Lion of the Blogosphere

John Derbyshire agrees that Trump won’t be re-elected

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

October 27, 2019 at 10:57 PM

Posted in Uncategorized

26 Responses

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  1. So Derbyshire reads your blog. I’m impressed! But I think it is much too early to make predictions about 2020. Anything could happen.

    Rosenmops

    October 27, 2019 at 11:10 PM

  2. I’d say the more interesting story from that VDare page is the one about the Texas party shooting where the race of the shooter and victims is being suppressed by the cops and media. And now the cops are chiding the witnesses for not cooperating with the investigation – will they never learn?

    Vipltd

    October 27, 2019 at 11:50 PM

  3. He just reads your post aloud. He neither agrees nor disagrees.

    bobbybobbob

    October 27, 2019 at 11:59 PM

  4. Is he still trying to get Chinese citizenship?

    map

    October 28, 2019 at 1:21 AM

  5. He agrees with your analysis citing it extensively and not adding any piece of proof.

    You could say : J Deebishire, an intelligent ultra-conservative editorialist, considers that LoB (« me »), an intelligent ultra-conservative blogger, is right about being ultra-pessimistic on Trump’s chances based on two line of reasoning :
    – the Sailer demographics is destiny argument (there are fewer old and whites in 2020 than in 2016
    – the polls in 1swing state showing Trump winning but with a lesser margin wich validates the demographics is destiny point

    Not much !

    Durham investigation. Horowitz report. Isis killing. Etc etc . Trump has the ability to fire up new people. He didn’t have every old whites for a start. An Warren or
    Buttogieg or Biden have to deal with a democratic mindset wich is far more difficult than the one HC had to deal with ….

    The historian Jewish Oracle is predicting again Trumps victory. He is the only one saying that impeachment is good for Democrats contrary to JD analysis in the same post. The oracle is clearly wiser than JD -paradoxically – on this matter.

    The fact is that nobody knows

    Bruno

    October 28, 2019 at 1:44 AM

    • Lion’s never met an abortion he didn’t like, unless it was done by a prole with a legally-held firearm. Lion believes the only time dumb proles should have guns is when they’re fighting Turks in Northern Syria. Is he really an ‘ultra conservative’?

      prolier than thou

      October 28, 2019 at 9:36 AM

      • Haha, yeah. Let’s see, Lion is pro-abortion, pro-gun control, anti-religion, pro-much higher taxes, pro-massive governmental social welfare programs like single-payer universal health care and universal basic income, likes obscene, vulgar entertainment like Andrew Dice Clay and all these contemporary teen shows with their casts of gay characters and everyone having sex… in what meaningful sense is he a conservative? My guess is that he self-identifies as being on the right because he buys into the “one drop rule” by which liberals identify conservatives; that is, if you hold one or a few non-liberal positions (like believing in HBD, or being anti-trans) you’re a conservative, even if you’re a liberal on everything else.

        Hermes

        October 28, 2019 at 1:03 PM

      • If conservatives hope to win, they need to be a big tent. If you want anyone who disagrees with any stupid Republican party position to vote Democratic, you’re not going to have many votes.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        October 28, 2019 at 1:33 PM

      • It’s always amusing when an anti-conservative tells conservatives what they need to do to win. And, of course, their recommendation is always to stop being conservative.

        destructure

        October 28, 2019 at 2:41 PM

      • I also identify with the right but hold some opinions that conservatives would disagree with. I still vote a straight Republican ticket.

        I took the Presidential candidate quiz at Istandwith.com. it asks your opinions on a variety of issues and then tells you which candidates are your closest matches. As I entered some opinions that clearly deviate from Republicans I became very curious who my political matched would be.

        It turns out Trump is by far my closest match at 74%. Tulsi Gabbard was at 40%, I always liked her even before her spat with Hillary. The rest of the Democrats matched up horrible with me. Biden at 18%. Warren, Sanders, Buttigeg, Harris and Yang 11%-12% (Yang was lower than I expected for some reason). Beto was my very lowest match at an atrocious 5%.

        Now I realize even if I am way out of the Republican mainstream on a few issues it doesn’t really matter, I should keep voting GOP.

        Jay Fink

        October 28, 2019 at 2:56 PM

      • Hermes,

        I was watching an extremely far right cartoon in which the group of protagonists is attacked by a mob of hippie zombies. A hippie zombie mumbles “Hey man, want to get high”. One of the protagonists says “Yes, but not right now.”, and then kills the zombie. This pretty much sums it up.

