Lion of the Blogosphere

Saturday morning pandemic update

There is no good news. There are now FOUR cases of community transmission in the United States, two in California, one in Oregon, one in Washington. Once you start testing people, you find cases.

I believe that what happened is that after the discovery of the case of community transmission in California, the following day the CDC finally (after weeks of inaction) modified its criteria to allow people with “Fever with severe acute lower respiratory illness (e.g., pneumonia, ARDS) requiring hospitalization and without alternative explanatory diagnosis (e.g., influenza)”even if they haven’t traveled anywhere. Also, the countries of recent travel that allow lesser symptoms to be tested has increased to include China, Iran, Italy, Japan, and South Korea.

Also, it appears that some test kits are now available in those Western states that reported the fiindings.

The patient in Oregon worked in an elementary school, so now there’s the fear that other people from the school, students or staff, could also have caught it.

The patient in Washington is a high school student, and since he wouldn’t have been tested without severe respiratory illness, that shows that young people aren’t completely immune to getting the disease and coming down with severe symptoms.

Because of our failure to test for the last month, how many more unknown cases are out there, and in how many places? What’s worrisome here is that the new cases of community transmission are not in a single geographic area but spread out all over the place.

An article from Science Magazine from Friday afternoon:

Speed is critical in the response to COVID-19. So why has the United States been so slow in its attempt to develop reliable diagnostic tests and use them widely?

The World Health Organization (WHO) has shipped testing kits to 57 countries. China had five commercial tests on the market 1 month ago and can now do up to 1.6 million tests a week; South Korea has tested 65,000 people so far. The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in contrast, has done only 459 tests since the epidemic began. The rollout of a CDC-designed test kit to state and local labs has become a fiasco because it contained a faulty reagent. Labs around the country eager to test more suspected cases—and test them faster—have been unable to do so. No commercial or state labs have the approval to use their own tests.

In what is already an infamous snafu, CDC initially refused a request to test a patient in Northern California who turned out to be the first probable COVID19 case without known links to an infected person.

The problems have led many to doubt that the official tally of 60 confirmed cases in the United States is accurate. “There have been blunders, and there could be an underlying catastrophe that we don’t know about,” says epidemiologist Michael Mina, who helps run a microbiology testing lab at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. “It’s been very complicated and confusing for everyone with almost no clarity being provided by the CDC.”

The situation may soon improve. State labs and commercial diagnostic developers hope to win approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for their own tests, and FDA and CDC on Wednesday agreed on a workaround for the faulty CDC kit—which has a problem that is not essential to its proper functioning—so that it can now be used by at least some of the state labs that have it.

But there’s widespread discontent with the way the system has worked. “The U.S. government has not appropriately prioritized diagnostic tests and supported the laboratory response network to the degree they should have been supported over the years,” says Luciana Borio, who in previous jobs had lead roles in responding to emerging threats at the National Security Council and FDA.

If a new disease emerges, CDC normally “gets the ball rolling” with diagnostics because it has the expertise and the biosafety laboratories to handle dangerous novel pathogens, says Borio, who now works for In-Q-Tel, a not-for-profit venture capital firm. Typically, there are few confirmed viral samples from patients at the outset, which researchers need to validate their tests, and CDC has the capability to grow the virus for this critical quality assurance step. Once the agency has a working test, that goes out to state labs. Then, in a third phase, commercial labs take over and either produce their own tests or scale-up the CDC one. “I would have hoped to see that third phase by now,” Borio says.

What a huge fuckup. Who knows how many more people will die from the virus because of the failure of government to get its act together.

I saw the following post on reddit. Of course any bozo or troll can post on reddit, but it sounds believable:

So, my husband is a doctor in the midwestern US at a family health clinic. 2 days ago a fellow doctor told him that he had a patient in that day and the patient was presenting flu like symptoms. The patient had been to mainland China less than 4 weeks ago. The patient tested negative for flu and the doctor just let him go. He told my husband there was no testing unless symptoms started 14 days after and it had been 21. And he said they had no way to test anyway.

