Lion of the Blogosphere

The correct way to enforce social distancing

Article about loneliness in Japan. Lonely people don’t spread the virus, which explains why Japan ahs not had a massive breakout like Italy, even though Japan is doing a very bad job of testing and contact tracing, almost as bad as the United States.

The reason why the epicenter for the virus is the New York area has been because of religious Jews. They go to their religious services and spread it at the religious services. While the modern orthodox types who live in Westchester and Teaneck have suspended their religious services, the Hasidim are still gathering together in big crowds, ignoring the virus. Very bad. While luckily, the Hasidim have very little contact with non-Hasidim, when they get so sick that they have to go the hospital, they will overload the hospitals and infect hospital staff.

The first thing that governments seem to go after is “large gatherings,” but evidence is that it’s the smaller gatherings that are the biggest vectors for transmission. In addition to religious services, family gatherings like wedding, funerals, birthday parties, etc. are common vectors for transmission. On the business side, meetings and conferences are also common vectors for transmission. All of these types events share the same characteristics: you have people packed close together in an indoor space and they are talking to each other. People eject virus from their mouths when they talk. Or sing or chant as is the case at religious services.

Restaurants where people sit at their own tables are probably not as important vectors as those mentioned above. Because people usually eat with people they know well like family members so they are not spreading it to new people. On the other hand, packed bars are bad. Packed subways are also bad, but not as bad as packed bars because people don’t talk to each other on the subway.

Although states with outbreaks are now taking things seriously and shutting things down, and that’s good, if they don’t do anything about religious services or family gatherings this will continue to spread. Plus, some states, like Florida, are NOT taking things seriously, and Florida will continue to put the rest of the country at risk. That’s why we need a coordinated FEDERAL shutdown. Merely giving advice that states and people are free to ignore, and often do ignore, is not enough.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 18, 2020 at 7:42 AM

49 Responses

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  1. Lion–Why not a federal shutdown for only the older population (60+) or maybe (70+)? and immune compromised. It seems like an overreaction to have a shutdown or even strict social distancing for the young. The younger people would get the virus but the hospital rates would be much less. Grocery stores, churches and synagogues, doctors offices etc, could have “elderly hours” for the next year before a vaccine is put forth. Also, it seems older people are not asymptomatic like the young, so if the elderly are sick they feel unwell and stay home. Hence they would be less likely to spread it to their peers at “elderly hour” functions. We are purposefully sending our economy into a depression. Yes, there would be a small downturn if just the elderly and immune compromised were limited for a while. However, younger people could still go to stores and restaurants, travel, and generally keep the economy moving so that the economy does not fall into a depression before a vaccine is approved. We should all be thankful this virus is not killing young, healthy individuals in significant numbers. A virulent virus like that would be truly terrifying.

    Apex

    March 18, 2020 at 8:31 AM

    • Young people would just give each other the virus, then go visit their old relatives and give it to them.

      My question is, how long is this going to last? My employer has started telling people to work from home if possible. This includes manufacturing staff. If most people go home, and it lasts for more than 2 weeks, the entire place will shutdown. Making deadlines will be impossible.

      My gym also closed. It’s a CrossFit affiliate in the middle of a major city. The monthly fee is high, mostly just to pay the lease on the space. What happens if this goes past a couple weeks, and people start cancelling their memberships?

      People are going to lose their businesses and their jobs if this keeps up.

      Lowe

      March 18, 2020 at 10:27 AM

      • A quesiton for all landlord, why advantage would you get by having your tenants fail and get evicted. Why not let them slide on the rent for a month or two and hope the economy recovers.

        The only thing that is going to help the economy is getting through the pandemic. There is no short cut and there is no cheap, half way solutions. We will all be better off when we all learn that the only thing that solves the economic is to reduce the epidemic curve and make it safe to go back into public.

        superdestroyer

        March 18, 2020 at 10:59 AM

      • I hope young people wont be reckless or stupid enough to visit their older relatives that they want to keep safe. Hopefully by the fall enough youngish people will have gotten sick and herd immunity will have kicked in. Either that or testing will have ramped up by the fall so you can get tested and know whether you a carrier (aka drive-thrus like south korea) before you visit relatives during the holidays. Then its only a few months until we get some sort of vaccine.

