Lion of the Blogosphere

Buttigieg surge in Nevada poll

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html

The most recent poll has Mayor Pete in 2nd place with 17%. I don’t think he’s going to catch up to Bernie who’s at 30% in the same poll, but if we have a repeat of Iowa, I expect to see Pete outperform his numbers. In Iowa, Biden did far worse at actual caucuses than he did in pre-caucus polling, and Pete picked up more of his lost votes than anyone else. I think that this pattern will repeat itself tomorrow. If Mayor Pete can come in with a another strong second place finish, and beat both Klobuchar and Warren by a respectable margin, then he becomes the presumptive “moderate” challenger to Bernie. I believe that Bloomberg is toast after his horrible debate performance, no matter how much money he spends on ads. And I predict that Biden will drop out after coming in second place in South Carolina behind Bernie.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 21, 2020 at EST pm

Posted in Politics

27 Responses

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  1. Today on Slate a physician did an analysis of Sanders’ future health prospects based on what we know about last fall’s heart attack. TL/DR: the risk isn’t huge, but it’s definitely not trivial.

    https://slate.com/technology/2020/02/bernie-sanders-heart-attack-health-risk-profile-campaign.html

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    February 21, 2020 at EST pm

    • Even if Bernie doesn’t have ANOTHER heart-attack it doesn’t matter. Just having one severely weakens and limits a man; physically and mentally.

      fakeemail

      February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • I had one seven years ago and had a stent put in. It hasn’t limited me. I don’t even notice any difference. Although I am around 25 years younger than Bernie.

        Jay Fink

        February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • If sheeps put Bernie into office then humanity in America should get the Yakov principle.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        February 21, 2020 at EST pm

  2. How does Trump not get re-elected running against either an 80 year old socialist or a 40 year old queer?

    Tom

    February 21, 2020 at EST pm

    • >>How does Trump not get re-elected running against either an 80 year old socialist or a 40 year old queer?

      Demographics. Trump’s margin of victory in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida is already dead, buried, moldering in the grave.

      Daniel Heneghan

      February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • I don’t see Trump losing to Mayor Peter Buttsex of South Bend Over, Indianus, but when it comes to Bernie, the demographic argument is correct. Bernie supporters tout the fact that he has massive support among the young, but like all leftists they’re deceptive about demographics, knowing that when most people hear mentions of “the young” they instinctively think young heritage Americans, and fail to realize that because of the great replacement the young are much less white than the old. The one saving grace is that the young, and especially Hispanics, who make up a big chunk of Bernie supporters, don’t vote as much as the old, so it’s possible that despite polls saying people support Sanders, that support won’t amount to much come the election.

        Hermes

        February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • I think Trump will lose to whomever runs against him, and right now I think that person is most likely to be Bernie. I also think everyone on this blog is underestimating Mayor Pete and he will beat Bloomberg for second place. But Bernie will NOT pick Butti for his running mate because they hate each other. Plus, Bernie knows whomever is his running mate is very likely to take over, given Bernie’s age and his previous heart attack. Bernie’s running mate will be a true believer in his movement.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • There is plenty of space for white people to stop voting Democrat.

        map

        February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • The problem with the Democrat debates is that they are not really debates. There is no real winnowing and sifting of the candidates…Gabbard did that once and Warren did it once…but none of Bernie’s ideas have been tested under fire. He is just regurgitating his script without challenge.

        map

        February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • >> I think Trump will lose to whomever runs against him,

        And if Trump comes to an understanding of this over the coming weeks/months, what is the likelihood of Trump declaring that he is not running, that he has accomplished all he needed to accomplish, that he is leaving the country in good shape, that the November elections is for a chump like Romney to lose? Why not do this, it would be very Trumpian. Trump would hate to lose to any Democrats, but losing to an 80 year old, hippie socialist is just too much for his pride to bear, especially since it is not his fault but the fault of the Cucks who have allowed this great demographic replacement to happen.

        Trump can decline to run, leave it for a schmuck like Romney to lose. Then Trump can spend the remainder of his years blaming the loss on the the GOP, Romney/Jeb/whatever-Cuck, asserting that he left the country/economy in good shape and the GOP screwed up a slam-dunk, that if he had run he would easily have run.