        It’s like a tug of war. As long as someone is helping the right side, they’re on the right side, even if only temporarily. I know a woman who’s married with two kids, and probably lost her virginity to her husband. She’s also an Elizabeth Warren supporter who wants to move ISIS fighters to the U.S. and give them apartments paid for by the U.S. tax payer. Not on our side.

        Milo Yiannopoulos on the other hand does many things that we would consider less than optimal. Fortunately he also goes around to college campuses and talks people into voting in their own long term interest. He’s on our side.

        Personally I don’t believe in the literal truth of any of that religion stuff. However, I have observed that removing religion from a culture seems to destroy the social fabric and make people’s lives worse (even for the people who never believed the religion). I’d rather have a Supreme Court run by devout Catholics, not because I’m Catholic, but because it’s a litmus test for reliability on other issues. Getting the exact national agenda that my super-religious cousins want is a small price to pay for not getting the agenda that the average blue-haired Google HR manager wants.

        I agree with a lot of what Lion says about abortion, religion, and gun-control, and I’m a lifetime NRA member. I don’t think he’s ever advocated for higher taxes on the middle class; he’s advocated for ending tax shelters for people who can afford Learjets. That would actually cut taxes on the middle class.

        I don’t know what we’re going to do when a self driving semi-truck becomes commercially viable, and all the truck drivers lose their jobs. We need to start talking about that now, even if that means we consider lots of bad ideas. In fact, we probably can’t get to good ideas without debating the bad ones. Entertaining a bad idea about how to solve a possible future problem does not make someone an enemy.

        “If conservatives hope to win, they need to be a big tent. If you want anyone who disagrees with any stupid Republican party position to vote Democratic, you’re not going to have many votes.”

        This is exactly right. You need 51% of the votes to win. Pick 51% of the people who you agree with the most, and try to get along with them. Gently try to persuade them with your ideas, and be open to them gently persuading you with theirs. No purity spirals.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        October 28, 2019 at 3:09 PM

      • Hermes,

        “Haha, yeah. Let’s see, Lion is pro-abortion, pro-gun control, anti-religion, pro-much higher taxes, pro-massive governmental social welfare programs like single-payer universal health care and universal basic income, likes obscene, vulgar entertainment like Andrew Dice Clay and all these contemporary teen shows with their casts of gay characters and everyone having sex”

        You’re missing a key point about Lion. Yes, Lion wants the government to reward his friends and punish his enemies. The problem is that the Democratic Party, because of its identity politics mandate, hates white people, especially white men. Therefore, the goal of the Democratic Party is to make sure that 1) no collective benefits ever go to white people, especially white men; and 2) that the brunt of the US legal system falls negatively on white people, especially white men.

        What’s worse for Lion, is that Leftists see him as a failure who refused to exercise his white and jewish privilege. Had he positioned himself higher up on the food chain, he would not be in the cross-hairs of Democrat identity politics. But he failed to do that, so Democrats have no problem sacrificing him for the greater good.

        There are a lot of Democrat men exactly in Lion’s position mulling over their choices. Sure, they can exercise wrong platitudes on taxes and gun control, but they are all confronted with the reality of a political party that wants them for dinner.

        What percentage of the Democratic Party is white men? 20%? How many of these men will the Democrats lose?

        map

        October 28, 2019 at 4:20 PM

      • Jay,

        I went on isidewith and didn’t see candidates, just parties.

        I got:
        Republican
        Constitution
        Libertarian

        In that order with Republican being about 90%. Answering more questions with more nuance didn’t seem to change things much except making the numbers for Constitution and Libertarian higher. I vote like Wyoming, not San Francisco. 10 years ago, I would have scored higher libertarian, but allowing “gay rights” made us have “trans kids”. No thanks.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        October 28, 2019 at 5:29 PM

      • How appropriate. The Lion in a big tent. The transformation of the Republican party into a circus is complete.

        prolier than thou

        October 28, 2019 at 6:25 PM

      • “How appropriate. The Lion in a big tent. The transformation of the Republican party into a circus is complete.”

        Demographics has ensured that the GOP has a small tent future. The former “Big Tent” Rove/Bush Republican Party got us to this point.

