Lion of the Blogosphere

Will Bernie have a huge blowout victory in Iowa?

This “Upshot” article from earlier this week in the NY Times

This “Upshot” article from earlier this week in the NY Times explains why Bernie is going to win in Iowa. According to the NY Times poll, Biden has a hefty lead of 8 points among respondents who voted in the 2018 primary, but Bernie has an even bigger 10-point lead among respondents who attended the caucuses in 2016.

And on top of that, take note of this article from earlier this month in the LA times about Bernie’s on-the-ground operation to get his Hispanic supporters in Iowa, who never caucused before, to the caucuses.

Bernie could win Iowa not by a squeaker but by a huge blowout.

* * *

There were two new Iowa polls yesterday:

The Monmouth poll of people who voted in a previous primary shows Biden in the lead, but the Iowa State University poll of likely caucusgoers has Sanders in the lead and Biden in fourth place.

Thus, the Iowa poll is correct and the Monmouth poll is wrong because it’s polling the wrong people.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

January 30, 2020 at 7:14 AM

Posted in Politics

26 Responses

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  1. Lion, your blog is getting stale. Bernie sucks; he’s an old Commie Jew cliche who had a HEART ATTACK!

    Talk about college again. It’s out of date and it’s a racket that has literally ruined the lives of millions of bright young people. It RAVAGED the millenials and young Xers.

    Most people are not really equipped for higher education until they are older. The whole thing is a massive fraud and waste of young human potential and lives. College debt should be forgiven because the so-called education provided in most cases is without value, and in all cases is intangible; unlike property.

    A society should be geared to getting young people working and married YOUNG. Our society, gives young people endless hoops, debt, worthless degrees, and inceldom.

    And by the time they recover and are capable of doing things right. . .IT’S TOO LATE!

    fakeemail

    January 30, 2020 at 8:31 AM

    • What’s wrong with Bernie being Jewish. Too bad he’s a self-hating Jew.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 30, 2020 at 8:35 AM

      • He is merely an old Jewish cliche and it’s time for his ilk to shuffle off with all the other relics if his era.

        I’m SOOOO done with WWII, Boomers, the 60s, etc. Our society has been so focused on these “glory days” for SOOO LONG.

        Meanwhile, we don’t have a society anymore.

        fakeemail

        January 30, 2020 at 8:51 AM

      • So what do you want from me? I’m not the one voting for him. I voted for Trump.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 30, 2020 at 8:59 AM

      • The fact that he doesn’t identify with the historic America, but rather sees himself as an adversary to it. As I said in another comment recently, he’s a Howard Zinn or a Noam Chomsky.

        Have you ever noticed how often he says “this country?” Liberals who hate America are always using that phrase. “It’s a travesty that we don’t have single-payer universal health care in this country,” “people of color are subject to violence every day in this country,” etc. It’s like they’re saying “this land that I currently happen to be standing on, but have no affinity for.”

        Hermes

        January 30, 2020 at 10:31 AM

      • “ Too bad he’s a self-hating Jew.”

        Query: compare Jews to Gentiles for numbers of tribal members of either tribe who have abandoned the faith of their elders for the social justice religion?

        Curle

        January 30, 2020 at 11:27 AM

      • “Have you ever noticed how often he says “this country?”

        Yes, I’ve noticed it. And you raised a good point. An aside: I also use that phrase occasionally. And I can tell you that when I use it it’s only when I’m being critical, such as “I can’t believe this country is putting up with ______.” Or the phrase “the country that” as in “I can'[t believe the country that insisted all my life on A is now telling us that B is acceptable.” It’s as if, with both phrases, I’m saying “the country that I live in but increasingly feel alienated from” Truthfully, I can’t honestly remember the last time I felt patriotic.

        Maryk (the g-loaded guidette)

        February 1, 2020 at 5:49 PM

    • I agree with fakeemail. Bernie sucks ass. His policies are unsustainable and would wreck the economy. And he’s 10 years too old. If he won, he’d be 79(!) when he took office. Plus, he had a heart attack a few months ago. He’s a joke. But his showing in the polls isn’t funny. It’s just sad and troubling at the same time. It’s like a movie where everyone cheers for the retarded kid. Only in this case, the retarded kid is a treasonous commie throwback from the cold war. As way too many jews were. And there’s plenty wrong with that.