        What are the odds of this coming to pass? What do the prediction markets say about Trump not running.

        Daniel Heneghan

        February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • You’re saying you think Bernie Sanders is going to be the next president of the United States, and if that’s the case, I’m surprised you’re not writing about that fact more. For someone like Bernie Sanders to be the president of the United States, or perhaps as he will want to be known, the President of This Country, is unprecedented.

        Hermes

        February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • Possibly right about Michigan and even Florida, but polls in last days show substantial margin for Trump in Wisconsin, and the Dems’ anti-fracking stance will kill their chance in PA.

        However, looking further out into the future, it is hard not to conclude that we are already a left-wing country and drifting further along.

        Many years ago a colleague at work characterized the indifference of the electorate as attributable to a combination of inattention, complacency, and ignorance. He termed it “Gilligan’s Island and a can of beer.”

        It may already be too late, but those people will most certainly pay attention when they can’t get a bank account, credit card, and possibly even phone or utility service if they are deemed “haters”. If they haven’t had their guns taken from them by then, the SHTF.

        370H55V

        February 21, 2020 at EST pm

      • Who is going to take American’s guns, exactly?

        The problem with gun confiscation is that the only people who make decent soldiers and police are rough white men, exactly the people who love gun rights.

        Guns will probably be made illegal in the US, and the rate of gun ownership will go up at the same time. Lots of laws go unenforced in Latin American shitholes, and it will be no different in the US.

        And who exactly is going to build and maintain this corporatized 1984 police state where you are shut out of the economy if you are a “hater?” The monkeys they put in television ads? The Chinese? Hahaha, they had thousands of years to develop high technology, and they did not.

        White men are the only people capable of building or sustauning anything complex. Without enough white men, the dreams of the rich and powerful will stay just that: dreams.

        Lowe

        February 22, 2020 at EST pm

    • Mostly demographics, nothing personal.

      Goodstuff

      February 21, 2020 at EST pm

    • Bernie’s going to go to Michigan. He’s going to find some abandoned factory. He’s going to rail against the billionaires who closed it down. He’s going to paint Trump as one of them, in league with them.

      People have rosy retrospection. They remember the factories paid a lot more than McDonalds. They don’t remember that part of that was because they were more physically straining, dangerous, dirty, loud, ect. They don’t remember how those jobs were often hereditary, with fathers passing them down to sons and using the union to keep other people out. All they remember is you could get a good job on your eighteenth birthday.

      The average person does not understand economics. The economy is a vague, malevolent force that Bernie will promise to tame. On the micro level, they understand it a bit better. If someone closes down their restaurant, they’ll understand that it was because it wasn’t making enough money, that it’s something the owner didn’t want to do. But if a factory closes down, well “Wall Street” is screwing people over, taking something from them. Bernie’s going to come in and say, that doesn’t need to happen. You show up to work and you’ll get paid. It sounds like a perfectly reasonable deal to economically illiterate people.

      Alexander Turok

      February 21, 2020 at EST pm

  3. Today I’m in Petaluma, CA, which is sort of Haight-Ashbury meets pick-up truck culture. After driving around for about a half hour, I haven’t seen a single Bernie sticker. Kinda odd.

    Marty

    February 21, 2020 at EST pm

  4. They are all running out of money but for Sanders and Bloomberg.

    quote:”While Sanders started February with nearly $17 million in the bank, according to campaign finance disclosures filed Thursday night, his next closest rival (nonbillionaire class) was Biden, at $7.1 million. Warren was closest to the red, with just $2.3 million left in her account, while Buttigieg ($6.6 million) and Klobuchar ($2.9 million) were in between.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/fec-bernie-2020-funding-116558?fbclid=IwAR3K7cdCznA7AjVjuWl6fjo_J2vUm6XxQxFH-Imw4gb34QRknrXM-U23sk0

    I hope Mayo Pete stays in until Mid-March, that will help divide up the moderate vote in a way that will make it impossible for anyone to catch Bernie, by mid-March about 60% of delegates will be allocated. All Bloomberg’s money won’t change the fact Bernie will go in to the convention with a plurality of votes.

