Lion of the Blogosphere

Thursday morning pandemic update

No good news this morning.

We have the first case in the U.S. of community transmission.

Italy now has 528 cases and 14 deaths (although many, maybe all, of the deaths are people who were in a hospital for other reasons who got infected), South Korea has a whopping 1,766 cases, an increase of 555 in just one day.

How many cases would we know about in the U.S. if we could test as many people as South Korea is able to test? I bet a lot more than one. This one case in California is the tip of a large and scary iceberg.

The same applies to Japan, which is also not testing a whole lot of people, even as the number of cases in the country now stands at 207. There is a strong suspicion that it’s worse in Japan. Japan announced today that ALL elementary through high schools will be closed in the ENTIRE country beginning on Monday and through April. I think if we were doing enough community testing in the United States, we would be doing the same thing.

Cases are appearing all over Europe, apparently spreading out from Italy. And all over the Middle East spreading out from Iran.

S&P 500 futures are down another 0.91% as of 7:16 AM EST. On February 6th, I told you to sell your stocks. People who didn’t listen should have listened.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 27, 2020 at 7:32 AM

54 Responses

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  1. In 2008 the stock market crash was caused lack of licvidicy. The coronavirus is totally different thing. There is no lack of money now. Stock prices are function of money supply and coronavirus won’t affect amount of money in circulation.

    tmmm

    February 27, 2020 at 7:57 AM

    • A stock goes to zero if the company goes bankrupt because it can’t make it’s debt payments because it’s revenue has plummeted. No matter how much helicopter money is out there.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 27, 2020 at 8:21 AM

      • Companies can always issue (junk) bonds or stocks. If there is helicopter money around, they can easily raise new capital and avoid bankruptcies.

        tmmm

        February 27, 2020 at 9:55 AM

      • Helicopter money (aka Repo money) is still debt that has to go on the ledger. A company can’t lever up to infinity because shareholders/board seat holders/C suite execs would not allow it. The company charter may not allow it as well. The government would probably not allow it, but in theory they could.

        So you either get helicopter money and default (bankruptcy) and get more, or you go out of business. Either way the stock goes to zero.

        Avoiding bankruptcies with helicopter money is for temporary cash flow disruptions, not structural profitability issues.

        Paul Ryan's Sickly Old Lap Dog

        February 27, 2020 at 7:53 PM

    • The stock market crash of 2008 was not caused by a lack of liquidity. Please stop repeating this tired trope pushed by everyone trying to support the current financial ponzi.

      The crisis started when Lehman Brothers’ counterparties discovered that it was out of good collateral for REPO 105 transactions and it all went downhill from there. Lehman wasn’t the only bank holding bad collateral, otherwise when they failed, it would have simply washed through the system. No, instead when they failed, all the other banks began having to mark their financial assets to market, and combined with over leveraging they would have all had their equity wiped out. Not to mention all buyers of mortgage backed securities, asset backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (debt obligations backed by pools of other first level debt obligations such as mortgage backed securities), and credit default swaps were broken due to the fraud in mortgage markets and inaccurate representations of collateral and collapse in the credit default swaps market thanks to the mis-pricing of risk, thanks again to the collaterized debt obligation of credit default swap market.

      The closest thing that can be said is the financial crises was exacerbated by a lack of liquidity, but the fundamental problem was one of solvency. We had reached a Minsky Moment where too much debt had been accumulated, with not enough surplus earnings (at all levels except governmental) to cover it.

      The consumer tapped out around 2000. America’s corporations tapped out in 2007-2008.

      Paul Ryan's Sickly Old Lap Dog

      February 27, 2020 at 7:50 PM

    • Stock prices are a function of stocks’ ability to generate money. They are not tulips.

      Alexander Turok

      February 27, 2020 at 8:51 PM

  2. Hey, Lion —

    Thank you for the advice to sell. I moved my retirement from 80/20 stocks to 80/20 bonds. That saved me quite a bit.