My friend, who is a pediatrician, posted an Instagram story today about how she had been to Hawaii last week. There was a known case in Hawaii a week before they were there. My pediatrician friend said that when they arrived home, her husband spiked a high fever and started coughing up blood. They went to the ER and they told them all of this but they did not test for corona. After neg flu they treated him for pneumonia and sent him home. She said in her story that this is her speculating, but she thinks that it’s already spreading rapidly and the US just isn’t testing or letting anyone know.

Here’s a comment from reddit about the wisdom of political candidates holding campaign rallies while there’s a dangerous virus on the loose:

I’m hoping every single politico in America is going to these and coughing and shaking hands with each other and just generally giving each other a massive dose of virus, that the election is not ultimately decided by a popularity contest but a battle royale of geriatric immune systems.

In New York City a man returned from Japan, he has illness with a cough, tested negative for the flu, but he can’t get tested for the coronavirus because his symptoms aren’t severe enough. How many hundreds, maybe thousands, of people in the United States have the virus right now?

South Korea, now able to test large numbers of people per day (unlike the United States) has increased the total number of cases to 3,150, more than 800 additional cases in one day. Deaths have increased to 17.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 29, 2020 at 8:18 AM

63 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. “Who knows how many more people will die from the virus because of the failure of government to get its act together.”

    Still waiting for that first US death, though.

    IHTG

    February 29, 2020 at 8:44 AM

    • IHTG

      February 29, 2020 at 1:03 PM

  2. I think you have been watching to much left wing spin media. The flu is killing more people this year than this virus. I would guess more people die ‘blunt object violence’ and food poisoning. The coronovirus is killing mostly the old and the young and that’s with a compromised immune system. Getting the flu is worse.

    Someone

    February 29, 2020 at 9:18 AM

    • No, getting the flu is NOT worse. Besides which there are vaccines for the flu. Covid 19 is 10 or 20 times more deadly than the flu. Covid-19 is not typically killing young people. But people over 60 are a quite high risk. Maybe 2% for people 60 – 70. So you catch a cold, but there is a 2% chance it will kill you. You just brush off old people like they don’t matter. And people with compromised immune systems.

      Rosenmops

      February 29, 2020 at 3:31 PM

      • There is some type of antipathy in some young people towards baby boomers. I cannot explain it. I have seen it over and over in Youtube comments.

        Frau Katze

        February 29, 2020 at 3:59 PM

      • Some kind of antipathy… a mystery wrapped in an enigma, certainly.

        Lowe

        February 29, 2020 at 7:54 PM

    • A country like China would not be locking down major cities for no reason at all. They are certainly losing money over this. Their reaction tells us a lot.

      Frau Katze

      February 29, 2020 at 3:56 PM

  3. You are still believing stock markets can go down or you have already started to buy?
    Especially energy sector dipped very much this week, but before the closing of the markets it started to recover. Energy sector has been very cheap already and now it seems bargain. But maybe if coronavirus is really an issue, oil prices can go down even further, although we start to be in financial crisis prices already.

    tmmm

    February 29, 2020 at 9:18 AM

    • More bad news coming, supply chain problems will really start to show up mid-march, definitely not the time to buy. Still time to sell.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 29, 2020 at 9:41 AM

      • Roger that, Lion.

        The issue for now is not so much how many people get the Coronavirus. This is so far few compared to the flu.

        The problem is the illness-induced supply-chain/consumer-chain disruptions and delays spreading from China and now Italy into the E.U. The US gets a lot of supplies from China and sells a lot to the EU.

        China is supposedly getting people back to work but even if all the problems were solved to-morrow it will take a bit to get back to normal.