    GrassMudHorse

    February 21, 2020 at EST pm

    • Mayor Pete has been better at raising money than anyone else in the race besides Bernie. I think he will have good fundraising in February.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 21, 2020 at EST pm

  5. Jared Taylor has a new video out that spotlights Bloomberg defending in blunt terms his stop and frisk several years ago. All most makes me want to vote for him! I’d certainly vote for him over the likes of Jeb!, Rubio, etc.

    fakeemail

    February 21, 2020 at EST pm

  6. As someone neither white nor American can someone explain to me the pathology at play that keeps otherwise sane white Americans from voting for their best interests. Although none of the Democratic candidates are particularly good for regular law abiding, tax paying citizens, Mike Bloomberg sticks out as a particularly nasty individual. As mayor of NYC he was happy to use stop & frisk against minority youth inorder keep the streets safe for the wealthy whites of his city, but as a Presidential candidate he shows nothing but contempt for middle Americans who might wish for a sliver of the same safety and security. The man is a hypocritical scumbag. I loved Warren’s take down of him during the Nevada debate.

    Roli

    February 21, 2020 at EST pm

    • When are politicos are ever honest or most important, consistent with their principles?

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      February 21, 2020 at EST pm

  7. Gallup: Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Record 49%

    at this moment in his presidency, Trump is on par with his immediate predecessors [who] won reelection.

    “polling indicates that 63% of Americans approve of how Trump has handled the economy”

    “Unemployment stands at a fifty-year low. 59% of Americans say they are better off financially now than they were one year ago, a record-breaking number for Gallup polling. Furthermore, 74% of Americans believe they will be better off financially next year.”

    “The most significant foreign policy action taken prior to the survey was the U.S. assassination of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani [with] 53% of Americans approv[ing] of Trump’s military action, while 45% oppose the escalation. Overall, 47% of Americans broadly approve of the way Trump is handling foreign affairs.”

    President Trump’s approval rating among small business owners hits all-time high of 64%

    On the other hand…

    Trump defeats all 2020 Democrats in Wisconsin but loses in Pennsylvania and Michigan

    As you know, he needs PA and MI to win. But that’s hardly discouraging because…
    1) The match-up between Trump and likely Dem nominees is close.
    2) The campaign between Trump and the Dem nominee hasn’t even started.
    3) The msm has been bashing Trump relentlessly for over 4 years. So it will be easier to drive the Dem nominee’s support down than Trump’s.
    4) Polls predicted Trump would lose those states last time but he didn’t.
    5) Even if he loses PA or MI he may also pick up an unexpected state somewhere else.
    6) At this point, it looks like Bernie is the favorite. And he’s older than dirt with a bad ticker.

    destructure

    February 21, 2020 at EST pm

    • Actually, if all other states vote as in 2016, while PA and MI flips, Trump would still win with 270 electoral votes if he holds WI.

      trey

      February 21, 2020 at EST pm

  8. I think the easiest prediction of this election cycle is whoever wins the Dem nomination picks Stacy Abrams from Georgia as VP nominee.

    Milestone D

    February 21, 2020 at EST pm

  9. Lion,
    Trump is going to India and the Indian PM has promised Trump 7 million crowd of people between airport and newly built stadium to honor Trump.
    7 million people. Outstanding.
    Maybe some extra h1b Visa issuance is in order to Indians for this effort.

    mpt

    February 21, 2020 at EST pm

    • “Maybe some extra h1b Visa issuance is in order to Indians for this effort.”

      I hope not. Like all sensible people Indians come to an organization and hire only their own. When you go into a 90+ white metropolis and the city finance department is both headed by an Indian and his staff is composed exclusively of Indians even though the city both population and government had nearly 0 Indians 20 years ago you come to grasp certain realities about ethnic bonding.

      Add to the above these obnoxious Brahmin types who look down on whites and bash cops and you have a heady brew of BAD.

      https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/crime/kshama-sawant-sued-for-defamation-by-2-seattle-officers-who-fatally-shot-che-taylor/

      Curle

      February 22, 2020 at EST am


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