best alternative, but there are plenty of charismatic folks who end up as failed salesmen, con artists, gang leaders, etc and get done in by their lack of IQ.

        ack-acking

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • “Why did so many high IQ types think high IQ was so determining of success for so long? Research data did not support their view. Real world observed results did not support their view.”

        Yes and no. If you grouped people by IQ, you would see that most groups were more successful on average than the one below it. But there will always be outliers who are much more (or less) successful than others in their group. And outliers don’t represent the average.

        There are plenty of smart, successful people. But the most successful people aren’t always the smartest. Just because someone is good (or bad) on paper doesn’t mean they have (or lack) other attributes to get the job done. Also, why would someone who was a straight A student, offered a great job with a top corporation and working their way to the corner office quit to start their own company when most new businesses fail? Or why would they work 70 hours a week for 20 years just for the possibility of making CEO some day? Only a workaholic or megalomaniac would put themselves through that for an outside chance to be top dog. It’s much easier to settle for the safe corporate job working 50 hours a week. They’ll still live comfortably without the blood, sweat and tears. It’s much easier for someone who’s had to struggle to keep struggling all the way to the top.

        destructure

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Intelligence is subject to Berkson’s paradox. If you’re really smart and that’s all you’ve got going for you, you can still get by with a fighting chance but you’ll tend to lose out to people who are not only smart but also athletic, good looking, socially connected, charismatic, etc.

        But the dumb people with nothing else going for them aren’t even on the radar.

        Jokah Macpherson

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Stan Adams

        July 18, 2019 at EDT am

    • If this is true, it means that Lion’s Serena Williams posts were troll posts. Wow.

      My fixation on HBD is primarily driven by hatred for smug white people that I know in real life who believe a bunch of shit that isn’t true because it’s politically and socially convenient while being absolutely convinced of their moral and intellectual superiority.

      Horace Pinker

      July 17, 2019 at EDT am

    • This is an inadvertently great post, exemplifying the truth of what fakeemail said immediately above, i.e. that humans operate in bad faith. For this guy, Lion is a “bigot” simply because his observations depart from the self-image black/brown people have about themselves. Lion might treat everyone he meets, regardless of what they look like, with perfect courtesy, but he’d nevertheless be a “bigot” for this guy if, for example, he stood well back from subway platforms to reduce the chance some black or muslim loon pushes him onto the tracks. As for blacks leading “richer lives,” one really doesn’t know what to say. Back in the ‘70s-80s, when whites actually did rule the roost rather than just standing accused of doing so, blacks and their acolytes would tell us how much better their sex lives were than ours. Probably this poster is just parroting that old trope. Oh well, maybe he hasn’t seen the Disneyland video. Now dem’s some rich lives!

      Marty

      July 17, 2019 at EDT am

    • Hahaha.

      Do you get paid by the hour?

      Let me give you a piece of advice: The shaming language doesn’t work like it used to.

      When the shills come out with their flak, you know Lion is over the target.

      Thanks for playing, though!

      Keyser Soze

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • My comment was for johnofboston…if not obvious.

        Keyser Soze

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • JohnofBoston — Whether Leon has issues is a canard having nothing to do with the validity of HBD. Regardless, the prevailing prejudice of the day is bigotry against whites in general and white men in particular. If you’re going to lecture others then you should start by showing us where you’ve argued against it.

      destructure

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Lion’s main problem is that he hates himself. Many times he’s said that Judaism “sucks so bad” (can’t he at least express his disappointment with Judaism with more imaginative language than an ’80s adolescent?), hates Jewish cooking, has let it slip that his mother exasperates him, and his family is made up of people who aren’t fit to share his exalted company (although he graciously deigns to attend their meaningless functions).

      Because he hates himself he projects that on the outside world, seeing anti-Semitism under every goy’s armpit.

      gothamette

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • I explained why it sucks, and the New York Times says the same thing: https://lionoftheblogosphere.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/judaism-sucks/

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • OK, I got around to clicking on the stupid article, and it’s the usual Lion bullshit.

        If you think Judaism sucks, then GTFO. Oh, wait, you can’t leave Judaism? Then it’s not a religion, it’s a race.

        Wait a minute, it’s a religion. But it sucks.

        No, it’s a race….

