Lion of the Blogosphere

I bet money on Donald Trump losing

In response to my assertion that Trump is going to lose the election, some commenters responded “but but but prediction markets say he has a 41% chance of winning.”

OK, if I really believe it I should put some money down on it.

I also learned that once you buy one “no,” you can buy other “nos” for no additional investment, so I added a bunch of other people who have zero chance of being the next president. And I bought one share of Pete Buttigieg by mistake. Blacks don’t like him, but he’s collecting more money than anyone else and the establishment could rally around him as a more moderate alternative to crazy left-wing Warren. There’s maybe an 8% chance of that happening.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

October 26, 2019 at 2:54 PM

Posted in Politics

36 Responses

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  1. I would assume Buttigieg gets most of his donations from individuals who can spend a lot more money on politics than kids. No discretionary money left in middle income families after education and church.

    cesqy

    October 26, 2019 at 3:11 PM

    • “No discretionary money left in middle income families after education and church”

      Which of you fools spend your hard earned money in a church? I would love that hear that rationale

      mpt

      October 26, 2019 at 3:33 PM

      • God asks for 10%. I’m sure you foolishly pay more than that to the state and feds ad mine is tax deductible laughing.

        cesqy

        October 26, 2019 at 6:23 PM

      • Yeah, we “foolishly” pay more than 10 percent to the feds and state.

        We “foolishly” stay out of prison.

        Are you like Jack Keraouc, who would claim that everything he did was deductable, and when challenged would just write about it?

        njguy73

        October 26, 2019 at 8:17 PM

  2. OT: the black women at my low-rent gym have all seen Joker. They advise me to go to an early show because the later ones are crowded.

    I thought this movie was the white nationalist anthem. Clearly someone didn’t get the memo!

    gothamette

    October 26, 2019 at 5:03 PM

  3. Two words: tweet markets

    Jokah Macpherson

    October 26, 2019 at 5:45 PM

  4. One of the problems with prediction markets is systematic bias in terms of who plays on them. Everyone is subject to a lot of well-researched biases, like partisan perceptions, overconfidence, confirmation bias in data gathering, etc. The whole wisdom of crowds thing is that people have different biases and they cancel each other out. Unless certain kinds of people play on betting markets and certain kinds don’t. Then you get systematic slanting.

    Apparently, the kind of person who bets on that market is much more likely to be upper middle class and gay than the voters. The right number on Pete Buttigieg is more like 0.5%. A short gay white guy can do MUCH better in the democrat primary than in the general, where Democrats are completely dependent on black voters, ie the most anti-gay demographic in the country. And what’s his chance in the primary? 2%? Gays care a lot about politics and they are richer than average, hence PB’s good fundraising, but there are very few of them, hence PB’s terrible polling.

    Who apparently does not play on betting markets? Plumbers in Minnesota. But that’s who’s going to re-elect Trump. And they are the kind of people you discount bc you hate them.

    BTW, what did that market (I don’t see a label on it) put on Trump the day before the last election? Subtract that from the actual result for a starting estimate of the anti-Trump composition bias in that market.

    Sternhammer

    October 26, 2019 at 6:03 PM

    • If you really believe this, you’d bet as I’ve done.(but on Trump losing) That’s the beauty of prediction markets: if they are wrong, you can take money from them.

      “Who apparently does not play on betting markets? Plumbers in Minnesota. But that’s who’s going to re-elect Trump. And they are the kind of people you discount bc you hate them.”

      I don’t know any plumbers in Minnesota, and have never been to the state, but I do know two facts:

      1. Trump lost Minnesota in 2016.
      2. Trump’s poll numbers are down compared to 2016.

      Alexander Turok

      October 27, 2019 at 12:02 AM

      • The only poll numbers that matter occur at election time. You’d know that if you had more political experience. The massive advantages of incumbency from fund raising, media power, political power, and prestige shouldn’t be understated.

        redarmyvodka

        October 27, 2019 at 4:57 PM

  5. I bet money on Trump winning in 2016, and I won some money! (I forget how much so it couldn’t have been a lot.)

    gothamette

    October 26, 2019 at 7:12 PM

  6. Vox Day is pretty sure at this point that a Trumpslide is on tap for 2020. Of course, many things could change in a year.