        Mike Street Station

        November 2, 2019 at 9:01 AM

  6. Both the leftwing and rightwing media engage in fake news. It’s also an inherent part of the media business to gin up negativity when none otherwise exists. Having written a blog part time before I also know how hard it is to come up with new material regularly and maintain reader interest. Without negativity and fake news there might be nothing to discuss especially given how ephemeral current events are as opposed to history. Since very few people have actual historical knowledge as well as the proper framework of understanding history they embrace current events podcasts/blogs instead.

    redarmyvodka

    October 28, 2019 at 5:06 AM

  7. And Moody’s analytics predicts Trump to have a landslide victory in 2020.

    Roli

    October 28, 2019 at 5:30 AM

  8. A few points where I think your Trump-loses analysis may be off. 1.) While it’s true white senior citizens dying replaced by non-white new voters may effect national numbers, remember this by far mostly affects already blue states like Cali (or still safe red states like Texas). Electorally, this would only seem to put in play mainly Florida. There has yet to be a big immigration influx into the Midwest states Trump flipped. And any indoctrinated white youth vote going left there would probably be offset by more former reliable Dem voting working class voting Trump GOP.

    And 2.) Despite Hillary having a maybe unlikable personality as it’s claimed, the fact is she was a pretty centrist politician. Much of her campaign was based on “yeah, things might be getting tough for average America, but you don’t want to make that leap in the dark with Trump, vote for me and stable politics”. But now if, for instance, Liz Warren is the nominee, Trump will, in everything besides personality, be seen as having the more standard-issue policies and Dems being the leap in the dark socialist radicals.

    trey

    October 28, 2019 at 5:50 AM

    • I guess the voter demo is known, but most the old people I know hate Trump. You know, because Republican and he’s going to take my social security and Medicare.

      The exceptions are those that moved here from more diverse places. They get it.

      Mrs Stitch

      October 28, 2019 at 9:08 AM

    • Biden actually has a better chance of defeating Trump than Warren does. I’d say that the outcome of the election is going to depend a lot on Biden’s health and especially his mental status. Although regarding the age issue, the doddering old semi-demented Biden is actually just a few years older than Trump.

      Peter

      ironrailsironweights

      October 28, 2019 at 10:18 AM

      • Biden does better than Warren in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. But Warren has been catching up to Biden in that type of polling, I’m looking forward to the next Pennsylvania poll.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        October 28, 2019 at 10:27 AM

  9. John Derbyshire agrees that Trump won’t be re-elected

    Trump won’t be re-elected because Trump won’t run for a second term.

    E. Rekshun

    October 28, 2019 at 11:31 AM

  10. Trump won because disenfranchised prole white males in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania voted for him in the hopes that having a prole white male in the White House would elevate their social status. It failed miserably and now they are even more mocked and hated than they were in 2016. I predict many of them will stay home in 2020 and give the win to whoever the democratic candidate is

    Gm

    October 28, 2019 at 4:01 PM

    • Only butthurt lefties say stuff like this. A simlar “cope” is that voting for trump was a way to voice frustration; to throw up a middle finger.

      1:) Trump upset, Brexit, PRI upset in Mexico, Duterte, AOC primary, Cantor primary, etc.: The global social theme is throw professional politicians out of office. Both Trump and AOC won because they had no background in politics. This will continue. People are done with the establishment party systems. Trump may lose, but it’s not going to be to an establishment democrat like Warren/Biden. A fresh independent is going to show up in six months and upset the apple cart. This candidate will crib heavily from Trump’s positions.

      2) People voted for anti-immigration, anti-war, and anti-socialism. The stats on this are crystal clear. Americans don’t want to import foreigners, die for foreigners, or pay for goodies for poors. Trump is the only candidate in recent history to actually lay this out as a platform. Support for these positions is smeared as “prole” despite massive popularity, even across races.

      bobbybobbob

      October 29, 2019 at 12:29 AM

  11. Conrad Black, Oct. 23:

    “ Since all polls show Republican opinion in the country is rock solid behind the president and by any normal criteria—the economy, declining illegal immigration, and his delivery on election promises—he will be reelected easily. This, as the egregious U.S. Representative Al Green says, is the problem: if Mr. Trump isn’t impeached, he will be reelected. But impeachment will be a complete failure, and he will be reelected anyway.”

    Curle

    October 28, 2019 at 10:02 PM


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