        After this two week period of everyone self-isolating, it should transition to just the 60+ self isolating. Let the young people keep the economy alive. We don’t need to tank our economy over this.

        Apex

        March 18, 2020 at 11:06 AM

      • Massive unemployment can be avoided if people would wear masks, avoid gatherings and unnecessary chatter, practice good hygiene, and maintain a safe distance. Those who can work from home should, and those who can’t should be allowed to go to work provided that they wear a mask. Companies can avoid a crowded workplace by having their employees work different shifts or on alternate days. These measures will require cooperation from everyone young and old, but it should keep the curve low. Now that China has got their situation under control, they can resume supplying masks and materials to the rest of the world.

        telling it like it is

        March 18, 2020 at 11:56 AM

      • If only we had masks, but there are no mask factories in the United States, at least not enough to supply the whole country.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 18, 2020 at 12:01 PM

      • Does America have a single advantage over China in fighting the virus? No mask manufacturing, dependence on imported pharmaceuticals, a political system that’s set up to resist centralized power? Is there a single thing that makes us think it’ll turn out better here than in China?

        Max Thaler

        March 18, 2020 at 3:46 PM

      • We have magic dirt.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 18, 2020 at 10:51 PM

      • My question is, how long is this going to last?

        It hit’s the peak number of infected in about a month and a half.

        MoreSigmasThanYou

        March 19, 2020 at 12:04 AM

      • I’m glad more people recognize the superiority of communism. People are best served by a strong state and central government. Bourgeois society by contrast is designed to make life easy for our oligarchy. What you call authoritarianism I call safety, health, prosperity, and happiness at least for regular people.

        redarmyvodka

        March 19, 2020 at 3:06 AM

      • Except that isn’t communism.

        It’s just state capitalism with apparatchiks as shareholders.

        Looch

        March 21, 2020 at 7:12 PM

      • Marxism is very egalitarian and progressive but also technocratic.

        In a Marxist-Leninist state the party owns all wealth & production.

        https://eradica.wordpress.com/2014/05/06/old-and-new-gods/

        redarmyvodka

        March 21, 2020 at 7:56 PM

    • Filling the ICUs with a bunch of young people would kill the old people who need medical care.

      Plus, I don’t want to go to the ICU. And I don’t want a .2% chance of death.

      What we ought to have is a national program whereby we pay very high wages to young, “brave” people like yourself to work in hospitals caring for corona victims.

      Alexander Turok

      March 18, 2020 at 7:24 PM

    • I would say we don’t know enough about the virus and it’s possible long term effects, even in the young. It would be a gamble with very high stakes.

      I don’t trust the data from China. They’d want to downplay long term side effects.

      Frau Katze

      March 18, 2020 at 10:16 PM

  2. Chassids are not dumb like the other dumb groups, but very goal oriented in a very aggressive way.

    I’m surprised that the city has prohibited their gatherings, which otherwise, anything coming from the Chassids turns a blind eye by the authorities.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    March 18, 2020 at 9:27 AM

  3. For all the fears, any evidence the pandemic is growing, in any significant way, outside the green-yellow border areas shown on the map?

    The thing seems to need something Wuhan Japan, Seattle, Iran, New York and Italy have, weather wise. For all their drastic action has either SF or Philadelphia had deaths or ICU cases?

    Curle

    March 18, 2020 at 9:32 AM

    • Uruguay has had ~50 cases, mostly from one woman who returned from Spain and attended a large wedding a week or so ago.

      GMR

      March 18, 2020 at 12:12 PM

    • Unfortunately, those red/orange zones in Vegas, TX, and NM are beginning to see cases. Big cluster of people hospitalized in Vegas earlier this week.