        I think this explains why Lion is such a fucked up miserable mess.

        gothamette

        July 19, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Lion hates himself? He’s always struck me as a happy-go-lucky guy with a dry sense of humor. He seems like someone who’d be fun to smoke pot with. *If* there are in fact losers in Lion’s family I’m sure they’re few and far between and they *should* feel honored when he graces them with his magnificent presence.

        Let’s cool it with the Lion hate and gothamette, I think an apology is in order.

        Horace Pinker

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • I only smoked pot once, and I didn’t inhale, not because I didn’t want to inhale, but because it made me cough. I don’t think I was able to absorb enough smoke to get high.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • You should try edibles or vape pens whenever NJ or NY gets around to legalizing pot. It’s an incredibly nice way to relax after an annoying day at work and I’m sure your readers would look forward to stoned Star Trek reviews.

        I normally support the stigma against vaping, but vape pens that are filled with cannabis oil are very convenient and close to odorless so I occasionally make an exception.

        Horace Pinker

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • gothamette is spot on, I don’t see any need to apologize. Lion has a quirky sense of humor but happy go lucky? Nope. He has a lot of resentment but he’s never made it clear HOW he wishes his life were different/ better.

        I don’t see his HBD writings as hateful or wanting to put himself above others to compensate for perceived shortcomings. He’s just socially dumb enough (saying that affectionately, and I am the same way) to keep saying the truth as he sees it despite the social fallout. I think this was a question on the INTJ test, do you stick to a perceived truth despite it being socially unpopular.

        Society in general grossly underplays the role of genetics in intelligence and personality. I would go so far as to say blank slatism is an underpin of dysgenic fertility. Think of all the intelligent people who really think it’s better to adopt than have their own children. etc.

        toomanymice

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Lion doesn’t hate himself; he just needs a woman. But he’s obsessed with unattainable shiksa goddesses. If he *must* have that, he should try going to Eastern Europe to find a mail order bride. It has been done.

        Or he could go Asian.

        fakeemail

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • I second Horace on all counts. Lion, go roadtrip to Pittsfield or something on your day off and pick up some sativa. Might change your outlook on life and stoned trek posting would be pretty rad.

        hdo

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Nope, not apologizing for anything.

        I hope everyone is watching the Moon specials on PBS. Apart from one little section, they were very respectful and very good.

        Let’s all remember that the 50th anniversary is this July 20th. Apollo 11 was the greatest engineering feat ever, don’t argue with me about this.

        God bless America.

        gothamette

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • I’d say The Lion is high in negative emotion, an attribute which I theorize is conferred by his Ashkenazi genes, and was ultimately caused by the same selective pressures which caused high Ashkenazi IQ. If The Lion were dumb and happy, this blog wouldn’t be worth reading.

      I’d also say he’s been influenced by having rubbed elbows with the Elites, and then not becoming one of them. I dated a woman who went to The Spence School and then attended an Ivy. Knowing lots of people more successful than her was a source of unhappiness.

      None of this has ever caused The Lion to blame blacks for the level of purchasing power that his income provides him. One thing he did blame was the H1B program. If you want to read the work of a professional economist who agrees with everything The Lion says, and who openly admits to being bitter about having been screwed by the system, you can look at Eric Weinstein’s research.

      https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/how-why-government-universities-industry-create-domestic-labor-shortages-of-scientists-high-tech-workers

      and I quote:
      “That study was a key link in a chain of evidence leading to an entirely different view of the real origins of the Immigration Act of 1990s and the H1-B visa classification. In this alternative account, American industry and Big Science convinced official Washington to put in place a series of policies that had little to do with any demographic concerns. Their aims instead were to keep American scientific employers from having to pay the full US market price of high skilled labor. They hoped to keep the US research system staffed with employees classified as “trainees,” “students,” and “post-docs” for the benefit of employers. The result would be to render the US scientific workforce more docile and pliable to authority and senior researchers by attempting to ensure this labor market sector is always flooded largely by employer-friendly visa holders who lack full rights to respond to wage signals in the US labor market.”

      . . .

      The first time I can personally remember being sure that all of us were getting lied to happened in early 2002 after the burst of the dot com bubble and 9/11. I was sitting in my grandmother’s living room feeling down because I couldn’t get a job. In an upbeat voice she said: “But the Wall Street Journal says the tech companies STILL can’t find enough workers to fill those jobs”. In a monotone I replied: “no. that’s a lie.”

