Lion of the Blogosphere

Psychological observations

Most people, even most smart people, lack any ability to think independently for themselves. If they see no one else worrying about the virus, that means they don’t worry about the virus, and anyone who appears to be worrying is written off as paranoid, or they are making it up because they are out to get Trump.

Most people lack the ability to think in a non-linear manner. If they see 100 people infected with the virus this week, then they project 100 next week, 100 the week after that, and so on and so on, and conclude that the virus is no big deal. Sucks for 10 people each week who need hospitalization, but a minor health problem compared to even the flu. They don’t understand how epidemics spread in a nonlinear manner, that the number of infected doubles every so many days. If there is a doubling every 5 days, then it only takes 50 days to go from 5000 infected (no big deal) to 5 million infected (a pretty darn big deal) and then only 20 more days to go to 80 million infected. In the absence of action to contain the virus or increase social distancing, epidemiologists say that 40% will become infected before we develop herd immunity.

They don’t understand the importance of looking at the hospitalization rate. With a 10% hospitalization rate, 20 million infected at the same time means that 2 million people need to be hospitalized, but the U.S. has less than 1 million hospital beds, and most of them are already occupied. The U.S. lacks the ability of China to build a new hospital in 10 days. We can’t even manufacture enough face masks.

Hopefully, before everything becomes too dystopian, American leadership will realize how badly they fucked up and finally shut everything down they should have shut down earlier. But given the total failure of government to respond correctly to this virus so far, there’s the possibility that the U.S. could become as dystopian as Iran. Which by the way, the mainstream media is barely reporting on despite the belief of brainless Trump supporters that the media is over-hyping the virus to hurt Trump.

The worst case scenario, which is becoming more likely every day given our dysfunctional government response, would be millions of Americans dead from the virus. And the worst-case scenario is not some pie-in the-sky crazy bullshit estimate, it’s what will definitely happen in the absence of changing our way of life to increase social distancing.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 7, 2020 at 2:43 PM

142 Responses

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  1. So you’re saying it’s looking like school gonna be cancelled for a few weeks at least?

    GondwanaMan

    March 7, 2020 at 2:47 PM

    • All talking about major universities in particular….

      GondwanaMan

      March 7, 2020 at 2:48 PM

    • It should be like Conrad Aiken’s short story about an endless snow day, “Silent Snow, Secret Snow.” A perfect horror tale about mental illness and fantasy.

      That said, I hate work and do want an endless snow day.

      Read em and Reap

      March 7, 2020 at 5:27 PM

    • We need them to be. And the sooner the better.

      JayMan

      March 8, 2020 at 7:28 AM

      • They have closed some universities in Washington State. Or converted them to on line only for the rest of the semester.

        Rosenmops

        March 9, 2020 at 5:18 PM

      • Good, but they need to do more.

        JayMan

        March 9, 2020 at 9:14 PM

  2. Other people, the actually smart people, have been closely following all the data since January and are able to form conclusions independently rather than latch on to a self-promoter of one type or another offering analysis. These smart people have lately come to the conclusion that it really is just a flu. Claims to the contrary involve taking obviously flawed headline data and misinterpreting it.

    bobbybobbob

    March 7, 2020 at 2:53 PM

    • What we really need is a prediction market. Then we could ask people to bet on their beliefs.

      Failing that Trump should announce a program to get people who talk like bobbybobbob to be temporarily employed at hospitals. I’m sure there are a lot of unskilled caregivers there who, though not geniuses, are smart enough to know it’s not the flu. Give them an extended vacation and hire these geniuses at 45$ an hour. It’d be a major pay bump for many of the geniuses.

      Alexander Turok

      March 7, 2020 at 6:22 PM

      • “What we really need is a prediction market. Then we could ask people to bet on their beliefs.”

        You have to wonder why there isn’t already one. Particularly in the case of pundits, we should be able to rate their track record and see if they have a history of being right or off their gourds.

        Mike Street Station

        March 8, 2020 at 9:07 AM

      • Alexander Turok

        March 8, 2020 at 11:45 AM

      • A prediction market was proposed by Robin Hanson back in the Bush administration, but that was during the terrorism hysteria. It was lambasted for “betting on death.” It seemed like a good idea to me, but there was certainly room to criticize it (especially in the realm of terrorism, which I think was its intended purpose — predicting where and when a strike would occur). A prediction market is much better suited for natural disasters and viruses.

        Vince

        March 8, 2020 at 4:43 PM

    • Yep. It really is bizarre to see all this hysteria. It’s like the body snatchers or something.

      Andrew E.

      March 7, 2020 at 10:13 PM

      • I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. We are slamming into obvious energy supply problems that will crash our civilization within my lifetime but hysterics can’t discern the flu from the plague. As the diesel trains & pumps & barges stop over the next 30 years, you’ll laugh at the flu. As the sewage systems cease functioning reliably, you’ll sure wish it was the flu that did you in.

        bobbybobbob

        March 8, 2020 at 1:03 AM

      • @Bobby You’re going to need nuclear power. Start training the engineers now.

        Frau Katze

        March 8, 2020 at 5:28 PM

    • Fool ^

      I don’t mean that as an ad hominem, but as a clinical observation to warn others.

      Maciano

      March 8, 2020 at 3:49 AM

    • Those “smart” people aren’t all that smart then.

      JayMan

      March 8, 2020 at 7:28 AM

      • Cough
        It’s just the flu
        Cough.
        We just need to install city sized humidifiers. One scientist said so, about the flu.
        Cough
        And this is just the flu

        NYC, get a rope

        March 8, 2020 at 9:17 AM

      • Until I see the Millennials and their subsequent weirdo siblings drop like flies from the coronavirus, I’m not convinced that a killer epidemic is on the horizon.

        Ok, what, who's this again?

        March 8, 2020 at 9:26 PM

  3. If you are that concerned, you should leave the City right now for some isolated country house, perhaps in northern Quebec. A small island, again in the north, might be better.

