Lion of the Blogosphere

Wuhancoronavirus, should we be worried?

For starters, I say that people are spelling it wrong, it should be one word with no spaces: Wuhancoronavirus.

It’s my impression that a lot more people in China have or have had the virus than the official count. Therefore, it’s my impression that, on the one hand, it’s less deadly than the 2% figure being tossed about. Most people who get it probably only have minor symptoms which don’t require medical attention. The downside of this is that it means it’s likely to become a global pandemic because that would mean it has a higher transmission rate.

Let’s suppose that it only has a 0.5% death rate (five times greater than the flu), but has twice the transmission rate of the flu. This would make the virus unstoppable and if 100 million in the U.S. catch it, then there will be 500,000 deaths in the U.S. (mostly of older people and others in bad health before they caught it). Making it ten times worse than the flu.

We will probably know in another week if cases outside of China start rapidly multiplying.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 3, 2020 at 3:41 PM

12 Responses

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  1. Screw WCV, Rush Limbaugh has advanced lung cancer. I’m bummed.


    February 3, 2020 at 4:03 PM

  2. ” it should be one word with no spaces: Wuhancoronavirus.” I’m sure that is how German’s write it, they are big on long compounds. I know you are alluding to the fact East Asians don’t put spaces, btw.


    February 3, 2020 at 4:17 PM

  3. I wanted to call it the “Wu-tang flu.” I’ve also seen the shorter “wu-flu” used.


    February 3, 2020 at 9:25 PM

  4. It is a nice time to visit Vietnam. All flights and buses from China are banned so rare opportunity to visit the country without having to deal with annoying Mainland Chinese tourists. Many of the shops here have signs out front saying “Chinese Not Welcome” or “No Serve Chinese”. Koreans seem to be coming in far fewer numbers than normal too out of fear of getting sick and though Koreans are not really annoying (to the contrary, I quite enjoy seeing the cute Korean girls with their nice dresses and fancy hat) it still adds to the relative peace and quiet. I booked my flight before all this nonsense, but I imagine you can get some pretty decent fares now. One thing to remember is that we are entering pollution season in South East Asia so if you do come in stick near the beaches. Da Dang, Nha Trang, Phu Quoc, ect. Ditto for Thailand.


    February 3, 2020 at 10:41 PM

    • I visited Hanoi couple of years ago so I could do Halong Bay cruise. It did not disappoint. Beautiful.
      Maybe visit rest of Vietnam some other time.


      February 4, 2020 at 2:08 AM

  5. My BIL was in Shanghai for a month recently and became violently ill with “bronchitis”. Fortunately his wife is the daughter of a high party official and he got in a top grade hospital and pulled through but in retrospect we all think he had the coronavirus.


    February 3, 2020 at 11:17 PM

  6. Normal flue is 0.15% mortal on average (1 in 700). Spanish flue had a mortality rate of 3%. Normal flies contaminate between 3% and 30% of a country population.

    So the best case scenario for a population of 300M (to make it easier), is 10M infected and 15k death (the mildest flue on a winter) and the worst would be 100M infected and 3M dead.

    There is no way to know yet. The Spanish flue killed the teens first. At least this one attacks the usual suspects : old or sick people (babies too I guess).


    February 4, 2020 at 2:42 AM

    • 2019-nCoV:
      – The Death rate of 4,9% in the Wuhan epicenter. Elsewhere, it’s about 2-4%
      – The r0 is somewhere between 3-4. Very high contagion rates! The infection curve keeps getting higher everyday.
      – It’s been transmitted to 25 countries.
      – There have been local horizontal )person-to-person) transmissions in Japan, Hongkong, Singapore and Germany without these people ever having been to China.
      – There have been both asymptomatic and postsymptomatic tranmissions of nCoV.
      – nCoV seems to be mostly targeting (and hard targeting) East Asians, men and the elderly. Many nCoV infected also get secondary infections
      – 17% have ARDS afterwards or organ damage.
      – The Wuhan animal meat market is not necessarily the source of the infection (according to the Lancet)

      Anybody who still thinks this is like the flu or not a big deal is ignorant, uninformed or dumb.


      February 5, 2020 at 3:57 AM

  7. The official name is 2019-nCoV. Other than the CDC and WHO, the only mainstream use I’ve seen has been in Barron’s. There isn’t yet a name for the respiratory illness or syndrome.


    February 4, 2020 at 10:12 AM

  8. I know Lion isn’t a doctor, but the couple of paragraphs he wrote here are more thoughtful and useful than anything else I have read on the novel corona virus outbreak from Wuhan.


    February 4, 2020 at 10:53 AM

  9. Look here:

    Right now it is 493 deaths, and 500 recovered. So from the people who had caught the virus and recovered, about a *third* died!. From those who have the virus and didn’t recover or died, we don’t know how many will recover vs die.

    The fast spread of the virus changes the math. you can’t simply divide the deaths by number of cases.


    February 5, 2020 at 4:45 AM

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