      MoreSigmasThanYou

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • [I’d say The Lion is high in negative emotion, an attribute which I theorize is conferred by his Ashkenazi genes, and was ultimately caused by the same selective pressures which caused high Ashkenazi IQ

        One of the funny ironies of this blog is, going by lion’s own views on HBD, his personality and place in life probably have more to do with his inborn traits than his prole upbringing or childhood cultural influences.

        I don’t understand the shiksa goddess thing. There are plenty of beautiful jewish women. Just yesterday one of my kids saw a physical therapist with a glaringly jewish last name and she was absolutely beautiful (and blond, but pretty sure that was fake).

        toomanymice

        July 18, 2019 at EDT am

      • >I don’t understand the shiksa goddess thing.

        For a lot of guys it isn’t even about looks. You know the stereotype– high strung and ball busters. Adamant refusal of any division of labor where they’re doing more than 50.0% of domestic work and child rearing. Men want a supportive mate not an antagonistic and competitive relationship where the partner despises a situation in which 95% of the remainder of the populace would consider normal and unremarkable.

        That dynamic makes the guy feel (a) unloved/unappreciated and (b) less loving toward her and wanting to provide for her and the family. Way too transactional and extractive.

        anon

        July 18, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Yeah well the universe made our Lion for value creation not value transference. Value Transference doesn’t require class, but class can make it more effective, and at every level of social class, value transference can pay much more than value creation.

        As for his preferences, that seems to be some strange law of the universe that I don’t fully understand. Some types are hyper attracted to very specific other types. Jewish men are way too attracted to blonde shiksa goddesses. For fat neckbeards it’s Asian waifus. For black dudes and trashy overweight white women there seems to be some good mutual attraction, although I would say the black dudes are on average more thirsty and color struck.

        Actually, the nerdy white man thing can work pretty well on Asians as long as the nerdiness is applied to education or what the West now maligns as a “beta provider” job, as opposed to video games and collecting children’s toys. Just look at these government issued warnings:
        https://www.cnn.com/2016/04/21/asia/china-foreign-spies/index.html
        Too bad Lion is turned off by Chinese women. A lot of them would find him attractive.

        That being said, competing for young domestic blondes where Lion lives is super hard. There are blondes in/from Eastern European former Communist countries who aren’t out of reach. A major caveat is that most of the worst horror stories of women destroying men’s lives involve women from Eastern European former Communist countries marrying men in the West. Scary stuff happens.

        That being said, sometimes it turns out really well. I know one couple with a blonde Russian woman who married an older American man on short notice to obtain a Visa. Now she has citizenship, and they’re still happily married.

        I can’t see Lion taking that much risk. If he hasn’t made a play that big in the past, I wouldn’t expect it in the future.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        July 18, 2019 at EDT pm

      • anon:

        That’s what everyone says, so I guess where there’s smoke there’s fire. Right?

        Is that really all there is to the attraction to blonde hair? I guess that’s a fairly non-Jewish feature, but there are also non-Jewish men attracted to that type. I’ve seen photos of Hugh Hefner showing off his girlfriends who lived in his mansion with him, and you really couldn’t tell them apart. They all had their hair nails and makeup done the same, same body build, age, and same color of blonde hair. I don’t think Heff was trying to escape Jewish princesses.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        July 18, 2019 at EDT pm

      • You realize Hugh Hefner wasn’t Jewish, right? He was a Methodist from Nebraska.

        PV van der Byl

        July 19, 2019 at EDT pm

      • “That being said, sometimes it turns out really well. I know one couple with a blonde Russian woman who married an older American man on short notice to obtain a Visa. Now she has citizenship, and they’re still happily married.”

        I know a couple like that too, so it IS possible.

        Mike Street Station

        July 20, 2019 at EDT am

    • John of Boston,
      As fascinating as this hypothetical dive into Lion’s psyche is, it doesn’t really have any explanatory power for why he, or anyone else for that matter, is interested in HBD. A more likely explanation for why HBDers, in general, emphasize HBD a lot, is twofold:

      1. HBD explains a lot of things about observed reality. Not everything to be sure, but a lot.

      2. Most other people, who are not aware of or reject HBD, offer less likely, and sometimes (when they influence government policy) outright harmful, explanations.

      Georgia Resident

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Yeah it’s the nail in the forehead from the old Youtube video, except it’s not some crazy chick you’re dealing with but Western civilization at large. You want to shout, “Hey this explains a lot, let’s remove this fucking nail and see if it fixes things!” but all you get is, “No let’s talk about privilege,” and it gets exasperating quickly.