      Warm weather may help decrease spread but doesn’t seem to prevent it. We need to wait about 2 weeks before drawing any conclusions about how climate affects the spread of this thing as it’s still early days in the US.

      hdo

      March 19, 2020 at 1:27 AM

  4. This is interesting about the Hassidim, who don’t seem to have a theological reason that compels you to attend services every week. I think the only mainstream group that has such a reason is the Catholics and Orthodox, who believe that partaking of the Eucharist has salvific power. Maybe also Lutherans and Anglicans? For everyone else, going to services is a valuable expression of community, but there’s no reason you can’t stay at home, pray, and read the Bible on any particular Sunday.

    Jews had something like this back when sacrifices were performed at the Temple, but in Rabbinic Judaism, I’m not aware of any requirement like this; I feel they’re more like “low-church” Protestants (such as myself).

    You could also say the Muslim Hajj is another form of mandatory, crowd-promoting form of worship, but the Hajj is a once-per-lifetime rather than weekly requirement, and there’s no reason the Saudis can’t halt the Hajj for a year or two. I don’t think the Muslims have anything else like this — they gather together to pray but can easily pray wherever they find themselves.

    Wency

    March 18, 2020 at 10:10 AM

  5. >>Although states with outbreaks are now taking things seriously and shutting things down, and that’s good,

    The workforce of bars, restaurants, clubs, etc are largely comprised of proles. Proles can’t telecommute their job. Proles can’t go more than a week or two without a paycheck. Actions taken by government – federal, state, local – amount to economic warfare against proles. Proles can’t go more than a week or two without a paycheck. Proles need emergency cash payments of $10,000 to get through this.

    Daniel Heneghan

    March 18, 2020 at 10:14 AM

    • True, but equally devastating, SWPL parasites will go berserk by not having access to good food regularly.

      SWPLs by large depend on food preparation by proles.

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      March 19, 2020 at 12:00 AM

  6. So are all the Hasidic landlords — they own thousands of rental properties in NYC — still going around their buildings? That could be a transfer vector as well. And do big, unkempt beards capture and transmit more viruses?

    peterike

    March 18, 2020 at 10:49 AM

  7. Plus, some states, like Florida, are NOT taking things seriously, and Florida will continue to put the rest of the country at risk.

    Miami Beach has shut down much of the beach. I only hope it’s opened back up in time for “Urban Beach Weekend” over Memorial Day!

    Some of my best friends are black

    March 18, 2020 at 11:03 AM

  8. Our bishop canceled all masses in Montana. So that.

    Mrs Stitch

    March 18, 2020 at 11:16 AM

  9. Pithy post from iSteve’s leading Jewish commenter, JackD

    One could spin a very interesting scenario where Biden gets the nomination but dies before the election and his black female Progressive running mate takes the White House. If the economy really collapses and the disease is not checked between now and November, Trump will rank somewhere between Herbert Hoover and Benedict Arnold in popularity whether this is all his fault or not. Not to mention that a good portion of his voter base wouldn’t be voting because they are either dead or afraid to leave their homes.

    Marty

    March 18, 2020 at 11:41 AM

    • Trump wishes he’ll be remembered like Herbert Hoover.

      Hoover may not have responded to the Depression well, but he went from orphaned at nine to independently wealthy at thirty, and ran humanitarian efforts during both world wars.

      Trump is going to make James Buchanan look not so bad.

      njguy73

      March 18, 2020 at 12:27 PM

      • Stop social signaling your historical knowledge.

        Trump is the best president of the 21st century.

        redarmyvodka

        March 19, 2020 at 2:14 AM

      • Yeah, because talking about historical knowledge gets me social status.

        You think I’d be posting on this blog if talking about presidents got me status? No, I’d be too busy getting hot chicks.

        njguy73

        March 19, 2020 at 10:59 AM

      • “James Buchanan look not so bad.”

        There’s always Lincoln to make any other president look better.