      I also agree that for too many kids, college has become a scam that ruins lives. I’m not saying that higher education is existentially bad. I’m saying that the way it’s being done is destructive for too many young people. There has to be a better way. This issue has been lightly touched on here in the past. But there’s a lot left to be said. I’m not sure you or I understand everything that’s wrong or needs to be done. But there are serious problems. Costs have grown way faster than inflation. There’s serious discrimination in admissions. No, not discrimination against blacks or affirmative action against whites. I’m talking about discrimination against Americans in favor of rich foreigners who pay full tuition in an attempt to “buy” a green card after graduation. There’s an even more serious problem with regional and class discrimination favoring rich whites over more qualified poor whites. Also, students are encouraged to study useless fields with poor employment prospects that leave them saddled with debt they can’t afford. Not to mention forcing everyone to take humanities propaganda courses run by radicals having nothing to do with their majors. Then, when they graduate, they’re thrown over in favor of cheaper and less capable H1B’s. And that’s just off the top of my head.

      Interestingly, that kind of does tie in with Bernie as he’s glummed onto problems in higher education as a campaign issue. But, in true idiot fashion, he’s actually made it worse by ignoring the real problems in favor of horse shit about “free tuition”. His campaign slogan is “We screw the other guy and pass the savings on to you!” No wonder that old fool is polling so well.

      destructure

      January 30, 2020 at 9:35 AM

      • Student loan debt default will probably trigger the next financial crisis. A Bernie presidency will signal the inevitable default. However, most of that debt is held by the state, so it’s hard to tell where the cascades will go? The city of Chicago would probably go belly up. So an explosion of the US’s worst blacks would occur. Watch out WI, MI, and IA.

        Watch Tower

        January 30, 2020 at 1:08 PM

      • It won’t because students aren’t allowed to stop paying by filing for bankrupty, their salaries will be garnished, etc.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 30, 2020 at 1:15 PM

      • Forgiving large amounts of student loan debt by federal fiat would probably cause a big crash. The institutions holding that debt would suffer, or if they are quasi-public like Fannie Mae, have to be restructured heavily.

        Confidence in the economy would tank, bringing down equities. There are many people who worked hard to pay their kid’s tuition. Forgiving student loan debt would be a slap in the face for those people.

        I think it would be so damaging to financial institutions, and so personally insulting to so many people, that Congress would simply never do it, no matter what Sanders wants.

        Lowe

        January 31, 2020 at 10:07 AM

      • If a college degree becomes worth less and less while costing more and more, there is clearly an unreconcilable imbalance. If people can’t pay, they can’t pay. Wage garnishment will only work for those who can pay and/or those working inside the formal economy. The informal economy is growing do to the same factors that are driving student loan debt. The economy continues to become more unequal. The rat race is rigged against the middle, those who still believe that striving works. They continue to believe they can school their way out of it. No, that kind of school isn’t worth much anymore. At some point, the chronically indebted will default. They can’t keep up.

        Watch Tower

        February 1, 2020 at 2:08 PM

  2. He’ll do well in Iowa and the Northeast, and then get crushed in the South – like last time.

    Brendan

    January 30, 2020 at 10:03 AM

  3. “The Monmouth poll of people who voted in a previous primary shows Biden in the lead, but the Iowa State University poll of likely caucusgoers has Sanders in the lead and Biden in fourth place.

    Thus, the Iowa poll is correct and the Monmouth poll is wrong because it’s polling the wrong people.”

    I strongly suspect you have misinterpreted the Monmouth poll.The Monmouth methodology says it looked for people who “voted in at least one of the last two state primary elections or the 2018 general election or have registered to vote since November 2018.” Here’s a crazy idea: when they say “primary election” they mean the caucuses because that’s the major primary they have in Iowa.The caucuses are a kind of primary election, not a completely different thing.They have caucuses in midterm years too. It is frankly bizarre to imagine that they are excluding them.