        A secondary effect is major sell-offs and changes happen on really bad-sounding news that may in the long run not be so bad. Problems can be blamed on the general economy reacting to Acts of God beyond anyone’s control. So its an ideal time for long-overdue cleaning up by announcing bad news, big corporate CEO’s resigning, bankruptcy re-organizations especially where taxes can be avoided, marking bad assets down, mass firings and contract re-negotiations, governments to wiggle out of commitments, discount and move out slow/old inventory (watch for fire sales), and plain profit-taking before it gets worse. That is exactly what is happening. If you’re too cautious to sell your stocks, OK, so find discounts. I’ve just saved several thousands buying ahead on things I wanted. I also just raised my credit limit just in case. So, look for deals.

        Let me add this for the next ‘Coronavirus’ or other panic or problem. A lot of formal libertarians follow the Browne-Gilson strategy of radical thrift then subdividing and re-balancing every 1-3 years 4-5 equal portfolios of don’t-sell stocks or mutual fund, real estate/hard goods like gold, bonds/to speculate stocks, cash. Plus they’re prepped to the gills. Many help their communities prep. This provides increasing stability while the politicians lose their minds. It was what got us through the tax/war-induced crash of 2008. It works for me.

        Robert the Libertarian

        February 29, 2020 at 11:01 AM

      • The coronavirus epidemic has been going on in China already couple of months. If there would be meaningful problems with supply chain I think we should see it already. I however don’t see any hint of it anywhere. The only thing I can see are some travel restrictions in corporations. These restrictions might affect some airline companies and reduce oil demand, but otherwise it is quite meaningless.

        tmmm

        February 29, 2020 at 11:28 AM

      • ” If there would be meaningful problems with supply chain I think we should see it already. ”

        We DO see it if you know where to look.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 29, 2020 at 1:04 PM

    • I think when first deaths are reported the panic will really set in. I wonder if this type of virus can easily mutate, if yes a more deadly form might appear. The Spanish Flu pandemic had three waves lasting about 1.5 years. First wave began in March and subsided over summer. The most deadly was the second wave that started in October. Also, is Pope already sick with this or is he staying away because he is afraid to catch the bug ?

      Goodstuff

      February 29, 2020 at 10:50 AM

  4. You won’t recall, but for a couple of weeks prior to last I actually saying this was being downplayed. And that it was a much bigger deal than what was being reported. But for the past week, I’ve been saying it was much less serious than what was being reported. It’s not that I’ve changed my opinion. It’s that they they were originally under-reporting it and are now over-reporting it. They’ve gone from one extreme to another.

    I noticed that and said something was fishy. Well, it turns out there was something going on. An options expiration period ended Friday a week ago. And they were propping up the markets. When the options expired, they no longer needed to do that. As jayman(?) pointed out, that big NYT story about the virus didn’t break until 1 minute after the markets closed that Friday. Then the chips hit the fan on the following Monday. So, yeah, they were sitting on it. Just more evidence that there’s really no such thing as a “free press”.

    It’s a bad flu strain. But it’s still just the flu not the plague. And flu season is winding down. So once they mobilize and get the test kits and procedures in place they’ll get this under control pretty quick. I understand that they’ve already gotten it under control in China with some factories starting back up.

    destructure

    February 29, 2020 at 9:35 AM

    • Why do people keep saying it’s just a bad flu strain? It is a completely different virus. Most agree its symptoms are not as bad as influenza – it is just far more infectious and appears to easily provoke pneumonia that is difficult to recover from.

      There is no vaccine.
      There is no individual or herd immunity built up over decades of exposure.
      The specifics of the disease seem to make it an ideal candidate to spread far and wide without hindrance among populations.

      Perhaps this will defuse, I think there is a decent chance it will. But – it’s more likely it’s a pandemic that will have deep and long lasting impact on the world.

      At this point we dont even have an idea even of what we are facing in the US, because, as Lion keeps saying, we arent testing.