        Curle

        March 19, 2020 at 7:19 PM

      • Who’s going to be our FDR?

        njguy73

        March 20, 2020 at 8:22 AM

  10. I know several people, two of which are physician, who said they have lost their sense of smell and that it’s really disturbing.

    I have almost no sense of smell so I couldn’t say. That allows me to sit near homeless people but I guess it’s dangerous for viruses avoidance.

    That to say we don’t know the future consequences of this illness on people who went through it

    Bruno

    March 18, 2020 at 11:49 AM

  11. Will Coronavirus mutuate?

    Just a Drifter

    March 18, 2020 at 3:04 PM

    • Almost certainly, now that we know we can’t eradicate it. But the mutations probably will happen on the span of years, not weeks.

      Viral mutation is why you’re at risk to catch the flu, colds, and other viruses again and again every year.

      Hopefully our immune systems will still recognize the virus even after it has mutated and so this pandemic will not happen again after this first tidal wave.

      hdo

      March 19, 2020 at 1:51 AM

  12. Florida Today, 03/18/20

    https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/18/catholics-statewide-go-without-mass-celebrations-church-indefinitely/2867421001/

    Catholic diocese throughout the state are suspending their Mass celebrations indefinitely as the nation moves to quell the spread of COVID-19, the new coronavirus. The decision was made following a conference involving the seven Roman Catholic bishops of Florida…The bishops moved to suspend all Masses – the thanksgiving celebration involving the Lord’s Supper or Eucharist – until further notice.

    Deplorable Prole

    March 18, 2020 at 5:04 PM

  13. Why exactly would West Virginia need to shut-down? This is a big country and there are a lot of places where an over-broad national mandate would make no sense. (You need to visit rural America more.)

    trey

    March 18, 2020 at 7:50 PM

    • Because there are still nursing homes in WV. And there are almost certainly fewer per capita hospital beds in WV vs big cities. So if there’s even a few nursing home outbreaks in WV, it could overwhelm the local rural hospitals and then younger people who need hospital care for other reasons could be at risk of not getting it.

      We’re trying to turn a possible tidal wave into something that maybe lasts longer but puts less strain on our healthcare system.

      hdo

      March 19, 2020 at 1:55 AM

  14. Just a Drifter

    March 18, 2020 at 10:11 PM

  15. If there’s a state that could be a piece of dung that drops easily into the abyss, it would be literally Florida on the map.

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    March 18, 2020 at 11:57 PM

  16. In Wuhan they tried various things, and the only one which worked was locking everyone inside their homes and only allowing police and delivery guys on the streets. If there’s no reason to think we can do better, then the rational thing is to head for that right away.

    Max Thaler

    March 19, 2020 at 2:36 AM

  17. Lion,

    Florida has reported that at least 19 nursing homes are suspected of having Covid positive people. That means that in about 10 days, Florida will go past New York as the place with the most Covid infected residents.

    https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/18/coronavirus-surfaces-in-19-elder-care-facilities-in-florida-1267712

    I hope that the few dollars made from not implementing control measures fast enough was worth it and will fund all of the response costs and economic damage that Florida will not incur.

    I suspect that within a week or two the media will be filled with stories of people quitting their jobs in health care rather than deal with the disaster. Why come to work and risk one’s life for people who insist of being stupid.

    superdestroyer

    March 19, 2020 at 6:33 AM

  18. How To See Germs Spread (Coronavirus)

    4.5 million views in less than 24 hours.

    Nedd Ludd

    March 19, 2020 at 8:12 AM

  19. MEH 0910

    March 19, 2020 at 7:29 PM

    • A prole family to say the least. Just judging by appearances.

      Ok, what, who's this again?

      March 21, 2020 at 11:18 PM

  20. For folks like Lion who doubt that blacks don’t go down with the corona, this guy seems to draw 1st blood, at least in the media.

    Yo, stay away from people is his motto.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/coronavirus-patient-speaks-from-hospital-bed-on-social-distancing-stay-away-from-other-people/ar-BB11gtoo

    Ok, what, who's this again?

    March 22, 2020 at 9:26 PM


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