Lion of the Blogosphere

I told you so, again

Back on February 14th I wrote:

So it looks like Japan has gotten more aggressive about testing people with pneumonia for the virus, and lo and behold, they are finding virus cases. We have NOT been doing any testing in the United States. I am almost certain that aggressive testing of pneumonia patients in the U.S. would turn up some virus cases. It’s not believable that there have been zero new cases in the U.S., outside of quarantine, during the last week.

Looks like I was totally right about that. As soon as testing finally started happening, we are now finding cases here in the United States. Total fuckup by U.S. government to have waited so long. Expect more and more bad news in the coming few days.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 29, 2020 at 8:55 PM

26 Responses

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  1. What do you think about President Fillmore’s sending 4 frigates to “open up” Japan? We have so many more problems at home here with potential slavery in the territories, “filibustering,” etc. Why are we projecting power around the world when we haven’t even settled the Mormon question?

    Eight Score and Seven Years Ago

    February 29, 2020 at 9:17 PM

  2. At this point, Trump should get up there and make an announcement that we have a national emergency, and that everyone who has symptoms or was likely exposed to the virus should report in for testing. If we can contain it now we might be able to stop it.

    I doubt that that is actually going to happen though.

    JayMan

    February 29, 2020 at 9:22 PM

    • I agree that’s what should happen. And I also doubt it will happen. I don’t think it’s either possible or necessary to stop the virus; just slow it down a little so that medical facilities aren’t overwhelmed. Everyone is going to get it eventually. But it’s much better if everyone gets it over 2 or 3 years instead of 2 or 3 months.

      Normally, I’m a harsh critic. I tend to be more lenient in a crisis because brow-beating people under stress rarely helps. It’s better to give them the support they need to get their act together and mobilize a coordinated response. But I’ve yet to see evidence of that. They need to do it very soon.

      destructure

      March 1, 2020 at 7:29 AM

      • Now that it’s clear the fatality rate is tiny, we should have coronovirus transmission parties and just get it over with as soon as possible. Empowering governments to control movement over three years sounds foolish and economically devastating.

        bobbybobbob

        March 1, 2020 at 4:21 PM

      • “Empowering governments to control movement over three years sounds foolish and economically devastating.”

        I didn’t say the government should place the country on a three year lock-down. But we can absolutely do more testing and put reasonable restrictions on the hardest hit areas to keep the spread from overwhelming hospitals.

        destructure

        March 2, 2020 at 11:19 PM

  3. Another note about seattle area, the public schools had “mid winter break” (a concept unknown to me on the east coast), in which the Asian families pilgrimage back to asia. Break was over as of this past Monday, so timing works out.

    Joe

    February 29, 2020 at 9:36 PM

  4. Just saw a video, two people at a care home in Washington state tested positive, now in hospital.

    Frau Katze

    February 29, 2020 at 9:46 PM

    • And many more from that place have symptoms of covid 19

      Rosenmops

      March 1, 2020 at 1:33 AM

  5. This is a massive overreaction on a worldwide scale. I am close to many infectious disease specialists who maintain that the death rate is on par with the flu. And the spread will slow drastically as the weather warms.

    I also have friends in Italy where, although schools are close, people are still boarding planes.

    SWPL2

    February 29, 2020 at 10:18 PM

    • Let’s get this straight: do you honestly believe China would close a city of ~10 million people and shut down most of its economy for “just the flu”?

      Yeah, people are still boarding planes in Italy because they’re stupid. I just hope Europe doesn’t find that out the hard way. With overwhelmed hospital ICUs due to lack of draconian quarantine measures, death rate from this might get to 10%.

      PrinzEugen

      March 1, 2020 at 4:29 AM

      • Yes. There is no way China would lock down big cities, with the resulting hit to their economy, if they didn’t have a good reason.

        Frau Katze

        March 1, 2020 at 5:24 PM

      • It’s always important to be cautious but past pandemics spread far and wide doing immense damage during periods of warfare, chaos, crisis, and collapse. That sort of situation is NOT occurring and governments are much better prepared today both domestically and internationally. Even the United States government has the legal authority to close down cities/regions. Unless the elite suffer they’ll absorb the economic damage just fine.

        redarmyvodka

        March 3, 2020 at 12:24 AM

  6. This is actually good news. The number of exposures is far higher. That means mortality is far lower. In Wuhan I bet the true exposures are like 10 million. In that case, death rate would be very low. They only tested people who were deeply ill.