        Jokah Macpherson

        July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Of course. The most ardent supporters of “HBD” are always people with high IQs, but low conscientiousness and bad social skills, who are bitter because they have underperformed what their IQs would have predicted.

      SC

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • The most ardent opponents of “HBD” are smug, middle-class strivers, who are eager to boost their own stock by shitting on the working class. Paul Fussell touched on this in Class: A Guide Through the American Status System.
        **
        I dated a SWPL in college. All of her views and opinions were based on licking her finger and sticking it in the air to see which way the wind was blowing. For her, believing what everyone else believed was “smart”. And going against it was “stupid”. This is what passed for “social skills” among her and her family.

        So why would she throw herself at a prole like me? Status whoring, natch. I looked great on paper — tall, athletic, attractive and smart with high future income potential. I was the perfect guy… if only I could be less frustrating and become as desperately shallow as her. I dumped her in disgust.

        destructure

        July 18, 2019 at EDT pm

    • It could be also the other way around, people who are successful and happy don’t have to tolerate the impact of diversity and multi culturalism and therefore don’t develop the HBD concept since they are separated by class rather than bio and derision towards lower classes is pretty common among certain kind of people, the word “deplorable” comes to mind. The thing is, naturally there are more people with average success than with extreme success and they all have to deal with the implications of bio diversity, they just know they are not allowed to say it loud but when they vote it is behind curtains.

      Hashed

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • People who have had succesful careers are shielded from the truth of just how bad society gets when low IQ groups run things. This is because they live in rich neighborhoods and work with other high IQ people. Whilst they may possibly be aware of HBD, to them it is just facts on a paper isolated from real world consequences, they do not have any first hand experience of how terrible things can get when incapable people get hired for important jobs. They have never experienced the everyday waste, crime, destruction and collapse that always occurs when blacks are put in charge of a society. And because they have never experienced just how bad things can get, they assume that others that “obsess” over HBD do so only out of their own bitterness.

      DataExplorer

      July 18, 2019 at EDT am

    • Are you the same guy who calls himself “Tiny Duck” on Steve Sailer’s blog at The Unz Review?

      Mister Triple 800

      July 19, 2019 at EDT am

  3. SJWism is religion for the irreligious. To be a SJW requires unwavering faith in the leftist creed not reasoned belief backed by evidence.

    Oswald Spengler

    July 17, 2019 at EDT am

  4. Otherwise known as “preference cascade”.

    a bee ee?

    July 17, 2019 at EDT am

  5. My very intelligent relatives continue to amaze me. Most of the time I am amongst the proles- gun-loving machinists and hourly drudge-workers. Two or three times a year I spend time with these smart liberals, of whom I am very fond. This last interaction was them saying how their favorite resort in Maine was going to be underwater soon because of global warming. The glaciers are melting and the icecaps are melting and the hole in the Ozone is back. It’s what all the smart people believe. When I express skepticism, that I’ve been hearing that cry for the last twenty-five years and I don’t see any beaches disappearing, I was told I had to listen to them because they were scientists.

    More like fish in a big school, twisting and turning with the rest of the mackerel, not knowing why.

    Oh yeah, and :”The economy can’t survive without immigrants! (only Jamaicans will pick apples).”

    Peyton Farquahr

    July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

  6. Yes, in general, people identify with a social group first, such as racial, cultural, class, some combination thereof, etc., and then conform their beliefs to those of the group.

    Tom

    July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

  7. All stuff and nonsense I say since a lot of these “insights” are based on studies which cant be replicated (ie were probably faked). So all this hang wringing over what will become of civilization if Lee McIntyre isnt obeyed instantly in his pronouncements is overblown.

    It is in fact the sensible position for a person to adopt not to believe any of these non-neutral “facts” that get waved at them. Why would it be a sound line of reasoning to reverse a position they currently hold knowing that
    a. changing positions has no or negligible effect on the quality of their life
    b. the people trying to get them to change their mind are biased actors and might be presenting only part of the story, over estimating the quality and certitude of the evidence, and suppressing or down playing contradictory evidence.
    c. Since the majority of studies arent replicable and are hence wrong to a greater or lesser degree, it is not sensible for a person to change their mind unless they can validate the data themselves

    ““Personally my own theory is that there’s a slide that happens,” McIntyre says. “This is why we need to teach critical thinking, and this is why we need to push back against false beliefs, because there are some people who are still redeemable , who haven’t made that full slide into denialism yet. I think once they’ve hit denial, they’re too far gone and there’s not a lot you can do to save them.