    I actually live in a isolated house in rural Ohio. And I am prepared for most likelihoods.

    bob sykes

    March 7, 2020 at 3:05 PM

    • “The worst case scenario, which is becoming more likely every day given our dysfunctional government response, would be millions of Americans dead from the virus. And the worst-case scenario is not some pie-in the-sky crazy bullshit estimate, it’s what will definitely happen in the absence of changing our way of life to increase social distancing.”

      Now that seems like crazed BS to me.

      Hubei province, where COVID-19 ran rampant for a long time before people figured out what the hell was going on, has 60 million (verified). China as a whole, has 18 gorillion people (estimated).

      Now the weather in Wuhan is 56 degrees Fahrenheit with 87% humidity. That is very great humidity across southeastern China and the virus has been stopped dead in its tracks in the place where it was ubiquitous.

      Only 3000 people have died worldwide from this and spring is just 2 weeks away. When it is all said and done, this may be less deadly than regular flu.

      You can praise social distancing in China all you want but in China people are 10X closer-packed than in America. It takes quite a lot of social distancing in China just to get to the average US social distance. Most people in China have gone back to work, so the social distance thing is over.

      The real reasons for the improvement in China are:
      (1) The virus already blew through and they are past the peak, or
      (2) Very humid weather is stopping the virus.

      Elon Musk@elonmusk
      Mar 6
      The coronavirus panic is dumb

      Dan Hess

      March 7, 2020 at 7:43 PM

    • Not a bad idea if you can do it.

      JayMan

      March 8, 2020 at 7:28 AM

    • “If you are that concerned, you should leave the City right now for some isolated country house, perhaps in northern Quebec. A small island, again in the north, might be better.”

      Just an observation, but just like with global warming, the people who are bleating the loudest that we’re all going to die still live as if nothing is going to happen. So if you actually think COVID-19 is the next Black Death or Zombie Apocalypse, shouldn’t these people have already moved into their underground shelters or self quarantined?

      Mike Street Station

      March 8, 2020 at 9:11 AM

  4. So you think Republicans are more in denial than Democrats?

    Rosenmops

    March 7, 2020 at 3:11 PM

  5. “The U.S. lacks the ability of China to build a new hospital in 10 days.”

    Well that’s true. But at least this doesn’t usually happen here:

    “A five-story hotel that was reportedly being used as a temporary Covid-19 quarantine site has collapsed in the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian on Saturday, state media reports.”

    Eventually, of course, as America becomes ever more Chinese and 3rd world in general, we will see these kinds of things. There was already that bridge in Miami or wherever that was. I wonder how much corner cutting goes on in the huge amounts of Chinese construction going on all over NYC?

    Nice collapsed hotel pictures here:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/dozens-trapped-after-chinese-hotel-used-coronavirus-quarantine-site-collapses

    “despite the belief of brainless Trump supporters that the media is over-hyping the virus to hurt Trump.”

    Both things can be true. The problem could be bad and the media can still be over-hyping it to hurt Trump. The report EVERYTHING in the way that most hurts Trump, so why on earth should this be any different?

    peterike

    March 7, 2020 at 3:13 PM

    • In New Orleans, the Hard Rock Hotel collapsed while it was still under construction. Didn’t even have the excuse of being old and dilapidated.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 7, 2020 at 5:14 PM

      • New Orleans is already about 20% third world. I know – I live here.

        Two in the Bush

        March 7, 2020 at 5:21 PM

      • I went to a themed Halloween party years ago. The theme was Third World Beach Party.
        We went as Cajuns.

        Alice

        March 8, 2020 at 6:17 PM

  6. What about the 2020 elections. How to manage it? People have to go to the polling staions.

    תמריץ

    March 7, 2020 at 3:16 PM

    • By then, almost everyone will have already been exposed, so all those voters will already be immune, sick, or dead.

      Hermes

      March 8, 2020 at 9:24 AM

      • I don’t think we’ll be done with the outbreak by then.

        JayMan

        March 8, 2020 at 11:10 AM

    • No they don’t. Plenty mail in their ballots now.

      Mrs Stitch

      March 9, 2020 at 9:56 AM

  7. Dems: overhype everything to hurt Trump.
    Trump: understates everything to protect the economy and his reelection chances.

    we’re doomed

    Brendan

    March 7, 2020 at 3:50 PM

    • Well, Mr. Market is speaking now.

      And Mr. Market doesn’t lie!

      Mrs Stitch

      March 9, 2020 at 9:57 AM

    • On reddit front page there were two ironically juxtaposed threads- one lambasting trump for his poor response to the virus, the other condemning people for avoiding asian eateries out of ‘irrational fear.’

      Costco staten island report: crowded but not mobbed. However, the toilet paper aisle was impassable.

      toomanymice

      March 9, 2020 at 2:26 PM

  8. The worst case scenario, which is becoming more likely every day given our dysfunctional government response, would be millions of Americans dead from the virus.

    Would this scenario decrease demand for housing and, in turn, lead to another crash in the residential real estate market? Would this scenario create job opportunities and promotions for healthy millennials? Would millions of American deaths create a need (real or fabricated) for more immigration?

    Deplorable Prole

    March 7, 2020 at 4:02 PM

  9. Both Americans and Canadians have been awfully slow to get moving. At least Trump banned flights from China. Trudeau has yet to do that.

    Frau Katze

    March 7, 2020 at 4:50 PM

    • He raised the drawbridge after sickies from Asia and Europe already got in, so …..

      Brendan

      March 7, 2020 at 5:38 PM

    • Doesn’t Trudeau need to pick out the right Chinese costume first to make the announcement?

      Mike Street Station

      March 8, 2020 at 9:17 AM

      • I don’t know. But Trudeau says and does silly things and it can’t blamed on age (like Joe Biden).