    Dan Hess

    February 29, 2020 at 10:37 PM

  7. So, how are people in a nursing home who have never been to China or in contact with a person from China or Asia suddenly coming down with the corona virus?

    It sounds like there is a desperate push to get everyone tested so the test can proclaim a sudden increase in corona virus infections.

    It is all very fishy.

    Again, this is the deep state play. The next step is for this “test” to miraculously create all kinds of false positives.

    map

    February 29, 2020 at 10:42 PM

    • “So, how are people in a nursing home who have never been to China or in contact with a person from China or Asia suddenly coming down with the corona virus?”

      There are apparently a lot of people who have the virus but have only mild symptoms. Perhaps they flew in from China, or associated with someone who did. But because their symptoms are so mild they never sought medical help and never got tested. So they are out there in the community passing it around, Sometimes it gets passed to more vulnerable people who do get very sick.

      Rosenmops

      March 1, 2020 at 1:40 AM

    • 50 patients at a nursing home in an area known to have the virus suddenly present symptoms. If you were in charge of that home, wouldn’t you have them tested?

      destructure

      March 1, 2020 at 1:56 AM

      • They ARE being tested right now. There will probably be results out soon.

        Rosenmops

        March 1, 2020 at 2:33 PM

      • Ah yes, the tests, the tests, the tests. Which don’t really work. Testing provides the illusion of control people crave here.

        The antibody tests don’t work for this stuff. There are lab tests that probably work, but are so expensive it’s infeasible.

        bobbybobbob

        March 1, 2020 at 4:28 PM

      • The news is moving fast now. Last night I heard of two with Covid in Washington state. By this afternoon, a state of emergency has been declared, test results are back, showing the virus has been circulating in the area for several weeks.

        By the time you read this, there will be even more news…

        Frau Katze

        March 1, 2020 at 5:05 PM

      • My point was that there’s nothing “fishy” about testing at the nursing home.

        destructure

        March 1, 2020 at 6:32 PM

    • Yeah, this seems more like it. Health care is full of liberal Trump hater types who would love to make him look bad. Those types also are fine with the elderly and smokers dying off.

      Alice

      March 1, 2020 at 6:22 AM

      • Alice,

        Maybe they got infected because the staff has a large Asian population the migrates around the world, but are these staffers going to test and quarantine themselves?

        map

        March 1, 2020 at 4:07 PM

  8. So I took a hard look at the data and I think I see some good news.

    My observations are:
    1) Singapore completely nailed this. Early port closures and extensive testing plus excellent treatment = 72 recoveries, 0 deaths with 71% of the cases resolved.

    2) ***If*** the Chinese data is accurate, China has a) largely contained this and b) improved treatment outside of Hubei. Pretty amazing in a country of 1.3 billion.

    3) When you factor in that there are a lot of infected people that we don’t know about, the death rates are probably pretty low in countries with good healthcare

    4) PROVIDED that people are tested, quarantined and scared into taking precautions, the spread of this can be largely arrested or slowed to a very slow burn.

    So while it’s really unconscionable that the FDA and CDC fucked up the response by not testing, I can actually see this starting to taper off AFTER another big round of panic next week when the tests start showing that we have actually hundreds or possibly thousands of people infected.

    The key countries to watch next week will be South Korea and Italy.

    ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS: China and Singapore both decided that it CANNOT be contained and that it’s better to pretend that new cases are tapering off, send everyone back to work before the economy is destroyed and just bite the bullet of a flu season that’s about 5 or 10 times deadlier than usual.

    • China cannot be trusted. Singapore, I can’t say, but I tend to trust.

      Watch their actions, not their words, When the lock downs in China are lifted, that’s the thing to watch for.

      As for the data, perhaps it shows that severe lock downs really work. That would be good to know.

      Frau Katze

      March 1, 2020 at 5:19 PM

    • Thanks Mark, great info!

      Robert the Libertarian

      March 2, 2020 at 1:11 PM

  9. It seems like there’s a huge outbreak in the Netherlands also. A leak from the Dutch CDC, the RIVM, showed that 76 of 178 suspicious pneumonia cases tested positive for Covid19. They still need to do a second test for confirmation.

    https://pastebin.com/K98w9gqq

    Remember, the first case in NL was Friday, 28th of February. We were at 10 today, 1st of March.

    This thing is a monster

    Maciano

    March 1, 2020 at 6:45 PM


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