    There is the problem- under all this fact of cold dispassionate facts this is really a religious movement. If you agree with the Leftists you are “redeemed”, otherwise you “cant be saved”. I’d imagine that some sort of final solution is necessary for the intransigent who dont listen to Lee McIntyre.

    Net effect is that people sniff out this messianic religiosity over nonsense litmus test like the Trump crowd size and refuse to play ball with the questioners.

    Lion of the Turambar

    July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Good comment.

      destructure

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • You cannot trust other people’s data. They are faking them all the time, partly because most are intellectually lazy, partly because there is not much money in the truth. Here is a good example. Brake rotors are turned every time time a mechanic does your car’s brake. All info on the web suggests that brake will pulsate unless the rotors are turned. The reality is that the brakes pulsate when the pads are thin (when they are worn) due to self-oscillation, not due to uneven rotors. Simply replacing pads fixes pulsating too. About 10 billion dollars is wasted for completely unnecessary procedure each year just in the US.

      My 2¢

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Brake rotors are turned every time time a mechanic does your car’s brake.

        For the past 20 years, I haven’t been able to get the auto repair shop to turn my rotors, they always want to sell me a new set.

        Last year, I was getting some heavy front end vibration. The shop told me my rotors were warped, and sold me another new set. It fixed the problem.

        E. Rekshun

        July 18, 2019 at EDT am

      • I used to do my own brakes. If the rotors looked worn, I’d replace them. Otherwise, I’d reuse them as is. Some manufacturers even recommend against resurfacing rotors. And new rotors don’t cost that much more than turning them anyway. But I’m not a mechanic. That’s just what I did.

        destructure

        July 18, 2019 at EDT pm

  8. The problem with facts is that life is not a chess game where the field is limited, the rules are set and clear and the players play in turns. There are so many facts that nobody can derive any meaningful conclusion about the major questions and it all comes down to gut feelings. Once you have a gut feeling you start to tailor your reasoning around it, you wouldn’t read the books supporting your conclusions if you didn’t feel first those conclusions are correct.

    Hashed

    July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Earth is flat for 99.9% practical purposes.

      My 2¢

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • One doesn’t need to know everything about everything to have a pretty good handle on the major questions. Most facts aren’t even relevant to the major questions.

      destructure

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Bill James, the baseball stat guru who inspired the “Moneyball” techniques, once described the world as being like a chess game, except instead of an 8×8 board and 16 pieces per side, it’s a million by a million with hundreds of thousands of pieces. The idea that anyone can see ahead is ludicrous.

      njguy73

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

  9. Could Iran be Wiring The UAE’s Missing Oil Tanker With Explosives?

    https://pragmaticallydistributed.wordpress.com/2019/07/17/uae-oil-tanker-explosion/

    The US Navy had better not allow that UAE tanker – which disappeared under extremely suspicious circumstances – to approach any ports, other cargo ships, warships, oil terminals, or military bases in the Gulf before the Navy intercepts and searches every last inch of it for signs of Iranian sabotage.

    The most likely types of mischief Iran could cause with that tanker are –

    Convert the ship into a gigantic, floating suicide bomber by planting explosives onboard and then sailing it (perhaps with Iranian naval personnel posing as the original crew members) towards a desired target.
    Smuggle terrorists onboard who will launch onshore attacks later on.
    Spike the tanker’s oil cargo with an industrial chemical agent.

    If Iran places explosives onboard, docks the ship at a Gulf Arab port, or terminal, or other target, and then detonates those bombs, the following explosion would destroy any oil tankers nearby, blast docking machinery to the Moon, and knock out any surrounding port and energy infrastructure within the blast radius for at least a year.

    They could also hide terrorists aboard for onshore attacks; although this is less likely since onshore terrorism against the Gulf Arabs would not cause oil prices to spike like the other two possibilities.

    And were the tanker’s oil spiked with some sort of corrosive chemical agent, and then blended at a Gulf Arab refinery with oil from barrels carried by different tankers, the tainted oil from the UAE tanker could render unusable the oil from non-tainted barrels.