        Frau Katze

        March 8, 2020 at 5:26 PM

  10. Lion,

    The problem is that your analysis is based on a narrow understanding of the threat matrix. Sure, logically, a pandemic is certainly something that should put aside all petty differences, with all hands on deck cooperating together to get this under control. After all, viruses don’t discriminate. They kill everyone, of every race, creed or color. We should all work together to get this under control, right?

    Well, that’s not the world we live in. We live in a world where a major American political party believes in “never letting a crisis go to waste.” The worst possible misstep to take is doing what Lion suggests: shutting down the country until all carriers are identified and isolated. That is simply not doable.

    If you did do something like this, you will vastly increase the ways people will die, well beyond simply getting a virus. People are not prepped to stay at home for long periods of time. There is not enough food or water for them to do that. The longer such isolation and quarantine occurs, the greater the risk of starvation and dehydration. It also means public utilities go out as workers bunker at home instead of coming to work. Then you have panics as hungry people break quarantine to buy at the store. Then what? Martial law? Shooting people in the streets? Based on grainy Chinese and Iranian viral videos? C’mon. Trump isn’t going to fall for that.

    Imagine if New York City implemented these measures. You guys would be killing each other inside of month. It would be like a massive cold snap wiping out all of the hobos.

    I am not arguing that there should be no response. I just don’t see what more you can do. This thing has no vaccine. Once your test discovers it, anyone within the radius of the patient is infected.

    map

    March 7, 2020 at 4:58 PM

    • “We live in a world where a major American political party believes in “never letting a crisis go to waste.””

      That’s not restricted to one political party in the U.S., that’s all power-hungry sociopaths.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 7, 2020 at 5:18 PM

      • Well…true…but sociopathy is like quality: Just like some are more equal than others, some are more sociopathic than others.

        map

        March 7, 2020 at 5:46 PM

    • “The worst possible misstep to take is doing what Lion suggests: shutting down the country until all carriers are identified and isolated. That is simply not doable.”

      That’s what the Chinese are doing. I don’t know else what to suggest. Our current society has no built in way to respond to a pandemic. It been too long since the last one in 1918 (and people were distracted by WW 1 and its aftermath).

      We knew this was possible but we never actually planned for it.

      Frau Katze

      March 8, 2020 at 5:39 PM

    • Don’t people have tap water?? We have great tap water here in montana.

      Mrs Stitch

      March 9, 2020 at 9:59 AM

  11. Just last night I was talking
    to an old friend of mine who has this conspiracy theory. He is an english speaking Americanized Hispanic. He asked me about my politics and then told me he is a hardcore Republican. I was surprised because the last time I talked to him was after the 2012 election and he voted for Obama and was a low information Democrat. He didn’t pay attention to politics, today he closely follows every Republican talking point. He then told me he is sure the virus was made by Democrats so that Trump wouldn’t be re-elected.

    Anybody who has that conspiracy theory forgets the world is a lot bigger than the U.S or U.S politics.

    Jay Fink

    March 7, 2020 at 5:08 PM

    • Yeah…but it is easy to see why people have these conspiracy theories. You’ve just had the Senate minority leader threaten two of Trump’s Supreme Court appointments along with same threatening him three years ago.

      map

      March 7, 2020 at 5:55 PM

    • Your old friend doesn’t sound very smart.

      GondwanaMan

      March 7, 2020 at 7:09 PM

  12. You are catastrophizing. You have bought into the media induced panic, and refuse to check your own emotions.
    You ignore any data that counters the panic and run with anything that reinforces your feeling of impending doom.
    LOOK AT SINGAPORE. No deaths yet. Definitely not spiraling out of control.
    The virus has been circulating since November, and there are about 3500 deaths attributed to it, mostly in China.
    Those are not catastrophic numbers.
    Stop panicking. Follow all reasonable precautions and avoid large gatherings.
    That is literally all you can do.

    DaveNYC

    March 7, 2020 at 5:52 PM

    • Some people understand exponential growth while others…

      The pandemic is useful for one thing: it’s great for knowing who not to take seriously in general.

      JayMan

      March 8, 2020 at 11:12 AM

      • Linear vs. exponential growth in cases of diabetic 84 year olds with bum lungs checking out really doesn’t matter. Maybe this is what you don’t understand.

        bobbybobbob

        March 8, 2020 at 2:48 PM

      • You are not an epidemiologist, just another anonymous blogger, and you have nothing interesting to share other than your own fear and arrogance.
        Then again, I never took anything you said seriously anyway, so there is that.

        DaveNYC

        March 8, 2020 at 4:39 PM

      • Elon Musk came out against the Coronavirus being a big deal. I wonder what that says about him?

        GondwanaMan

        March 8, 2020 at 5:38 PM

      • Even he is not as smart as he looks?

        JayMan

        March 8, 2020 at 6:41 PM

      • “The pandemic is useful for one thing: it’s great for knowing who not to take seriously in general.”

        Love your blog, Jayman, and maybe things will be as bad as you think they’ll be, but I don’t expect this tweet to age well:

        Horace Pinker

        March 8, 2020 at 8:41 PM

      • I’ll be the first to party if it doesn’t. But I see a lot of denial and wishful thinking that I’m afraid isn’t really going to help.

        JayMan

        March 9, 2020 at 8:41 AM

      • Elon Musk knows that if worst comes to worst, he can hide in that ugly armored truck he built. Or put it in stealth mode and fly into Russian airspace. It sure looks like it can do that.

        Lowe

        March 8, 2020 at 9:10 PM

    • Singapore is city state on the equator (just in case weather is a factor) with a well-disciplined population. It’s actually not ethnically homogenous although the Chinese are a majority.

      Points of similarity with our society: not very many. This is a place where it’s illegal to chew gum.

      I personally am staying in but that’s not hard to do since I’m retired. I’m in the over 65 demographic with no known co-morbidities. At least not right now.