    But the dry air-transmission angle is huge and is not being reported. I wrote a paper on it in the last week based on it and here it is:

    ———————————————–

    Defending Against COVID-19 Through Indoor Humidification
    Daniel A. Hess
    Researcher, Rockville, MD
    February 26, 2020

    Overview
    There is ample research showing that viral outbreaks similar to COVID-19 are strongly correlated with humidity levels. Cold and flu generally peak during the winter months in temperate zones, when indoor humidity is low. Notably, influenza and cold viruses tend to survive far longer in the air when the ambient humidity is low than when the ambient humidity is high. Further, there is strong evidence that the severity of respiratory infection is similarly humidity dependent, as lower humidity leads to more severe flu illness and greater likelihood of death. Influenza and COVID-19 are very similar in that death typically results from pneumonia that leads to acute respiratory failure.
    Thus, indoor humidification, particularly to 50% relative humidity or higher, is seen as a strong partial defense against COVID-19, by two different mechanisms. First, by reducing the amount of time that virus particles remain infectious in the air, humidification is expected to substantially reduce R0, the reproductive number that represents outbreak contagiousness. Second, by reducing severity of respiratory infection, mortality rates from COVID-19, currently estimated at 2.3%, may be substantially reduced.
    Indoor humidification is readily available almost everywhere and can be achieved by common humidifiers and even by boiling water in impoverished areas where humidifiers are not available. Available research strongly suggests that humidification in homes, hospitals, schools and other public areas will dramatically reduce both COVID-19 transmission and COVID-19 mortality among those who become infected. Even in areas where medical infrastructure becomes overwhelmed during pandemic conditions, indoor humidification will remain widely available as a defense against COVID-19 infection and severity.
    Evidence so far is strong that COVID-19 exhibits climate and seasonal characteristics similar to influenzas and the common cold. By mimicking the environmental conditions of the summer months through indoor humidification, it is believed that COVID-19 incidence and severity will be sharply reduced.
    Indoor humidification, especially to 50% relative humidity or higher, is likely to emerge as a robust tool that will be widely adopted as a defense against COVID-19.

    I. Virus particles remain active longer in dry air than in humid air: citations

    1. Noti et al. (2013) High Humidity Leads to Loss of Infectious Influenza Virus from Simulated Coughs. PLoS One. 2013; 8(2): e57485.

    2. Tamerius JD, et al. (2013) Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates. PLoS Pathog 9:e1003194, and erratum 2013 Nov;9(11).

    3. Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol 8(2): e1000316.

    4. Shaman J, Goldstein E, Lipsitch M (2011) Absolute humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza. Am J Epidemiol 173: 127–135

    5. Lowen AC, Mubareka S, Steel J, Palese P (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.

    6. Schaffer FL, Soergel ME, Straube DC (1976) Survival of airborne influenza virus: effects of propagating host, relative humidity, and composition of spray fluids, Arch Virol. 51: 263–273.

    7. Hanley BP, Borup B (2010) Aerosol influenza transmission risk contours: A study of humid tropics versus winter temperate zone. Virol J 7: 98.

    8. Yang W, Marr LC (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.

    9. Shaman and Kohn (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248

    II. Susceptibility to respiratory infection is greater when ambient humidity is low than when ambient humidity is high: citations

    1. Kudo et al. Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019.

    2. Makinen et al. Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462

    3. Eccles R (2002) An explanation for the seasonality of acute upper respiratory tract viral infections. Acta Otolaryngol 122:183–191.

    4. Iwasaki A, Pillai PS (2014) Innate immunity to influenza virus infection. Nat Rev Immunol 14:315–328.

    5. Chen X, et al. (2018) Host immune response to influenza a virus infection. Front Immunol 9:320.

    6. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (2008) The pathology of influenza virus infections. Annu Rev Pathol 3:499–522.

    7. Bustamante-Marin XM, Ostrowski LE (2017) Cilia and mucociliary clearance. Cold Spring Harb Perspect Biol 9:a028241.

    8. Oozawa H, et al. (2012) Effect of prehydration on nasal mucociliary clearance in low relative humidity. Auris Nasus Larynx 39:48–52.

    9. Kudo E, et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function, innate resistance against influenza infection. NCBI BioProject. Available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ bioproject/PRJNA528197. Deposited March 20, 2019.

    III. Applicability to COVID-19

    The emergence of COVID-19 during winter in temperate zones strongly suggests that COVID-19 is similar to flu and cold viruses in its correlation with ambient humidity levels.
    COVID-19 outbreaks to date have overwhelmingly been in temperate zones where indoor humidity in winter is low. To date, major outbreaks have occurred in China, Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran. Each of these outbreaks occurred in a temperate country in the midst of winter, where indoor humidity would be expected to be quite low. There are few cases and no known major outbreaks of COVID-19 in tropical and subtropical regions. Notably South America, Africa, and the Indian subcontinent have few reported cases and (as far as the author is aware) no known cases of local transmission, suggesting that the warm and humid conditions in those regions hinders COVID-19.
    Singapore, notably, had what appeared to be the beginning of a major outbreak of COVID-19 around February 14, 2020. Instead the incidence of new COVID-19 infection in Singapore has since diminished dramatically and there have been no COVID-19 fatalities in that country. Most patients in Singapore who tested positive for COVID-19 have already recovered, as of this writing. This favorable outcome strongly suggests to the author that the warm and humid climate of Singapore has been protective against COVID-19 transmission and severity.
    The environmental conditions of Singapore could be substantially replicated through indoor humidification, especially to 50% relative humidity or higher, and in this way major reductions in COVID-19 transmission and severity can be achieved in other countries.