    A Texan

    October 26, 2019 at 8:33 PM

      • I read that one and it makes some reasonable points that are possible. It’s pretty clear that Team R is mostly GOPe that might as well be Democrats. They are sloughing from the same trough.

        A Texan

        October 27, 2019 at 8:35 AM

      • Why are these online alt-right types so obsessed with the idea that the left is pedophilic? Where does this come from?

        Hermes

        October 27, 2019 at 3:01 PM

      • “It’s pretty clear that Team R is mostly GOPe that might as well be Democrats.”

        Sure, my objection is to the pedo-ring crap. It follows virtually the same script as the you-know-who:

        “Here are some real cases of women/children being raped. Now look at the friends of the rapist, they are obviously rapists too! Why aren’t the police arresting them? It’s because they don’t care about women/children. Here’s a made-up statistic about the percentage of women/children being raped. And if you aren’t outraged about this then you don’t care about women/children.”

        Alexander Turok

        October 27, 2019 at 6:00 PM

      • Because there is a system of political control in place that guarantees a politician will tow the line no matter what.

        In the past, say, 1950, a politician would have control exercised over him for being a closet homosexual…or having an affair…or an out-of-wedlock child…or hiring a prostitute…or having a minority girlfriend.

        Fast forward to today, and all of the above are not scandalous at all. So…what is needed to control politicians now? What still generates outrage without any attempt at defense? Well…child molestation and pedophilia. This is the kind of control needed over a modern politician.

        Have you not noticed how much worse they are today? Katie Hill is just the tip of iceberg of the levels of depravity modern politicians have engaged in to seize the brass ring.

        Breaking apart these pedophile networks and gaining control over their information is how you bring the deep state to heel.

        What do you think Jeffrey Epstein was all about?

        This is why the Anons are so heavily focused on tracking this particular law-enforcement angle. You can bet the entire media is on the chans monitoring what is posted to head-off anything bubbling to the surface.

        map

        October 27, 2019 at 8:39 PM

      • But why assume politicians must be controlled by some secret cabal at all? That’s crazy conspiracy theory thinking.

        Hermes

        October 28, 2019 at 10:00 AM

      • As far as this pedo conspiracy theory goes, just stop it. If Pedo blackmail was controlling the government, wouldn’t the people who have actually been caught and jailed for that have a reason to blow the whistle? I don’t recall Dennis Hastert trying to point the blame at a pedo deep state ring.

        It’s nuts and doesn’t exist.

        Mike Street Station

        November 2, 2019 at 8:30 AM

  7. Ye discusses Maslow’s hierarchy of needs here. Perhaps he reads Lion:

    gothamette

    October 26, 2019 at 10:04 PM

    • Regardless of self actualization or Masa-low needs, the average prole/NAM is all about consuming food and stimulating the sexual region of the brain.

      I returned to the city from the Hudson Valley region again, taking the Metro North this time around. This is worse than taking the bus, prolier than the bus. Anyone who rides one of these rail lines to the Hudson River towns is engaging in a prole activity. One of the stops in Cold Spring, literally is littered with bibbing n feasting establishments along the train station, and hordes of drunkards are waiting for the train to go to the city, perhaps to rinse and repeat in Manhattan on a Saturday night.

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      October 27, 2019 at 10:25 AM

      • This was funny. Lolz.

        Yakov

        October 27, 2019 at 1:56 PM

      • You’re welcome!