      Frau Katze

      March 8, 2020 at 5:48 PM

      • I personally am staying in but that’s not hard to do since I’m retired. I’m in the over 65 demographic with no known co-morbidities.

        Weird comment, every other over-65 healthy seniorette I know is busy gallivanting all over the globe.

        S.J., Esquire

        March 9, 2020 at 7:38 AM

      • I believe Frau has mobility issues pertaining to her sense of balance.

        toomanymice

        March 9, 2020 at 2:32 PM

  13. An independent thinker (IT), I suppose, would be a guy who used hookers several times a month for ten years, usually without condoms, starting around 1984, deciding that female > male sexual transmission was highly unlikely, during the period when CDC and other health authorities consistently proclaimed that HIV ‘doesn’t discriminate’ and that ‘everyone is at risk’ That guy, who never contracted HIV or even any of the more common STD’s and knew that Magic Johnson must have been switch-hitting, was officially vindicated around 1996 when doctors finally began admitting that you’ll be fine as long as you’re playing with girls, not boys. If CDC, much diversitized since ‘96, would only push the panic button now, that IT would know what to think.

    Marty

    March 7, 2020 at 6:22 PM

    • Marty you must think that all guys in Africa are gays.

      תמריץ

      March 8, 2020 at 2:02 PM

      • Maybe not gays, but I bet a ton of them are drug users who share needles.

        Lowe

        March 8, 2020 at 5:55 PM

      • I grew up in a majority black city attending majority black schools. And the thing that stands out to me the most is not so much the promiscuity as the polygamy. Blacks are much, much more likely to have multiple long-term partners. Whereas other races tend to be monogamous or at least serially monogamous, black men and women both tend to have several partners they continue to see over an extended period of time. So while they may not have that many more partners over a given period of time, they’re seeing them all concurrently. Which is going to spread STD’s a lot faster.

        There’s actually a theory that the tendency towards monogamy evolved in response to STDs. I would say this is particularly important in a society that is agricultural than hunter-gatherer. Because agriculture can support much larger populations. In other words, more people means more diseases getting spread around. But Africans have not been agricultural long enough to evolve monogamy. I guess they’re evolving it now, aren’t they!

        destructure

        March 9, 2020 at 2:19 AM

  14. Good: Murkaprolestan becomes Apocalyptica. The end of status and race relations as we know it.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    March 7, 2020 at 7:34 PM

  15. “If there is a doubling every 5 days, then it only takes 50 days to go from 5000 infected (no big deal) to 5 million infected (a pretty darn big deal) and then only 20 more days to go to 80 million infected.”
    That’s not how it works though. Infections spread rapidly in the early days because one infected person meets lots of non-infected people, and no one is taking precautions (not even basic precautions like washing their hands). As it grows, it’s much harder for infected to meet non-infected, and people will naturally start being more cautious.

    ack-acking

    March 7, 2020 at 8:27 PM

  16. Lowe

    March 7, 2020 at 8:33 PM

  17. It’s a good time to be Sentinelese.

    Hermes

    March 7, 2020 at 10:21 PM

  18. Today I heard on the news that 19 people are now dead in the US. 19!!!! And half of them are from that nursing home in Seattle. This is crazy. Every new case is treated as earth-shattering news.

    I subscribe to the cold-weather flu-like explanation. It fits the facts. Doesn’t that count for something? Even in China, southern China is not affected much, according to my Chinese co-worker.

    My sister lives in Argentina, and she says that’s what people down there believe. Nobody has it yet, but they are preparing for the winter (our summer).

    Amused Observer

    March 7, 2020 at 10:43 PM

    • If the actual death rate is 0.6% and 40% of the US population gets the virus, that would be 750,000+ deaths. It would also mean millions of Americans would be hospitalized in serious condition totally overwhelming the health care system. We will not have enough ICU hospital beds to teat everyone. Some will have to be left untreated, making the death rate higher.

      MikeCA

      March 9, 2020 at 1:47 PM

    • If lion is truly passionate about preserving human life he should obsessively post about vehicular safety and suicide prevention. Many avoidable deaths in those groups. And both inordinately impact men.

      toomanymice

      March 9, 2020 at 3:00 PM

      • We are seeing in Italy what happens when when the virus gets out of control. Italy went from 600 cases 2 weeks ago to ~10,000 today. Hospitals are overwhelmed and the health care system in Northern Italy is on the verge of collapse. This has forced Italy to lock down the whole country to try to slow the spread.

        The US has around 600 cases now. If the US cannot halt the exponential growth of cases around the Washington, Bay Area, New York and Florida hot spots we may have to start thinking about drastic measures in the US too.

        It is already effecting the economy. Airlines, hotels and restaurants are obviously going to be hit hard by reduced travel and canceled conventions. Oil prices are tumbling because the producers know there is a world wide recession coming that will reduce demand. If the US is forced to take drastic measures similar to Italy, it will cause a big hit on the US economy

        The good news is the South Korea seems to be getting it under control without the drastic measures used in China or Italy. Of course South Korea has tested well over 100,000 people and has drive through test sites where anyone can be tested. The estimate for the US is ~5000 tests. Pence keeps talking about test kits being available for 100,000 and for millions of tests in a week or something, but the labs around the US are just ramping up now.

        Auto accidents and suicides just don’t have the same impact on the economy. I think Lion is obsessing about this because of its economic impact.

        MikeCA

        March 9, 2020 at 8:39 PM

  19. “Most people, even most smart people, lack any ability to think independently for themselves. If they see no one else worrying about the virus, that means they don’t worry about the virus, and anyone who appears to be worrying is written off as paranoid, or they are making it up because they are out to get Trump.”