      Paul Rise

      February 29, 2020 at 10:56 AM

      • Technically, it is a different virus. But calling it a bad case of the flu is a good comparison. Influenza and coronaviruses are both very common respiratory infections. They’re both zoonotic and produce similar symptoms. And they both pose the most risk to the same class of people — older people with serious health problems.

        This particular coronavirus may be a new strain, but coronaviruses are extremely common with four already endemic around the world. I’d be surprised if you hadn’t already had one. No one pays attention to them because they’re so mundane. This one is new so, as you point out, there’s no built up immunity to this particular strain. That means it’s going to hit a lot more people all at once with more serious risks. But after the initial hit dies down, I’d expect it to become just another mundane coronavirus.

        People are freaking out because the last two novel coronaviruses (SARS and MERS) had very high fatality. The fatality was so high, in fact, that it limited the spread. People got died before they could spread it. This virus is much more widespread but doesn’t have near the fatality. It may end up killing more people because of it. But I’d be a lot more worried about dying in a car wreck.

        destructure

        February 29, 2020 at 2:29 PM

    • destructure, when you’re right, you’re right.

      Robert the Libertarian

      February 29, 2020 at 11:09 AM

    • I also have suspicions that the Chinese lockdown was not in fact mostly a reaction against a lethal viral epidemic. It is a smokescreen to cover-up an economy that was collapsing all on its own. Now leaders can write off all sorts of bad debts and frauds and blame the virus rather than incompetence and corruption.

      Three weeks ago I was thinking this epidemic could be really huge, because it seemed like China was massively covering-up fatalities as they shut down the country. But we’ve got better data now and we’re really just not seeing the kinds of deaths to merit serious freakout. It’s raging in Thailand, so where are all the bodies? There aren’t many. People just get sick.

      The global economy was clearly already hitting the skids at the start of this month. Japan and Germany in recession, disappointing numbers out of the USA. I think all kinds of people are going to use “pandemic” as a get out of jail free card for mismanagement and fraud. If Trump was smart he would be doing what Xi is doing, so he blame the recession we were clearly already falling into on the virus. Instead Trump is looking at the actual data and correctly deciding it’s not that big a deal.

      bobbybobbob

      February 29, 2020 at 2:20 PM

  5. France authorities have decided to prohibit all gathering of more than 5k people in any closed space.

    Bruno

    February 29, 2020 at 9:42 AM

  6. The objective is not to stop it but to slow it because authorities don’t want to have seasonal flu and Chinese flu at the same time. So the aim is to get 2 months delay

    Bruno

    February 29, 2020 at 9:44 AM

  7. Your hysteria level is very high Lion. It doesn’t help. People are going to get sick deal with it. And I still don’t believe they have a workable test in terms of time frame if nothing else.

    kline

    February 29, 2020 at 10:58 AM

  8. The CDC is failing at this. In a more sane country, a national response task force would have been set up a few weeks ago, coordinating test and drug production/distribution and hospital prepping, with pretty much unlimited funding. Also, my CVS was busy yesterday – lots of people are rushing to fill their prescriptions. Already, a first shortage has been reported of unnamed drug, more to come.

    Goodstuff

    February 29, 2020 at 11:00 AM

  9. The deaths in Korea are elderly and already had serious health or respiratory problems. The young death (person in 30s) was a medical tourist from Mongolia in need of a liver transplant.

    Edgar Heath

    February 29, 2020 at 11:02 AM

  10. “The patient in Washington is a high school student, and since he wouldn’t have been tested without severe respiratory illness, that shows that young people aren’t completely immune to getting the disease and coming down with severe symptoms”

    Any person with compromised lungs is at elevated risk of getting severe symptoms from this illness, and many young people in recent years have damaged their lungs through prolonged use of inhalers. Might well be the case with this kid in high school.

    Roli

    February 29, 2020 at 12:24 PM

    • Notice how they don’t tell you if the kid is Asian or not.

      map

      February 29, 2020 at 1:56 PM

    • I do not know much about the Washington high school student case but it’s worth pointing that even young people can have comorbidity conditions.