        You must love the Curious George (Kiryas Joel) region in the Hudson Valley in Orange County, where Chassidim dominate as a group, where they are no blacks and Hispanics living among them and also preying on them, because through iron fist politicking in the name of god and religion, NAMs are kept out of the town. This is a good example for White Nationalists to follow.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiryas_Joel,_New_York

        Furthermore, this town is named after a rebbe, and it’s probably the only place with a Yiddish name in NYS.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        October 27, 2019 at 3:35 PM

      • When you visit many towns of the Hudson Valley, there always a welcome signage.

        Curious George has a very unique one.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        October 27, 2019 at 3:43 PM

      • I like the sign, but I dislike Kirias Yoel. Some of my best friends live there and my daughter is there right now in the rest home after having given birth to her 3rd child.

        Yakov

        October 28, 2019 at 9:16 AM

      • I dislike the sign, and it makes me dislike Kirias Joel. Last week, my wife and I ate at an Israeli restaurant in Tribeca. At first we didn’t realize the restaurant was Israeli, since middle eastern food is all similar. Next to our table, what looked old film reels of the Mediterranean were being projected onto a wall. At first I tried to guess what years the films were from. I guessed 1960s. Then I tried to guess the location. Italy, Cypress, Lebanon, no. Israel.

        When I told my wife I was 100% sure it was Israel, she told me it couldn’t be Israel because the women were all wearing pants. I told here about this old photo of the Bin Laden family:

        https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e3848d49b428c392984f14e59e8a70e8fb671dd2/63_54_4024_2414/master/4024.jpg?width=700&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cf96e914de8a08fea319a0935780b0c3

        I told her that Israel has turned into a place where the ultra orthodox scream obscenities at people on public transportation for not being dressed modestly enough; but it wasn’t always that way. I don’t know how much of this we can tolerate in America, but I know that it’s more than we should.

        Anyway, I’m curious to hear anyone’s personal experience with Kirias Joel.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        October 28, 2019 at 11:55 AM

  8. I’ve been thinking about betting on predicit (betting against Trump and Yang, probably betting on Biden who seems underrated), but it seems like a hassle. It takes a long time to pay off, you have to hold all the money in reserve, and I think they charge you a hefty fee to withdraw money, right? It seems more like a hobby than a serious way to make money, which is why I can’t take their prediction odds too seriously.

    ack-acking

    October 26, 2019 at 10:07 PM

    • Tweet markets turn over every week!

      Jokah Macpherson

      October 27, 2019 at 10:12 AM

      • Any tips for playing the tweet markets? I have no idea how many tweets Trump might send so it really seems like gambling.

        ack-acking

        October 27, 2019 at 12:42 PM

      • It mostly is but you can do a little better than even if you spend some time observing account patterns…like how prone is a specific account is to sudden tweet storms versus a steady pace, do they typically tweet on weekends, what time of day do they tweet, etc. I do it ‘green lumber’ style and don’t even bother checking the news or schedules for the person.

        Jokah Macpherson

        October 27, 2019 at 1:12 PM

  9. Can we all bet that post-2020 in Meriprolestan is going to be a real helluva sh!tshow?

    Imagine another term of Trump and the Democrats!

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    October 26, 2019 at 10:12 PM

  10. Censorship works and conservatives are censored on the internet. It’s been three years and tech companies figured out how to censor their political enemies e.g. Crowder and other conservative YouTubers.

    JW

    October 26, 2019 at 11:06 PM

    • That’s all true but Trump has enough momentum to win anyway. Plus anti-trust action against big tech is starting to put pressure on them as well. Both sides will raise the stakes in 2020 and when Trump wins a second term protecting internet freedom must be his administration’s highest priority.

      redarmyvodka

      October 27, 2019 at 5:00 PM

  11. PredictIt allows max bets of $850, and you have a liquid net worth of 6 if not 7 figures. You risking $53 is not high-conviction.

    David Pinsen

    October 26, 2019 at 11:48 PM

  12. Lion, it’s absolutely disgusting to bet against Trump.

    Yakov

    October 27, 2019 at 2:11 PM


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