    IV. Preparing for Seasonal Re-Emergence
    As noted, evidence available so far strongly suggests that COVID-19 contagiousness and severity are strongly dependent on ambient humidity levels, and thus COVID-19 occurrence is expected to diminish during the summer months.
    However, re-emergence of COVID-19 during the winter of 2020-2021 is likely as indoor humidity levels in the Northern Hemisphere again drop. The author hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available and in wide distribution by that time. This may require a reduction in the regulatory hurdles that slow the development of vaccines in the United States and elsewhere.

    —————————
    Humidity is a huge way people can save their lives from this. Colds and flus are not active in summer because viral outbreaks don’t thrive in humidity. Then we need to re-create humid summer conditions to minimize this. Friggin obvious and nobody sees. There is a huge amount of research on this. See above. The stupidity of humanity knows no bounds. Too stupid to live, some might say.

    Dan Hess

    February 27, 2020 at 8:18 AM

    • Reams of portfolio simulations have shown that an 80% equity allocation is totally insane. You were massively overweight stocks, virus or not. 25% is more reasonable, no matter one’s age. You want roughly a fifth each of equities, high quality bonds, gold, money market cash, “other” (real estate, volatility futures strategies, etc).

      You want to own about 30 individual stocks. Do not buy funds or ETFs. Buy 30 wildly different stocks and never ever sell anything. Let the winners run forever. Let the losers drop to zero and get de-listed. Then pick a new stock to bring your total back up to 35.

      bobbybobbob

      February 27, 2020 at 8:42 PM

    • This would explain why the virus hasn’t caught on in Vietnam and petered out in Singapore once they stopped allowing flights from Hubei Province. Thai Health Minister who was being mocked by liberals on Twitter for saying virus would “melt” in a month or two as the hot rainy season approaches was correct!

      I agree with you that the utter lack of curiosity in the MSM and Establishment Governments as to why the virus has exploded in Japan, China, and Korea but isn’t spreading in any of the hot and humid countries to the South of China represents stupidity on an unimaginable scale. I wonder if HBD Denial plays any role in this? The intellectual process of coming to terms with HBD denial requires the “smart” people of the West to skip past the most simple and basic scientific observations and explanations in favor of more complex “non-racist” solutions. Is that conditioning their minds in a way that is seeping over in to issues don’t even involve HBD?

      If this were the movie “The Andromeda Stain” the first thing the scientists would be trying to figure out is what is true about Korea/Koreans that is not true about Vietnam/Vietnamese. Vietnam is less sanitary, has worse hygiene and health care, has had more contact with China, and has even higher degree of communal socialization practices than the already high Koreans. And yet Vietnam isn’t suffering a mass outbreak while Korea is.

      PerezHBD

      February 27, 2020 at 11:43 PM

  3. Just for fun (and because I shared some of your concerns at the very start) I took a “play” rollover IRA that I had kicking around that was originally balanced between a gold ETF, an index fund, a 1-3 year treasury fund, and a 20 year treasury fund. On 2/10 sold all the index fund and put it all in good ETF. Wow. I should have done that with my real one. But I’m not cavalier enough with my “real” retirement to actually do that.

    Keyser Soze

    February 27, 2020 at 8:23 AM

  4. Slightly crazy theory (I admit) but could the CDC be part of the Resistance? Everyone knows what happened to Bush with the Fed. government’s response to Katrina, why not allow something along the same lines to develop with the Fed. government’s response to Covid-19. It’s an election year, makes Trump look bad, so it might impact a few geriatric types (who you know die) but it might be worth it b/c Orange Man Bad. Having a few hundred dead bodes with a delayed response to Covid 19 is a small price to pay for getting rid of the American Hitler.

    SamLowry

    February 27, 2020 at 8:59 AM

    • The people at the CDC definitely hate Trump. There also seems to be a lack of communication between the CDC and the Trump administration. Which is probably the fault of BOTH sides.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 27, 2020 at 9:31 AM

      • The CDC official pushing the panic narrative is Dr. Nancy Messonnier, who just happens to be the only sister of…Rod Rosenstein.