    HEL

    January 30, 2020 at 12:21 PM

    • “Here’s a crazy idea: when they say “primary election” they mean the caucuses because that’s the major primary they have in Iowa.”

      No, they have primaries in Iowa like every other state, caucuses are something they only do once every four years only for the presidential nomination.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      January 30, 2020 at 1:12 PM

      • https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/26/iowa-caucuses-back-but-focus-year-state-races/1049276001/

        You are incorrect. They have caucuses every 2 years. They are not just for the presidential elections. This is very easy to look up Lion.

        HEL

        January 30, 2020 at 2:00 PM

      • interesting

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        January 30, 2020 at 2:27 PM

      • It’s true that off year caucuses aren’t the same as presidential ones. They aren’t binding. But they exist. And the bigger point remains . . . caucuses ARE the form of presidential primary election. The idea that they are leaving out the the 2016 caucuses deliberately is highly dubious. Could they really be stupid enough to think that voting in a primary not directly related to the presidential race a few months after the presidential caucus is a better predictor of future caucus attendance than actually going to that caucus? They really want to suggest that attending the previous presidential caucus is of no value in determining if you’ll go to the next one? The only plausible explanation would be trying to deliberately suppress Sanders support by excluding the kind of person who supported Sanders but is otherwise uninterested in voting when he is not on the ticket. I can see pollsters doing that of course, but I’d expect it to be in a less heavy handed way.

        HEL

        January 30, 2020 at 3:01 PM

  4. Well reading a bit more at Monmouth I am
    beginning to think you were right all along. The language they use in the methodology for South Carolina and New Hampshire polls references “participating” in the last 2 election cycles, either the general or the primary. This phrasing would surely include caucusing if that was what those states did. Only Iowa expressly references “voting” in the primary. It’s curious that they’d use more specific language here and also be inaccurate. Which suggests that they are being slippery rather than sloppy, and that the prior presidential caucus doesn’t count. Curious. Perhaps the weirdness of caucusing means that it isn’t as good a predictor of future behavior even when that future behavior involves caucuses? Or maybe they’re putting a thumb on the scale.

    HEL

    January 30, 2020 at 3:52 PM

  5. Bernie is Howard Dean II. Iowa Democrats are insecure about their state’s first-in-the-nation status and feel pressure to give momentum to someone “electable.” The average caucusgoer is about 55 which is Biden’s demo. He and his surrogates will play the Obama nostalgia card heavily in the next few days. I don’t see Bernie getting a blowout win.

    Fiddlesticks

    January 30, 2020 at 4:20 PM

    • I don’t either. I could be surprised, but I think the DNC isn’t going to be caught off guard when it comes to Bernie like they were last time, and it’s hard to imagine that they won’t arrange a squeeker for Biden to ensure everyone that he’s electable.

      Mike Street Station

      February 1, 2020 at 10:55 AM

      • Republicans couldn’t stop Trump, so I don’t think Dems will be able to stop Bernie.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 1, 2020 at 11:17 AM

      • They already stopped him once, with superdelegates.

        All it takes to stop him is two screaming black women, anyway. He’s clearly very stoppable.

        Lowe

        February 1, 2020 at 3:04 PM

      • Well the Democrats were able to stop Bernie in 2016 because they had the nomination infrastructure to rig the nomination and an establishment strong enough to rig things at the caucus and primary level. Remember all of those coin tosses Hillary won? The GOP didn’t have that because they thought they had their voters on a leash and didn’t have a way to stop Trump. If they could have, they would have.

        Mike Street Station

        February 1, 2020 at 3:43 PM

      • Hillary Clinton was the heir apparent, Biden is not. The anti-Bernie establishment has no idea who they’re supposed to support. The senile 77-year-old?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 1, 2020 at 4:42 PM

      • Well they know they don’t want Bernie.

        It’s started already. The main poll before caucus day was “cancelled?” When does that ever happen?

        Mike Street Station

        February 2, 2020 at 8:24 AM


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