    Your comment may be true about people in general. But you’re not making it in response to people in general but people who read your blog. More specifically, you’re making it about people who don’t agree with you (and the msm). It must not have occurred to you that, from a purely logical standpoint, those who agree with you (and the msm) are actually less likely to be independent thinkers than those who disagree. In fact, I’ve noticed who is agreeing and disagreeing. And, without exception, those who are most worried about this are the very people I’ve long thought of as “followers”.

    destructure

    March 7, 2020 at 11:57 PM

  20. “The worst case scenario, which is becoming more likely every day given our dysfunctional government response, would be millions of Americans dead from the virus.”

    Even the worst case scenario isn’t that bad. Think about it. Nearly 3M Americans die every year. And most of them are elderly people with serious health problems. And who is at most risk from wu flu? Elderly people with serious health problems. So if wu flu turns into a pandemic that kills 3M people then most of them wouldn’t have been long for this world anyway. And if it kills twice that many then it will still be killing mostly elderly people with serious health problems who had passed their expiration date.

    Now, before someone loses their shit caterwauling about how I don’t care whether people lose their grammy, realize that if grammy kicks the bucket because of wu flu then she probably wasn’t far from kicking the bucket anyway. People don’t want to think, say or hear things like that because it’s socially unacceptable and hurtful. But it’s still true. And I don’t mind thinking, saying or hearing it. Do you know why? Because I’m an independent thinker. ಠ_ಠ

    destructure

    March 8, 2020 at 12:20 AM

    • Some people don’t want their parents and grandparents to die. And to think some people have the nerve to call ME aspergery.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 8, 2020 at 8:52 AM

      • What you want is irrelevant. They’re going to die either way, you ass burger.

        destructure

        March 8, 2020 at 12:46 PM

    • The issue is less the mortality as much as it is the strain on the healthcare system. The US only has around 1 million hospital beds and 62 thousand mechanical ventilators in the entire country. If the number of critical patients continues exponentially the US will be out of beds by mid-May (and ventilators by mid-April). Then what happens? Mortality will certainly rise significantly after that, not to mention the negative effects on all the other non-covidian 19 patients.

      Interesting analysis from two years ago on the lack of ventilator capacity to deal with a pandemic here:

      Click to access Clade-X-ventilator-availability-fact-sheet.pdf

      Peter Akuleyev

      March 8, 2020 at 4:05 PM

      • Are we seeing exponential increases in the USA? I don’t know the answer to that.

        Alice

        March 8, 2020 at 6:28 PM

      • A little supplemental oxygen helps some olds pull through, and that could totally be administered at home in the case beds are overwhelmed. Worrying about ventilators for this is a bit ridiculous.

        Adapt normal procedures a bit for more amateur home care (here’s a tank and mask, here’s how to set the regulator), do a bit of triage, and no big problem. The can-do American spirit trumps the chicken-littles.

        bobbybobbob

        March 8, 2020 at 7:11 PM

      • Peter Akuleyev — I made a similar comment over a week ago.

        https://lionoftheblogosphere.wordpress.com/2020/02/29/i-told-you-so-again/#comment-252266

        destructure

        March 9, 2020 at 12:02 AM

  21. It seems rather unlikely that the Italian government is part of a conspiracy to undermine Trump. In fact in Italy the positions are reversed – Salvini, the right wing nationalist – has been hyping the disease and calling for restrictive measures in order to undermine the government. The left wing in Italy are the ones downplaying the threat. The general rule everywhere seems to be that the ruling parties are trying to avoid blame and the opposition parties are trying to hurt the rulers. Makes it hard to figure out what is really going on.

    Also interesting that Russia is so far untouched. Could be that the travel bans actually were effective there. Maybe the fact that sanctions have somewhat unplugged Russia from the global economy turned out to be a good thing.

    Peter Akuleyev

    March 8, 2020 at 1:00 AM

    • It’s not that the Italian government is part of a conspiracy. It’s just that it is much easier managing a narrative from afar. You are not getting information directly from the Italian media. You’re getting it through the controlled, Deep State media about what is going on in Italy.

      map

      March 8, 2020 at 1:55 PM

    • The Black Death and Spanish Flu didn’t effect Russia either. Russia’s difficult geography and cold climate traps pandemics in the ice cold until they dissolve later. Transmission via trade routes was also impossible due to Russia being an isolated far northern country. Pandemics devastated other places and peoples but Russia has been mostly immune.

      redarmyvodka

      March 10, 2020 at 1:59 AM

      • Also, Russia doesn’t try to attract tourists, the opposite of Italy.

        Frau Katze

        March 10, 2020 at 9:37 PM

  22. Super-strong chix aren’t always hott in the conventional sense, but that certainly doesn’t mean that you wouldn’t want to Do the Dirty Deed with them.

    Peter

    ironrailsironweights

    March 8, 2020 at 3:09 AM

    • Sorry, I would not want to do “the Dirty Deed” with her.

      Mike Street Station

      March 8, 2020 at 9:23 AM

      • Yeah dude that was super gross, WTF!

        S.J., Esquire

        March 8, 2020 at 10:59 AM

    • The question is not whether you’d do the deed w/ her. The question is, would you survive the experience, if you did.

      Lowe

      March 8, 2020 at 11:14 AM

      • Imagine if you were orally pleasuring her, and she squeezed her thighs together in delight. Death by suffocation.

        Peter

        ironrailsironweights

        March 8, 2020 at 4:21 PM

      • I imagine it all the time now.

        Lowe

        March 8, 2020 at 9:15 PM

      • Heh, awesome lowe

        driveallnight

        March 9, 2020 at 11:44 AM

    • With all the gender-bending today, we should have an index that tracks femininity with athletic achievement.

      bomag

      March 8, 2020 at 2:01 PM

  23. Remember the worldwide flu vaccine shortage on ’04-’05.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=flu+vaccine+shortage+2004&rlz=1CANQDY_enUS807US807&oq=flu+vaccine+shortage&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l7.9572j1j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    According to Harvard Medical School, there is no vaccine or anti-viral treatment currently available for COVID-19.

    https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-spreads-many-questions-and-some-answers-2020022719004#q11

    I’d encourage readers to get the Hepatitis A & B vaccination and, for those over 50 y/o, the Shingrix shingles vaccination. Hepatitis vaccinations are often offered free of charge at county health departments. My insurance covered mine at the local pharmacy – two does of the combined Hep A+B vaccination. I got the three-dose Shingrix vaccination as well, not covered by insurance, at a cost of $120 for the first dose and no charge for doses 2 and 3 (but I think there was supposed to be).