    Potentially, depending on the exact blending process and particular chemicals used, this could sabotage tens of millions of barrels of oil and no one may realize the damage until this unusable oil has already been shipped to refineries across the industrialized world.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • What are you talking about? Iran is a very friendly country. I know. I have friends that spent vacation there.

      My 2¢

      July 18, 2019 at EDT pm

  10. Lion, is Castimatidis really stupid?

    Ugly as sin, yes.

    Painfully inarticulate, yes.

    But, not actually stupid.

    He made too many good business decisions, seriatim, on his way to becoming a billionaire to simply have been lucky.

    PV van der Byl

    July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

  11. “The woman who wrote the article seems to be suffering cognitive dissonance about “climate change,” because she needs to mention several times that climate change is true, despite the fact that everything else in the article supports the scenario that people just believe it because other people in their tribe believe it.”

    One could just as easily say that about the other side. Do you think the average global warming denier rationally considers the facts and evidence? No, he believes what he believes because his tribe believes it. I think the probability that global warming is false is around 10%, which is around 10% higher than most media people believe, for this reason. But what I see with AGW deniers is a selective skepticism. They ask, rightly, if the climatologist might just be saying what the faculty chair wants to believe. But then they see a researcher who just so happens to be funded by the oil industry, and golly, he can’t possibly be biased in any way, can he?

    Alexander Turok

    July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Ideology/religion is an exponentially more powerful motivator than financial gain (ask a suicide bomber), so no, a researcher funded by the oil industry is no more likely to be biased than a purely academic researcher. Of course the academic researcher may be motivated by financial gain (in the form of his job) too.

      TWBC

      July 18, 2019 at EDT am

    • ” Do you think the average global warming denier rationally considers the facts and evidence? No, he believes what he believes because his tribe believes it. ”

      As a theory, AGW is extremely sloppy. It doesn’t make falsifiable predictions and it’s “evidence” seems to be based on computer modeling, not real experimentation. I’m hard pressed how such a slipshod “theory” on any other issue would be taken seriously by the same people who take AGW seriously.

      Mike Street Station

      July 20, 2019 at EDT am

  12. How did the commenters here start believing in HBD? Were there ‘tribal’ reasons? If it was just based on good arguments, how come it doesn’t scale?

    Jokah Macpherson

    July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • There are a small percentage of people who are immune to believing that the naked emperor is wearing clothes. This blog also attracts some people who aren’t like that, but are simply racists.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

    • HBD might be a pseudo-science in itself. But its origins aren’t outrageous, if one thinks that disciplines like Psychology, Anthropology and Sociology, all of which have influenced HBD, are worthy of studying and accrediting.

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 18, 2019 at EDT am

      • HBD is not pseudo-science. But climate-change “science,” with it’s talk of “radiative forcings,” perfect example. No one understand what a “radiative forcing” is–try to get anyone to explain the mathematics of it–but it sounds scientific.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        July 18, 2019 at EDT am

      • Radiative forcing doesn’t seem all that pseudo-scientific, just hard to measure how big the separate components of it are in the real world. Also might not be the best name for the quantity.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        July 18, 2019 at EDT pm

  13. Noted and notorious Penn scholar on immigration. Very good. I wouldn’t be surprised that she reads your blog.

    https://www.law.georgetown.edu/public-policy-journal/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2018/11/16-S-Debating-Immigration-Restriction.pdf

    Daniel Heneghan

    July 17, 2019 at EDT pm

  14. Climate change deniers are also just expressing tribal identity. The evidence that the earth is significantly warmer today in the past, and that sea levels are rising, is overwhelming. The evidence that human activity is the cause is not 100% clear, but can be inferred the same way that we can infer that cigarette smoking increases risk of cancer growth.

    Kahan is right that most people’s actions in daily life (‘I won’t fly on an airplane’) are inconsequential, but the alternative is to either recognize one’s own powerlessness (a feeling most people hate) or to wallow in nihilism, as most climate change deniers seem to do.

    The nihilist argument, essentially, is why should I make sacrifices to help future generations? Most people alive today will be dead long before the earth becomes too hot for most current human activity, so why care?

    Peter Akuleyev

    July 18, 2019 at EDT am

  15. The only reason I was ever willing to consider the evidence of HBD was through first hand experience of how badly blacks run a society when they are in charge. People living in the inner city can be convinced pretty easily, people living in rich neighborhoods have no need to consider it.

