Lion of the Blogosphere

NY Times poll vs Emerson Poll

with 11 comments

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_warren-6769.html

The NY Times poll shows that Trump has a 7-point lead over Warren in Michigan. Woo hoo! Good news for Trump!

But an Emerson poll shows that Warren has an 8-point lead over Trump in Michigan. Uh oh, game over for Trump.

Which poll is right? Is there a mainstream media polling conspiracy that only the NY Times isn’t in on?

1. The Emerson poll polled twice as many registered voters, and uses more recent data.
2. Both polls show that Trump has 46% support. But the Emerson poll gives respondents a binary choice between Warren and Trump, while the NY Times poll also gives the choices of “Another candidate,” “Wouldn’t vote,” and “Don’t know/No opinion.”

What this tells me is that Trump has people who support him, but there simply aren’t any swing voters who might vote for him. There are voters who are unsure about Warren, but no way no how are any of those unsure voters going to cast a vote for Trump. The best Trump can hope for is that they stay home, or that some third-party candidate runs as a spoiler, but I doubt that the third-party scenario will happen because there will be extreme pressure on any such person not to run. Warren will likely pick up the lion’s share of the 16% in the NY Times poll who are unsure.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

November 4, 2019 at EST am

Posted in Politics

11 Responses

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  1. Where is Kamala and cory? How about al Sharpton? St Trayvon? Where are the jews to cook up another magic negro candidate when we need them?

    The Social Justice Warrior

    November 4, 2019 at EST am

    • It’s hard to say which poll is right. Most people are low information and don’t know anything about Elizabeth Warren yet. This will change if she is the nominee. She holds many positions swing voters won’t like at all. Trump will have a big advertising budget. She will lose most swing voters and give Trump the best chance to win of all Democrats.

      Jay Fink

      November 4, 2019 at EST pm

  2. Because polling is broken. It’s propaganda all the way down. Polls tell us nothing but what the narrative controllers want us to think reality is. And when broken polling seemingly reflects the actual voting results it’s only because the votes are manipulated to match the polls. This includes 2016.

    The only way to understand reality is to choose your conspiracy theory. See here:

    https://charltonteaching.blogspot.com/2019/11/why-it-isnt-ok-to-be-white-or-choose.html

    Andrew E.

    November 4, 2019 at EST pm

    • Quote from above link:

      In other words the Establishment are always and everywhere (when functional) ‘conspiracy theorists’ – and everybody ought to be a conspiracy theorist – because that is the way the world works. The significant societal world is one of deep strategies.

      People who focus on specific words, or specific laws, or micro-defined issues – are merely doing this tactically to pursue their own Big Agenda, their own conspiracy – or else they are making a mistake.

      And to deny this is a world of long-term strategies, and that we ought Not to do it; to take things at surface value and issues in a detached manner, is merely to be socially incompetent – to be a dupe of conspiracies and a tool of someone-else’s long-term strategies.

      Andrew E.

      November 4, 2019 at EST pm

  3. I could maybe see some Biden supporters holding their noses and very reluctantly voting for Trump if Warren gets the nomination. There is essentially no Venn Diagram overlap between Warren and Trump supporters but a small one between Biden and Trump.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    November 4, 2019 at EST pm

  4. Poll results and election results cannot be trusted anymore.

    My 2¢

    November 4, 2019 at EST pm

    • It seems you can find a poll to say whatever you want to year. My Bernie-bro cousin is always retweeting polls that show Sanders having the biggest lead over Trump, but you don’t see those being discussed here or in the MSM.

      Hermes

      November 5, 2019 at EST am

      • Biden has the best polling against Trump, because Biden does especially well in the Rustbelt and Florida. But Biden and Bernie are both going to lose to Warren, so who cares?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        November 5, 2019 at EST am

  5. Scott Adams has an interesting defense/attack line for Trump wich is « it was my job and 1st priority to know if leading democratic nominee is corrupt ».

    SA didn’t receive any counter-argument.

    It’s simple : you must distinguish what you can do as a president and what you can do as a candidate . The president can use the executive branch. But if therz are back channels, it means the candidate is using the presidency means. It’s not like the president is fighting against unemployment and then benefiting as a candidate. It’s more like Trump organization would get a loan at 0% from treasury and contracts to employ 500k people in swing states. It’s the mixture of both that is dangerous.

    Scott Adams didn’t understand that because he seems honest in not seeing why WH doesn’t frame the problem in his way ….

    Bruno

    November 5, 2019 at EST am

  6. Naturally, Obama wouldn’t have need to use back channels because he doesn’t have a 90% resistant or at least reticent executives to follow through ….

    Bruno

    November 5, 2019 at EST am

  7. This is a dumb take. If you hate Trump so much that you’re definitely going to vote for his opponent no matter what then you say you’re going to do that that even when given the option to say you’ll vote 3rd party or stay home. Conversely, when forced to make a binary choice low information voters (a group generally lacking in strong political positions as well) will break heavily towards the Mystery Candidate whom they know nothing about, as they have been reliably informed that Orange Man Bad. But come next November she’s not going to be so much of a mystery candidate anymore, even for these very dumb voters. Many will simply be repelled by her ugly shrewishness or by claims she’s a secret socialist or whatever. And they aren’t going to be forced into a binary choice then either–they can still stay home or vote for a third party. I agree that these soft-Warren supporters will tend to break for her, but some will go for Trump, and probably many will prove that they were telling the truth the first time around and stay home or vote 3rd party.

    Personally I don’t think Trump will be re-elected either. But these particular poll actually makes things look better for him, to the extent that polls at this time matter. (i.e. virtually not at all.)

    HEL

    November 5, 2019 at EST am


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