    E. Rekshun

    March 8, 2020 at 5:20 AM

  24. This site has some useful stats about the spread of Corona virus around the world:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0He0sk4WjlRGF-e8XlsSkmRoO9A15x-irGhKWCIAr9FLGogPXIgobo_Rs#countries

    prolier than thou

    March 8, 2020 at 5:39 AM

  25. Perfectly said.

    JayMan

    March 8, 2020 at 7:27 AM

    • another pants shitter

      driveallnight

      March 8, 2020 at 11:04 AM

  26. “would be millions of Americans dead from the virus.”
    But if the virus disproportionately affects cities, then it will decrease the proportion of blue voters greater than red voters.

    chris

    March 8, 2020 at 8:30 AM

    • The virus disproportionately affects the old, who are Trump’s biggest supporters.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 8, 2020 at 8:56 AM

      • if the virus disproportionately kills elderly Trump voters in blue states, it may not matter that much for Trump’s electoral vote totals. To be perfectly cynical.

        Peter Akuleyev

        March 8, 2020 at 3:54 PM

  27. The elderly in nursing homes and retirement communities will suffer large mortality percentagewise. Retired persons with private residences will stay safely at home through the epidemic that will roll through the USA at increasing speed (absent a save from warmer weather). Medical care facilities will be overwhelmed with severe cases aged 35-60; therefore many deaths of those not able to get ICU treatment will occur in this age range. Mass quarantines and lockdowns will be imposed too haphazardly to prevent high rates of infection in the USA.

    The US economy will contract. Stock index technical condition was ominous prior to the epidemic, with the moonshot rally of January appearing to be a buying climax. Stock prices would have started down this spring without the pandemic. The week of March 9 will see a brief rise in the indicies to carry out a technically expected test of a particular level, and then sell off sharply. Six months on, the Lion will have been proven correct.

    Bert

    March 8, 2020 at 8:31 AM

  28. The real reasons for the improvement in China are:
(1) The virus already blew through and they are past the peak

    How about reading about what China actually did to curb the virus:

    https://twitter.com/xihonglin/status/1236664963198005253?s=21

    Jesus…

    JayMan

    March 8, 2020 at 11:04 AM

  29. I wonder if this will this have any affect on blacks’ support for Biden. Or has Jesse Jackson become irrelevant?

    Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, 03/08/20 – Rev. Jesse Jackson endorses Bernie Sanders for president

    https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nationworld/ct-jesse-jackson-endorses-bernie-sanders-president-20200308-wf24evuvzrhx3fdqhaaqiykfye-story.html

    A day after Bernie Sanders rallied supporters in Chicago, the Rev. Jesse Jackson endorsed the Vermont senator’s bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination, his campaign announced.

    Jackson’s endorsement came shortly after California Sen. Kamala Harris endorsed Sanders’ chief opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden…

    E. Rekshun

    March 8, 2020 at 1:17 PM

  30. If people really believed this was the zombie apocalypse then there’s a way to quickly nip this in the bud. Young people are at very low risk. Just start taking healthy people under 40 to FEMA camps and infect them. Quarantine them for a couple of weeks until they test negative then turn them loose. That will result in large scale herd immunity in a very short time and stop the spread. Which would protect most of the older people. Would any of you support that plan? Of course not. Because none of you really believes it’s the zombie apocalypse.

    destructure

    March 8, 2020 at 1:24 PM

    • Firstoff, one could make the same dumb argument about nuclear holocaust during the cold war. Few people prepared for it. Few people took the time to acquire a Geiger counter let alone make more expensive preparations. All this means is people are bad at judging abstract risks. They instead use them to signal, as you are using it to signal loyalty to the Bozo in chief.

      https://alexanderturok.wordpress.com/2020/02/01/dont-use-corona-to-signal/

      Secondly, ideas like that have been floated:

      http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/02/consider-controlled-infection.html

      Alexander Turok

      March 8, 2020 at 3:07 PM

      • On the contrary there is a human psychological inclination toward negativity despite all the evidence to the contrary. Yes pandemics existed in the past and they did immense damage but those occurred during periods of war, chaos, upheaval, and collapse. That is NOT occurring and governments today are better prepared both domestically and internationally. Until I see wealthy people changing their lifestyles I’ll assume it’s another scam used on plebs/proles like the “climate crisis” and Lion is another useful idiot. Even during the Cold War people were easily duped despite the fact America/Russia had diplomatic relations and even conducted international trade. The presidents were usually correct about the major issues past and present.

        This virus and the hype associated with it is definitely being used as a political weapon first against the enemies of ZOG/USG and then against Trump.

        redarmyvodka

        March 8, 2020 at 8:10 PM

      • For a great number of people, there was no way to prepare for their city being bombed, then at some point, it was debatable whether humanity could survive total nuclear war.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        March 9, 2020 at 2:34 AM

      • Firstoff, lots of people made preparations. The cold war spawned an entire survivalist movement that’s still going strong today.

        Secondly, that’s a pretty good idea which is why I came up with it! I may not have been the first. But I didn’t get it from anyone else. Also, it may not have occurred to you but the fact that other people have floated the possibility without it catching on actually supports my position that those throwing a fit aren’t serious.

        destructure

        March 9, 2020 at 3:05 PM

      • @Redarmyvodka

        “Yes pandemics existed in the past and they did immense damage but those occurred during periods of war, chaos, upheaval, and collapse.”