        The head of the CDC, a Dr. Azar, is on message with the Trump administration. It’s just this hysterical deep state tool related to another hysterical deep state tool that is pushing the panic button.

        map

        February 27, 2020 at 10:44 AM

      • This is why you have to be skeptical of these claims. Why wouldn’t the deep state fake a pandemic to try to get rid of Trump? We’ve already had evidence of John Kerry and other Democrat officials in Iran doing God-knows-what. Lo and behold, we have “Iranian” outbreaks, with the Chinese “discovering” this virus, the same Iranians and Chinese who have the most to gain from removing Trump.

        map

        February 27, 2020 at 10:50 AM

      • Of course they hate Trump: they’re scientists.

        Anthony

        February 27, 2020 at 2:05 PM

      • map,

        Your new theory sounds more far fetched than your original one about this being some kind of US sabotage against China.

        Tom

        February 27, 2020 at 2:06 PM

      • Tom,

        What is farfetched?

        Let’s go to Scientific American…

        https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-flu-actually-kill-people/

        Quote:

        “Worldwide, the flu results in three million to five million cases of severe illness and 291,000 to 646,000 deaths annually, according to the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; the totals vary greatly from one year to the next. The CDC estimates that between 1976 and 2005 the annual number of flu-related deaths in the U.S. ranged from a low of 3,000 to a high of 49,000. Between 2010 and 2016 yearly flu-related deaths in the U.S. ranged from 12,000 to 56,000.”

        So, we have this thing called the “flu” which is killing anywhere between 12,000 and 56,000 people a year in the US alone…and nobody bats an eye (no pun intended)…but this “new” respiratory illness, which has infected 56 people, is supposed to cause a panic.

        Worldwide, there are 3-5 million people getting the flu every year, and between 291,000 to 646,000 fatalities.

        How many have died worldwide so far?

        Do you see the problem?

        map

        February 27, 2020 at 3:26 PM

      • The new virus may be 10 to 20 times more deadly than the flu, plus more contagious so more people would catch it, so deaths could be one to two million in the U.S. alone. Let’s not risk that happening.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 27, 2020 at 3:30 PM

      • “The CDC official pushing the panic narrative is Dr. Nancy Messonnier, who just happens to be the only sister of…Rod Rosenstein.”

        Back when Rosenstein was trying to sabotage the Trump presidency, I noticed that his sister was high up at the CDC. But, as far as I know, she hasn’t done anything to whip up hysteria. She’s merely said that it will likely spread within the US; which I agree with.

        map’s death stats for seasonal flu ended with a high of 56,000 in 2016. But over 80,000 died from seasonal flu in 2018. I wouldn’t necessarily assume that’s because flu is getting worse. Flu affects older people more and there’s more older people because people are living longer and the baby boom generation was very large.
        **
        “The new virus may be 10 to 20 times more deadly than the flu”

        The wu flu may have been 10 to 20 times more deadly in China and Iran. But it has definitely NOT been that deadly elsewhere. The death rate being bandied about is skewed by the numbers from China and Iran that have not only had the most infections but been the most deadly.

        The 2017-2018 flu killed 80,000 Americans. So this flu strain has a LONG way to go before it reaches that point. And flu season is about over. There could be a vaccine before it comes back next year. So panicking is premature. Especially considering that the 2017-18 flu season hit California and New York hardest. I don’t really care about those states because they hate America and make excuses for rapists and pedophiles.

        destructure

        February 27, 2020 at 5:54 PM

      • Destructure,

        I am amazed there is a disease that killed 80,000 people in 2017-2018, and I have heard almost nothing about it.

        BTW, here is this for tracking coronavirus:

        https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

        map

        February 27, 2020 at 9:03 PM

    • Cdc strategy: Kill all the people to stop Trump?

      Dan Hess

      February 27, 2020 at 12:02 PM

      • No. The CDC strategy is: spread panic so the economy craters and orange Hitler loses the next election. Come on, folks, this isn’t rocket surgery.

        NWS4EVR

        February 27, 2020 at 4:49 PM

  5. Snow day! (Rather, month…) Imagine the childcare problems this would cause in the US with so many single parent (and two working parents) households… How do you deal with that for a month?
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/27/national/hokkaido-coronavirus-school/#.XlfhKqhKjYU

    Kosher Kowboy

    February 27, 2020 at 10:39 AM

  6. Dammit I should have listened. I was leaning that way but didn’t pull the trigger. I think the “don’t try to time the market” conventional wisdom was meant for a time before easy trading.