    DataExplorer

    July 18, 2019 at EDT am

    • And based on my observations, Eastern Asiatics are the opposite of blacks with their docile, domesticated nature. They also lack the burgeoning creativity and the pioneering spirit of Whites, when given the opportunity. One may give an exception to the Japanese, but I realized the Japanese are of a different genetic coding from the rest of East Asia. Many of them have a slight appearance hinting a Caucasoid ancestry and their strong aversion and brutality towards their Chinese and Korean neighbors is clearly a testament to this. This is HBD!

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      July 18, 2019 at EDT am

  16. The Squad is such a blessing for Trump. But he managed to get the angle. This election is gonna be a lot of fun again.

    Bruno

    July 18, 2019 at EDT am

    • And that will build up : it’s all Sailer analysis. He could say they are descendant of slavers stealing descendants of slaves positions in the Ivies and the Media and corporate America .

      He can also dig into their families background there : what they did.

      It’s an endless source of extraordinary powerful attacks on those three. It will be like a Bergman movie when you think you have reach a climax and it goes up and up and up ….

      It’s really a incredible drama in the technical sense.

      Bruno

      July 18, 2019 at EDT am

  17. “The glaciers are melting and the icecaps are melting and the hole in the Ozone is back. It’s what all the smart people believe.”

    I’m an engineer, grew up in the Midwest, and went to school about 30 years ago. When I was in school, engineers were a pretty based, cynical bunch-their questioning attitude extended to political viewpoints, social norms, etc.

    What this meant in practice was that, 30 years ago, engineers were essentially mid-level conservative (this is probably consistent with suburbanites in general at the time-casually conservative, perhaps).

    When I got back together with old colleagues, specifically with regard to global warming, that cynical, questioning attitude had gone away. They were all true believers, disgusted with Trump and global warming cynics.

    The specific mechanism of that belief is interesting, though. It isn’t that they merely believe: what they essentially have done is ‘turn off’ that questioning, cynical attitude towards Global Warming. In other words, 30 years ago, they would have approached the issue like any other: how good is the data? (or, with regards to political opinions: how good is the argument, or how consistent is the argument with real-world events?).

    With Global Warming, they no longer ask How Good is the data? Instead, it is all political identity (“global warming cynics are Trumpians” or “People who don’t believe global warming are owned by big business” or something similar). They have literally changed the way their brains think about subjects because of the political stance implied by those subjects. They no longer approach this particular political issue as a measurable, observable problem-instead, it is a social, political argument.

    It has been fascinating, and disheartening, to see.

    anon

    anonymousse

    July 18, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Exactly. In the past is was possible to have a reasonable disagreement and discussion with these people. Now its a closed book and nearing hysterics.

      I’m of the opinion that the earth is warming, but not that Ogunquit, Maine will soon be underwater (although that would be biblical justice… They are flying the fruit flag next to the US and state flags at the veteran’s memorial park). I also don’t think there is jack-squat we can do about it, especially in the face of Indian and Chinese industrialization… But, for them its all about group think and social signaling, they just can’t realize that. They swim that direction because the rest of the mackerel are swimming that direction…

      Peyton Farquahr

      July 19, 2019 at EDT pm

  18. In general, people will be open to changing their beliefs when their perceived self interest aligns with the change. The same applies to resistance to change.

    The most civic minded of our modern population settle for relative fairness. They will be open to small and balancing changes against their self interest that align with constitutional rights, as long as there are clear and even rules for everyone that do no target one group. (ie: they would not be open to affirmative action, but would be open to even application of the law across all groups).

    I’d venture that 90% of people or greater align with the first perspective that measures desirable change by what aligns with self interest. And I cannot fault them, as this may actually be the wise person’s perspective given that people with the latter perspective will always be prey for those of the former.

    Which is why we should have all mostly stayed in the confines of our own nations.

    An attempt at mass integration relies on widespread multiculturalism propaganda whose arguments have a temporary lifespan in society: which is for as long as people perceive their self-interests not particularly aligned with any social system (the average White SWPL that went to a “good” school that taught anti-racism in some form) or with the temporary and tense social truce and multiculturalism represents (the average NAM).

    This situation can only be temporary as group struggle for resources and even survival becomes more competitive.

    NAMs quickly made the switch from multiculturalist truce (the civil rights era) to (implied) genocidal nationalists (the modern era of the anti-White Left). They have done the math faster than the middle class White Boomers.

    Eventually everyone will be forced do the math.

    Jack

    July 18, 2019 at EDT pm


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