        Spanish flu. Yes, it occurred while some of the world was at war but killed a lot of people in neutral countries as well.(thus the name)

        “Until I see wealthy people changing their lifestyles I’ll assume it’s another scam used on plebs/proles like the “climate crisis” and Lion is another useful idiot”

        Can you give a specific example of what kind of lifestyle change you are talking about? Conferences have been canceled. International travel bans have been put in place in many different countries. Amazon has asked its Seattle workforce to work from home. Several schools in the Seattle area have shut down. Retailers are reporting shortages of toilet paper, hand sanitizer, rice, etc. If those aren’t enough, what is?

        “Even during the Cold War people were easily duped despite the fact America/Russia had diplomatic relations and even conducted international trade.”

        It’s not like we have historical examples of countries which traded with each other going to war…

        Alexander Turok

        March 9, 2020 at 10:27 PM

    • You don’t know what the consequence will be of the virus longer term.

      Viruses linger around in the body and can cause chronic illnesses and cancer.

      I would be in favour of infecting you with a good Italian version of covid19.

      Maciano

      March 9, 2020 at 8:03 AM

    • “If people really believed this was the zombie apocalypse …”

      It’s not the zombie apocalypse but it’s not the flu either. In my opinion it could have been kept largely out of the US with a competent government response. Which we didn’t get. Probably too late now. I find the whole thing annoying to say the least.

      James B. Shearer

      March 9, 2020 at 8:56 PM

      • It certainly isn’t the flu, thank God. So far this season, 26 million in the US have caught the flu and 14,000 have died. Per CNN.

        Andrew E.

        March 9, 2020 at 9:35 PM

  31. Vox Day lives in Italy and he is in the quarantine zone. This is what he writes.

    https://voxday.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-big-shutdown.html

    Definite le nuove misure nazionali di contenimento dell’emergenza. Nell’articolo 1 della bozza del nuovo decreto del governo compare il divieto di ingresso e di uscita dalla Lombardia e da altre 11 province, e l’estensione delle zone controllate a Piemonte ed Emilia-Romagna. Nel dettaglio, le province diventate “zona rossa” sono le seguenti: Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro e Urbino, Venezia, Padova, Treviso, Asti e Alessandria. Tutte le nuove disposizioni sono valide da oggi marzo fino al 3 aprile.

    No travel into or out of Lombardia and a number of other provinces until April third, which is a quarantine of 16 million people. Good thing we’ve got the wine cellar well-stocked through September, at the very least! Seems like a bit of an overreaction to me, but we’ll see. In the meantime, I anticipate most Italians will consider this to be a grand holiday of sorts.

    And no, I’m not particularly concerned despite the drastic measures being taken. The country with the largest known test sample, South Korea, is seeing a mortality rate of 0.6 percent, which is only four times more lethal than the average flu. And while the 4 percent death rate based on the official numbers in Italy looks bad, the fact is that most people who have been infected don’t know they have it and have not been counted as an official case.

    I strongly suspect something that we simply don’t understand is taking place, and that we’ll eventually be able to put the pieces of the puzzle together. In the meantime, get plenty of sleep, drink plenty of fluids, and take vitamins C and D.

    Besides, it’s still not a pandemic, right?

    UPDATE: While the government has announced the quarantine of Lombardia as well as parts of the Veneto, Emilia Romagna, and Piemonte, they aren’t shutting down the roads or the airports yet. They haven’t even closed the borders with France or Switzerland at this point.

    map

    March 8, 2020 at 1:59 PM

    • “And while the 4 percent death rate based on the official numbers in Italy looks bad, the fact is that most people who have been infected don’t know they have it and have not been counted as an official case.”

      Consider: more than half of the people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship who tested positive had no symptoms, meaning that if they hadn’t been on the ship, where everyone was tested, they never would have known they had it.

      Peter

      ironrailsironweights

      March 8, 2020 at 7:13 PM

  32. If Tulsi Gabbard ran as third party, it would be very good for Trump.

    Bruno

    March 8, 2020 at 2:04 PM

  33. The virus is not a big story. If the life of Biden, Sanders, Trump or Ruth Bader Ginsburg are at risk, then it is a big story.

    תמריץ

    March 8, 2020 at 2:06 PM

  34. Here’s something for Peter, a woman firing 25 straight shots of .30-06 from an ’03 Springfield with a steel butt-plate. Go to 1:01:20.

    CamelCaseRob

    March 8, 2020 at 3:54 PM

    • Mae is a firearms professional who’s probably shot more rounds than 99,999% of the population.
      Othais her co-host is something vanishingly rare, a hipster firearms pro. Ian of Forgotten Weapons is more of a hippie rather than a hipster.

      Peter

      ironrailsironweights

      March 8, 2020 at 4:49 PM

      • Speaking of chix and guns, our favorite girl shooter Katharina Vikor bags a blesbok antelope in South Africa:

        Peter

        ironrailsironweights

        March 8, 2020 at 5:38 PM

      • “who’s probably shot more rounds than 99,999% of the population.”

        And every time she discharges the cartridge her breasts wobble. Is that why you watch these videos?

        Curle

        March 9, 2020 at 8:39 PM

    • 30-06. The one to have when you can have only one.

      PS: He sounds like Kermit the Frog.

      destructure

      March 10, 2020 at 2:46 AM

  35. OT:

    You should review this music video, it’s one of the best music videos in the past 10 years:

    jjbees

    March 8, 2020 at 8:17 PM

  36. Lion, besides selling your stocks, what are you personally doing to prepare?

    Jurajda

    March 8, 2020 at 10:18 PM

    • He’s staying in NYC. Staying in densely packed confined high-rises that use recirculated air. He’s not staying home either. What do we learn from this?