    I think I could have sold a fair amount of mine (without even much tax consequences) fairly easily for a few weeks until the what-was-fairly-obvious approaching coronavirus panic hit and subsided (and pocketed the maybe ten percent difference). Oh well. Just going to ride it out now.

    trey

    February 27, 2020 at 10:41 AM

    • I didn’t time the market. Without the virus, I would have no idea when the market would crash. I just knew where the virus was going and didn’t ignore it like everyone else.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 27, 2020 at 10:55 AM

      • So, Lion, when to get back in the market? Looks like the Chinese are marching people back to work…

        Thanks, BTW, for your dogged coverage.

        Robert the Libertarian

        February 27, 2020 at 9:59 PM

    • No resistance? By that you mean your body doesn’t eradicate it completely, and you remain a carrier.

      I don’t think these people got sick again. But anyway, this makes it seem like there is no stopping it. Everybody will catch it eventually?

      Lowe

      February 27, 2020 at 11:56 AM

      • I’m not sure how they’re retesting, but there are many viruses our bodies never totally eradicate and which lie dormant forever. Human papillomaviruses, herpes simplex viruses, and the varicella-zoster virus which causes chicken pox, and later in life, shingles. Doesn’t mean the person is contagious or symptomatic.

        Hermes

        February 27, 2020 at 12:31 PM

      • Most people have the herpes 1 (not herpes 2, which is genital herpes) virus, which causes cold sores around the mouth. It stays dormant in your body and flares up when you’re tired and haven’t slept well, causing the cold sores.

        Tom

        February 27, 2020 at 2:13 PM

      • Herpes 1, the cold sore virus, is transmissible asymptomatically. Thankfully, its effects are not that serious besides annoying cold sores, although some believe it may be involved in more serious diseases like Alzheimer’s.

        The chicken pox virus stays in your body and can cause shingles when you’re older, which can be very serious. This is why they recommend getting the shingles vaccine when you’re older.

        Tom

        February 27, 2020 at 2:18 PM

      • Humidification is the answer, see above.

        People will eventually catch on about humidification, and I might become famous, but a lot of people will die.

        Sad!

        Daniel Hess

        February 27, 2020 at 7:45 PM

      • Daniel Hess,

        Thanks for the humidifier information.

        The problem is that I did once set a humidifer to something like 50% and I ended up in a room wet enough to curl printer paper.

        map

        February 27, 2020 at 10:34 PM

      • “Daniel Hess,
        Thanks for the humidifier information.
        The problem is that I did once set a humidifer to something like 50% and I ended up in a room wet enough to curl printer paper.”

        No, humidity at 50% will not curl printer paper. That is normal summer humidity, or even higher.

        If people humidify, everything will be fine. Unfortunately the whole world fails to get this.

        Dan Hess

        February 28, 2020 at 12:39 AM

    • The virus mutates rapidly, meaning you could develop antibodies for one version only to be infected by a mutated version.

      This is likely caused by an HIV like protein found in the virus, which also allows it to easily bond to cells. There is more than one indication that this virus was artificially produced in a lab.

      Red pill aspie

      February 27, 2020 at 3:51 PM

  7. “However my stock advice has always been very bad, so I could be totally wrong about that and maybe you should buy now in anticipation of selling to greater fools in the future.”

    Lion of the Blogosphere, December 19th, 2017

    Hermes

    February 27, 2020 at 11:40 AM

  8. Whoa, did you see this Lion?

    rivelino

    February 27, 2020 at 12:27 PM

    • I did, and I don’t know what to make of it.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 27, 2020 at 12:34 PM

    • That is par for the course with viruses. Most of them are permanently embedded in your cells to varying degrees. People think this is only the case with herpes and HPV, but that’s not true. It’s also true of artifacts of various bacteria.

      Periods of stress and low immunity can trigger pathological expression of all sorts of DNA you’ve picked up over the years. A large fraction of the human genome is clearly viral in origin.

      bobbybobbob

      February 27, 2020 at 8:52 PM

      • “That is par for the course with viruses. Most of them are permanently embedded in your cells to varying degrees. People think this is only the case with herpes and HPV, but that’s not true. It’s also true of artifacts of various bacteria. Periods of stress and low immunity can trigger pathological expression of all sorts of DNA you’ve picked up over the years. A large fraction of the human genome is clearly viral in origin.”

        Thanks Bobby. You sound like you know what you’re talking about.