      Years ago, the teenage brother of a friend of my daughter up and died of asthma. I don’t much about asthma, but I remember being shocked that an otherwise healthy teenager could die of asthma. I don’t remember if was flu season or not. There was no unusual flu that was in the news.

      I imagine asthma would make someone more vulnerable to complications of covid-19.

      Frau Katze

      February 29, 2020 at 3:23 PM

  11. “I believe that what happened is that after the discovery of the case of community transmission in California, the following day the CDC finally (after weeks of inaction) modified its criteria to allow people with “Fever with severe acute lower respiratory illness (e.g., pneumonia, ARDS) requiring hospitalization and without alternative explanatory diagnosis (e.g., influenza)”even if they haven’t traveled anywhere.”

    The second case of community transmission was identified because the county lab in Santa Clara county got the test kits on Wednesday and could do its own tests. I think the cases in Washington and Oregon were also tested locally. I have heard around 200 labs across the country will have the test kits by Monday, so I think we will finally start testing.

    MikeCA

    February 29, 2020 at 12:31 PM

  12. FOUR IN ALL CAPS. The kid in wa had a fever and aches, not exactly apocalypse stuff. I wonder how many of those vape respiratory illnesses were related? Came from China product too right? The kid supposedly had no contact with travelers, maybe it’s been here all the time, people get fevers all the time and have never been tested. Seems like there is something about Wuhan that is different, even from the rest of China, although I haven’t looked at the transmission rates and compared.

    Joe

    February 29, 2020 at 12:52 PM

  13. This is an article on the history of the Spanish Flue outbreak. It describes there being three waves of the Spanish Flue. The first wave was mild, like regular flue, but it spread rapidly. The second wave was deadly. Normally flue infects the nasal and throat linings. This makes it easy to spread. It will only infect the lungs in people with weak immune systems. The second wave of the Spanish Flue was a variation that aggressively infected both the lungs as well as the nasal and throat. People could die within hours after becoming ill. The article also talks about how the recently passed Sedition Act caused the seriousness of this second wave to be downplayed, which made the situation worse.

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

    MikeCA

    February 29, 2020 at 12:56 PM

    • People didn’t know about RNA and DNA back then, so no one truly knows if they were the same virus or different viruses.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 29, 2020 at 1:07 PM

      • The Spanish Flu started in Haskell, Kansas. It spread around the world because of the movement of the US military fighting in Europe and moving around to the United States.

        map

        February 29, 2020 at 1:58 PM

      • True. I am currently reading a book on the 1918 pandemic. I hope to learn if the identity of the virus(es) has somehow been discovered. It’s likely controversial.

        Frau Katze

        February 29, 2020 at 3:31 PM

    • The genome of the Spanish Flu virus has been sequenced. Much interesting information here:

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720273/

      Anthony

      February 29, 2020 at 5:59 PM

  14. What happened to my comment about Vietnam reporting no new case of coronavirus for the past 20 days??

    BINGO

    February 29, 2020 at 1:28 PM

  15. IHTG

    February 29, 2020 at 1:44 PM

  16. Hmmm…

    “If a new disease emerges, CDC normally “gets the ball rolling” with diagnostics because it has the expertise and the biosafety laboratories to handle dangerous novel pathogens, says Borio, who now works for In-Q-Tel, a not-for-profit venture capital firm.”

    Hmmmm…

    Something doesn’t add up….

    What is a “not-for-profit” venture capital firm?

    Hmmmm…

    In-Q-Tel…that name sounds very familiar…

    Oh…I know…

    That is the CIA’s venture capital firm…you know…the one that owns Google and Facebook.

    Now I know we are dealing with intelligence operation that is spreading rumors about a virus.

    map

    February 29, 2020 at 2:01 PM

    • Were you born crazy or did you huff too much glue in middle school?