      He hasn’t said a word about a concerted effort to call for a national sick-day policy. One that has teeth. No one can fire you if you stay home sick. No defectors. If you have employees and you’re losing money because they need to stay home, too bad. Call your insurance company and try to collect on that bogus business-loss policy you bought from them, that they’ll never honor.

      I don’t see anyone with a megaphone using this crisis for anything other that financial gain and financial loss prevention. You’ll need to reassure people that they won’t lose everything before threatening to quarantine them.

      Canned food futures are up today. Lol. This is what the rich are concerned about.

      Wu Hu Flu

      March 9, 2020 at 2:02 PM

  37. futures markets are getting absolutely hammered right now. combination of corona-chan, oil wars, and north korean missiles. Expect stock markets to open way down again. I wonder if we’ll get another emergency fed rate cut before the regular meeting?

    ack-acking

    March 8, 2020 at 10:51 PM

    • Canned food futures are up today!

      Wu Hu Flu

      March 9, 2020 at 2:06 PM

      • MEH 0910

        March 9, 2020 at 4:33 PM

    • The Fed is out of ammo, what are they gonna cut to ? -1% ? distribute money to people so they would buy stocks and other crap ? The last cut did not do much and cutting to 0% won’t help that much either. Most likely, a brutal recession ahead coupled with a significant dollar devaluation.

      Goodstuff

      March 9, 2020 at 2:18 PM

  38. HBD observation: This old article about the western side of the Hudson Valley coming from a HBD viewpoint.

    https://www.lohud.com/story/news/politics/politics-on-the-hudson/2014/06/19/newburgh-mayor-poorer-catskills/10881663/

    The western side of the Hudson Valley sucks, because it’s mostly populated by NAMs and proles (Chassids and your usual run in the mill prole).

    The Mayor of Newburgh said his city is worse off than the Catskills. Well yeah, Newburgh has a huge NAM population and a much smaller prole demographic, while the Catskill region is just the inverse of it.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    March 9, 2020 at 1:29 AM

  39. Mr. Cotton who has self quarantined himself from the corona menace, because he tested positive after overseeing one of the filthiest bus stations out there, which is near Times Square that serves commuters from the poorest regions of the Hudson Valley. This makes a lotta a lotta sense.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    March 9, 2020 at 1:31 PM

  40. Lion will enjoy this although it is not related to this post:

    GrassMudHorse

    March 9, 2020 at 2:05 PM

  41. My parents still don’t get it. They’re trying to make me get on a plane in a high risk area. The flight’s already been booked, so we HAVE to go they say. I tried explaining exponential growth and other concepts to them, but it fell on deaf ears. They even got angry at me for being a smartass.

    I think I’ll just have to put my foot down and accept the consequences.

    Alex

    March 9, 2020 at 3:25 PM

  42. This is my rant.

    Covid19 started in China back in November. The chicomms covered it up while it got out of control. They then imposed draconian measures trying to get it under control. Which, apparently, they still haven’t done in spite of claims to the contrary. In the meantime, they’ve engaged in a disinformation campaign to hide the extent of the on-going outbreak. They’ve also pressured the media in other countries to deflect criticism by pushing nonsense about “anti-chinese prejudice”. They should publicly criticized for their shenanigans and they know it. Even people in china are criticizing their government’s coverup.

    Now, you can’t blame anyone (including China) for not be prepared for an outbreak. No one can really prepare for that kind of thing until it happens. Then everyone is scrambling to play catch-up. That’s why I’m so angry about them hiding this. They wasted weeks if not months hiding information from their own people as well as the world. They squandered precious time which could have been spent gearing up to tackle this.

    Regardless, other countries have known this was more seriousness than they were saying since about mid January. For the first 3 or 4 weeks, it was greatly underreported by the msm. And for the past 3 weeks, it’s been greatly exaggerated by that same msm. So other countries have had about 6 weeks to deal with this. During that time, Trump clamped down on travel from China over the objections of the Dems. I strongly support that move and think it should be expanded to more countries.

    At this point, I think travel bans need to be expanded. Not only internationally but internally as well. Not only do affected people need to be placed under quarantine but so do affected cities and regions. I would even go so far as to put some areas under curfew. People should not be going to religious services, schools, concerts, sports events, theaters, nightclubs, etc spreading this virus. But, in order to do this, they need to have mass testing and social distance policies. And, so far, testing still isn’t happening. They’ve had 6 weeks to get it together and still haven’t.

    Now, I haven’t changed my opinion on this. I still think this is just a cold. It may be a very bad and potentially fatal cold for elderly people with health problems. But this is not the plague. On the one hand, you’ve got people exaggerating and sensationalizing this for political reasons as well as some people just being naturally hysterical. On the other hand, you have people minimizing this for political and economic reasons as well as to cover up inaction. And therein lies the problem. This isn’t a problem if action is taken. But it could be a very big problem if action isn’t taken to slow down the spread and healthcare systems get overwhelmed. I view it not unlike any other sanitation issue. Disease isn’t a problem as long as the wastewater treatment plants are operating. But if they go offline then you’ve got a big problem.

    Like I said, no one is ever prepared for an outbreak. And it takes time to mobilize a response. So I have been keeping my powder dry about criticizing what’s being done. After all, you have to give people time to get it together. The problem is that the CDC has had plenty of time to get it together and hasn’t. That’s the CDC’s fault. But, at some point, it stops being the CDC’s fault and starts being the president’s fault. Not because he knows how to run the CDC but because he’s ultimately responsible for hiring and firing the people who do. If the people running the CDC can’t get it together then he needs to replace them with people who can. That should have already happened.

    Don’t get me wrong. I’m not turning on Trump. But I’m definitely tired of hearing excuses. I don’t want excuses. I want testing. And I want it this week. If millions of people aren’t tested this week along with strong policies to stop the spread in infected areas then I won’t be so patient and understanding next week.

    destructure

    March 9, 2020 at 3:31 PM


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