        So that element of the virus isn’t something that I should worry about?

        rivelino

        February 28, 2020 at 7:10 AM

  9. Sorry good link: https://imgflip.com/i/3qhp9i

    simplednd

    February 27, 2020 at 1:38 PM

  10. Chinese news reports that coronavirus has an “HIV like mutation” that allows it to easily bond to cells:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052495/coronavirus-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say

    This fully confirms the withdrawn Indian research paper claiming that the coronavirus had protein structures commonly found in HIV, meaning that the virus was likely manufactured in a lab rather than naturally occurring.

    Red pill aspie

    February 27, 2020 at 2:23 PM

    • Yes…the Biovix paper.

      map

      February 27, 2020 at 3:27 PM

  11. “This one case in California is the tip of a large and scary iceberg.”

    LOL! Maybe Asians should be frightened. The fakestream media are hyping bat flu because they want a recession that ends Trump’s presidency. The fakestream media and Democratic Party (but I repeat myself) know their nominees cannot beat President Trump if the economy stays strong.

    NWS4EVR

    February 27, 2020 at 4:45 PM

  12. Oh, great! A new herpes and you don’t even get to have sex to get it.

    CamelCaseRob

    February 27, 2020 at 6:08 PM

  13. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51214864

    Symptoms.
    81% develop mild symptoms
    14% develop severe symptoms
    5% become critically ill

    Death rate by health.
    0.9% – no health problems
    6% – high blood pressure
    6% – long-term lung problems i.e. smokers
    7% – diabetes
    11% – cardiovascular disease

    Death rate by age.
    0.5% – 80

    “These are not the true death rates, as some patients still being treated may yet die and many mild cases are going unnoticed.”

    Also, as I’ve mentioned in other comments, these are Chinese stats. And the disease has had a much higher death rate in China (and Iran) than other countries. Since older people are more likely to have health problems, those health and age death rates are connected. Young, healthy people in developed countries have very little to worry about.

    destructure

    February 27, 2020 at 6:34 PM

    • All these stats are nonsense because the tests don’t work and never will. There’s a decent chance I’ve already “had” it. The denominator embedded in the stats is Silly-Test-That-Doesnt-Work ∪ People-With-Flu-Symptoms. So it’s meaningless.

      Nobody has any numbers that mean anything and these people posting panicked geometric graphs are blowing smoke. The only metrics that matter are ICU pneumonia cases and deaths. I was really worrying about this thing about three weeks ago because it was plausible that huge numbers were dropping dead in China and they were covering it up, but the data is now clarifying that it’s way overblown. Huge numbers of people simply are not getting very badly ill or dying. Enough time has passed that this is clear now. Wake me up if 400+ people are dying every day. The realistic worst case scenario we face right now is they shut down schools for a few weeks to slow the spread so not so many geezers get it all at once, so there are enough ICU beds for the ones that need oxygen to pull through.

      bobbybobbob

      February 27, 2020 at 9:37 PM

    • The “death rate by age” numbers got screwed up because I used “” symbols for people under 50 and over 80. WordPress read that as html tags and basically deleted everything between them. I reposted that comment with corrections but Leon approved the wrong one.

      destructure

      February 28, 2020 at 4:45 PM

  14. Already a while ago, there have been reports that the virus can be well treated with anti-HIV drugs. And there are reports that there is no immunity for it, meaning you can get reinfected or most likely the virus can stay dormant in the patient and not easily detected just like HIV. But the mortality is still fairly low. I do not know what to make of this. Getting kinda tired of all the hoopla, personally. But the panic mode is on and the recession is likely coming.

    Goodstuff

    February 27, 2020 at 7:19 PM

  15. South Korea reporting fewer cases today than yesterday and no deaths (only 13 deaths total out of 2000+ infected)… is this a positive sign?

    bluto

    February 27, 2020 at 8:54 PM

  16. In this evenings news there are reports of a HHS whistle-blower complaint. Apparently the woman complained that HHS officials were not using proper protective clothing in meeting people being quarantined at Travis Air Force Base Travis Air Force Base is in Solano County, California where the first case of transmission in the US was reported yesterday.

    I doubt the HHS officials the whistle-blower complained about where responsible for that transmission because the incident she complained about was on Feb 19th and this patient was already sick enough to be admitted to the hospital on Feb 19th. My guess is that the quarantine procedure at Travis Force Base have been rather lax and someone who worked on the base has transmitted the virus to civilians outside the base.

    MikeCA

    February 28, 2020 at 2:39 AM


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