      Some Guy

      February 29, 2020 at 5:08 PM

      • What, did you not notice the coup that fabricated a Russian plot designed to bring down a president?

        Did you not see the coordinated effort of technology companies and intelligence agencies spying on Americans and the executive branch?

        You should go back to having long conversations with Amazon Alexa.

        map

        February 29, 2020 at 10:53 PM

  17. Someone’s died in Washington state from Corona virus (first US death), is it the high school student mentioned here???

    Roli

    February 29, 2020 at 2:09 PM

  18. Given the level of CIA involvement, I call all of this as fake.

    Here is how these hoaxes work:

    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/26/how-to-stage-a-fake-epidemic-and-brainwash-billions-of-people/

    map

    February 29, 2020 at 3:05 PM

  19. The teenager in Washington does NOT have severe illness. He had fever and cough and aches. On Friday he was feeling better and went to school. Before he got into the classroom his test results came back positive, and he went home. A few friends he was with that morning are in isolation. No one knows where he caught it. Apparently Washington state has their own tests now.

    playalongmusic

    February 29, 2020 at 3:09 PM

  20. I see already panicking articles in the Guardian about Trump closing the Mexico border “with no proof that the corona case came from there” because they know too well that people deep inside realise now how important it is the ability to protect your borders. This whole thing will help Trump a lot in the next election because deep inside most people are hysterical like the lion.

    Hashed

    February 29, 2020 at 3:12 PM

  21. I think that I have a very mild case of Coronavirus. I had the flu shot and it feels different than the flu. About a week ago I started feeling warm. Not quite a fever, but almost. Low energy. 2-3 days ago I started aching. Not severe, but definitely not there. I am aching a more today, but overall I feel better. Yesterday (or the day before?) I noticed that I’m not taking deep breaths. So a bit of shallow breathing. Also I have a bit of mucus, so every now and then I clear my throat. I am not going to the doctor because I know that I won’t be tested. I don’t need treatment and I’m not worried. I live in a suburb of a medium-sized city.

    Ohioan

    February 29, 2020 at 3:17 PM

    • You probably have some other virus. Try guaifenesin to help you clear mucus from your respiratory system.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 29, 2020 at 3:49 PM

    • It’s party time! Now that NY is testing, the fun begins. Not buying stocks yet.

      Dan

      February 29, 2020 at 4:05 PM

  22. I work with proles (In WA state home of the first death) and the majority are not thinking about this virus. The next highest group get defensive if you bring it up “Don’t worry about it, the flu is worse”. My Facebook has more of a mix of social classes but pretty much the same thing. One person said this virus is just a bunch of hype and now is a great time to buy stocks because they are cheap. Everyone piled on to agree including a millionaire.

    I think this says a lot about human psychology. It’s normalcy bias. People can’t imagine a big turn for the worse in society or their own life.

    Jay Fink

    February 29, 2020 at 3:45 PM

    • What tells me that this something worse than usual is the reaction of the Chinese government. They cannot be accused of being in league with any Western group. Anyone with any knowledge of geopolitics knows this.

      Yet they have locked down big cities and are certainly losing much money over this. We have all seen the vids by now: doors to apartment buildings being not just locked but barred, teams of people disinfecting streets…

      For what conceivable reason would the Chinese government do this other than a real disease that has a considerably higher death rate than the usual flu’s?

      Frau Katze

      February 29, 2020 at 4:10 PM

      • Frau Katze,

        The problem is that none of that is from official Chinese TV. It is people sending videos on their cell phones. The Chinese are not announcing these measures but they are allowing random citizens to document and post onto the worldwide web?

        Do you see the problem here?

        map

        February 29, 2020 at 10:57 PM

    • “People can’t imagine a big turn for the worse in society or their own life.”

      I can imagine such things very well, unfortunately.
      Be thankful Trump has border controls. Trudeau will not bring in ANY border control, apparently. We are being flooded with sick people from Iran. 4 or 5 infected Iranians have arrived in the last few days. Maybe Trudeau wants to kill old people because they are mostly “old stock” Canadians and don’t vote for him.

