Lion of the Blogosphere

Last week’s Morning Consult poll (can Bernie win?)

with 23 comments

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

The follow key points:

1. Bernie is in second place.

2. Bernie has the highest favorability rating of any candidate.

3. Bernie leads as the second choice among Biden supporters. (And it’s the same in the other direction, Biden leads as the second choice among Bernie supporters.) This indicates that there is a sizable percentage of Democratic primary voters who want to vote for an older white man.

I say that there’s a good chance that Bernie could wind up winning the nomination. If there is a Biden collapse, as there was a Giuliani collapse between December 2007 and January 2008, Bernie could be the beneficiary of that collapse. Especially given that Bernie is likely to have a big win in the New Hampshire primary.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

23 Responses

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  1. I want universal healthcare, whatever the cost. Universal healthcare will provide the perfect excuse for why we need to raise taxes substantially on the wealthy: corporations as well as individuals. And, universal healthcare will also make it abundantly clear about the true costs of mass immigration, costs that can no longer be obfuscated away with silly sentimental rhetoric. If Bernie sticks to universal healthcare he has my vote, and the vote of millions of other prole right-wingers.

    Daniel H

    August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

    • The US government has been running big deficits for decades, there is no way the Democrats are going to 1) all of a sudden care about them and 2) turn away nonwhite Democratic Party clients in order to deal with the debt.

      Why are you so crazy about universal health care? Just eager for someone else to pay your bills for you?

      Gozo

      August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Most western countries have universal health care and they are all doing fine. We can have it too.

        Daniel H

        August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

      • “Most western countries have universal health care and they are all doing fine. We can have it too.”

        Most European countries are slowly collapsing.

        You didn’t see the German trying to float a negative-interest bond?

        map

        August 26, 2019 at EDT am

      • “Most western countries have universal health care and they are all doing fine.”

        Those Western countries that do don’t have the same level of diversity as America. Diversity decreases the willingness of strangers to sacrifice for their neighbour.

        chris

        August 26, 2019 at EDT am

      • [Just eager for someone else to pay your bills for you?]

        Only a fabulously wealthy person could pay out of pocket for medical expenses in the US where a simple surgery can run $25,000, an ambulance $800, or five minutes with a specialist $2000. Even people WITH insurance are bankrupted by medical expenses. And keep in mind under the current system it’s virtually impossible to comparison shop or know exactly what expenses a procedure will entail.

        We already have universal healthcare for the poor and elderly. It would not destroy the country to offer the same coverage to tax paying, middle class families who lack employee benefits, ie self employed and independent contractors. The exchange policies are exorbitantly expensive (post obamacare our premiums tripled for a basic policy) with poor coverage/ networks. Ironically this is an issue trump addressed while campaigning but apparently he forgot about it.

        toomanymice

        August 26, 2019 at EDT am

    • Universal healthcare in most countries cost less both to individual people and to the government. If anything it will be even a better excuse to bring more illegals. I have never heard anybody who wants to get rid of universal healthcare in countries where it exists or use it as an excuse against immigration, but I do hear leftie young millennials complaining about housing, jobs and infrastructure not keeping up with the growth and sometimes as a next step complains about incompatible culture. You wouldn’t hear those things from leftists 3 years ago.

      hashed

      August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

      • Universal health care will not work in the US unless we acknowledge that the human lifespan is limited and are willing to accept some level of outcome based rationing. A corollary is an understanding that extending quality of life.can be just as important as extending the mere fact of life.

        Peter

        ironrailsironweights

        August 26, 2019 at EDT am

  2. I wonder who’s smarter – Lion or Audacious Epigone, who says Bernie’s toast.

    http://www.unz.com/anepigone/2020-democratic-candidate-support-profiles/

    .

    Alonzo Portfolio

    August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

  3. Universal healthcare hasn’t made the true costs of mass immigration abundantly clear in Western European countries. They continue to take in boatloads of Africans on the basis of silly sentimental rhetoric.

    Hermes

    August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

    • That was supposed to be a reply to Daniel H.

      Hermes

      August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Despite all the heat in the news the number of Africans coming into Europe is a tiny drop compared to the flood that crosses our border daily.

      We need universal health care, now.

      Daniel H

      August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

  4. If Biden’s support collapses because he shows unmistakable signs of dementia it may not help Sanders, who is a year older.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

    • I agree- why is there is proposed Biden collapse?

      If Biden is doddering then Bernie is worse- being 80, and not looking that good for 80.

      Bernie’s greatest strength is his integrity- everyone thinks he is sincerely a leftist crackpot. If Biden is taken down by his opportunism and flip flopping, people will turn against him, like Gilenbrand. Then Bernie has an opening.

      Everything else is the news media trying to gin up a story.

      Lion of the Turambar

      August 26, 2019 at EDT am

  5. Do you see Oprah jumping in? IMHO she could run the table.

    guest

    August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Puppy stop being an idiot.

      The Philosopher

      August 26, 2019 at EDT am

  6. There are a lot of polls showing Warren in second place too. It’s a mistake to place too much importance on any one specific poll. Warren and Sanders are basically tied for second place, and I think Warren has more room to grow.

    ack-acking

    August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Biden leads in PredictIt’s betting market for who will be the Democratic nominee, but interestingly Warren is in second place (behind Trump) for who will be elected President in 2020. I also think Biden will collapse. He says too many stupid things and lacks support in Iowa and New Hampshire, which means other candidates will have momentum. The narrative will be about how Biden’s trending down.

      Biden is currently “winning” because of name recognition.

      Vince

      August 26, 2019 at EDT am

    • Yeah I get a feeling she will be the nominee as on her day she can say a lot of ‘moderate’ things which will appeal to the donors. I personally like her as a person. If the dems didn’t want open borders I would probably prefer Warren or Bernie to Trumpy. But Trump is very entertaining on so many levels.

      The Philosopher

      August 26, 2019 at EDT am

  7. OT: Hilarious article by the angry ex-wife of cuckservative Kevin Williamson, claiming he is in essence a walking parody of a white trashionalist:

    https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:CJ7QheQYVUcJ:https://medium.com/@penelope.gristelfink/letter-to-the-editor-of-the-atlantic-jeffrey-goldberg-ceab6adb07ea&hl=en&gl=us&strip=1&vwsrc=0

    Not to imply I believe any of the accusations made in the article. But it’s still pretty damning for Kevin’s “real masculine man” shtick. Reminds me of a quote from Elie Wiesel: “some stories are true that never happened.”

    Tanturn

    August 25, 2019 at EDT pm

    • Thanks. I was looking for this.

      Vince

      August 26, 2019 at EDT pm

  8. If these polls were accurate, then any of the Dem candidates could fill a venue larger than a high school auditorium.

    map

    August 26, 2019 at EDT am

  9. Another reminder – this type of analysis is useless.

    There are objectively only 3 – 4 candidates who can beat Trump:

    Warren, Harris, Gabbard, Buttigieg

    I have questions about Buttigiegs electability, but maybe.

    Paul Rise

    August 26, 2019 at EDT pm


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