      Rosenmops

      February 29, 2020 at 4:26 PM

  23. COVID – 19 follows dry air. Wuhan is more humid now, and things are improving considerably. Of course Lion is determined never to see this blindingly obvious fact, which is being reported by Yale University Medical School.
    See @VirusesImmunity

    Dan

    February 29, 2020 at 4:04 PM

    • I’m not denying that there could be a connection, but it’s extremely foolish and dangerous to believe that the virus will magically disappear when the weather gets warmer and never come back, and therefore we should just ignore the problem.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 29, 2020 at 6:31 PM

      • No, that’s not the point at all. The main point is that mortality is a lot less under humid conditions and you can save a lot of lives by having sick patients in a humid room.

        I never expected or said it would magically disappear and then never come back. Given the seasonality, it will likely diminish in summer and roar back in the fall, at which time it will be everywhere.

        But the humidity connection is important because people need to be ready for it to roar back in the fall. Election time, btw.

        Dan

        February 29, 2020 at 7:21 PM

  24. Lion I don’t know why you think Trump doesn’t have gravitas, I just listened to him talking about covid-19.

    I actually feel calmer after listening to him, even though I am in Canada and our prime minister is an assclown who has NOT closed borders, and we a currently being flooded with sick people from Iran.

    Rosenmops

    February 29, 2020 at 4:59 PM

  25. You naysayers are idiots. Corona virus is twice as virulent as the flu and 10 times deadlier. It’s going to kill mostly old people and sickly people. The death count is going to be well into the 6 figures in the US, In your circle of friends and relatives you’ll probably have a handful of hospitalizations and a death or two. The rest us will just have regular flu symptoms or be asymptotic.

    Wait until a celebrity like the Pope is diagnosed and dies. They you sheep will panicking.

    It’s going to get very very bad but it is not going to be catastrophic. Could be worse if younger adults were as susceptible.

    My put options on spy bought on feb26 have quadrupled. If I wasn’t lazy and bought before the last weekend I would be sitting on a 20 banger.

    duh

    February 29, 2020 at 5:42 PM

    • Your suppositions are based entirely on nonsense Chinese numbers. It is certainly all over the place in Thailand, Vietnam, Iran, and presumably Japan and Korea. Large numbers simply aren’t dying, elderly or otherwise. Wake me up when they are. It’s been enough time that ex-China data should be confirming your concerns, which I originally shared. Hand-wringers are freaking out over tests and positive results, when the stupid tests don’t work and never will, and so are just noise. All that matters is deaths and ICU hospitalizations. We’re just not seeing them in the ex-China data. Where are the scenes of chaos at hospitals outside of China? Even in China under 1000 are claimed to have died, and who knows how accurate those diagnoses were.

      The market was going to blow up roughly now virus or not. Global shipping was already plunging. Chinese banks were failing every other week. We are surely in for a doozy of a recession with all the bad debt run up over the last ten years. Politicians and executives all over the world are going to figure out that “virus” is a fantastic scapegoat.

      bobbybobbob

      February 29, 2020 at 7:03 PM

      • “Even in China under 1000 are claimed to have died,”
        r

        The official number of dead in China fom covid-19 is 2,870. Most experts believe it is considerably higher, since things were very chaotic in Wuhan.

        Rosenmops

        February 29, 2020 at 7:58 PM

      • Betcha many of those deaths are actually from multi-drug resistant TB, which has been raging in China totally independent of the current virus hysteria.

        bobbybobbob

        March 1, 2020 at 1:24 AM

    • If God sent an angel to ask me how much I would pay to see the migrant-loving pope die of Corona virus, I would go as high as $10,000, I think.

      Lowe

      February 29, 2020 at 8:04 PM

  26. MEH 0910

    February 29, 2020 at 8:01 PM


Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: